27% chance of winning maybe more

be honest does she have at least a 37 or even 39% chance of getting elected?

Nope. It'll be just like her father.
Left wing voters will vote for Macron to avoid her.

>tfw the candidate of finance will be elected
>rich will get richer

Sounds great. Gotta be selfish once in a while.

>Left wing voters will vote for Macron to avoid her.
They won't actually

Extreme left, poor workers will probably vote for her, true.
But the mildly left, bobo part will votr for him en masse.

so she has like a 20% chance of winning?

Honestly? Fuck knows.
Logically, there's no way in hell she can win, as the last time the opportunity presented itself, her father was curbstomped and got 20% at the second round, biggest loss in our Republic.
However, recent elections have shown that everything can happen, so just wait it out Burgerboy. Useless to make predictions and shit, just wait for the day and see if it happens.

when will the final elections be

That's 18% more than Trump had

7th of May.

Nope. Not even close.
27% of votes in first round is not that big.
Especially when you keep in mind that you need a total of 50% of the sufferage to win the second round, which usually has a higher turnout.
The largest amount of votes ever gotten by the FN in an election was 7 millions.
You need at least 15 millions to win the second round.
They are not even close.

i'm just curious, did you think that england wasn't going to vote to leave the e.u and that we wouldn't elect trump as president?

It wasn't as divided as these elections. Pretty much everyone agrees that Lepen is shit beyond measure, except her hardcore followers.
Brexit had incertainty for it, and Trump his billionaire "sorta-outsider" thing going for him.

Lepen has jackshit. Her main leverahe is immigration and that's it. Litteraly no one endorses her economic programm.

Economists have endorse Melenchon's programme more than her's and he's an extreme left kind of guy.

Polls: Donald Trump has 0.5% chance to win.

yes but wont all the leftist not go out ad vote and all the hardcore voters will go out and vote for le pen

Americans are pretty fucking dumb though.

It's really not the same thing at all.
The Brexit referundum was possibly the only way for them to leave because a candidate for PM would not have managed to get elected on that platform alone because there aren't enough single-issue voters. In a single-issue vote however, this becomes much less of an issue since you are not voting for a person, a party or a full program but one mesure. (personally though, I had no clue, I don't know the UK and its problems nearly well enough to try and predict anything)
As for Trump, I didn't for a second believe he would lose. Hillary's campain was a disaster and ignored all the actual issues of the USA that Trump adressed. That was his strength and that's why I don't think he will end up being that good a president in the end. But I hope he'll prove me wrong.
The french election is very different in that unlike the two previous you mentionned, this is not an either/or situation with two possibilities. Just like in the Netherlands. Both the FN and the PVV are old political forces that are widely disliked for previous actions, that are known for their inner problems, etc. We know they were opposition parties for a long time and have just recently gone on a demogogue rampage to make themselves electable. Which is what makes it hard to take them seriously when they claim to be anti-system while very deeply engrained within it, anti-corruption despite being largely corrupt themselves. You can't change completely in such a short amount of time and it shows in their economic or administrative policies that they do not have a clear project.

Give me a quick rundown of differences between her and Melechont?
Because they way I see it, they're both eurosceptics, both towards EU and Euro as a currency, they are both Putin's buddys, and Sup Forums is always telling me that Le Pen is really socialist on welfare issues.

Again, they'll vote for Macron. He olayed his cards well, he managed to set himself in the sweet spot where you can capt as many voters as possible.
The hard part was being legitimate, something no one managed before.
And again, everyone will call people to vote for whoever is against Lepen at the 2nd round, here Macron, because everyone is better than Lepen at this point, even more so Macron who can really have a go at her for her bullshit economic programme.

>It wasn't as divided as these elections
Wow, your global self awareness literally needs to be lower than 0 to say something so fucking stupid

well i think le pen is going to win

Polls don't mean shit, especially in this election. Biggest fucking shitshow I've ever seen. Nobody has any clue about how we will end up because nobody knows who to vote for. I expect massive abstentionism and scratch votes.

This. We've been showed how unreliable statistics can be.

Melenchon is obviously more leftist, wants to tax the rich, yada yada, the usual thing.
He's put quite an emphasis on the environment, the animals, etc, and most importantly, his economic programme (the far left main problem in elections) is avtually pretry fucking sound.
I wouldn't try it, because there's wayyyy too much incertainty in it, like refusing to pay the national debt, borrowing en masse to help investments, etc, BUT there is SOMETHING, that may or may not work, who knows?
I have to admit the dude learned a lor from the last elections, he's got a great social team, he managed to build himself a programme that holds up.

Meanwhile, Lepen is still in the age old, "migrants steal our jobs, destroy the economy and are the be all end all of everything". Her economic programme is absolute garbage and she's a part of the system she denounces (daddy is a rich guy who created the party and gave it to me and we're in financial scandals up to our necks, but let me tell you how I'm not like the others!)

The day scratch votes are actually counted, that'd be one hell of a shitshow.
1st round might get loads of abstentionism. Not the 2nd round when Lepen gets through.

Mélanchon pretty much presents a program of large scale change and reform with
>constitutionnal overhaul
>tightening consumption networks to close the distance and make the country more self-reliant
>national solidarity by redistribution of wealth
That's what can make him appealing to some and repealling to others : his program is a bit hard to grasp because it is based on building anew.
The FN on the other hand is not aiming for reform (aside from a couple token reforms they grabbed from other candidates to get more votes) but focusion more on regalian issues regarding sovreignty.
Mélanchon is focusing much more in change from within, the FN is focusing on change from without.

Fucking frogs

That's a better way to put it.

scratch votes are counted since a law passed in 2014 iirc. Problem is, they still have no value. they talked about this in yesterday's debate; some candidates want to put a 50% threshold in order to invalidate a whole election.

No, it's going to be very tough but she still has her chances. She's our last hope before civil war or complete destruction of France

imo le pen will make it to the second round of elections and that is where she will win because the other guy won't get the turnout he needs

That's the opposite. The second round of the presidentials always gets higher turnout than the first.
The only case in which that could be a possibility would be Fillon/Le Pen because butthurt left-wing partisans won't show up, and even then quite a lot will just go and vote because they've developped the pavlovian reflex of voting against the FN when they can't vote for their dude or dudette.

Wtf is she running for now?

More than 50%, but the (((polls))) will always claim otherwise.

Important is that we keep fighting.

Thanks m8s.
I'll go against Sup Forums here and say that based on what you two described Melanchon sounds like the better of the two, even if he's a bit too utopian with complete overhaul.

lol you are French. I would probably shut the fuck up

Likely not, but there's one thing to take into account : dumb cretins like me who never voted, I am on electoral lists for the first year and going to vote for her. Maybe there is a 'silent majority' maybe there isn't one in significant numbers.
Problem is, if she is elected the same situation as with Trump in the US will arise : everyone will despise her and FN, it will be open hunting season for MSM, Soros will finance demonstrations, all of that in a country with a large part of angry muslims.
I think Melenchon will make a good score too, the only difference between him and Le pen is on immigration, they have both the same economical program : get rid of euro as a national currency, maybe keep it as a common currency inside EU, uncuck France from US, NATO, Germany and EU.
We are living in great times, tough, sad and worrying times but something great can emerge from that.

what if there is a silent majority that will vote for le pen?

She isn't winning, you must understand that she can't attract the same vote blimpf did. He came out of nowhere and campaigned mainly on dismantling the establishment, she IS the establishment.

People like to masturbate themselves over the silent majority but that never showed here.
I might see a silent majority with Macron, since he's supported by the medias so much, and trying to please everyone, but for Lepen? Naaah.

Nope the frogs are beyond saving and your country is no longer yours

She can't win.

She was even rekt in the debate.

it's over.

Macron will win.

Yeah keep tellng yourself that Piere as you and your loved ones are culturally enriched to non-existence

Don't worry, we'll be cunts and hate everyone equally until we die.

So far it has usually been the opposite and the FN has had the almost unconditionnal support of a very vocal minority. It grew significantly when Marine inherited the party and decided to use far-left talking point to steal their voters from archaic parties like the Communist Party, Lutte Ouvrière and the like that alienate a lot of their voters with their unionspeak. But it really seems as if it's the hard cap they can't grow from any furether.
Also keep in mind that France has much, MUCH higher turnouts in presidential elections compared to the USA. It usually circles arround 15-20%. There absolutely are some silent minorities that feel unrepresented by the various choices, but no majority in any way.

hurr
France has a higher turnout since abstension circles arround 15-20% meaning turnout is somewhere between 80-85% (for presidential elections at least)