Uhhh guys?

Uhhh guys?

Are we in a bubble??

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>obviously
the 2009 recession was never allowed to happen. Combine this with the recent surge in confidence and you have a precipitous and precarious situation for the US economy.

Expect a massive crash when the Fed decides to raise interest rates as soon as expectations evaporate of Trump being able to fulfill his promises

No, this is a result of quantitative easing. The money supply has been vastly expanded.

The only market which could be said to be in a bubble right now is student loans, and the nature of the industry, particularly that those loans are government guaranteed, makes it impossible for it to cause economic collapse. The government will just garnish wages and fill in the difference with taxpayer money. It's literally impossible for banks to lose on this arrangement or for any company to go under as a result of it short of government itself collapsing.

maybe in a year or so

Im not an expert but we are due

Yes and even Trump said so, that's why they have that trillion dollar infrastructure plan. Bannon and Trump have a bunch of articles about this they both expect a 'correction' so will be using this time to pump money into the economy to prepare for the inevitable crash.

Also US banks have much, much more capitalization than any other world banks so they will easily survive any such correction however the EU is going to crash and absolutely burn, especially Deutsche Bank, Italian banks, Portugeuse banks and every bank in Spain.

Yes. Look into stock buybacks and how pervasive it is. Some is normal because it makes sense, but it is at unprecedented levels and in almost all large companies. Theye are inflating EPS instead of actual reinvestment or paying employees more. All of it is building debt. If interest goes up many markets are screwed.

Yeah no shit, the 2008 bubble was never allowed to fully pop.

I hope you got your cash ready to buy at the bottom. Quadruple your money in a decade.

>Expect a massive crash when the Fed decides to raise interest rates
It depends on how quickly they raise interest rates and other factors

From 2004 to 2007, the federal funds rate went up by 3%. This had the effect of burying every person with an adjustable-rate mortgage who financed their purchase during the housing boom, especially since so many of those people had poor credit and thus poor money management skills to begin with. Rapidly increasing foreclosure rates spread problems to other markets.

If interest rates were raised several percent in only a couple years starting today, it would be unlikely to wipe out the housing market due to banks' unwillingness to give out subprime mortgages since 2009. It very well could take down some other market, though.

End the Rothchilds

bubbles are made of air, so yes

Student loans could very easily tank the economy:

>default rates spike
>government has to to pay off the banks
>Trump takes a look
>NO
>lenders left high and dry with the consequences of their stupidity
>bankrupt overnight
>spreads throughout the credit system

So buying gold & silver bullion isnt a meme?

Pop it like a zit.

If real estate tanks you could make tons on that too.

>Trump takes a look
>NO
This is where your scenario falls apart. There is no statutory basis for Trump to unilaterally shut this down. It would require an act of Congress and there is no way the cucks in Congress would go along with anything to shut down the gravy train to the Marxist indoctrination camps.

Want some TP? I gotta stash.

The bigger they are the harder they fall

Of course it's not, dummy.

No. This is MAGA.

They absolutely would if it was a choice between halting SS payments or picking up the defaulted student loans. And they wouldn't even think twice either.

Well the way it could cause collapse is if the debt ot big enough that the govt either couldnt pay debt, or had to go into austerity. Thats how that bubble bursts

A few years ago it would have been a good idea for the US banks, the goverment, and the general public to buy gold, but the Chinese and the Russians have way too much of it now now. At this point it's probably better to buy canned food and ammo

They have already decided that rates will be raised. This is all priced in,

The economy is super strong goyim. You should take out a loan and buy a brand new car. I've kept interest rates low just for you.

We are in a boom phase of a bubble because quantitative easing causes that.

I do not know what kind of assets are inflated though. Stocks?

What is the rationale that is leading to the optimism that is pushing stocks up? Is there a rationale, or is this just blind optimism?

yup, it will crash soon, can't wait

is this Silicon Valley's fault

will Pajeet be forced from his designated programming street?

The US dollar

>the Fed

I thought we were going to burn them at the stake?

Canned food and ammo are to get you to the border
Gold is to get you currency you can actually spend to get a plane/train/boat ticket out of the warzone.

You always need both.

I assume the expectation of Trump lowering taxes massively.

Brazil wil massively benefit from a stock crash in the US though. Rates are at 12% here. :)

>if it was a choice between halting SS payments or picking up the defaulted student loans
They would just raise the debt ceiling. The only condition under which they have to choose between Social Security Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) payments and defaulted student loans is the condition where we have total economic collapse, as in a collapse of government's ability to operate. When I say this, I mean things worse than the Great Depression.

See above. Government only has to go into severe austerity at the threat of imminent collapse.

Moreover, under such conditions, Medicare and Medicaid (both technically part of Social Security) would be the first programs gutted as they are the fastest growing source of government spending and debt. They also represent direct wealth transfers to private citizens, meaning that cutting their benefits would not risk collapsing the banks.

The student loan problem would more realistically be addressed with changes to future student loans. Retroactive changes and telling banks to bend over raises both large legal and economic issues.

This all assumes Congress doesn't go full retard, of course. It's always possible they could go full retard and crash the economy.

If the dollar crashes, this means we can rip the US apart by keeping interest rates artificially high? :3333

finance.yahoo.com/quote/JCP?ql=1&p=JCP
look at retailers, they are suffering, if this correction hits, will it kill the failing retailers sooner?

>When I say this, I mean things worse than the Great Depression.
Strap in friend, it's happening.

What if Trump's policies on immigration and trade were to lead to large-scale inflation? What would massive inflation do to the stock market?

KEEP BUYING!!!!

No no no no FUCK

I'm about to graduate, this can't be happening

Suck it newfag. If I had to go through it in 2008 now you do too!

Remember to thank Boomers for their fuckup of America.

yes faggot why do you think i invested in crypto?

all of Sup Forums should be in there i thought you cunts were smart

These problems go back to FDR and LBJ, both of whom were elected before Boomers were old enough to vote. Boomers were the first generation raised under that system and the horrific results are obvious.

>Implying I didn't suffer in 2008 either

>boo hoo I suffered back when I was 13-14
Bullshit

You think you suffered? You don't know suffering!

Not him but my dad lost his job and I was stuck in poor kid status while he had an emotional breakdown

I'm graduating in May and got a job with a smaller insurance software company. During the interview they claimed their product had an inflexible revenue stream since it was insurance and that market generally doesn't fluctuate (which helped them ride out 2008 without much of a scratch), I guess their claims are going to be put to the test.

If I lose my job within a year of graduating I'm going to be so pissed, what's the realistic estimate for when the economic breakdown will hit?

>You can only graduate as a 21 year old college student!

Don't outplay yourself, kiddo

watch, the chinese government probably back big bank loans that are comprised of failing student loans.

The student loan bubble collapses, which then causes the Chinese real estate market to collapse.

It will be glorious

Brexit is going to crash the British ec-

>they claimed their product had an inflexible revenue stream since it was insurance
It depends on the type of insurance, but if they weathered 2008 you're likely going to be fine.
>what's the realistic estimate for when the economic breakdown will hit?
No one could know for certain, but there are no obvious signs of a particular market being in a bubble today. The stock market itself has gone up rapidly over the past several years, but that is a result of an expansion of the money supply and not any particular market bubble.

If I were forced to guess, the next recession will probably be the result of a tech bubble similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Investors might suddenly decide en masse to pull funding from tech startups, perhaps social media companies and app developers, in San Francisco and elsewhere which aren't producing the profit they expected.

If you want to consider the consequences of such an eventuality, consider how exposed your insurance company would be in a Social Media Bubble bursting. I'd guess it's about zero exposure.

Of course not goy. You need to invest in tech stocks, with that last drop you're sure to clean up in the next rally!

>rubs hands

>lists 3 things
>1 job

Make up your mind Ned Nederlander.

>Student loans could very easily tank the economy

I never understood why students loans are the next big crash while there are trillions more still in car loans and home mortgages. Seems like it would just repeat itself.

This is not a bubble. The reason for growth has a cause, it is not brought on by irrational buying and investor hysteria.

You are seing a real cause and effect of deregulation and tax promises. Of Trump fails to deliver on either of those, the market will dip down 3,000-6,000 points. However, if he does deliver his tax reform and it's structured anything like he said it was going to be, the market will drive anywhere between 28,000-35,000, unless unforseen black swan events occur.

This is very simple to understand. A bubble is caused by rampant spending and investment, driving cost sky high, for little or no reason outside of lending and credit. The reason this isn't a bubble is because tax reform and deregulation mean companies will save fucking tons, increasing their earnings, and thus reflecting that in their share holders and companies annual profitability.

Don't be dumb, user. Bubbles have no reason or short term causes combined with gross lending and credit abuse. This is simply causes by companies will net more, showing growth brought on by decreases in regulation and taxes. This has a real cause that isn't driven by shady lenders and stupid people using money they don't have.

Yeah. Duh.

No time for the bubble to burst like the Trump time.

Yeah, I figured Silicon Valley will have a hand in it. Social media companies and startups are ridiculously over-valued and having trouble finding ways to monetize.

Trump is very open that success i usually borne of good decisions and some luck.

fingers crossed in the luck department.

I don't think so. The difference between student loan debt and normal debt is that you can't claim bankruptcy on student loans. This means the person will ultimately always be liable, unlike the mortgage crisis where people just took the credit hit and foreclosed and went bankrupt on paper.

So what I'm saying is the debt will have to be repaid. It can't vanish. Therefore someone will get that money unless people want worthless credit scores from 20 until death.

It's an entirely different system and the debt can't disappear with claiming bankruptcy, under any circumstances. At some point in their 30's or 40's, people general start to get their shit together. The money will be paid back.

Can we get a list of everybody Trump has proven wrong? I'll start:
>media
>Jews
>Democrat party establishment
>Republican party establishment
>economists
>experts
>academics

Maybe.

I mean Trump wants to increase investing, and so he is removing laws that the Obama administration put in after the Great Recession. Obama's laws prevented certain freedoms regarding investment and economic mobility in general, which limited growth but also limited the dangers that come with that.

I've tried to tell at least 3 friends to not buy new right now but they said they weren't worried and didn't listen.

Your leaving out the tax plan, which this growth is primarily driven from. His tax plan gives companies billions in savings, at least what Trump has laid out thus far. If he fails on his tax plan, the market will go down to 2015'ish levels. If he delivers, it's going to rocket, overshoot a tad, then settle and stabilize, but increase massively.

The key is in taxes, as that means companies will keep more of what they earn. This is a simple Net vs Gross dynamic.

What's the consensus on selling retirements, keeping in account so it doesn't get taxed, and then buying when it hits? Obviously if I could predict future I'd be insanely rich among other things but I've thought this thing was going to hit for over a year now.

The government doesn't really have a choice but to forgive student loan debt at this point. It's a double-edged sword.

DOW will hit 30k and by the time that happens, millions of normies will have their money in it only for it to crash horribly all the way down to 10k or less.

The jews are preparing an incredibly large crash.

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>Default rate spikes
>On student loans
Want to know how I know you have no idea what you're talking about?