hi Sup Forums
I was just listening to the radio and they were talking how there is more than a sixty percent chance of a world wide recession within like a year. how accurate is this? Where do they get their info from? Why are recessions like earthquakes? how do you prepare for such an event?
how do they define what a recession is?
buffet says the market now is not over-valued
i'm fully invested now
There are a lot of bubbles ready to blow. The student loan "bubble"(It's tricky since it's basically government backed subprime lending), subprime lending in general, decades of inflation and stagnant wages, and near zero growth in the economy.
We've been riding a high for 6 years now. It can't last forever. Schiller PE is also very high.
yes.
buisness boom cycle is about to reach the bust phase. to bad you didn't experience the boom in america.
basically, when the bust happens, that's when you want to buy right?
Since y'all basically love money and nothing else, how can we prepare for such a bust?
>Where do they get their info from?
Depending on the media station, their federal/Wall St. colluders can make the economy do what they want. Globalists can manipulate the economy easily, through controlling cash flow and public perceptions.
No, start buying and selling now while we're in this bull market. If it busts, it'll be a bear market for a very long time.
You can buy -1 ETNs on indices like S&P500 or EuroSTOXX50. You can buy gold or silver (but it would have been better to already have bought it on March 15. You can open a bank account in Switzerland and exchange your dollars for CHF and keep them there. You can buy land. You can buy VSTOXX or VIX calls (maybe a bit late) and sell them when they go up.
>it couldn't possibly get any worse
>buy
>gets worse
>lose everything
at the end of the bust.
when it has dropped to the bottom and is beggining to rise.
don't buy anything to expensive. don't start a morgage. you may get fired in the coming year because of the bad economy.
be prepared for 18 months of hard times (some people will get out of it earlier then or even avoid it but you dont know if you will or won;t)
Buy low and sell high. Generally speaking, buy when other people sell and sell when other people buy.
>prepare for 18 months
most of Sup Forums isn't prepared for 18 days unless their autism neet bux comes in the mail on time
I believe we're mainly in a stock bubble created by a combination of instability in Europe and overly low interest rates.
You're in charge of some huge investment account. You need to put the money somewhere. CDs? No, interest is worthlessly low. US Bonds? No, interest too low. European bonds? No, too unstable. American stocks? Ding ding ding.
With no other real place to put the money, it has all been going into stocks and hyper-inflating a lot of companies that are considered long-term stable with a chance for growth, like Amazon, Netflix and Tesla -- all three are great examples of good companies that now have tremendously overvalued stock just because it's seen as a safe place to hold money.
The risky part is going to be raising interest rates. If they raised them to 5% tomorrow, the whole fucking stock market would implode in epic fashion. It will start with people wanting to move money to safe interest-based loans but it'll end with nobody wanting to be left holding the bag as the bottom drops out of the market.
The only way I see to avoid this bloodbath is if Trump (and, rather more importantly, Congress) do so staggeringly well that economic expectations can actually rise to meet where stocks really are and the P/E catches up on the E side.
t. guy who watched wolf of wall street once
I watched your mother once, in a strip club.
Thanks user. I'm a NEET but I have 0 debt and $5k in the bank. What would you recommend?
this is Sup Forums
the serious board.
/r9k/ can't last a week without tendies but Sup Forums can last anything
We just had one. Fake news.
Save your money now, buy everything when is everyone else is selling
>Sup Forums is a serious board
inb4 a bunch of 16 year olds are excited about digits
5k is nothing. youre broke as shit
you guys should invest in the israeli stock market.
last time it was rather weakly afected by the crash
Oh shit
Anyone who says that they know what the market or economy is going to do in the future isn't just bullshitting you, they're trying to sell you something. If a Wall Street analyst goes on TV and says the market is going to go up so you should buy, it's because he wants to sell you the stock he already owns.
Disclaimer - I've been reading Zero Hedge daily for about six years, so I am beyond cynical, but I believe realistic, about macroeconomics and the stock market.
>past performance is not indicative of future results
He's been wrong multiple times, so has Soros.
0 debt and 5K savings is still better than 90% of people that are financed over their eyeballs and making minimum payments every month
It's definitely going to happen. The measures taken after the last recession and the one before that and the one before that were all temporary.
Look around at your local economy and tell me if anything seems off about it. I'm in Vancouver and the government is desperate to keep this real estate bubble going beyond all reason because it's keeping a huge chunk of the population employed.
It's not healthy. The economy is not healthy. A recession has been imminent for years.
we;re in a recession now
the bond market crash will come in summer
that basically means a governmental collapse
but you should be more worried about the ice age and food production
>Riding a high for six years.
>The economy has been total shit for normies since 2008.
I suspect that this generation has lowered their expectations considerably.
>not having all your money in Dogecoin
Already am with my tax dollars, when can I expect a ROI?
This
Also we've never gone more than 10 years without a recession, it's been 9 since the last one.
...
This is actually true. If I remember right for ages 25-35 the average net worth is something like 2k. Which is pretty fucking pathetic.
Make sure you take out all the loans you can goy!
>we;re in a recession now
are you really going to believe a guy who doesnt even know what a recession is?
>wait a year to get 8% return on $200
>transaction fee is $20
;_;
you are invested with your tax dollars in RTN, BA, GD, you dumb motherfucker
Maybe if they rent... I would be willing to bet at least 95% of people 25-35 have a negative net worth.
>owe more on a car than its worth
>student loans
>credit card
>maybe have a house but havent built any tangible equity, just fighting interest
Yes. Because of the current currency standard that we have, fiat, money is prone to value loss. However, if we backed our money by gold, we wouldn't have an issue with value loss because gold, or even any other precious metal, holds its value.
Well, looks like I'm richer than 95% of people. I have a net worth of 500$.
>value loss
>2% inflation
pick one
>holds its value.
doesnt mean it isnt volatile as fuck in the short run
>government gives my money to private defense contractors
>I see a ROI
That's not how it works you dumb mother fucker.
wew lad all these responses.
cool
but is there one specific thing someone can look at and say "the collapse is coming",, I mean what do those people say who predicted the recession before? how did they see it and how did many others not?
The NBER defines when a recession happens after the fact.
Truth Is no one knows except in retrospect because business cycles are impossible to predict.
Renting feels pretty good desu. I'm not going to buy a house until I can either pay it off or the plan is to rent it out.
I avoid debt like a plague. Only time I ever took a loan was on my car. Which was only like 5k after I put 10k down on it.
>Implying I wouldnt steal 18 months worth of food and other stuff.
>Implying I don't already have a small stockpile
>Implying I havent learned every street, every house, every private garden in my entire town.
>but is there one specific thing someone can look at and say "the collapse is coming
if there were collapses could be prevented.
>I mean what do those people say who predicted the recession before?
They mostly got lucky, or were predicitng a recession all the time, like peter shiff. There are always people predicting a downturn.
+ not all recessions are the same, for all we know the next one could be the collapse of US fracking sector due to persistant drop in oil prices making it unprofitable
Collapse with be politcal in nature, not from central banks. Ignore all others
renting feels okay.jpg
housing market is bound to crash again and unless you can sit on a place for years and hope to break even i wouldnt fuck with trying to make money off real estate.
There has been a recession since 2008. There really was no recovery. And now we are heading into a depression. It will be worse than the last depression, governments and families just don't have enough savings to get them through. Watch for W.W.3 being pushed in the middle east and North Korea. This way the central bankers will have an excuse as to why their financial system is coming down. They won't take the blame
>>The economy has been total shit for normies since 2008.
Hey man, I don't know how you define "normies" or economic performance - but the market has performed really well since 2008.
He's the S&P market returns:
>2016 11.92%
>2015 1.31%
>2014 13.81%
>2013 32.43%
>2012 15.88%
>2011 2.07%
>2010 14.87%
>2009 27.11%
That's pretty fucking good. If you have money invested - you made a bundle. If you didn't, god help you. But don't tell me that the economy is performing poorly.
there is no way to put a % to that. the ones that do make estimations based on historic data but that's completely unreliable.
The Fed is raising rates is one thing and typically oil begins to spike up is another.
The upcoming crash will be far worse than the last because Americans have less assets and purchasing power than they did the last time. The government and the Fed inflated our money a metric fuck ton and bailed out their friends. We're fucked.
The question is, are they going to let capitalism do what its suppose to do and allow the whole market to crash with no survivors, or prop it up with QE and bailouts again? The former is the best option for everyone, but makes the current government look bad because SHTF. The latter option is by far the worse and kicks the can down the road, but the current government looks good because the economy is propped up.
>If you have money invested
Most Americans don't
Damn straight
It'll happen soon. Don't worry.
you can't predict the bottom or how much time it will take to recover. if something crashes and you buy and then it crashes again you might get scared and sell with a loss.
Same user here. Someone please help I'm scare
War is always the best option in these cases, but the problem this time around is nukes.
Retail stores going bankrupt left and right. Tesla worth more than gm. Amazon worth hundreds of billions on minimal earnings. Everything is awesome!
dem quads
OY VEY
Have you paid your taxes for this quads?
This
and all of that is propped up with bailouts and QE. Which is why as said, the next one is going to be far fucking worse.
Economists are notoriously bad at predicting recessions. The real redpill is that the FED tries to control the business cycle and there will be a recession soon because the FED is raising rates and shrinking their balance sheet. This will cause horrific consequences that will then be blamed on Trump and nationalism
>tfw things get so bad we have a civil war
I can only hope, but yeah it's just a matter of when, rather than if
I'd watch the European banks, DB and the Italian banks especially
DB is going to declare bankruptcy sometime this year causing a banking crisis
for every economist that predicts one way there's another who predicts the exact opposite. when something happens, the one that predicted it gets famous but it might just have been blind luck
something else interesting related to the overly low rates is instead of investing in the business these large cap stocks are issuing bonds at very low rates of interest and using the money to buy their own stock off the market. This means P/Es are even worse than they appear because companies will have to resell their equity into the market to raise funds when they start defaulting on bonds
Bullshit, I've been neeting because of the coming collapse for about 4 years, they'll keep on digging their own grave for atleast 10 more years or so.. maybe more, depending on how long they can keep the game up and running.
>Economists are notoriously bad at predicting recessions
>let me without even a basic understanding enlighten you what will happen
Recessions are hard to predict because they always happen different way and some variable that worked in the past will probably not work in the future-see lucas critique.
And raising rates isn't going to be disasterous, in fact markets see it as a positive. You have to understand that fed doesnt just '''set''' interest rates at random, they attempt to mimic the natural rate of interest- if they would deviate too much from it we would truly see consequences on the economy. The simple fact is that natural rate of interest has been going up in the past 2 years and the fed is trying to accommodate that
this
some people are truly better at it than others but the best do not give out their predictions for free so you would never hear it on TV or radio. If you sell stocks and bonds when interest rates start going up you might miss the blow off top but you will never get wrecked. That's my suggestion
The only DB can avoid bankruptcy is if they receive a massive bailout from the German gov't and that alone could lead to a banking crisis among the other european banks in Italy and Spain who are shitty as hell right now
They literally don't have enough cash to pay their bills and fines this year
Yeah but there is nothing natural about a central authority setting rates. Especially with QE and how it's been massively abused for the past 8 years.
wow a leaf what a surprise. You reallt should not comment on things you know nothing about. It is impossible for nominal interest to be 0% without FED intervention due to the time preference of money. The yield curve looks nothing like how it would look without FED intervention through QE. The FED owns 25% of the US bond market. Interest rates during Obama's term were the lowest in history. Negative rates in Europe could never happen naturally. Really just pipe down and stop wasting people' time
>They literally don't have enough cash to pay their bills and fines this year
meh bailots aren't really that bad for the banks in my opinion. All they are are the emergency loans from the government to keep them liquid. Banks have more than enough assets to meet their money, the major problem is that they will rrecieve it 10-20years from now because of mortgages. The real problem becomes if they are not only in the need of bailouts, but that even if you bail them out they will not be profitable in the long run.
Just checked the latest (dutch) news on DB, they say DB just got a load of money from whatever. Besides, whatever happened to those people in Saudi that poured money into the bank as if it was oil?
I mean yeah their stocks have dropped from 17 to 15, but since it was around 10 sometime ago things are still looking decent.
-
Still though.. Here's to hoping it'll crash and burn.
i agree that there are extremely smart people with great opinions based on good information. but even they can end up loosing a lot when true uncertainty is involved. the ones that always win they do it because they know how to arbitrage or rig the market
DB will raise capital by selling equity. DB will go bankrupt but you will see it in the stock price and CDS before it happens
Top KEK, but hes a Jew, so he has an exemption.
Damn straight
the modern stock market is completely irrelevant to the real economy
>Yeah but there is nothing natural about a central authority setting rates.
I hear you, but this is the world we live in. My point is that the fed is constrained at setting interest rates- if they set them too low we would have inflation- too high deflation and recession.
>Especially with QE and how it's been massively abused for the past 8 years.
nothing really special about QE its just borrowing long term safe securities instead of short safe term. It has a lot of mystery about it in the conspiracy world, but its really nothing that special.
> is impossible for nominal interest to be 0% without FED intervention due to the time preference of money
you mean real, right?
and it is since the Fed only sets the interest that banks are paid for their deposits at the fed. If they set the rate at 0% or at slight negative they are incentvizing the banks to lend more. The interest rate for consumers is below 0% always.
>The yield curve looks nothing like how it would look without FED intervention through QE
its almost like they achieved their goal
no I mean exactly what I said. Nominal rates can not hit 0% in a normal market due to the time preference of money. Real rates can hit 0% depending on what inflation is at.
>The interest rate for consumers is below 0% always.
Are you 12? Interest rates for consumers have only been 0% since the last financial crisis. Banks got bailed out and the bailout funded what is known as excess reserves. This means unlike in the past where banks competed for deposits by paying consumers interest on savings accounts, now banks have no demand for money and pay savers 0-1%
>It has a lot of mystery about it in the conspiracy world, but its really nothing that special.
Are you retarded? Be honest please
QE is basically just money printing though. I'd argue that, that isn't at all a safe long term plan. If anything its short term influx of liquidity for short term gains (of which aren't shared among the general public). I mean this shit is basically the same gambit that was run in Rome via debasing their currency. Inflating the ever living fuck out of our money making it worthless in the long term.
>0% always
sorry meant above
>Nominal rates can not hit 0% in a normal market due to the time preference of money
nominal rates can easily be negative during deflation. I think you are mixing them up nominal=real+infaltion
Fucking this. The absolutely disgusting inflation happening with our money isn't even offset by interest from putting it in a bank.
Somewhere down the line we forgot the agreement we had with banks.
>I give you money
>you lend it out
>you make money
>you pay me in interest for using my money
>I avoid getting raped in the ass by inflation
>QE is basically just money printing though
its really not, its selling money at market prices. and there is nothing new about QE its simply extending selling buying short term securities to long term securities
Central banks exist to prevent deflation so that never happens. There have been negative real rates for years but never negative nominal rates in the US. Onlt in Europe. Real = nominal - inflation. When has there been deflation recently? There has only been the perception of insufficient inflation but few investors believe the inflation stats anymore. Are you just making shit up?
double followed by quads from a kike on pesach!
This means.... something....
Are (((they))) KeK's oldest devoted?
Avoiding debt is a new thing desu. I'm in the same boat, mainly due to watching my parents' marriage fall apart over money.
...
Yea a lot of people in our generation avoids debt hardcore. Just rent everything.
It's a subsidy for borrowers and a total scam. National and local govts in the west are so broke that if interest rates normalized they would be insolvent. If you notice govts are trying to ban cash because deposit rates and bonds cannot go negative until cash is eliminated. A future happening to keep an eye on is these ultra low rates have made almost every pension in the US trend toward insolvency
This guy is right
t. investor
also
>quantitative easing
>Nominal rates can not hit 0% in a normal market due to the time preference of money
i was pointing out that your statement is factually false
>selling money at 0%
Yes, it is money printing.
There are still a massive amount of people in our age group (assuming millennial) up to there eye balls in debt.