KS-4 Special Election Thread

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A special election was held on April 11, 2017, to determine the member of the United States House of Representatives for Kansas's 4th congressional district after the incumbent, Mike Pompeo, was nominated by President Donald Trump as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and confirmed by the United States Senate.

>Republicans are worried Trumps low apporval ratings will elect a democrat in the district for the first time in 20 years
>Trump won KS-4 by 31 points

Results: decisiondeskhq.com/results/kansas-4th-congressional-district-special-election/

Other urls found in this thread:

nytimes.com/elections/results/kansas-house-special-election-district-4
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

James Thompson (Democratic) 59.9%
Ron Estes (Republican) 38.5%
4% reporting now.

Can Dems hold their lead?

Do we know what precincts are reporting? Are they all in Wichita? It would be pretty ridiculous if Republicans lost this seat.

So far
>Pawnee
>Barber
>Butler
>Sedgwick

Lots to come still, but this lead is pretty interesting.

Also shout out to the retards on this board not realizing this election could foreshadow the midterm election in 2018.

Reps already have 40%. Looks like they are going to end up holding the seat

Anything less than a 20-point win for Republicans in such a red district is an embarrassment, given that Trump won by 27.

For Democrats to actually *win* the seat would be an utterly ludicrous upset.

If Dems actually win this seat, that's a full-on happening.

If they get within 10 points, that foreshadows Georgia 6 going blue.

James Thompson (Democratic) 58.0%
Ron Estes (Republican) 40.4%

12% Reporting

My guess is they barely hold.

41.6% now

Get in here people. This is an actual election for a House seat. It's a bigger deal than arguing about who is white.

43.1% for the Republican

Bernie bros taking over the dem party and purging the Hillary shills. New deal 2.0 coming, get on board cucks

Estes catching up as election day vote coming in

Lead shrinking greatly

...

44.1%
I wouldn't get you or your neogaf buddies hopes up

Bumping out of interest.
in a shill thread some anons were talking about turnout and it seems like Estes is going to win; there are a lot of rural and suburban retards whose votes haven't been counted.

Yeah looks like Estes will pull it out, Rural counties are swinging hard for him.

Christ it's like you people don't realize democrats start strong.

Literally every expert thought Estes would win, the question was if he'd win by more than 20 or not. Trump won the district by 27%

My gf voted for Thompson, Sup Forums. What do? Is it time to put her down?

Losing isnt strong

That's not universal rule, it just depends on what part of a state/district is counted first. Hillary started ahead in PA because Philly is counted first, Trump started ahead in VA because Northern Virginia came in last.

Either way, the GOP will win this district much less than the 40% margin from 2016. This is the same thing that happened with special elections in 2009 and 2010, with Republicans winning Ted Kennedy's former Senate seat.

Some dipshit in another thread told me that only rural and suburban retards vote early lmao

This. The urban areas are always reporting first for some reason
>Texas
>blue
>FUCK LONE STAR BEER REEEEEEE

This is also true, opposition parties do well in midterms/specials

Should republicans be worried about the other special elections in Montana and Georgia considering how close this 'safe' seat is?

Trump and Bannon need to get their shit together and campaign...

The fact that Democrats are even in the same universe as winning Kansas 4 should be a major warning for Georgia 6 (and 2018 generally?).

DNC spent 0 money or energy here. If it's close, expect a lot of leftist grumbling about Democrats blowing the race.

Yep. Trump is going to be a lame duck. He fucked the Republicans BIG TIME!

Montana not so much, I knew a guy who worked for the campaign there and he didn't have anything positive to say about whats happening on the ground there. Georgia on the other hand could swing D.

I don't know about Montana that well, but Republicans should've been very worried about Georgia yesterday. They're getting slaughtered in early vote (which isn't all that unusual, but still).

Depends. Estes by all accounts ran a weak campaign up until earlier this week and is associated ideologically with Kansas' very unpopular governor.

Regardless of how the results come out, tonight will be an object lesson in never, EVER being complacent with campaigning.

...

Well I can't argue with those digits senpai

Who seriously wastes their time on a special election with write ins?

Absolutely, with how unpopular Trump's presidency has been along with the AHCA debacle republicans have been sweating.

"HEY I WROTE MYSELF IN TEEHEE"

Montana leans red but votes Democratic all the time; re-elected a liberal Democratic governor last year even as Trump won the state by 20 points. It's definitely at risk.

He is probably going to win with near 20%. All your analysis are shit

Fuck you for beating me

Still a 20% swing to the Democrats from last year

Wow Estes is doing so well

Well last year nobody could stand Hilary and this year everyone is already disappointed with Trump or sick of him.

>>Regardless of how the results come out, tonight will be an object lesson in never, EVER being complacent with campaigning

RIP Martha Coakley, who somehow managed to lose as a Democrat in fucking Massachusetts by being too cool to campaign, thus ending all chance of Obamacare having a public option.

Soros et al are going to throw gorillians at elections like these at the midterms. Going to get ugly.

>Shills trying to hold out by shitposting in a Kansas special election thread that the Republicans are going to win by 20%

Fuck off nigger.

The dude could just be a dick. We voted in a Democrat as our representative in the state house here because his Republican opponent had become so complacent he would get drunk and yell at people in bars every Saturday.

god voting machines not working

>120693387
Welp everyone go home. You heard the shill.

Nice good to see this thread, I was afraid no one was going to pay attention to this.

Nate Cohn and 538's Harry Enten both basically calling it for Estes.

Faggots we're talking this up all day like Dems were going to take it and it was all over come 2018.

Bitch If they're ahead by only 20% it's a bad sign for other more competitive districts considering in this district it should be almost 30% ahead normally.

>502 Bad Gateway
D-did we kill it

half the districts reporting and its neck and neck. so excited for the dems :) would be such a huge win!!!!

Estes finally pulls into the lead

>Bitch If they're ahead by only 20% it's a bad sign for other more competitive districts considering in this district it should be almost 30% ahead normally.

Well I mean if you run a shit campaign and make yourself an ideological fellow-traveller to one of the most hated governors in America like Estes, sure.

Remember that all politics is ultimately local.

Estes takes the lead

Dems ahead by about 200 with about half the count done. Lol. This makes me nostalgic for the murder of 2016.

checked em

Noice.

True, True.
But is still wouldn't be a good sign for elections to come if it does happen it would show dems that there is blood in the water.

>Magical numbers amphibian.jpg
There will never be another 2016 will there guys?

honestly the damage to the reds is already done. Narrative is already set...
"What if the DNC actually backed this race!!"
"Congress will be blue!!!"

Or it will be a sign for the Republicans to get their asses in gear and pass an infrastructure bill, the wall, and an Obamacare replacement.

Now that the Republican is going to win I feel bad for the Democrat.

That would be good too I hope they do all that regardless.

DNC should have backed the race honestly. RNC even jumped in at the last minute to support their candidate, DNC just ignored the race like it didn't exist.

Be happy the DNC is still inept and the Neo liberals kept Ellison from taking over.

This election is horrible news for the Republicans and Trump even if they hold on. The fact they couldn't just call the race when the polls closed and we are watching this come down to thousands of votes is damning.

This district is as solid red as you can get with Trump and the Republican rep winning it by 30+ points. The democrats ran a first time candidate who's previous job I assume from his looks was to be a Jonah Goldberg look alike. And the Democratic Party left him for dead refusing to even give him $20k for fliers.

The Republicans ran the Kansas state treasurer who has won his position multiple times and had Trump, Pence and Cruz all campaigning for him.

Freedom Caucus will scuttle the infrastructure bill, the wall and Obamacare overall. Any outreach Trump makes to the dems will not cause any current dem voters to switch over. And if Trump is stupid enough to just outright repeal Obamacare, the fallout would at worst, gift the House to the Democrats and at catastrophic worst, give control to the senate to them even though they have such a ridiculously higher amount of seats to defend. It's basically up to the democrats to lose, which they're masters of.

>Freedom Caucus will scuttle the infrastructure bill, the wall and Obamacare overall

What is their point then? To do nothing? I understand why the obstructed Obama but they should be able to produce something. The infrastructure bill should be easy to pass.

NYT has live updates. Currently:

Ron Estes (R): 37,426 50.6%

James Thompson (D): 35,214 47.6%

61% reporting (379 of 620 precincts)

nytimes.com/elections/results/kansas-house-special-election-district-4

538 calling it for Estes.

>To do nothing?

they are now working to destroy the Trump presidency on behalf of the koch brothers. If Trump has nothing to show in 2020 its going to be a tough re-election

They're still going to run with this story for months as another demoralization campaign even if the Republicans hold. .

close race for a "safe" seat campaigned for by cruz, trump, and pence against someone who didnt even have dnc support.

>on behalf of the koch brothers

Who exactly, which Reps? I know the Koch's didn't give money to Trump but this is the first I've heard about them pulling Soros-tier shit. What exactly don't they like? Wanting to get rid illegals?

>The infrastructure bill should be easy to pass.

How do you figure that? A big infrastructure bill costs a bunch of money. Republicans generally and the Freedom Caucus specifically are opposed to nearly anything that costs money.

If an infrastructure bill passes, it'll be passed by Democrats and a handful of Republicans. But Democrats have no incentive to give Trump a big win.

they're entire job is to obstruct government and make way for privatization

You could do a one time tax break, like in the Bush administration, for the repatriation of corporate profits overseas. I would think it would need to be higher than the 4.95% rate (close to that) during the Bush admin though.

Kek, Democraps are going to sweep everything. Fucking shit.

And this isn't even a secret conspiracy. The open agenda of the Republican Party is to have as little government spending as possible, military excepted.

Most of Trump's campaign agenda (infrastructure, staying out of wars, replacing Obamacare with a government program that covered everyone) are things Republicans are deeply, traditionally, and quite openly opposed to.

Normally politicians are willing to compromise to get at least some of what they want done.

The Freedom Caucus, which is how Republicans now act is to treat politics as zero sum where you you get everything you want, or crash the whole negotiations. Trumpcare is a perfect example of this because Trump and Ryan bent over backwards for them by willing to fuck over millions of people and in the end the Freedom Caucus demanded MORE before saying they wouldn't vote for it and the bill died. They're basically callous sociopaths because they got a concession that would kill people, and it wasn't enough/

It's like if you wrote a highway bill that made all the bridges fall down, the Freedom Caucus would go, ‘Yeah, but that only kills drivers. What about the people at home?”

The fact that just 5 months ago Republicans won the district by 30 points, ran a state famous politician with full backing form the party against a no name first timer who had zero support and it still came down to a single digit is going to be a story.

If anything the liberal wing is going to use this to beat Perez over the head.

>They're basically callous sociopaths because they got a concession that would kill people, and it wasn't enough

Really gave yourself away there.

...

COME ON, ITS CURRENT YEAR.

>What is their point then?
To not be lapdogs to a president willing to shit out an establishment friendly agenda amongst the figleafs thrown towards conservatives while he tries to deal with democrats and progressive Republicans for leftist policy solutions, and have the establishment held to account for the rhetoric by which they--Trump included--appealed to the Republican voter base. Be careful from whom it is you take your political cues from.

>It's like if you wrote a highway bill that made all the bridges fall down, the Freedom Caucus would go, ‘Yeah, but that only kills drivers. What about the people at home?”

>Republican are evil and just want people to die
Woah, how familiar.

demoshits btfo (again)

>No longer require health insurance plans to cover 10 essential health benefits.
>These are outpatient services, emergency room care, hospitalization, maternity, mental health/substance abuse services, prescription drugs, rehabilitative and habilitative services, lab tests, preventive care such as vaccines, and pediatric vision and dental care.
It's like you don't even follow what the Freedom Caucus was given and the ramifications it would have.

Democrats BTFO

Yeah, but if you do that, then you're still taxing stuff to pay for government programs.

The Freedom Caucus doesn't have minor solvable nitpicks with Trump's agenda, they're ideologically opposed to all of it. They don't WANT an infrastructure bill. There's no way to sell them on the concept.

Meanwhile, a Congressman in a district Trump won by 27 points had a scare of actually losing, and is going to win by way less than he should have. If you're a moderate Republican in a district Trump won with under 50 percent of the vote, how comfortable are you right now signing your name onto anything right-wing enough that the Freedom Caucus is on board.

In both KS-4 and GA-6, Democrats are running about 20 points ahead of what Clinton did.

And what about the Senate? If you're Jeff Flake, who has to defend an Arizona seat he won with 49% of the vote in a state Trump won by 3.5 (and which is getting bluer), this race is probably scaring the shit out of you. You could lose! Maybe you don't want to get too close to Trump after all....

Even if Este won this is a major wake up call to the Republicans because he'll win by 6-7 points in a district that Trump won by 27.

winning by a single digit in a state where trump won by 30%.

all this hubbub and no ticky.

Why u mad tho libfag?

>then you're still taxing stuff to pay for government programs.

That's how they're paid for unless you want to deficit spend another gorillian or 6.

More people from the Repubclian coalition outside of the Freedom Caucus was against the bill in the end than were inside of it. It's like you have a particular axe to grind against the ideological core of right wing politics.

Nate Silver's editorials were comically wrong, but 538 was actually the most accurate predictor of the general election. They said that if the polls were even slightly off in Hillary's favor, then Trump would win the EC while losing the popular vote, and there was ~33% chance that would happen. Which is exactly what did happen, when everyone else had Hillary at 99% because they didn't account for the possibility of a systemic poll issue.

You do realize those things were covered by most plans prior to the ACA correct or are you too young to remember that time? The amount of what my plan paid for through work and it's monthly cost got noticeably shittier after the ACA came into enforcement.