>Fed prints 4 trillion dollars and gives it all to banks >banks don't lend it out so it never goes into the real economy, just bid up each other's financial assets to create """""""value"""""" >wages are stagnant >GDP/economic growth is stagnant >student debt, health insurance costs, federal debt is skyrocketing >labor participation rate, home ownership, worker's share of economy plummeting >stock market at all time """highs""" >Fed finally starting to raise interest rates after being near-zero under Obama's 8 years
All this sounds fucking insane, am I just being tinfoil?
Can any /biz/ posters or economics buffs reassure me that everything will be okay?
WSB goy here. Yes, shit has been fucked. NFLX is about 40 points too high. All the blue chips will fall slowly and recover hopefully, but if they go alot higher, the crash will be worse. NFLX must drop, and so must APple. Back to under 100
Kevin Scott
I can assure you it will not be okay
Brayden Howard
its completely fucked and cant be remedied without a massive depression
Connor Smith
So it's another tech bubble? I want to know which inverse etf to buy so I don't just throw my money into DOG or SH when the correction hits
Leo Watson
leave it to a leaf to rely on economic information from fellow virgin 4channers
you're all a bunch of pathetic niggers
Parker Anderson
What did KEK (pbuh) mean by this?
Luis Jenkins
Apple was only under 100 because of a split.
Bentley Williams
nah man, there is a big difference between qe and printing money and giving it to the banks. gdp growth is not stagnant but like 1% below historic norm student debts arent really a large part of all debts, and are not defaultable so u cant really get out of it like u could with mortgages federal debt- yeah thats kind of the problem, but not catastrophic because interest is still very low 5 of federal budget >labor force- i hate this meme, its mostly people retiring, look up labor force participation by type >all times high- well st5ock market isnt inflation adjusted and doesnt take into account the amount of total economy, if you look at PE ratios they are sl9ithghly above historic norms, but not 2000 levels
John Walker
Kek is not this economically illiterate.
Begone, impostor.
Tyler Sanders
OY VEY GOYIM
STOP ASKING QUESTIONS YOU DON'T OWN THIS WE DO
Gabriel White
So there's no impending gigantic depression and we'll be okay?
Christopher Torres
Having trouble sleeping at night huh fatass? Get a fuckin job loser.
Zachary Gutierrez
most probably not. Its much more likely that we will have continuous lower than 20th century economic growth for decades without any huge downturn
Tyler Taylor
The FED did think the Banks would lend more money to the public but the Government created more regulations which made it harder to lend money to people (certain requirements needed to be filled).
The problem is, after 2008 many people didn't pass the requirements so the cash stayed with the banks.
Leading upto the point where they started lending solely to big companies which used the money to buyback shares in order to increase their share value and thus their company's value.
Benjamin Lopez
And then Basel I, Basel II, Basel III. The banks couldn't even figure out how to abide by their own rules.
The criminals here are the governments for not shutting them down.
Lucas Torres
No it wasn't it has been hovering around 90-112 for like 2 years. It had shitty sales all 2016 and it will continue to lose sales this year (I hope). Tesla is like the only thing that isn't ridiculously inflated right now. I would expect it to be at 280
Yeah, maybe. I cannot explain why tech is up but biotech is still kinda down. Look at TEAM. trade it between 23 and 30. Resistance is at 31. Also a good long term pick.
Kayden Morales
We are fucked keynesian economics don't work and btw the banks own the whole education sector based around economics so very few experts will ever admit the FED is fucking us all.
Evan Butler
>Tesla is like the only thing that isn't ridiculously inflated right now. lel as if I don't work at a place that got all paid off to use electric nonsense and the workers couldn't give less of a shit (money making scheme)
And they have these designated Tesla car filling outlets, about six of them. Half are filled by company cars. The company never, ever, ever has talked about them since they were installed. No, only how to bring in more 3rd world dregs.
All the LEED shit keeps breaking. Got an email from the head maintenance guy about it having broken yet again this afternoon.
I'd like to like some of these things, but it just goes on and on and on.
Jaxson Morris
there are actually loads of economists critical of fed actions. They just arent retarded goldbugs who want usa to go to an archaic standard and don't pretend like their solution would have been the alpha and omega of economic policies/
William Stewart
Not to mention the hilarious deposits they accept for reserving cars. They are basically financing themselves with customers' money. Obama gave Tesla an hefty loan with almost zero interest rate too.
Michael Roberts
A massive depression would compound the problem, not solve it.
Keynesian economics works very well. Unfortunately governments aren't willing to implement it because they're scared of debt.
Charles Wright
This is why you can't afford a house. The left things Obama is brilliant for this. Another reason to kill the left.
Daniel Torres
you don't know. If the interest-rate rise all those banks and companies could get into serious problems.
Keep in mind that they used the 'free' money to buy back shares instead of investing it.
(((They))) probably thought Hillary would have been president and that she would bail them out. But with the Don it's a whole different world.
James Scott
I'm not saying I don't think maybe electric cars could be good, but they knocked down the dirty old car shop just down that was actually pretty honest for poor students driving shitboxes
>all-electric garage nao lol you think students can afford teslas? >goes bankrupt
Score another one for central planning.
James Phillips
Not sure if troll or if you fail to understand economics and the world we live in.
Juan Gonzalez
Why make a currency debt-centric, then?
Alexander Cooper
Trump will make Elon bend knee. Elon is well known to inject his own cash, their new Gigafactory is gonna revolutionize battery mass production, and they're gonna build another one in Europe. Tesla will be fine.
Oliver Cruz
Who's gonna pay this?
Levi Torres
>you don't know. If the interest-rate rise all those banks and companies could get into serious problems. I do know familylamily. It's obvious from how they can't play by their own rules.
Jaxson Morris
>Keynesian economics works very well. Unfortunately governments aren't willing to implement it because they're scared of debt.
Keynesian economics could work but it will never work because of politics. it comes down to this: 1. Spend and lower taxes when the economy is bad. 2. Rise taxes and spending when the economy is good.
No politician would have do step 2, because he wants to be elected.
> governments > scared of debt
Bitch please they love debt
Jonathan Phillips
The Fed doesn't print money, the Treasury Department does. The term "printing money" in regards to the Fed is entirely metaphorical as it is putting cash into the economy, though it isn't creating that cash.
Elijah Gonzalez
The fed's create cash. This does not mean they literally print money in their building but they do create money.
Gavin Walker
easier to access, more flexible to schocks
Michael Peterson
Funny part when they were building this building with a few """free""" chargers they had to go through hell and back to get enough amperage to run legitimate stuff.
lol pretty neat to watch them move in all those big transformers and backup generators, tho. Some dipshit in an escavator managed to take out both the lines that were supposed to be "separate lines" during the process. lol. These fucking retards have no idea what they're doing.
Brayden Davis
not really, the banks create money, the fed influences that
Thomas Reyes
>tech bubble >apple trades at 15 times earnings >be snap chat >lose half a billion annually >worth 25 billion
Shut the fuck up
Alexander Lopez
our childrens childrens children
nobody basically
Dylan Jones
Right. So they love debt. They love an economy that leeches value from everyone else to them by the stroke of pen. They love buying real world assets with IMF funny money.
Logan Sanchez
200 years down the road they're just gonna say "fuck it" and announce debt jubilee
Wyatt Watson
The FED sets the i-rates. high i-rates will lead to less lending thus no money creation low i-rates will lead to more lending thus money creation.
for fuck sake go back to you reddit bullshit site
Daniel Moore
Nobody, and it doesn't matter. Debt is healthy for any sufficiently creditworthy government, but almost completely without downside for the US. The US is the single most creditworthy entity on the planet. It's debt (treasuries) are regarded the "risk free" asset that all other assets are priced on by their risk relative to the US government. Because of this, there is no fear of the US government defaulting as that would cause the entire world to fall into a supermassive depression, so it would be easier for the debt holders to just take a hit. The only thing that would cause a problem would be the US not being able to continue borrowing, which will not happen in my grandchildren's lifetime.
On top of this, remember that the whole "China owns the US" thing is not true. The largest holders of US debt are the the Social Security Administration, the Fed, and US citizens. We really don't need to pay the debt down like fear mongers claim, plus the US government can borrow money at rates close to inflation, so it's almost interest-free capital.
Robert Fisher
>The FED sets the i-rates. wrong
Jeremiah Perez
Why don't the TV shows say that?
Jonathan Foster
>high i-rates will lead to less lending thus no money creation >no money creation >no also wrong. Youa re argueing from a price change. You are not taking into the account the natural rate of interest in the economy
Aiden Rogers
>natural rate of interest in the economy Explain this to the folks at home.
Robert Taylor
False. The Fed is "printing money" by injecting cash into the economy. It doe this by buying securities (bonds and structured products for the most part) from member banks. In theory, this will result in the member banks being more likely to loan that money to consumers which will stimulate the economy. The Fed isn't creating money, and neither are the member banks, they're just conduits. The money flows from the government (Treasury Department), to the Fed's governing body (government), to the Fed banks (gray area between government and private), to the member banks (private), to the consumer. The government ultimately creates the money, and because it's the US government this is fine.
Nathaniel King
sure. Natural, or sometimes refered to wicksellian rate of interest is a rate that fed, and most of central banks want to follow and target. What it is is basically the interest rate that would be optimal for the production of the economy. In a sense a policy above natural rate of interest would cause inflation and below it a contraction.
So when he was saying that 'the interest rate is low' he did not take into the account what the interest rate would/should have been. if interest rate was indeed too low we would have inflation.
Tyler Sanders
>The Fed isn't creating money Oh really? Where is it coming from?
>result in the member banks being more likely to loan that money Yes, back into the Fed to gain interest to shore up their insolvent books while keeping it out of normal spending so that it won't create too much inflation.
Anthony Foster
it will not be ok
Jackson Perez
For the folks at home, what is as "wicksellian rate?"
Christopher Gray
Because fear sells. People are afriad when they see a really big number and debt in the same sentence. Additionally, the average person is financially illiterate, so TV shows are forced to be financially illiterate in order to appeal to them.
Ethan Jones
by inflation i mean inflation above the target 2%
Owen Nelson
What's the correct target of inflation and what is it 2%?
Liam Wright
It is above 2%. Look at actual price changes, not the bullshit CPI.
Ryan Rivera
>injecting cash into the economy. It doe this by buying securities (bonds and structured products for the most part) from member banks didint know buying securities at market price is called 'printing money'. All they wanted to do was to expand the ''supply'' of assets the banks could lend, but unfortunately fell short because of lac of demand
Levi Ortiz
>fell short because of lack of demand Who didn't buy them?
Aiden Sanchez
link to a non conspiracy price indicator? all i've seen are in the .5% of CPI/PPI mix the Fed uses
Cameron Sullivan
>What's the correct target of inflation and what is it 2%? correct target is whatever a central bank sets it as, usually something achievable and non deflationary like 1-3%. people simply didnt want to borrow even at very low interest rates.
Jaxson Morales
> Oh really? Where is it coming from? I answered this, learn to read. The money is coming originally from the Treasury Department in some cases, but the direct answer is the cash the Fed is already holding onto.
> Yes, back into the Fed to gain interest to shore up their insolvent books while keeping it out of normal spending so that it won't create too much inflation.
That would be the exact opposite of quantitative reasing ("printing money). Once it hits the market, the money doesn't go back to the Fed unless the Fed decides to undo what it just did (never heard of this happening). The Fed does get money by receiving the coupon payments, and ultimately maturities of the investments it bought from the banks.
Take the time to educate yourself before talking on issues you know nothing about.
Aaron Watson
Yeah, you guys are doing great.
Carter Parker
CPI is a price change measure. CPI/PPI both measure the change in price of a "basket of goods."
People call it printing money because the Fed is introducing money to the economy and it sounds catchy. Ultimately, you are correct. Their operation increased supply, but due most likely to lack of consumer confidence there just wasn't the demand.
Kevin Myers
CPI formula has nothing to do with anything and hasn't had for years.
What if even just NPR's Market Place were to run a series on it?
Ethan Bell
So I take it you have no further arguments, then. Color me shocked that someone with your opinions can only scratch the surface of finance/economics.
Jason James
>CPI formula has nothing to do with anything and hasn't had for years. really? isnt it like 60% of inflation figure?
Sebastian Reyes
Source? That is literally what CPI measures, inflation. What about PPI and PCE which tell the same story as CPI?
Gabriel Cruz
Is this the kind of rhetoric """economists""" are trained to use these days?
Isaiah Moore
Discretionary income is the only thing that matters
>CPI stays low, we're rich! >Discretionary income reduces - hey wtf we aren't rich? But CPI told me we were?
Thomas Gray
You know how bretton-woods has ended. De Gaulle has sent the French Navy across the Atlantic to pick up the French reserve of gold and was followed by several countries. It was paradoxical situation when US has helped to rebuild Europe, but in the end gold moved from US to Europe. Paradox is also know as Triffin Dilemma. US abandoned gold dollar and signed the deal with Saudis. Ever growing demand for oil and expanding international trade created demand for dollars. But triffin dilemma stands still. And US ran trade deficit for all that time. Difference with bretton-woods you can't demand your gold back. So it should keep growing forever or collapse.
James Morgan
>world economy will crash soon >tfw they'll blame Trump
Julian Peterson
You didn't learn in university?
Why don't you put up your website with your own breakdown?
Luis Sullivan
seems like you're right to be concerned user
take a look at the S&P 500. The first two crashes are from the .com bubble and the housing bubble. We have twice as far to fall now with our 'recovering economy'
Alexander Smith
> doesn't understand economics > it's all a conspiracy where the experts make up economics because I don't understand
You sound just as stupid as those creationists who believe that modern science is a conspiracy and that the earth is actually 6000 years old, but scientists are suppressing this.
Anthony Miller
CPI doesnt really tell you about your well being, just how much prices for normal people went up in mostly nominal terms
Actually I did learn in university. I worked in finance extensively, which is how I know you're talking out of your ass. Evidently, you didn't. The CPI, PPI, and PCE all tell the same story OP was referring to. You have yet to prove they are somehow compromised or corrupt, so why don't you try that instead of just blaming it on (((them))).
Joseph Howard
I thought qe was printing money and using it to buy garbage bonds that no one wanted anymore from banks
Lincoln Brown
gee senpai at lea'st look at inflation adjusted figures, or better yet PE ratio, or better yet PE shiller index. ANd none of these are taking into the account the potential future falls in CG/dividend taxes
Evan Mitchell
CPI doesnt tell you shit... its a horrible metric
Discretionary income, focus on that if you want to measure the standard of living of somewhere. Whatever falls outside of the CPI parameters, but is still a necessary expense, will be lost from disposable income and leave you with your discretionary income
There's a reason NOBODY measures discretionary income, because if people could see how they're less and less wealthy every year they'd do something about it
With interest rates at historical lows the discretionary income people have left can't even be invested in savings accounts because the return is so shithouse
So peoples money just sits around, what's left of it, and gets eaten by inflation
Middle class disappearing into the low class but somehow everything costs the same and we should be stoked? Fuck me
Christopher Lopez
...
Josiah Thomas
They've all been rigged to fuck and back. I only glanced it from the 80s and the Clintons. You came in after that I guess?
Anthony Walker
It is, I'm comparing your arguments to the creationists I described as they aren't arguments, just baseless claims of conspiracy. I didn't know you can't read, now I feel bad for making fun of you.
Ian Morales
The International Monetary Fund warned about the amount of debt. Over 200% of global GDP and rising.
I can read if you can write, my friend. Present your case.
Angel Butler
How can a regular joe without a lot of money protect himself from the crash?
Nathaniel Carter
I just want evidence of your claims. If you can find a reputable source proving that CPI, PPI, PCE, etc. are all being rigged, then I will stop making fun of you.
Mason Moore
hes already protected, incomes tend to tan th least during the crash
Hudson Powell
Upskill, learn something that isn't easily learnt by a developing nation of Indians or Chinese
If you have no land and no capital then you can't protect yourself in that regard, but you can learn a skill that is sought after that poos and chus can't do
And don't do something that can be automated to fuck for god sake. There's gonna be mass unemployment, people will get food sure cause food is cheap, but they'll be renting from the landowners and so will their children and their children etc.
The only way out of that cycle is an education that allows you to amass capital, buy land, and educate your children
Connor Nelson
Then why did you read > You sound just as stupid as those creationists
and interpret that as me calling you a creationist? Riddle me that. While you're at it, you present your case. OP and I have both given you measures (CPI, PPI, and PCE) which all support his case, but your only retort is that are rigged. If this is so, then you should have no problem proving it, so do that.
Parker Howard
>CPI doesnt tell you shit... its a horrible metric itsa a horrible metric for well being, not for monetary policy or if you want to measure inflation! Plus you could very easily estimate discretionary income, since its just disposable income minus a bunch of expenses, even if they are not directly measuring it.
Cooper Williams
I think you're on exactly the right question. We should be asking these things. I would put a particular focus on CPI when it comes to older people.
Grayson Jones
not really they are bought VERY slightly below the market price from the banks.
Christian Harris
>The International Monetary Fund warned about the amount of debt. Over 200% of global GDP and rising. Yes, I wonder about this too. Debt stimulates the economy, as long as people are taking more and more of it. But I wonder how long this can continue, given how much global debt burdens are increasing. It seems to me that taking more debt as a solution is like drinking to cure a hangover
Kayden Hughes
Explain to the folks at how how the CPI, PPI, And PCE are calculated, and inculde a history of how these metric came about and how they have been adjusted over time.
That's how we do it in my field.
Carter Gomez
but... drinking does cure a hangover
Samuel Evans
Riddle me this, how hard would it be for a government to subsidize the products that are measured by the CPI to make it appear like they weren't increasing in price for consumers?
That's just one easy way to manipulate CPI. Another is by ignoring the market and assuming everyone is purchasing a small sample of products, when they're not.
This information is extraneous. These figures are accepted and used by the US government and pretty much all financial players. If you really want to know this information, then you can google it, but I don't need to prove to you that these measures are reliable as the entire financial services industry has already done so. I need you to try and prove the figures are rigged.