What are her chances, realistically speaking?

What are her chances, realistically speaking?

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If she's against Melenchon she can win, if she's against Fillon it's fucked

I thought it's Le Pen vs . Macron?

Le Pen, Fillon, Macron, Melenchon. Those 4 are in the polls margin of error and could be in the 2nd round.

The media shilled the fuck out Macron but pretty much everyone knows he's just a pre-made puppet. A shitload of leftists will vote for JLM and Fillon still got his ~20%. I think JLM and Fillon will have a tight score and Macron will be far behind

Pretty good chances, if she's trying to get in my pants.

20-30%

Melenchon won't win, hes fucking Bernie.

I've gotten a BJ from a woman who looks just like young le pen

I follow a lot of economy news, so without the political bias, I've seen estimates somewhere between 10-30%, but most are in the 15-25% range.

Zero. Le Pen is a Jewish puppet just like Trump and the rest of them.

give her ur meme energy

>Zero
>just like Trump
Thanks Nate

stop with the black pills v_v
makes me very sad
still probs better then any other trash tho just like trump was better then Clinton or berni curse

I'm not good with maths. What's the percentage chance for something that's not going to happen?

this

praise kek

Doesn't matter, she's an anti-islamist in a xenophobic country. She could be have a four foot nose and shekels spilling out her pockets and still have a better chance than most.

copy paste from another thread

For 30 years, politics under the 5th republic has been the same. A constant alternated power between the soft left and the soft right. Good you may think ? Well it would be if they were not doing the exact same thing once elected. The FN has a role in this little game, it's here to scare people. Since the second turn between Chirac and Le Pen most medias want us to just vote for whoever will stop the FN. We call this the "vote utile" or useful vote. It work worked pretty well for a time but now things are different. Another guy is currently growing fast as fuck. It's Melenchon. He used to be from the far left but he gave up most of his previous ideas to build a program with people from all over the political spectrum. What he really wants is simple. Stop the 5th republic game.

In the other hand there's Marine and her party with a new image. As I told you, she's mostly a scarecrow and if she passes the first turn we'll get another 5 years of bullshit and lost time.

While you may think Melenchon is a commie and all, if you take the time to read the programs you'll she that Le pen social and economical program is THE SAME than Melenchon but weaker, because her job is solely to blame the EU and the foreigners on everything.

Honestly, this year it's MUCH more than just voting for an underdog, it's about changing everything. Because if one of them passes, the 2 main parties will implode.

TL;DR none

The very simple fact that Marine Le Pen was not invited to the dinner of the CRIF (French equivalent to the American ADL), where Macron, Fillon and Hamon were, proves that she's not what this guy say she is.

Not that I'm implying that she is antisemitic but still.

Very slim.
She lose with a honorable 40% - 60%, on the second round.

The only time her party went to the second round - in 2002, her father lost 18% - 82%, for comparison.

Pourquoi tu shill pour un candidat qui ne peut être que hait par cette board?

> Change everything ! Vote for a pro-EU, pro-immigration, pro-LGBT socialist !

He's a true revolutionnary ! Like Hillary Clinton !

Le franglais est une aberration, honte à toi.

J'ai peur pour le futur

Par contre le francarabe de ta vidéo sur l'autre fil c'est génial.

>He's pro EU if it changes following our rules, otherwise he wants off.
>He wants the border closed for immigration as we cannot welcome them anymore. He wants to legalize current illegals IF THEY ARE WORKING. Only to be sure they are not exploited by employers and not frauding tax themselves.
>He wants a strict civil egality between citizens, LGBT or not. Nothing about special rules or else.

Comme je répondais sur l'autre fil, le ton m'agace aussi mais il est clairement là pour parler à la plus grande partie de l'auditoire. Le choix du "wesh wesh" va dans ce sens en abordant les gens sous un ton "jeune" pour contraster avec le ton soutenu habituel qui peut être repoussant pour certain. Un choix discutable mais on s'attarde sur la forme alors que le fond est très bon niveau vulgarisation.

Je suis CSP +, j'ai l'habitude des longs discours à référence ou des livres costauds niveau langage, ce n'est pas le cas de tout le monde

>franglais
ici on appelle ca le 'shiac', en raison d'une petite ville nomme 'Shediac'

exemple d'une phrase commune -

'Va parker ton car so qu'on peut aller brosser au park'

Very accurate. MLP made immigration and Europe her main boogeymen. She fails to realise that the major threats to national security come from the inside of the country (Seine-St-Denis, Marseille, etc.), thus restricting immigration will not achieve much since terrorists were born and raised in France, and have the French nationality. Removing the EU won't do much in this field as well.

JLM isn't flawless, but calling him a commie is meme-tier. He has a good program for the most part. He wants to educate the youth of the ghettos to prevent them from becoming jihadists. It's the only way to deal with the issue, because you can't just kill all of them. And like Marine, he wants to reform the EU or leave it.

Je m'attarde sur la forme parce que ta seule réponse à une question sincère c'est:
>t'as utilisé un mot anglais, bouh caca

you are right

>He's pro EU if it changes following our rules, otherwise he wants off.
Macron and EVERY French politician say that. Since 30 years.
> He wants to legalize current illegals IF THEY ARE WORKING.
Maybe he will pardon rapist of European women IF THEY SAY SORRY.

Why support LePen and not Fillon? Other than being a womyn, they seem to have little difference, and she has openly supported Israel.

J'imagine ça avec l'accent Quebecois, je suis partagé entre l'horreur et le rire.

> Je suis CSP +, j'ai l'habitude des longs discours à référence ou des livres costauds niveau langage, ce n'est pas le cas de tout le monde
Pour finir electeur de Melanchon, on sent a la fois la grosse culture historique doublée d'une solide expertise économique...

Hahahahaha c'est génial.

Le coup des hologrammes j'avoue ne pas comprendre. par contre ça :

fiscalkombat.fr/

je trouve ça très drôle.

She will win, by a landslide
When she will win i will finally sing again the french anthem after a long time

The difference is that Fillon's right-wing values exists since about 3 months before he decided to run as candidate of the French conservative party.

Marine Lepen was called a racist Nazi since she was a teenager.

MelEnchon.

Je ne vote pas, je regrette un peu cependant. Au delà du personnage qui créé un vrai blocage je pense qu'il n'est qu'un catalyseur du changement. Bien plus que n'importe qui, Marine en premier lieu.

LE pen is ideal but Melenchon is a commie frexit man so it would still be ok in the long run if the other parties can block more migrants.

Fillon is anti mudslime but probably in the same way ((Jeb)) was.

So there are good odds of a Frexit vote.

Macron is just Hollande 2.0. I don't think he will really do well.

why support the one leaving the EU and not the cuck? No clue.

Je trouve que ça fait pitié, mais chacun son avis je suppose
>Je regarde l'hologramme, et l'hologramme regarde en moi

y'a pas de fond à part un supposé lieu commun.

Lepen will win

Macron never said it, Macron is licking EU balls as he runs for Drahi and co.

Whats up with her rainmaker pose

Madame President Lepen

C'est une question d'auto-dérision et une très bonne attaque vis à vis de ceux qui ne critique que le personnage et pas le fond. C'est à dire 90% de ses opposants.

Je resors un vieux meme pour toi.

Ma question était
>Pourquoi tu shill pour un candidat qui ne peut être que hait par cette board?
Question à laquelle tu n'as toujours pas apporté un embryon de réponse.

...

Parce que c'est pas ton abris anti-rationalité personnel et qu'on est pas soumis à se plier à tes idées. Pour commencer.

Is this the man himself?

'hey man as-tu des papers pour rouler une joint? pis donne moi ton lighter, jai runner out de matchs.'

malheureusement je ne plaisante pas. C'est reellement des phrase que j'entends tous les jours

> Politicien professionel
> Senateur socialiste pendant 20 ans
> Catalyseur de changement
Creuser la dette a coup de pelleteuse en recrutant des milliers de fonctionnaire qui glandent, avec une petite loi symbolique sur les mega-riches (qui ont déjà toute leur fortune hors de France) c'est pas un changement bienvenu.

Melanchon c'est l'anti-pol, un cuck de gauche qui veut "partager les richesses" qui ne lui appartiennent pas, tout en combattant les méchants racistes (et surtout, les méchants antisémites).

Bref qu'il aille se faire mettre, j'ai hâte a sa défaite de Dimanche.

French has a system that allows for sore loser voting.

>jai runner out de matchs
fucking kek

Apart from your fantasies of Joan D'Ark LePen and her not being able to be a cuck due to her gender, what is the reasoning? She openly supports the Jews.

Je ne me souviens pas avoir dit que Sup Forums était un safe space (en anglais dans le texte). On a régulièrement des fils avec comme image d'introduction des chibres noirs turgescents.

Moyen comme safe space de nationalistes blancs.

C'est juste que je comprends pas, tu convertiras personne ici, je serais à ta place j'irais faire du cyber militantisme chez les militants d'Hamon, ou mieux encore, j'essaierais de convaincre les indécis. Beau boulot sur JVC au passage.

Mais non, tu préfères faire rager des gens d'extrême droite. Pas très constructif tout ça.

1st round : 90% chances she goes to 2nd.

2nd round : ~30% chances she wins.

>Also sad truth : she's not the best solution for France...

This was for Good answer. Care to elaborate?

> Believing ANY promise made by ANY politician
ITT: Literal cucks

The only way to estimate who will sell out once elected is this : which candidate have the deepest hatred for the French political & media establishment.

Marine has been atttacked all of her life by the system, since she was a kid until now. That's how you know that deep down, she hates them.

The other guys are basically actors, who don their rebel costume every 5 years, while living comfortably from the system the rest of the time.

pretty much this

to be elected around 40%
to be elected + leaving the EU around 5%

> MFW Asselineau is the absolutely best solution to save the France.

50%
Either she wins or she doesn't
Also, her acronym is MLP, the fucking horsefucker.

Fillon participated in Sarkosy's cuck government (which, amongst other thing, let criminal sentenced to less than 2 years go free).
He did all his career in the RPR/UMP/LR; participating in the cordon sanitaire; because nationalism is dirty (until he made a few declaration about France recently)

Marine Lepen started her political life when she was a child when a bomb blasted her home after her party was accused of desecrating Jewsish tombs (Carpentras), and every interview she's ever given since was an ambush to "get her".

I don't dislike FIllon particularly (I like how he survive his attempted media assassination), but he's clearly an establishment candidate.
Tl;dr : If the runnof is Marine VS Macron, who do you think Fillon will call to vote for ?

>lying on the internet
Mélenchon is clearly anti-jew
youtu.be/GZYM5fpsNL4
youtu.be/pkcJjlpUFt4

meanwhile Le Pen ....

That's easy to say when literally every bureaucrat and politician in your country is corrupt.

...

about 37%,

But Le Pen's views seem so weird. She is against free trade, for tax cuts and at the same time for saving all welfare, she literally wants a Stalinist France by cutting all immigration. This ridiculous.

>j'ai hâte a sa défaite de Dimanche.

J'ai mal à mon Bescherelle

sorry but the pic that I posted is not a shop unlike yours
try hardernext time jew :)

Thanks for the explanation. Though it really bothers me that she is a woman, thus much more susceptible to influence and much more likely to turn sides, not even mentioning that women are unfit for politics.
It may be useful to say that Golden Dawn here supports her, and that she has a Nationalist movement here (The LePenists) doing some work.

As tu oublié ta grammaire dans ta loge?


The Don callled for the end of the campaign for now but i wil break silence to say this;

Zippo-Aignant; boi; you turbo mong.

First of all you giant prick; don't bring a freaking statue that looks like a fake Giacometti.

Second; to read your messages on your fucking phone like a 18 years old wet fan girl is pure concentrated despair you nut cracker.

Women will always support the nanny state, and France will most likely be the last one to leave that state, if that ever happens. So that issue is not something that can be fixed. Let Nationalism grow, then change other views.

>Beau boulot sur JVC au passage.
Pitié un peu de respect

>tu préfères faire rager des gens d'extrême droite. Pas très constructif tout ça.
Aussi compliqué que cela semble être je ne suis pas un soutien de Mélenchon. Je l'ai dit je ne vote pas.Je comprends que l'on puisse désapprouvé n'importe quel candidat mais j'ai du mal avec la farce populiste qu'est devenu la politique. Du coup je m'affaire à les mettre devant leurs contradictions. Pour l'anecdote j'ai mis ma copine devant sa propre hypocrisie en critiquant sa posture devant Fillon hier soir. C'est dire...

Peut être que je suis dans le déni en me disant que les gens valent mieux que ceux à quoi ils se réduisent eux même à coup de caricatures et d'analyse de PMU.

Cela dit, je tire quand même une petite satisfaction à chaque fois que je vois qqun bloquer devant ses propres erreurs.

polls might be underestimated. At least i hope

Being against (((free trade))), for tax cuts, and banning immigration is good. Hopefully saving (((welfare))) is a lie and she cuts it.

Her leftism is clearly a problem, I hope once she's elected (in 2022) she will throw that away.

Jean-syndicaliste, retraité de l'Education Nationale, qui corrige les fautes des gens sur internet en 2017 en défendant l'anti-système Melanchon.

According to the art.132-bis of the report made the 12th may 1984 during the 5th congress about the 5th article of the annex 14-52 of the constitution, you are right

Nope, this not a lie, she wants to save a lot of Hollande's initiatives.

Also, will she be able to do ANYTHING without parliament? Front National not seems to gain support in the Senate elections.

>As tu oublié ta grammaire dans ta loge?
C'est une formulation récurrente en français

Jean Kevin wants to protect french culture from foreigners but can't write 2 sentences properly. Ca me fait penser aux tracts de Génération Identitaire avec 3 fautes par phrases...

> Jean-syndicaliste, retraité de l'Education Nationale, qui corrige les fautes des gens sur internet en 2017 en défendant l'anti-système Melanchon.

highly unlikely, if she wins a cohabitation with a republican PM is a probable scenario

Her father is a fucking holocaust denier and she has said that France was not responsible for the death of jews. The only reason she kicked him out of the party is because there is no way she could win acting like a 100% anti-semite.

Not getting in unless she's a Zionist. Arnold Schwarzenegger said he admired Hitler, one of his best old friends was an actual Nazi, and the Jews still let him into controlled politics and in their movies. They don't give a fuck about the Holocaust in the higher levels of power. All they care about are two things:

>Is this person blackmailed yet?
>Are they gonna play ball or are we going to have to kill them?

That's it. Le Pen is a zionist or zionist controlled. The voting system is rigged You fuckers never learn.
^You fuckers. Still puffed up on shit souffle. Especially the "at least she's a puppet who could be on our side" guy. Pathetic.

To make it clear, here are the main "protagonists" since the beginning :

-Jean-Luc Mélenchon : far-left radical-socialist eurosceptical candidate. Former Parti Socialiste member, he left and founded a movement (Front De Gauche) for the 2012 election, but only made it to 10%. Yet he made a very good campaign this year and floats around 20% of vote intentions for the first round like Fillon and Macron, which can be sufficient to make it to the second round. He is often attacked on his euroscepticism and his positions toward Russia, Venezuela and the Syrian conflict (said that Putin may solve the situation) and therefore compared to Marine Le Pen.

-Benoit Hamon : PS candidate, pro-European, basically the SJW candidate. He won the PS primaries against Manuel Valls, but he didn't campaign very well and the far-left will go with Mélenchon while the center-left will go with Emmanuel Macron, which basically means that the PS is dead now, thank god for that.

-Manuel Valls : pro-European, pro-secularism, center-left candidate at the PS primaries, he was the Interior Minister (Home Secretary) at the beginning of the Hollande presidency and then Prime Minister, which made him very unpopular. During the primaries he swore he would vote for the winner (Hamon) but then went with Emmanuel Macron.

-François Hollande : French president, so unpopular that he didn't contend for another five years. Although he is a member of the PS, he will vote for Macron for this election (although Macron does not want his support that much).

-Emmanuel Macron : literally a former Rothschild banker who ended up Minister of the Economy in 2014, was very unpopular with the left wing of the PS, and left the government to make his own movement, En Marche. His electoral base would essentially be everyone who voted for Manuel Valls aind Alain Juppé for the Socialist and Republican primaries, he is pretty much the Hillary Clinton of the campaign, with the media describing him as "young and dynamic" and suggesting that he would be at the second round against Marine Le Pen and would be the best candidate to beat her.

-Alain Juppé : former media favorite, he was expected to win the Republican primary, go to the second round against Marine Le Pen and beat her but he was beaten 30% to 70% by Francois Fillon. He is pro-European, quite liberal, and he also had some affairs which had made him ineligible for 10 years. Most of those who voted for him during the primaries are expected to vote for Emmanuel Macron.

-Nicolas Sarkozy : president before François Hollande, he also was a candidate at the Republican primary but didn't make it to the second round of the primary. He now supports François Fillon.

-François Fillon : the surprise winner of the Republican primary, he has a very clear right-wing stance : economically liberal, conservative catholic, pro-European but wants more dialogue with Putin concerning Syria. A shitload of affairs concerning him were revealed in the last few months by the media to damage his campaign in favor of Macron but he still has a strong electoral base which can allow him to make it to the second round.

-Marine Le Pen : she took the Front National after Jean-Marie Le Pen left, made a good score (18%) during the last presidential election and due to her good scores for other elections during the Hollande presidency, it is very likely that she makes it to the second round, and still quite unlikely that she wins the second round. She has worked hard to dediabolize the FN and her political stance on economy is kinda left-wing, so her party is divided between the Philippot line (sovereignist, economically left-wing) and the Marion Maréchal line (clearly right-wing, pro-Identity, conservative, like Jean-Marie Le Pen).
TL;DR Last year we expected a Mélenchon (far left)/Valls (center-left)/Juppé (center-right)/Le Pen (far-right) match with Juppé and Le Pen at the second round and Juppé winning but the Macron candidacy and the defeats of Juppé and Valls led to a Mélenchon/Hamon (SJW left)/Macron (center, media candidate)/Fillon (conservative right)/Le Pen match, with Hamon pretty much out of the game now.

Le Pen will most likely go to the second round, but the other candidate is still hard to predict : Mélenchon has made a good campaign, Macron has the media support, Fillon has a strong electoral base, so all three of them may have more than 20%, which should be sufficient to go to the second round (since the small candidates may take 15-20% of the electorate). And while the second candidate would be very likely to win against Le Pen, no one can be 100% sure of that.

Falling for the same shite. You don't know her. And for her to make it this far, proves she's compromised. If the zionists wanted her dead, they would have erased her years ago. You morons must be chickpea brains. There's no other explanation.

Even if she was the real deal. Even if she somehow managed to do what no other president or prime minster has ever achieved ever, they still control the banks, media, academia, police, courts. There's simply no way she isn't part of it. Then Europe goes down and they'll blame "extreme Nationalism".

...

Anyone but Macron. He's one of (((them)))
Also, (((they))) have already decided the election. Sorry frog.
The last time a PM met a French candidate, it was Sarkozy.

Don't be so sure of that, no one here wants to take a bet on the outcome of this election, let alone trust the polls to do so

Not a single chance, here in France we got a tradition named the "barrage républicain", when the FN reached the second round, all thé other candidates asks their supporters to vote against the FN

I'll take a french women politican over a fucking Greek when it comes to politics any day of the week. Is this faggot serious.

DOES

IT

FUCKING

MATTER

France is currently like 15% Muslim, and is running alive with more niggers per capita than USA

What the fuck is Le Cucken going to do about them?

When will the first round results be announced?

says UK