Why haven't you prepared yourself for the Fourth Turning?

Why haven't you prepared yourself for the Fourth Turning?

There's only a few years left before the world descends into absolute chaos

Too much work for too little reward.

People have been saying that for hundreds of years. At this point I'll be pleasantly surprised when it finally does happen cause lord knows my life could do with a bit of a shakeup.

It's already come and gone. Subprime mortgages accelerated the process, causing the default to come early in 2008.

>confidence model from '79
Show me how it lines up to what actually happened faggot. Was 2008 not our great recession?

The fourth turning happens once every 78 years
American Revolution 1765-1783
Civil War 1861-1864
Pearl Harbor/WW2 1941-1945

And then what, a couple years of hardships and manufacturing jobs go away temporarily? Sounds an awful lot like 2008.

You could look back any arbitrary time frame and come up with huge happenings every X years

Commercial real estate never blew. 2008 just papered over the underly problem and set the stage for more bubbles.

>77 years
>78 years

The gap between your examples alone aren't identical. Why do you think this one is similar if there isn't even a pattern?

what happened in 1845? the model would collapse if it was nothing

Seems a bit ethnocentric there goy.

This doesn't happen sporadically, this is a cycle that starts off with prosperity after enduring hardship and ends in disparity which triggers another long lasting hardship in order to ensure prosperity for the future. Were now at the end of the cycle
If nothing improves then we could face a worldwide depression that triggers another massive shitstorm on the scales of WW2

Do I buy silver or something?
Or just jump off a bridge and save myself some strife?

Join ISIS

holy shit, yeates' gyre is real

Its a cycle that occurs ever 80-90 years
Here's an example

Jump off a bridge. If the current system crashes this is it, there is no recovery.

>holy shit, yeates' gyre is real
The "gyre" is an important recurring symbol in Yeats’s poetry. Technically, it stands from the alternation between two historical cycles: one characterized by order and growth, the other by chaos and decay.

>Was 2008 not our great recession?

Thats when the tire blew and we've been traveling with a flat since. Finland has not recovered for sure, Germans get good export but it comes at direct expense of other EU countries because of the value of the currency

shit, meant to greentext that

ya dun goofed son

F

I want to buy gold and silver and start a farm but im a poorfag student. Im dead in the water.

just a sample of what's to come
housing here is so fucked, prices in the past few years have been rising astronomically, nothings cooling the market and developers are just making it even worse. I can't wait though because i'll finally be able to afford a house

>Why haven't you prepared yourself for the Fourth Turning?

Because it ain't real.

That's because most of Europe doesn't make anything new, and they don't have the land mass or natural resources to mass produce cheaply.

Shit is fucking great over here. We are kicking out the illegals and there are jobs everywhere.

The beat part is that it isn't predicated on any specific expectation. No tech bubble, no real estate boom, just people going to work.

This.

I don't get how the fuck normies think the economy ever recovered in 2008, or that "The Great Recession" ended.

They did jack shit to fix things and it's terrifying to think.

>2008
literally just a small taste of what's coming

The (((media))) kept saying "our recovery", magic DIJA numbers went up, things got less dire than during the immediate aftermath, people got bored, and new sources of newsfotainment came along.

Unemployment went down and the deficit shrunk heavily since then

Although your national debt still skyrocketed

Massive deficit spending and law changes is not nothing.

They did plenty.

The illegals are being deported.

Plenty of causes.

there's a debt bubble mate

>Shit is fucking great over here.

Then why has the median wage gone down?

Yeah because Boomers retired and our shitty Millennial cohorts because the worst kind of NEET faggots.
Yeah, and where'd all that money go exactly? To bail out GM's pension fund and Solyndra or some shit?

Not to mention Dodd-Frank is a fucking joke written by the banks themselves to fuck over what remains of small banks.

The illegals starting to leave is the only good thing I've seen so far.

any link to solar minimum/maxima cycles?

forgot to attach pic

Time it right and there's a lot of money to be made.

there was no recovery (at least not for use plebs) we're still in the great recssion and we've already built another economic bubble to pop which should happen around 2020 or so because we're told that the great recession ended around 2013 or 2014 so 7 years from there should be either 2020 or 2021

Not consumer debt.

Nearly all the public debt is held by citizens.

It can easily be inflated away. Long term bond holders get the screw, middle America doesn't lose their house.

it has nothing to do with the precise number of years or anything like that. It's based on generations of people, and the idea that (generally) children are raised in a manner corresponding to the hopes/fears/problems/etc. of their parents' generation, and those generational characteristics seem to run in cycles of four.

Gen Z is the generation that grew up in a post 9/11, recession and smartphone world

They're already showing signs of differing from previous generations such as being more conservative and more entrepreneurship

Median wage in America is still an excellent wage. Recovery is just that, returning to when times were good.

Beef is down, technology is always becoming cheaper and obsolete.

The government got financial interest in gm. Solyndra is less than a billion, only a loan guaranteed, and heavily politicized.

TARP was paid back and turned a profit.

Just because you are young and jobless doesn't mean everyone else is having the same issues. More people are employed, fewer are underemployed. Consumer confidence is incredibly high.

These are the facts. The economy is a function of production and confidence. Both are high right now.

>Just because you are young and jobless doesn't mean everyone else is having the same issues.
Everybody who has issues with the economy is unemployed, right.

Now I know you're a shill.

>The economy is a function of production and confidence.

I am pretty sure demand and the capacity for demand factor in somewhere too..

I love how far positive economists have their head up their ass, and how they completely forget to factor in things like automation, ecological disaster, and heightened geopolitical tensions.

Yes, a shill from "the economy incorporated"

Who the fuck would pay me? Everything I am saying is in such a broad scope that it doesn't solve any one organization's goals.

Fact of the matter is that people are employed, wages have recovered, confidence is high.

Quite frankly, if the economy was in the shitter it would be more reassuring. There would be nowhere to fall from.

Instead things are good and you should be afraid of something silly happening and rocking the boat.

I-i-iff i live in c-central a-america im safe from n-n-nukes, right /pol?

>Instead things are good and you should be afraid of something silly happening and rocking the boat.

Oh really, thank you for telling me master! I wouldn't know what to do if I didn't have CNBC telling me how great everything is. Lets inflate the dollar some more, we wouldn't want things to overrheat from all this fucking rainbows and unicorns.

Elastic demand is a function of consumer confidence.

Capacity for demand is not a thing. Demand is always infinite and only limited by how confident consumers are in their future incomes.

Confident consumers act on their infinite wants to a greater degree.

Production and confidence is literally just supply and demand in more specific terms.

Automation could claim a million jobs. We kick out three million immigrants and have a job surplus.

Production (supply) increases, and prices drop. Effective consumer income increases.

Natural disasters are localized and do not impact national confidence. Not even 9-11 caused total panic and recession.

The 2008 recession literally came out of thin air

No one expected a thing, and then bam, one day our economy just tanked. The event didn't even occur to how you might think, slowly snowballing and slowly building controversy. It blind sided everyone.

TARP allowed general maintenance to continue to be shit and didn't come soon enough to save Pontiac
Fuck TARP
t. /o/tist

If you are a pessimist you will never act on opportunity and never become rich.

Sometimes things are great. That is what is happening now. If things were bad, you wouldnt have anything to fear from a crash.

Get my cock out of your mouth leaf

If that's what you think. Pass me some of that hopium.

I don't think you have any idea the sheer scale of the environmental disasters we're going to be seeing in the near future.

>only white country in the region
You really think (((they))) will spare you?

>More people are employed
90+ million Americans would beg to differ, champ.

>boomers retired
Citation needed

>environmental disasters

Oh you mean like the ones throughout the entire human history?
Or is global warming gonna wipe us out for real this time?

It didn't come out of thin air.

It was mostly the failure of AIG to uphold an insurance policy. Not even mortgage backed securities were safe, and people panicked.

This isn't 1987. The market didn't lose 22% in day and bounce back. There were substantial, visible causes that made the threat more tangible and caused the bear market to last as long as it did. (even with the deficit spending and low interest rates)

Climate change is a red herring. If you don't think soil depletion, environmental degradation and pollution, and overfising aren't gonna fuck our shit up you are an idiot.

>If things were bad, you wouldnt have anything to fear from a crash.

Literally the most retarded thing I've ever heard.

The amazing thing about life and huiman history is, it can ALWAYS get shittier.

Costa Rica is like the Switzerland of centrakas... so... maybe ?

Natural disasters are consistent but unpredictable. They won't be any different than normal, and will always be localized.

Any disaster that isn't localized is called an extinctions event, and at that point who cares.

Jesus christ this tired stat.

You don't need your entire population working. Wives used to stay home and it was great.

Even so, more citizens working, fewer underemployed, more no citizens removed from the labor market. These are all good things.

First edition charizard is up to $600 from a low of $60. People are throwing their money away like never before.

That is confidence.

I've been hearing the exact same thing for 20 years now
"Scientists say the world only has 10 years to live" is an article title that has been printed so many times in the past decade

I will trade you jew

student loans will be the next huge crash

You can't default on student loans
The government owns your ass until you pay it off and if you die they'll just seize whatever assets you have

Bear markets and sustained losses are possible, but a crash requires misplaced confidence.

If people aren't confident in anything good or bad, there is no way for confidence to be misplaced. You cannot have a crash because there is no irrational confidence to crush.

The only thing that can feasibly happen is an inflationary crisis. Things have to be REALLY bad before a government starts printing away debt.

So, who's insuring student debt now? Or the new housing bubble? Because both of those are going to cave leaving you beloved Uncle holding the bag again. The housing bubble didn't bring down Lehman and Brown Brothers, speculation in futures did. It was insider gambling on failure. The boom caused the bust when they couldn't cover their unpaid for shorts. Just like every other time, including the next time.

There is a fund covering this. Income based repayment cannot crash until people are allowed to default.

This will be in 20 years.

The government is insuring this. You cannot default on these until after 25 years of income based repayment.

Speculation in futures impacted by an irrationally large reaction to these mortgage backed investments failing.

Fact is that you need irrational high to fall to an irrational low. Either the economy is shit, or you can be afraid of a correction ( the big one this time guys I swear)

You can't have both.

>You can't default on student loans

But you still cant pay them off if you're unemployed. The loans are ballooning while median wage is going down

i wasn't aware of that fund, but have seen the crazy debt american students are in. seems unsustainable

>shemitah

this

It is a trillion dollars. It will be paid into for 25 years by each student.

Senate sets the interest rates and it is currently 5% for Perkins loans.

This is 50 to 100% more than inflation. It effectively means a student that only pays interest will still pay around 2 to 2.5% of the loan balance per year in surplus interest.

This is 50% over 25 years. Mind you, graduates are also more productive and pay more in taxes at a higher rate.

It will be fine.

Let's say that a government decides to embrace the concepts of natural selection and evolution.

That government initiates breeding programs based on IQ, athletic abilities, general health, and the levels of success reached by a subject's parents and grandparents.

Only the top 33% of society is permitted to breed.

Does this make race-mixing acceptable?

Of course, the breeders would be majority white, however it is undeniable that a outliers from minority races would be included, and in total, would likely make up a notable portion of the breeding pool.

In this case, would it still be degenerate to race mix?

If yes, then why?

I hate this fucking argument. It proves someone is fucking retarded.

>Hurr durr people have been saying X for hundreds of years and it never happened!
YES IT DID YOU IDIOTS. It happened MULTIPLE FUCKING TIMES. God damn I'm tired of stupid humans fucking up my planet. Get dead already.

The last crash was less than 10 years ago...

Notice anything?

This leaf guilty of attempting self fufilling meme magic on us to cause a large happening... What do you want to see 4th on that list?

My guess for motive is leafs are tired of playing 2nd fiddle to the US

The shit hit the fan long before any of us existed and it's nearly invisible shit.. but that's just what the common human condition has ever been