Can somebody explain me, what kind of leverage does UK hold in Brexit talks?

Can somebody explain me, what kind of leverage does UK hold in Brexit talks?

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reuters.com/article/us-britain-qatar-qia-brexit-idUSKBN16Y1YX?il=0
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Public_Policy_Research
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ur mum m8

$606 Billion in imports, 4th largest buyer of goods in the world. I'm hoping the EU cucks themselves so we can be their leading trade partner.

London's the business capital of the world. Most of Europe is utterly irrelevant.

Germany's automotive industry.

You sell them cars.

Massive trade deficit with Eu.
Basically, continental Europe is our China.
I hope they can't get a trade deal, and wet have tarrifs.
We'd make a fucking fortune.

As far as I am aware, only around 14% of EU trade is with UK, while on the other hand, Britain has more than 50% of its trade with the EU.
So it seems to me like EU has the bigger levarage here

Care to explain how?
As far as I understand, a lot of things you buy from EU are part of your supply chain.
So, for example, if you tariff the car parts you buy from EU, British cars will become more expensive and less competative on the global market

uk - financial service economy
eu - produces goods

tax da goods
gl taxing da services

>The top import origins are Germany ($93.9B), China ($62.8B), the United States ($44.8B), the Netherlands ($44.4B) and France ($37.6B).
3 EU countries account for 29% of their imports. I don't think the EU can hurt the UK without hurting themselves.

You would make goods more expensive to give money to the government. GG bongo.

Enjoy your sugar tax, smaller portions and Lloyds of Brussels.

>only around 14%

1 country buys 14% of all goods made in EU.
Gerrys don't think its a big deal......

My point was, UK can't tax EU goods without hurting its own export capabilities, since British supply chain relies on products from EU.

Sure it is gonna hurt, but having tariffs on 14% of your trade will hurt less than having tariffs on 50%. So I wouldn't call it britsh leverage

So you're going to "hurt" the EU by fucking British consumers over?

I can't wait till we leave

security intel

mentioned more than trade deals in the letter to europe lel

If I know Angela, she's gonna do something pouty that's only gonna hasten the Japan/UK/USA/Russian trade agreement (JUUR, or "jewer")

Even after Brexit, Both Britain and the EU countries will remain in the NATO, so I dont really see how this is gonna be part of the negotiations

>what kind of leverage does UK hold in Brexit talks
1. some trade deficit
2. some financial connections
3. NATO
UK's negotiating position isnt very good not because of what they can or cannot offer but because any deal would have to be approved by all the states.

Notice how you're not distinguishing between imports and exports.

I hope the UK will suffer for leaving the EU

i want nothing of the sort but its easy leverage

I don't really see how this distinction matters.
Please remember that British imports dont only include finished products, but also capital good.

So, if Brits put tariffs on car parts they buy from EU, then British cars will become more expensive and less competitative.

UK is in prime position, ackchually. Trump will give a sweetheart deal to prove that the EU (which no longer exists, really) sucks. The last ones at the table are gonna be stuck with the check, and right now it's looking like Hans, Abbalamd and the Turks (kek)

actually, you are gonna help UK

reuters.com/article/us-britain-qatar-qia-brexit-idUSKBN16Y1YX?il=0

Trump can't even pass a health care reform.
What makes you think Trump administration will be able to handle a trade deal?

3 million EU citizens that they can kick out at any time

Haha, it begins

Sorry chocolate bar

That's true, and is potentially a danger.
On the other hand, it encourages UK manufacturers to meet the demand. We can also try to find a non-EU source and negotiate some trade deal there. Or we can use the money raised by the tariff to help the industry.

Do you know that there are more brits in EU than EU citizens in UK?

The leverage of being the Greatest country on Earth

That failure was designed to blow up Ryan, nuke the Freedom Caucus and get the Dems in a bargaining mood (catastrophic care, etc). Duh

The empire is dead, get over it.

Nope, it's the contrary. There are roughly 3 million EU citizens in the UK and rougly one million UK citizens in the EU.
Saw the stats today on the newspaper

Hello, remember us down here? We still sell lamb and butter!

EU funding and a large import/export market.

services are also taxed ya eejit

sorry 1.5 million UK citizens in the EU

Untrue, Indonesia.

Most of them living in Spain

They coould threathen to make Scotland part of the EU

yeah, dont read newspapers. pic related. and this shows only registered citizens. the worst part for uk is that brits in france and spain are in great part pentioners who are too poor to get back and live in uk. on the other hand most of eu citizens in uk are working ppl who can work somewhere else. you can really drop immigration argument because it will backfire to your face

True.

Plenty of imports from EU, especially from Germany. Military and intelligence cooperation is probably the biggest leverage they have and Nordic and Baltic countries just set up an parallel organization for EU Battle Groups with UK. Germany and French aren't reliable partners in security matters. Germany is a mess when it comes to defense matters and French are only there push their own interest, their idea of cooperation bit bizarre, basically everyone else does what they tell and French give no fucks about partners interest.

London will remain important, but without any doubt its importance will be reduced as they will lose passporting rights to EEA, that is a big thing for financial institutions based in London. Plenty European corporations that run their global operations from UK due to good connections to everywhere will relocate to stay in EEA and same thing with lots of non-European corporations running their European operations from UK will do the same thing.

What UK sells to EU is services.... something that is potentially easier to fuck up without violating WTO guidelines than sales of goods.

Last thing Spain wants to do is to send the pensioners back. Unlike the rest of the unemployed parasites, they at least bring the UK pension into the country and pay for shit.

a self declared "progressive leftwing think thank" is not a very unbiased source.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Public_Policy_Research
I got my stats froim the UN, which while biased are at least a bit more credible
fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/

the EU doesnt work, the EU just robs the poorest members, how can you look at what happened to the economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and even ask that question?

I hope you know that Spain is not to decide. UK will have to make a deal with all states at once

Their food, as biological weapon.

Well aware, but if you think Germany can use the UK nationals residing in the EU as leverage, they've got something else coming. The "everyone negotiates" thing works both ways, and Spain won't agree to any sort of ban.

Honest question, how do you feel about UK nationals in Spain? Boring pensioners who spend their UK money in your country? Beered up yobbos who don't integrate?
I imagine on balance they bring in useful money (considering Spain's economy right now). Do the Spanish want them out?

>UK
>importing
>GBP expected to fall against USD and EUR
We ain't importing shit any more.

Kek'd hard, thanks user.
Hilarious delusions from a larp tier retard.

UK: The Anglo countries, including the US.

Need I say more?

You still dont get it. None will use it as a leverage bc both sides would lose. You also dont understand that default deal between UK an EU is no-deal thus no one can block anything. Thats why british position is so bad

Germany is primarily a manufacturing/export economy, Britain is primarily a banking economy. Both Germany and the EU bureaucracy are fuckups when it comes to banking, Britain has everything to gain by leaving and a lot to lose if it stays

I like you, may kek shine on you.

very little
but just because brexiters think they have some, it became magically enormous
the EU can absorb the blow of an hard brexit easily, the UK will have a hard time

if we don't get a good trade deal then one or more of the member states is going to have to increase their eu contributions to make up for the money lost. Sorry hans

>London's the business capital of the world

BritBongs actually believe this shit.

It is the capital of MOBILE finance.The number 1 thing banking, insurance,law,and finance demands is STABILITY. You fuckers are the most unstable thing going at the moment; uncertain Brexit, Scottish Referendum, Insignificant currency, Property bubble, etc. etc.

There is no industry in the UK, no actual physical exports that amount to anything "critical" to the EU. You cunts can't even feed yourselves sufficiently.

As you've seen with Lloyd's today, your economy is based on quicksand. All that money, and legal entities can just be moves to the biggest markets easily. Factories, mineral resources, higher added activities, these things don't move easily. A CFA with Santander who wants to live somewhere cheaper, does. Russian and Arab money does.

Money is digits on a screen, and will be transferred to a more secure area - Krautland, Medpac, etc.

The UK has one of the worst trade imbalances in the World. Take away the "service sector" (see "The City") and this trade deficit gets catastrophic.

You've killed the Golden goose. To bad you already shipped all your industry to China and Poland, and your IT to India.

I'm all for you lads having Brexit for Romantic reasons, but the idea that your economy is going to be somehow "unleashed" from the EU's chains is fucking farcicle. Also, tal 32.

By being the second largest economy in europe and easily the most influential nation in europe.

you can get trade deal with US, Canada, AUS or NZ. You know, the countries that actually want to work with you.

>the most influential nation in europe
you had to put that bait in your post, didnt you?

A 15% loss in your portfolio is not insignificant

Did you make this same post on Sup Forums?

>There is no industry in the UK, no actual physical exports that amount to anything "critical" to the EU.

UK is pretty major player when it comes to aerospace and military equipment manufacturing.

Name a more influence nation in europe then wotek.

Germany>>>>>>France>>Italy.

...

The US...kinda..

*was, Nigel.

well. kinda you are right

Give reasons why the UK is more influential in Europe than Germany for the past 15 years.

>Spain talking about economics

You have no currency of your own and you actually managed to go bankrupt after plundering South American gold

>Money is digits on a screen, and will be transferred to a more secure area - Krautland
what a joke, you know that Germans themselves hate banks and will buy cars and houses with cash and the German word for credit I'm told has something to do with shame or servitude

They actually gave a shit about their allies and didn't just pretend to be allied with other nations..

This

But given UKs departure, that are will diminish as well. Sucks for the brits I gues

Unless they work something out with the US, Canada or Japan. After all, they all worked together on the F-35 project, even if it's a bit..well...wonky. Japan is re-arming and will need military equipment.

>france
>italy
>influencial

Germany is the only contender due to its motor industry.

What is having a permanent position on the UN Security council.

What is being a leading member of NATO.

We were able to affect major EU decisions despite not even being fully in the EU is proof enough of our influence.

Well, the other thing about finance is a lot of it can be done anywhere. So Lloyds sets up a subsidiary in Brussel. I don't know how effective the EU's going to be in actually keeping the money earned in the EU. When you look at what a dodgy tax haven Belgium is, I wouldn't hold my breath.
Funnily enough, I've been looking to partner up with a Spanish firm to keep access to an EU institution after Brexit if necessary. It's not ideal, but what I lose there should be made up for by more UK work that Brexit will create in my profession (EU firms will probably have to use people like myself to get access to the UK).

>UK is pretty major player when it comes to aerospace and military equipment manufacturing.


Their defense industry is in trouble because of Brexit for 3 main reasons:


1)The EU has now finally been given a free hand in seeking harmonization and scale in European Defense industries, something they've wanted for decades. Airbus(which employ 15,000+ people) has wanted to move fully continental for years, but has been stopped by politics (they want to leave Spain as well fyi). Additionally, unless provided for in negotiations, the UK defense industry will be outside of tender obligations for EU military purchases.

With the new proposed EU army, and a harmonized EU defense industry, they've just created a giant market they can't tap, and a gigantic competitor they can't beat.

2)Most of the defense industry imports it's raw materials. Any fall of the pound will not help these exports, because the UK has barely any steel, aluminum,electronics industry left. They will have to pay more for any new raw materials. The Defense industry has warned that currency risk is their biggest worry. Not to mention that they will be politically cut out of any and all purchase agreements in Europe from now on.
3)Most defense/aerospace purchases are political. The British interests, were EU interests, so the EU allowed them to bribe the Saudi's, and the Saudi's hoped to get EU and UK influence for these purchases. Now, the Saudi's will get only diminishing UK influence for this. I predict we'll see much more purchases from German etc. weapon manufacturers from now on, as the rest of the World understand that the UK only represents itself and it's diminished sphere. I don't think the Arab's are too concerned about getting Barbados on board with it's purchases.

>influence is only about money
How jewish are you? USA has practically no money in EU and still has much of influence

>You have no currency of your own and you actually managed to go bankrupt after plundering South American gold

Great counter-argument.

We have the Euro, that keeps prices stable, and helps us access the international debt markets.

You have the pound, the unifying currency of 56,000,000 Chavs.

I wouldn't bet on that, m80.

>80% services based economy
>we ain't importing shit any more

kek

> So Lloyds sets up a subsidiary in Brussel. I don't know how effective the EU's going to be in actually keeping the money earned in the EU. When you look at what a dodgy tax haven Belgium is, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Well I only know what I read in the Times, but they are saying they are moving their M&A team there. Which would be big money. It doesn't seem to be just a subsidiary as the reason they claim to be moving to Brussels vs. Dublin (a much better legal system fit) is that Dublin didn't have enough international schools, whereas Brussels is full of them.

>EU Middle men.

This is definitely growing. The Big 4 are all setting up teams and consultants to try and get British business/legal entities to set up via Barcelona at the moment.

most advanced economies are 75-80% services including the USA, france, italy, UK...

it's not a bad thing

>USA has practically no money in EU and still has much of influence

The US has influence in Europe simply off the back of its military power and presence in Europe. This is backed up by longstanding co-operation between the EU and the US on a large amount of issues. However we are talking about EU countries themselves, so the point is moot.

>influence is only about money

Unfortunately the world doesn't tick on glossy eyed nostalgia. Money, Military and Political strength are the three main pillars of international trade and influence unfortunately these days.

>it's not a bad thing
its a great thing desu, but has one giant flaw - its very prone to any kind of crisis.

>They will have to pay more for any new raw materials.

Depends what country they are bought from - being free to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the remit of the EU could allow cheaper raw materials.

Further the cost of the raw materials are minor in the overall value of the finished product. When steel dropped from 15.2 Euros per metric ton in 2008 to 4.8 Euros per ton in 2013 it increased the margin of profit from 15.2% to 17.2% for car manufacturers.

So the cost of steel being 1/3rd its previous value increased profit by 2%.

So by that logic the cost of materials increasing by 20% for the UK would decrease the profit margin by 0.6%. As the currency has taken a 20% hit the product would be 18.8% cheaper than before the drop.

why do you think that?

imo it's too complex to boil down to something like that and it will depend more on the composition of the services/manufacturing sectors than of their proportion.

an economy with a large manufacturing industry that is based aorund oil production will be far less resiliant to shock than the a service based economy.

No. While BAE can be fucked with.... Rolls-Royce is simply too important for Airbus in both short and long term. After Brexit other option for high bypass ratio turbofans for airliners will be US suppliers at least for decade. There isn't EU supplier for such things as we speak and development for EU alternative will take at least decade.

>With the new proposed EU army, and a harmonized EU defense industry, they've just created a giant market they can't tap, and a gigantic competitor they can't beat.

EU army is unlikely to happen. I can list you couple reasons. Germany is good for selling second hand Leopard 2's, they haven't been able to do anything good since end of Cold War. French are there purely for their own self interest, they will fuck everyone for their own interest, couple good examples of that are Mistral deal with Russia and fiasco known as NH-90.

There are two reasons why Finland sent request for information for Dassault for Hornet replacement. First is that it is mandatory thanks to EU. Second is unlikely event that they will actually make offer that actually includes industrial cooperation instead of industrial sabotage that happened with NH-90.

Also Finland and Sweden just signed framework arrangements for Joint Expeditionary Force. A British led alternative to EU battle groups when it comes to crisis management operations.

M8, trade deals work both ways.

A China - EU trade deal is better than a UK -China trade because you've got less to offer them.

China is the number 1 rare earth material exporter, and now the no.1 steel exporter used in all electronics why would they give you a better trade deal than anyone else? Especially, given that you are a non-friendly nation?

That's just a frivolous example, but that's how trade treaties work. Just because the British state says "we'll give you free access" doesn't mean the other side will agree.

Look at the Swiss-Chinese trade deal. It basically goes like this : Switzlerland allows China Tarif free trade for 20 years (?), and after 20 years of that, China will allow Switzerland free trade into China. That's the level of deal you get with little leverage.


>Further the cost of the raw materials are minor in the overall value of the finished product. When steel dropped from 15.2 Euros per metric ton in 2008 to 4.8 Euros per ton in 2013 it increased the margin of profit from 15.2% to 17.2% for car manufacturers.

Thats true, because energy is the most expensive cost.

More so, defense has higher margins. The main element of loss will be in the political. British military goods will no longer have to be considered by the EU countries. British defense goods will provide no influence with the EU if purchases by Arabs (one of the big reasons they buy it). If they watch CNN they might even believe there won't be a UK in 5 years.

Furthermore, and not trying to be squirmy but cars and not necessarily equal to aerospace/defence because of the rarity of elements used, and high level of manufacturing required. I know for example aerobes Spain buys some form of steel from Japan for this reason.

>BAE can be fucked with
that's quite unlikely imo, it's too big a player and is heavily partnered with countries outside the EU (just their american subsidiary is itself a multibillion pound company).

>what kind of leverage does UK hold in Brexit talks?
If Cuckmany takes Cucknited Kingdom's economy out for stepping out of the Union, every single nation that doesn't suck money from Cuckmany will leave because fuck you and your economic blackmail.

enjoy your technology tax

When they demand cash we can say fuck right off.

When the German intelligence service realises all their agents are refugees and their analysts are all women, they will panic.

Hopefully we withhold information that leads to German "people" being killed

>British military goods will no longer have to be considered by the EU countries.
none of the EU countries are really in the market to upgrade their military, the 'EU Army' is never going to happen, not even Germany will upgrade their eurofighters or buy military ships they will never use, you forget Germany and EU countries have zero foreign military policy

Everything you said it correct, but to speculate on my side:


>EU army is unlikely to happen

We'll see. I agree that there may not be a fully combined defense force in the next five years, but things like harmonizing equipment, purchases etc. are part of the key agenda at the moment.

>Germany

With Germany, it's interesting to see how butthurt they are getting with Trumps demands, so it's hard to tell at the moment.

The French, are the French. I'd say they might need to be bribed, but some sort of unified aerospace, with the slight majority in France will appease them. Most likely a good chunk of aerospace from airbus' UK operations.

>There are two reasons why Finland sent request for information for Dassault for Hornet replacement. First is that it is mandatory thanks to EU. Second is unlikely event that they will actually make offer that actually includes industrial cooperation instead of industrial sabotage that happened with NH-90.

I'd like to believe, finally, with scale and better purchasing agreements, the EU can develop a competent defense industry. NH-90 (and the Eurofighter) are politics at their worst. Nothing connected to quality whatsoever.

>Also Finland and Sweden just signed framework arrangements for Joint Expeditionary Force. A British led alternative to EU battle groups when it comes to crisis management operations.

This is something that hasn't been talked about. Will the UK continue wanting to do this? Will Finland be put under pressure to not do this from the EU?

Too early to tell. But it seems given there is now EU battlegroups, NATO, and now British led XYZ, the cost overlaps are mounting.

services are always first to be cut down as in general they are a part of short/mid term contracts and its quite easy to safe money on them. Also great deal of them are high-level services which are not required during any crisis.
>an economy with a large manufacturing industry that is based aorund oil production will be far less resiliant to shock than the a service based economy.
well this is obvious. oil niggers always get fucked when something wrong is coming but in general manufacturing is more secure, although not so profitable.