I'm an expert about Ukraine and Russia. ITT you can ask me any questions about military and political aspects of conflict which started in 2014 and continues right now. I will answer all of your questions.
You will see that im very competent after seeing my answers.
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No one has questions???? mass media won't cover it as well as i do.
:(
What do you think about Azov ?
I know nothing about what's going on. Give me the jist.
They are so called photo battalion, they don't actually fight much but pose for camera in newer equipment which looks like western cargo cult.
One serious fight they had is liberation of Shyrokine village in Mariupol sector, 2015. In 2014 they flee from Ilovaysk and managed to avoid getting trapped in cauldron.
TL : DR
Azov is PR media product of Ukrainian inner affairs minister Avakov, they don't fight much, but if its required to, they can.
Azov has tank regiment (10 tanks) and some artillery.
Currently there's positional warfare going on with artillery and mortars shelling enemy's position.
Ukrainian army started using strategy of what i'd call "slow advancing", they are taking some neutral territories from DPR and moving closer to their positions.
They took several villages and positions since 2016 using those tactics.
when will lwów be liberated by królestwo polskie i wielkie księstwo litewskie?
Not in nearest future, that's for sure. Poland has neither political nor military means to take Lwow or maybe Львiв
Okay, thanks for the details, user.
I recently read a book called "Understanding Russia", by Gabriela Krone Schmalz, about the way the western MSM and politicians are choosing their terms when reporting about the issues around Russia in general, Ukraine, etc. and about the stigma of being someone who "understands Russia" in Germany. Really good read I found, pretty objective. Your thread just reminded me of it.
How do you as a Georgian view the Relations between Russia and the Baltics/Caucasus?
I for one believe that the constant threats of Russia invading the Baltic states and going deeper into Ukraine is kind of bullshit, as I think it's clear that this is an impossible fight for Russia even if they really wanted to do so.
How do you see the relations of Georgians with other Caucasian ethnic groups, etc?
Where do you see Georgia and Russia in 10-20 years?
Thanks, OP!
t. Montenigger
To be honest, nobody in the west really cares about Ukraine.
It's just there to poke at the Russian bear.
Useful idiots, basically.
>of Russia invading the Baltic states
In my personal opinion this is total bullshit spread by western propaganda in order to keep asking money for military industrial complex. Also this is reason USA uses to justify sending more armor and equipment to Europe. If Europe fears Russia, USA can hold them in stead with bases all over EU.
>and going deeper into Ukraine
Ukraine is very strategically important for Russia and they would gladly go deeper, but in 2014 when they had chance and Ukraine had only 6 000 soldiers, Putin didn't risk it for some reason. Now its too late when whole Ukraine is mobilized and militarized. Russians can still do it, but it will be occupation this time, not what it would be in 2014.
Russians and Ukrainians now view each other as enemies and Russian invasion would be seen as occupation even by ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. Ukrainian army has at least 50% of people from regions where ethnic Russians are majority (Kharkov, Odessa, Dnepr, Sumy)
>Where do you see Georgia and Russia in 10-20 years?
Russia has no more interest in Georgia because they achieved every strategic objective regarding Georgia already, which means taking 2 regions and creating buffer zones and stopping Georgia from joining NATO.
Our new government is trying to be friends with Russia since 2012 but without result yet.
Were Russians troops directly involved in the Ukranian defeats of 2014-2015 or did they just supply equipment? Or maybe there were no involvement at all?
What is the current state of Ukranian and rebel military? Will ukies be able to smash rebels with Russian support and also 1v1?
Is a modern AK variant comparable in accuracy to an AR-15 platform weapon? What is Russia's primary doctrine when it comes to tank warfare?
Shame slavs have to fight with Slavs
European vs European wars should have ended a long time ago
Thanks, based OP! Your comments are greatly appreciated.
Provided we don't experience some global shitstorm soon (you know what I'm talking about), what do you think will happen with Ukraine once the dust has settled and all contested territories have been stabilized?
Also, agreed.
>Were Russians troops directly involved in the Ukranian defeats
They were, but not like Ukrainian propaganda is trying to portray it. There are no regular Russian troops in Ukraine in big amounts, only some special forces and advisors.
They were episodically involved when rebels were retreating. First involvement occurred on august 14, 2014 near city of Krasniy Luch, when Russian battalion tactical group entered Ukraine and clasehd 95th airborne and 30th mechanized brigades, defeating them.
Later from august 20 to September 2014 there were at least 8 battalion tactical groups operating in Ukraine and defeating Ukrainian forces in Ilovaysk, near Lugansk airport and near Mariupol.
In 2015 Russians sent tanks to Debaltsevo to occupy village of Logvinovo and make cauldron to Ukrainians. 6th tanks brigade and 5th tanks brigade were involved with bit of artillery (MSTA-S)
What is your theory on MH17? How do you see chances of novorussian republics if Ukraine decides to strike with full power? Will Trump agree to give up status of Crimea and donbass or will he arm ukrainians?
>What is your theory on MH17?
I think that rebels shoot it down, but not intentionally, it was accident. The reason why i think that is because Ukrainian army aviation and transport aviation brigades were supplying trapped soldiers near Russian border for few weeks, some of AN-26 and helicopters got shot down by that time. Rebels were targeting anything flying in their airspace.
My guess is that they though MH-17 is another AN-26 which tried to supply Ukrainian army, so rebels opened fire, but when they realized it was not Ukrainian plane, they started denying it.
It MAY have been Ukraine as well, they had at least 1 battery of Buk-M1 and S-300PS in warzone, but i don't think they would open fire because Ukraine was not expecting Russian air force getting involved. They could do it as false flag, though.
>How do you see chances of novorussian republics if Ukraine decides to strike with full power?
Ukrainian army can smash those republics even though Russia has been making them stronger and stronger since 2014. But problem is that Russia has full logistical chains and supplies organized near border and will just use this : tactic again. Russia won't let Ukraine take over, no matter how strong Ukrainian army has become. It can fight Russians on larger territory better, but on small theatre of war such as Donbass, there is no chance.
Ukraine can pull some local attacks to capture some villages or 1-2 cities.
What are the actual total casualties KIA+WIA+MIA of UkrOps?
Which Russian unit mopped up T-64BM Bulats of 1st Tank Brigade near Lugansk Airport?
Russia didn't use their airfoce. How long would Ukraine stand if russia unleashed their full military capacities?
GTFO manafort while you still can.
thanks based user, there is also a question about the ukies vs rebels showdown
Both sides suppress casualties
I would say both sides atleast 15,000+ each
>What are the actual total casualties KIA+WIA+MIA of UkrOps?
Around 3 000 known losses and some "lost" soldiers that are still not found and are probably dead. I'd say maximum is 5k dead Ukrainians for now.
The problem is that Ukraine has 204 000 ground troops and many of them are dying from non-combat issues such as various diseases. In 2016 more soldiers died from diseases than from injuries taken in combat.
>Which Russian unit mopped up T-64BM Bulats of 1st Tank Brigade near Lugansk Airport?
18th motor rifled brigade
136th motor rifled brigade
some brigade of airborne troops which i don't remember exactly
Rebel group "Zarya"
17th motor rifled brigade
How can Ukraine better fight Russia on larger, open planes?
There Russian numerical and qualitative advantage of armor, artillery and airforce supremacy acts as huge advantages, while on smaller, urbanised fronts it is not the case?
Ukraine has Russian S-300 missles which are still superb
It wouldn't be nearly as easy as Georgia
Is China a bigger ally to Russia or the US???
How about other regions in ukraine. How they see it this conflict. Let's take for example if NATO forces will be deployed in ukraine, would there be afghanisten like fighters for russia within ukraine?
On small theatre of battle such as Donbass, Russia has logistical supply chains that allow it to supply rebels and quickly sneak into battle with own troops if needed to, Russians also create technological advantage and use it in own favor. They have better artillery reconaissance and fire control equipment.
On huge front Russian logistic supplies will take blow, they are not really good when it comes to this, i refer to invading Ukraine using full scale tactics.
Looking at lostarmour and those aftermaths videos of cauldrons and encirclements made me think there is a pronounced difference in casualties.
3000 dead on each side seems too low for me
Also - How many soldiers were REALLY lost by ukraine and rebels? I'm mostly interested in 2014 but also debaltsevo cauldron
So you say it was Buk-M by one side or the other?
How is ukrainian equipment park looking? They mobilized lots of manpower but mobilized bronetekhnika is surely getting used-up, will they be able to resupply losses?
What are rebel's numbers in equipment and soldiers? are they usung mostly captured or russian equipment?
What are your sources?
Does Russia need the western fields in Ukraine or would it be fine with just the industrialized east? Would Ukraine cease to be a viable state without the east? What are the repercussions for Ukraine if it launches a new offensive? Does that action break Minsk II, and does it give Russia justification to intervene officially?
which is worse?
>How about other regions in ukraine
There are still pro-Russian movements in other regions such as Odessa, but compared to 2014 % of people supporting Russia has dropped a lot.
Some of them view Putin as traitor because he didn't invade in 2014 and join them to Russia. Some of them just lost their relatives in war and seen blood. Its really bad situation.
Most fighting and casualties were taken by brigades sent from ethnically Russian regions.
Hello OP, I like your thread, I was following the happening when it started with the riots but i stopped after a few months, can you recommend me a nice site or something where I can follow this. Also, are there any good documentaries about the situation in Ukraine? Thanks!
>dying of disease is bigger problem than combat deaths
>21st century
Fucking Ukraine.
Anyway, do you agree with me that Putin already won?
I don't see Ukraine in current economic/political state ever achieving anything.
Ukraine has a crazy amount of artillery
They pound the rebel positions nonstop which is the primary cause of death in rebel forces
Hey there user, how come alot of cossack commanders like dremov and mozgovoi got killed?
Also, what's the beef with strelkov, why did he flee from donbass?
Allegiances among post-communist mentally wrecked population change easily. I don't think that's a problem for Russia in future.
It is true that Ukraine lost too much armor, but the reason for this is that in 2014 they were hit by Russian cross-border fire, which mainly destroyed equipment on positions, because back then Ukrainian soldiers were lazy and couldn't make proper position to hide their armor. This has nothing to do with human casualties.
Also Ukrainian side was attacking one, so its natural that their losses in 2014 were catastrophical so far.
Also how is ukrainian ammo supply after the kharkov explosion? Do you think it was sabotage?
What is russia going to do in the near future (with Ukraine)?
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Id the root of the conflict economically based?
>Rebels
You do realize that using a BUK takes some training. This isn't some manpad.
They were Russian conscripts, aided by a a radar installation as by itself it wouldn't have had enough range to accurately target the mh17
>Hey there user, how come alot of cossack commanders like dremov and mozgovoi got killed?
This war started as rebellion and too many of individual field commanders became known and had their own armed groups. After Russia started estabilishing full control over so called republics, they started to remove field commanders that didn't want to be under Russian puppet rule.
Russia installed Plotnitskiy in Lugansk people's republic and he's the main one who has been killing cossack commanders since 2015.
>Also, what's the beef with strelkov, why did he flee from donbass?
He said that he was ordered to. But didn't specify by whom.
You see Ukraine fracturing in the next few years? Like Kiev and like minded regions further strengthening relations with the West?
I might be wrong but the impression I get is that Russia has pissed away any chance of reconciliation with large swaths of Ukraine.
Does NATO overestimate russias war capacities?
Many of those rebels served in soviet armed forces and i'm pretty sure they would have someone from Russia who could operate a Buk. Maybe even regular Russian AA servicemen. I can't talk about such details because i have no insides about this matter in particular.
Yes. They need more money for military industrial complex and the ebil Russia is used as reason to fearmonger.
They still have a lot of ammo. Ukraine has 7 strategic ammo storages, Kharkov one was not full, they took large parts of artillery shells and moved them to temporary storages near conflict zones, long before explosion happened.
you never answer my question about china. Is china a bigger ally to US or russia?
>Does Russia need the western fields in Ukraine or would it be fine with just the industrialized east?
We don't want to directly control either. It simply doesn't make economic sense, i.e. we can't afford to annex it.
>Would Ukraine cease to be a viable state without the east?
It isn't a viable state period.
>What are the repercussions for Ukraine if it launches a new offensive?
It will lose. That's about it.
>Does that action break Minsk II, and does it give Russia justification to intervene officially?
Russia has justification to intervene on any given day, the Minsk is written in a way that makes it impossible for Ukraine to follow w/o mass political suicide.
interesting, but ukraine can't join NATO if polska makes claim on this city.
I have heard that bezler was responsible in the removing of these commanders, also how come many commanders had weapons deals and meeting with poroshenko prior to the war in person? I have seen this happen several times, and interestingly enough seen a 'pretindent' to the russian throne as a figure who had underhanded dealing with poroshenko
Chinese will do what suits China best.
Expansion into Siberia is a dumb meme, so they'll align with Russia if shit hits the fan, because expansion of their power into Asia is realistic option.
Do you suck dicks?
Here's a good one for you, kartuli bro.
What is the real reason Russia took Crimea? Was it because of the Sevastopol warm water port? Was it to deter the NATO to establish nuclear "defense bases" in Ukraine?
Another one: please elaborate on an alleged nuclear explosion in Ukraine of March 2017.
Bezler left Ukraine by the end of 2014 and moved to Crimea, he has nothing to do with removing cossack field commanders. It's all Igor Plotniskiy.
I think that China has no allies, they do stuff which meets their interests. China has ties to US economically, China has ties to Russia economically and in military industrial complex.
China also has ties with Ukrainian military industrial complex, buying engines for L-15 aircraft.
>What is the real reason Russia took Crimea?
A. Inner politics
Putin was not very popular prior to 2014 happenings, opposition was getting stronger, as strange it may sound. By taking Crimea Putin ensured his stay in power for a while, Russian patriots really liked this action, despite having sanctions and economical downfall now.
>Was it because of the Sevastopol warm water port?
This too. Ukraine was threatening to remove black sea fleet from Crimea and Russians were afraid of this happening.
What is russia going to do in the near future (with Ukraine)?
AGAIN!!!
Pro-tip: if you see explosion on camera, it's not nuclear.
Ukraine ha a lot of soviet nukes when it became independent. Didn't USA and Russia sign a deal/pact with Ukraine that if Ukraine dismantles all the nukes USA and Russia will help to protect Ukraine's borders and sovereignty or something?
Why is that deal not being honored, am I missing something?
Probably keep arming rebels and trying to keep Ukraine unstable. Problem is that after maidan, Ukraine didn't remove oligarch regime, Poroshenko is as same as Yanukovich.
He uses this war as reason to keep corruption going on, people are focused on this war entirely. Russia's actions also profit Ukrainian president and his friends.
How would you explain the takes of previous nuclear explosions on camera?
veteranstoday.com
>We
There's nothing "we" and "your" in Russia
Protip : never give up nuclear weapons and strategic bombers to superpowers promising your territorial integrity.
USA played huge role in disarming Ukraine. USA was financing utilization of Ukrainian strategic aviation fleet and even tanks.
Luckily for Ukraine, they didn't follow USA orders for once and said no to utilize tanks, they would fight with sticks instead of tanks now, if they listened to America.
It's not one thing. It's a multitude of reasons. If you want them ranked, here's my take:
1) People were out for blood. Putin was more than happy to give it to them. I can go in detail on why if you want.
2) Black sea is Crimea and Crimea is Black Sea
3) Sevastopol took a while to build, yo. We kinda like it.
4) It makes economic sense, we got a 1% bump in population and a well industrialised area in exchange for some sanctions and a bad guy status. Good trade.
5) Humiliating New Ukrainian government, US, and EU.
Can you answer the lower part of this post? on equipment.
> Russia's actions also profit Ukrainian president and his friends.
How?
Cry me a river.
Poroshenko uses war to keep corruption going and he uses this war as excuse for not implementing real reforms in economics and social spheres. Ukrainian oligarchs had huge profit from this war, especially the ones who have close ties to Poroshenko.
Watch those videos, you don't see the actual explosion, you see the aftermath, the fireball. Flash is just white light that overpowers ordinary camera.
>1) People were out for blood. Putin was more than happy to give it to them. I can go in detail on why if you want.
Elaborate.
Yes, but we are talking about smaller scale tactical nukes here.
Why is russia so gay?
Nuclear explosion is nuclear explosion m8.
If there's no flash, it's not a nuke.
>What are rebel's numbers in equipment and soldiers? are they usung mostly captured or russian equipment?
Rebels have around 350-380 T-64B/BV and T-72B1/B tanks. They captured around 45 tanks from Ukrainian army, mostly T-64B/BV, part of them used as details. T-72 are supplied by Russia.
>soldiers
About 35k in both Lugansk and Donetsk
You worked hard today and deserve some surcharge
Sup Forums.org/b/
Why NATO/Europe don't invest more in Ukraine. Ukraine is very important geopolitacally for Russia. So if Ukraine became a successfull modell then Russia wil be more isolated and weaker.
>Why NATO/Europe don't invest more in Ukraine
Because Ukraine is corrupt and money will get stolen. You need to organize place properly before investing into it, which west couldn't manage to do yet.
Since the fall of USSR the borderlands got more gibs than most russian region, Suddenly because their president is a joke they declare unilaterally that everything wrong in their country is due to RF/Putin, remove russian, language most of them speak anyway, from official languages. And start commiting acts of violence against anti-maidan protesters.
Overnight attitude went from "misguided funny small brothers" to "put them in their place and give them a good kick while at it"
It was quite spectacular.
>astrologists proclaim the thread about Ulraine
>ukranian war specialists population doubles
Fuck, those are big numbers. All those people were recruited from republics? Are their salaries paid from local taxes? What about other equipment, like ifvs, artillery and mlrs?
ukrainians aren slavs, they are turks, khazar
Ukraine is ex-USSR state and so their people and the most army generals. Is it possible that some of them will act against Ukraine and try a military putsch?
Is there any chances to airports be closed? How much serious is this war?
>Poland has neither political nor military means to take Lwow
Political? I agree, it would be diplomatic suicide in current circumstances.
Military? After Poland got mobilized for war, it would be a shitstomp. Not because Polan stronk, but because it is a functional country and Ukraine is well, Ukraine.
Georgiananon how much influence did foreign soft power play in the euromaidan events?
how is the situation in Donezk
Do you believe it will be get back to be ukrainian territory
I was born there and my cousin still studies medecin in that city
russian tourists get about 200 000 - 300 000 rubles a month.
>Fuck, those are big numbers. All those people were recruited from republics?
Most of them are. You can earn good money in Donetsk and Lugansk only by joining military now.
>Are their salaries paid from local taxes?
I have no idea Polandbro.
>What about other equipment, like ifvs, artillery and mlrs?
They have a lot of artillery. I counted more than 150 2S1 "Gvozdika" 122mm self propelled howitzers for example.
Counting equipment such as BM-21 Grad is literally meaningless.
Picrelated is one of rebel artillery brigade 2S1
>Do you believe it will be get back to be ukrainian territory
No
Whole ukraine will be part of russia, we just let the yankees bleed pumpin money inside ukraine.
>how is the situation in Donezk
Its fine, getting shelled by Ukrainian artillery sometimes, but nothing major. Subrubs take most hits usually.
>Do you believe it will be get back to be ukrainian territory
its possible, but not right now for nearest 4-5 years
Are there any tourist locations there?
Thanks for that, it seems like they bulked heavily on equipment, mostly russian I guess.
Why is it meaningless? Rotated from russia? No unit's signs?
>its possible
Not possible