FRENCH ELECTIONS

First round TOMORROW

Welcome to the thread about the French elections.

If you have any question, me or a fellow Frenchmen will inform you.

Pic related are the latest (((polls)))

Reminder of the 4 relevant candidates:
>Melenchon is a watered-down communist (think Bernie with cocaine)
>Macron is a power-globalist (and shilled by the MSM/establishment)
>Fillon is a cuckservative (he has no real values but steal some lines from LePen to get votes), he is also supported by the catholic minority because he is slightly anti-gay marriage.
>Le Pen is pretty socialist on worker/social issues but very on the right otherwise ; anti-EU

First round, tomorrow.
The second one is in two weeks.

Here are the latest (((polls))) with non-graphic data.

And here are the (((polls))) for the most likely outcome for the second round.

Ca va etre marrant demain. La panique!

are you man enough to vote for a woman?

why the fuck do you have to wait a other 2 weeks to vote again wtf is this

>why the fuck do you have to wait a other 2 weeks to vote again wtf is this

Originally, there was a good reason for it.
Now, it's so the media has enough time to propagandize everyone.

It's called a proper election system.

Ouch. Not even close. Trump polls were never THAT bad.

Lepen 25%
Fillon 22.5%
remember that, the polls are biased that's why we use otherz based on different methods that we don't disclosr to the public

>Ca va etre marrant demain. La panique!
Oh man, and depending on who is going to be on the round, the two weeks are going to be electrical.

It will be very difficult for Le Pen to win the 2nd round.

That being said, who ever passes the first round with Le Pen will probably win.

Hope its Fillon!

I hold both nationalities, first round is actually today in North America.

so that alliance could be made, the purpose of the election is to have a strong president backed by a strong majority

France is a terrible country.

I fear your nuclear weapons.

The polls are aways biased against populists. But the bias is always around 4%.

The results will probably be 44% for Le Pen. Unless something major happens in this two weeks.

Shut up Brazilian!

What do you know about politics?

So what would be Melenchon's chances if he were to sneak into the top two against each of the other three?

Melenchon looks like the betting mans pick from here but a lot gets lost in translation trying to understand French culture

Some stuff.

So basically its a case of everyone ganging up on Le Pen after the first round. Are people being shamed into not voting for her or do the majority genuinely not agree with her?

so no chance le pen is going to win huh

REMINDER: LE PEN WILL WIN GUARANTEED

Shills fuck off and listen up, this is how it is going down, screenshot this.

1st Round will result in a Le Pen/Melenchon runoff. The numbers:

Le Pen - 25%
Melenchon - 21.7%
Macron - 21.0%
Fillon - 20.2%
Hamon - 5.2%

Shut up an trust me on that. I will be right. Le Pen historically always overperforms her polls unless there is another credible right wing candidate for her votes to go to. There isn't. I have used a variety of other methods to calculate the other numbers; to be very brief, always remember that Macron's base is FRAGILE (1/3 of voters could change minds) and is attracted to Melenchon's base, where as Fillon has stalled because of Penelopegate, and there is no reason to vote for Hamon as Melenchon becomes the candidate for the Left.

2nd Round will be 51.43% for Le Pen and 48.51% for Melenchon. Polls after the first round will show roughly a 54/46 race, favouring Melenchon.

The crucial moment will come when Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen (or several prominent members of his party). Why would he/they do that, you ask? Because they support Le Pen AGAINST the commie Melenchon (he wants 100% tax on rich). ALSO, they will have a parliamentary majority, and want to get shit done. THEY CAN GET SHIT DONE WITH LE PEN, BUT NOT WITH MELENCHON. This is crucial to remember.

This will be the FINAL BLOW. Currently (((polls))) predict the abstention rates of Fillon supporters in a 2nd round Le Pen/Melenchon to be approximately 50%. (i.e. 50% do not vote at all). Fillon/his party's endorsement of Le Pen will reduce this rate to approximately 30%, which results in the 51.43% victory I described above. So, add all these factors in and Le Pen will Make France Great Again. I'm waiting, Sup Forums. Shortly, you will see that I was right.

Individual state polling always had Trump competitive in the swing states. It's just the national polling that deluded people into thinking that Hillary was a shoo in.

Similarly with Brexit, the polls were always within the margin of error. Remain never had a convincing lead.

The difference here is that Le Pen is just so far behind. Unless there is another major Bataclan style happening (and not some non event like the police shooting the other day) between now and the second round, Le Pen will lose.

My proposition to reform the french presidential election process:
First round nobody is eliminated, but instead brackets are formed where the highest ranking candidate is paired with the lowest and so on.
Then we get multiple round of k o brackets where half the candidates are eliminated each turn.

>Melenchon looks like the betting mans pick from here
He's a communist.

Yes
Le Pen = civil war anyway.
This bitch want to ban simple veil (hijab), kippa ... IN THE FUCKING STREET
Just insane

Nice Le Pen freefall btw

>So basically its a case of everyone ganging up on Le Pen after the first round
Yup.
Same thing happened 15 years ago.

Please Pen please!!

kys bilel

>hammon
>5,2

Not what I'm saying. I don't want him to win by any means. I'm asking that some bookies have him at a 5% chance to win and it looks like he has a way better chance to win than that.

>Are people being shamed into not voting for her
This.
You have to remember that the Front National if the FIRST political party of France.
But it's bashed 24/7 by the MSM and public opinion under the veil of muh racism.

A lot of the population is very favorable for Marine but it's not 50%.

>The crucial moment will come when Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen (or several prominent members of his party). Why would he/they do that, you ask? Because they support Le Pen AGAINST the commie Melenchon (he wants 100% tax on rich). ALSO, they will have a parliamentary majority, and want to get shit done. THEY CAN GET SHIT DONE WITH LE PEN, BUT NOT WITH MELENCHON. This is crucial to remember.

They're not going to do that, they'll just stay quiet or tell their voters to make up their own minds or abstain. There's a lot of bad blood between FN and the Republicans. I actually think that Melenchon is the toughest candidate for Le Pen to beat in the second round because he has the entire left vote locked up while there is no guarantee that the right will go to her.

What's the point of screenshotting it when you're just going to copy-paste it in the next thread again?

>I'm asking that some bookies have him at a 5% chance to win and it looks like he has a way better chance to win than that.
I have honestly no fucking idea.
And someone pretending to know otherwise is a liar or stupid.

It's a fucking close four-way.

The second round can be easily predicted, but not the first one.

remember

>Melenchon - 21.7%
>Macron - 21.0%
That's some wishful thinking

GG France, Le Pen lost

Are there any Bonapartes still alive?

>Melechon winning against Macron
I wish, but it will never happen.

Macron is a media creature, I doubt he really has the support the (((pollsters)))) wish he had.

Thid could happen. These socialist types sometimes overperform.

Yes, he is unironically a banker

Melenchon actually under performed in 2012. The final polls had him at around 15%, he ended up on 11%.

Macron is both socialist and "moderate", basically the continuation of our current president, despite being officially independent. He is the true populist, that's why I think he will win.
And unfortunately Marine won't win if she's faced with Macron

>Melenchon actually under performed in 2012
Here are the numbers from 2012.

They were off to a few points.

First round odds:
Le Pen 8/13
Macron 13/8
Fillon 10/1
Melenchon 20/1

Second round odds:
Macro 8/13
Le Pen 3/1
Fillon 4/1
Melenchon 16/1

Source: bet365

...

>Macron beating Le Pen

Truly cuckish

No, the base of the right will never support Melenchon, despite what the establishment says

If Fillon is out than LePen will start getting close to 50% of the vote and mroe

Is Melechon a communist in the say way that Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn are or is he a literal Marxist?

Yes

If Hillary, no.
If Le Pen, yes.

I watched a progamme on television here last night where the interviewed people in the country and they were quite supportive of Le Pen. What they were trying to say is never underestimate the power of the vote in the heartland just because you live in the city

>Is Melechon a communist in the say way that Bernie Sanders
A bit communister than Sanders, but still pretty red.

He's not a full marxist/stalinist but he's leaning there more than any president France ever had.

I need a briefly delivered synopsis of current affairs.

Vote Le Pen

>never underestimate the power of the vote in the heartland just because you live in the city
Same thing happened in the US after all.

Most big cities in France are globalist socialist cucks, and most small cities/villages in France are full of conservatism and outright racists.

But years after years, demographics and urbanism being what they are, the liberals are winning some ground.

>I need a briefly delivered synopsis of current affairs.
You have the graphs and the political leaning of each candidate, what more do you want?

That's the comparison they were making, Trump and Brexit the heartland delivered. Hopefully the same for France.

>Most big cities in France
we have like only 5 cities that could be considered "big" and shit like Marseilles got red pilled long ago

>having to fight invaders in a political realm

This is how I knew democratic voting was a mistake. France should have never gotten rid of the monarchy

Don'T you dare leaving the EU you fuckin cunts, now that we have GB by the balls....you will regret it froggies.

>we have like only 5 cities that could be considered "big" and shit like Marseilles got red pilled long ago
What is funny is that with the exception of Paris which is already lost, the Whiter an area is, the fewer are voting for LePen.

They simply do not know how bad it really it.

>Le Pen is pretty socialist on worker/social issues but very on the right otherwise

Question. If Le Pen gets 2nd most votes (ex. Macron 25% and Le Pen 23%), will she still go to the 2nd round of votes?

Yes, it's the top 2 from the first round

Thanks!

this

Le pen is shit.
She won't solve any problem at all.

t. maghrebi

Redpill me about Macron.

I don't trust Lepen because she is just another corrupt fuckup

I'm white as fuck, and if you want to cleanse the france, le pen won't do shit.

If you wanted to avoid africans in my Paris, france shouldn't have colonized them so hard and called to them in order to work her.
You want a white france?
Grab a time machine, i'm afraid it's too late now.

Germans got wiped out of eastern Europe 70 years ago and there were like 20 milions of them.
Nothing is impossible and never is too late.

Hi frog

How do the French people feel knowing that when they go to the polls, they are playing the jihad lottery because we all know that SOMEONE is gonna get stabbed/shot/ran over/blown up at a polling booth this weekend?

like seriously, we can all see this is going to happen and France has no control over terrorism in it's country

I also remember that Geert will rule the world. Didn't come true either. Kek is not real you mongs.

People get shot far more in the US far more than they do in France. I'd still feel much safer in France than in America.

>france shouldn't have colonized them so hard
WHAT A KEK FUCKER SENPAI

wait so the betting agency is saying that Le Pen will win both rounds?

Is Melenchon just the communist flavor for euroskeptism in France?

If Le Pen and Melenchon go into second round, what's their view on the EU? All I know is they both hate the EU, but I'd imagine only Le Pen wants to leave it.

Mélenchon Fillon incoming

please god melenchon surge

Geert grew into the second largest party and has permanently destabilized the left in The Netherlands.

>Le Pen performs well in the 1st round
>oy vey goyim remembah Vichy let's have a rassemblement républicain around good goy Macron
>Le Pen gets 48% in the second round which makes everybody shit their pants
>Macron président
>pathétic joke, worse than Hollande
>France deteriorates by the month
>emboldened by an unprecedented laxism shitskins rape and burn everything
>they all go for the trucking high score
>the French finally start to learn their lesson
this is what France needs, the French haven't yet awoken, the ride will be rough, that's why I'm staying in one of the only sane countries left watching it all go down

Are they still doing polls or they stopped it?

What's the problem with Macron exactly?

He doesn't want to put shitskins in camps

REMINDER: polls were right about Trump and they were right about Brexit. Polls did, however, overestimate the support of Geert Wilders.

Le Pen is fucked.

>polls were right about Trump
not at the state level, if they were they would have valued his chances of winning higher

Nationwide polls sort of matched with the popular vote because of irregularities in places like California, they got the swing states wrong and that's all that matters.

It's hard to see how Le Pen could bridge the gap though

I just want Fillon to win.
All the other candidates are marxist/socialist and anti-Christian scum who will doom France economically and morally.

I'm betting Macron - Fillon in the second round.

Setting up some fake accounts on twitter, give me some normie Le Pen memes to spread!

Wtf is "Resistons!"? Centrist euroskeptics? Actual right-wingers?

The undecideds are to scale with how Trump polled though. Plus, demonization here is nothing compared to what they've done to Le Pen, so we can count on legit "shy voters" saying they'll vote Macron, as shown by the fact the most right-wing group in France is voting for him by like 50% margins.

Used to be so commies couldn't seize power, an actual threat in postwar France.

Now it serves so Jews have time to fix it... so commies and the like can seize power