Canadian Housing Market Thread count

ITT: Canadian Housing Market Thread cont.
>we're fucked

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zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-29/furious-bank-run-leaves-canadas-largest-alternative-mortgage-lender-verge-collapse
cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/about/core/upload/quarterly-financial-report-september-2016.pdf
cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/annual-report-2016/index.asp
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

How is chinks losing all their money buying crackshacks fucking us? We just made a shitload of money off them.

Herro!

Should I be buying guns & food?

I've heard about this.

How fucked is Canada really?
I've read that some economists have said that China, Sweden and Canada are really fucked because of their debt to GDP growth ratio.

The central bank caused this fucking problem.

The only solution is to elect Maxime Bernier so the housing bubble will finally be popped and millennials will be able to afford housing again.

>empty country
>housing crisis
For fucks sake.

Go chug some yankee dick and forget about it cuck.

igloos

Canada's situation is worse than most will be let on. The reason that our National debt-to-gdp isn't that bad, but once you start adding the provinces into the equation, the real situation is very ugly.

lol for funzies add private debt then alternate between crying and laughing

From a raw policy perspective, Max is the finest candidate I've ever seen in Canadian politics. If he can follow through, things like dairy and communications prices could drop by 2/3's

B-build more houses?? Why not that?

>literally endless miles of empty land / forests with nobody living on them
>have housing crisis
>can't chop down some trees and build your own dwellings
You syrup-niggers are beyond helpless.

Buy Silver. So cheap right now that it can only go up. Don't except paper for holdings, get hard bullion. When Canada goes tits up, the value won't be dependent on the value of the loonie like other hard assets such as property.

I wonder if it's topped out.

/po/ I'm looking for your collective wisdom... should I sell??

has the time come to take profits on my castle, or should I hold out for a while...

New Zealand did that, worked very well. Literally deflates housing bubbles.

Something tells me their problem is not a shortage of houses

Rude
Are a lot of people talking about the housing crisis in Canada? It doesn't seem to have hit the news much. Are they trying to prevent panic?

Yes my dude, If I were you I would sell, indeed the market could inflate a little more before it pops but better safe than sorry. If it's isn't too inconvenient for you, maybe get a shit hole until the storm is gone. Like a trailer or something.

I think so, chinese investment has sent market into the sun. The central bank is probably sweating bullets behind the scenes.

Even if housing crashes, it won't matter. They'll just bail out the banks with your money, housing will go back up again and you'll be right back where you are now, only then you'll have even less services.

The housing industry is insane busy, but overpriced as developers take their profits

and generally people don't want to live on 'endless miles of empty land'

Retard.

UGH

TRUTH

>How fucked is Canada really?
Not at all.

Canada just had their New Century Finance moment:

zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-29/furious-bank-run-leaves-canadas-largest-alternative-mortgage-lender-verge-collapse

For you youngsters out there, New Century Finance was one of America's biggest mortgage lenders which filed for bankruptcy protection in Summer 2007 - marking a significant point in the GFC.

In short, Canada's housing market is fucked. Big question now is, how exposed are their banks and other financial institutions?

>B-build more houses?? Why not that?
The ultra high prices are in areas that are filled in. Vancouver and Toronto.

Areas that still have room to grow have far more normal and realizable prices.

I wanna move to Canada in the next few years, am I retarded for trying?

>The housing industry is insane busy, but overpriced as developers take their profits
Then chop down some trees and make a little hut for yourself like your forefathers did and like people still do in the Yukon and in remote Alaska

>and generally people don't want to live on 'endless miles of empty land'
It wouldn't be endless miles of empty land if more people lived on them, you dope.
And if you don't want the easier alternative, then quit bitching about a situation you are helpless / unable / unwilling to do anything about.

>Retard.
At least I have a place to live, leaf.

You are contrasting 'one of the largest lenders' to one of the smallest.

Home Capital Group has loans in total of about 20 billion. The Canadian residential mortgage market is 1.1 trillion.

"The sky it's falling again!" - Zerohedge.com

Yes and HCG is just the tip of the iceberg. You can continue believing Canada's housing market is rosy if you want, but I'll be steering well clear of any investments which expose me to Canadian RE.

>I wanna move to Canada in the next few years
>am I retarded for trying?
Only if you're white; they only want muslims and africans.
I'm pretty sure being white is a civil offense now.

It's the same situation that happened in the US 2001-2008 except instead of deflating and correcting like the US market did in 2008 our PM at the time Harper bailed out the Canadian banks which were all insolvent with a $119B bailout that took the toxic mortgages off their books.

The problem is Canada has a national mortgage insurer called the CMHC which is the Canadian Fannie/Freddie. It allows the banks to remove any risk of default, so they lend literally to anyone who can get it (pretty much everyone). Read:

>Canada's entire housing market is subprime

Before the 2000s, the CMHC required 10% downpayments, 25 year terms and had limits of $500k I believe.

Harper then came to power in 2006 and the CMHC gradually reduced downpayments to 0% (banks were paying people to buy houses), upped amortizations to 40 years and removed the cap. There was talk of upping amortizations to 50 years etc.

The bubble kept building and the average house price in Canada has essentially tripled in a decade despite lower incomes, with some areas having gone from $150-200K to $1M+. The average home price (including condos/apts/cottages etc) is $520K. The average house price is closer to $1M. The first people into this ponzi scheme made money on paper and kept trading houses with each other, taking their magical "home equity" derived from rising prices with them, constantly inflating prices further.

The government has since reduced CMHC amortization to 25 years, introduced a $1M cap, and raised downpayments to 5% on the first $500K and 10% on the next $500K (ie. 7.5% on a 1M loan).

As a result, alternative lenders much like CountryWide have popped up and they primarily give out liar loans where people can lie about their income. Now these lenders (Home Capital Group, Equitable Bank, etc) are having runs on the bank, with home capitals shares collapsing 65% on Wednesday and equitable down 40-50%. The Canadian bank regulator is in the process of winding these lenders down

The only way it becomes a problem is if everyone withdraws their deposited money from the banks and no other bank will lend other banks money.
The trick of fractional reserve banking to keep people content. Or to have a central bank that will do anything to prop up other banks.

If the prices of Canadian RE falls that just drives a surge of buying as prices fall. If they stay high you get your trickle. The issue with HCG wasn't a change in prices but a major round of withdraws.

The huge rise in prices is mostly limited to two areas that have filled in and have no free room for new construction. This is why "some" prices have tripled. In every other area in the nation people still have literally millions of square km to build on.

Does anyone know of an ETF for canadian housing that trades on the US exchange?

in the same boat, lads
bloody chongers laundering money and boomer inflation
Godstrength

The CMHC has $18B in assets, yet close to a TRILLION ($1,000B) in insured mortgages: it's Fannie/Freddie on meth. The CMHC is leveraged 50:1.

When a correction does occur and banks start calling in CMHC insurance, it will be wiped out. The banks also have large books of uninsured mortgages, and one of the Canadian big 5 banks going under would wipe out depositors, who are covered up to $100K with CDIC insurance.

However, the CDIC has $3.4B in assets but $679B in liabilities. Any bank going under in Canada would wipe out the CDIC.

Both of these institutions are backstopped by the Government of Canada, so the federal government would have to issue hundreds of billions in debt to backstop them.

Anyways
>Canada is a giant housing ponzi scheme
>5x worse than the US housing bubble
>Moral Hazard on crack
>Prices will collapse 60-70% or more
>Canadian government will go bankrupt
>Loonie will drop below 50 cents and reach record lows
>Trudeau will keep bringing in 750,000 non-white poor African/Muslim/Poo/Chink immigrants a year

etc

HCG, EQB, MIC, MKP are the major public "alternative lenders"

The loan rate to short HCG is 70-80%/year

If you want to short Canadian housing just short the loonie. It will likely hyperinflate

The thing is most activity is Vancouver/Toronto and a few other centres

And there is a constant flow of immigrants coming in who need a place to live

This has been propping up the construction industry for a long, long time

It has been a 20-25 year growth spurt with few interruptions

This is stuff approved or under construction just in centre of downtown T.O.

Will this fuck our economy up?

>only niggers an Muslims

True, even if you are a refugee. I used to pork a wh*te SA girl. She said that she couldnt get a refugee status here because all the fucking mudskins were taking up the spots coming in from syria

Jesus Christ

>Canadian banking system rapidly unraveling
>Cuckdeau will bail them out and kick the can down the road
>Next time it'll be 5x as bad
>Canada is literally at the edge of a cliff
Serves you right for voting in communists.

Canada has a government program called Gender Based Analysis Plus (GBA+). It's used in all immigration decision to ensure no straight whites are allowed in because the program is designed to address inequalities based on a slew of factors. It's mandatory, every immigration officer must document how he "analyzed" the applicant based on GBA+ and records are held that can be audited by the federal government.

It's the reason why 97% of the 400K new PR immigrants to Canada are not white.

Also, Canada let's in 750,000/year, it's probably closer to 800-850K now, and by 2027 Canada will be

>The CMHC has $18B in assets, yet close to a TRILLION ($1,000B) in insured mortgages
The total residential market in Canada is 1.1 trillion. Your numbers are incorrect.

identify as a syrian
does it actually work?

Jesus christ. Buy food, leafs. Buy nonperishable food that you can stomach it will only go up in price.

we need to fly in more syrians to fix our problems

Why don't you leave the country? Canada is finished.

>Will this fuck our economy up?

Not yours. You as an american will be able to have increased purchasing power in Canada. You'll get more shit for less.

Where am I supposed to go?

>What are commercial mortgages?
>What are mortgage pools?

Mortgage Loan Insurance
Insurance-in-force ($B) 514

Securitization
Guarantees-in-force ($B) 435

Total liabilities: $949B

Total equity of Canada 20,753
>Total assets: $20.7B


From CMHC 2016 Q3 report
cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/about/core/upload/quarterly-financial-report-september-2016.pdf

GBA
2/

Depends on your needs and circumstances. Any country with more freedom.

GBA+
3/

WHO IS HOLDING THE NHA MBS???
That's who we need to be shorting to make mad dosh.

GBA+
4/4

Guess who started GBA+ in Canada?

George S_ _ _ _

I remember going to high school at NTCI at yonge and Eglinton and cant believe how much its changed in 4 years, dozen condos popped up and a dozen more planned compared to having like 3 when i was there

It isn't a Wild West situation like the US in '08

The banks are much more cautious here - much of the activity is wealthy immigrants.

Housing developments need to be min. 70% sold before they can begin construction... if you build on spec, you need your own cash.

The wildcard is mortgages rates - much of the activity is condos which have largely taken the place of rental buildings - people rent private condominium units that were purchased as investments.

If interest rates rise - which they may - it will likely make a lot of the investment properties cash flow negative, and less attractive to investors... and people may dump them creating price drops... it's possible, but again, there are population increases in many places where the growth is happening...and people need places to live

hopefully things will stay in balance and prices stabilize.

my housing situation is we're in a couple towns north of toronto in a nice house that was worth around $250k in the late 90s. Since then both of my parents were laid off, 2008 happened, and now we're $250k in debt and our house cost has risen to like $800k, so we've still got another $200k worth of mortgage to pay off. We've tried getting financial help but we just don't pull in enough income to stay here for much longer. It sounds like our only real solution would be to sell the house and then buy one that is further up north.

the houses further up north, like the Barrie area are pretty cheap for good size. I think you can get like a good 3 bedroom house for like $200k. People could move to these places if they really wanted, but the problem is definitely that living next to Toronto is so much more favourable. I'd really stay here if it were 100% up to me

>Muh Wealthy Immigrants

No. It's subprime. CMHC allows banks to remove any risk, hence borrowers overextend themselves. Now we're in NINJA territory with fake documentation.

The psychology of bubbles is interesting. I recommend you read Irrational Exuberance by Shiller.

Bubbles pop for many reasons-- interest rates, recessions, economic shocks, etc. But the most common reason is... no reason at all. They are by definition irrational.

Here is a good chart

We're in the denial to fear stage now.

The resemblence is uncanny.

>canada

The US of course. Unemployment is low and if you have a marketable skill you can do well. Most unemployed are that way due to bad life choices.

Whites not allowed in Canada

>our house cost has risen

Adjustable rate mortgage?

Time to die niggers :D

honestly i dont really know for sure, other than my family is fucked and i can never fully understand it whenever my parents talk about it.

For what it's worth, Leaf, I studied Canada's housing bubble about 3 years ago. Foreign capital flows surely must have some impact though.

I agree the underlying issue is mortgage (((creation))).

We've been waiting for the day of the rake, but I hope it isn't this rake.

I don't know much about housing but the way you explained it so far is that I was right not to fall into the mortgage trap these last few years and wait it out. Am I correct? I'd like to eventually get something bigger as I grow my family but don't want to fuck up like everyone around me who've bought $600k McMansions that are in reality probably worth half or a third.

your making it fucked, by saying its fucked. Real estate is mostly speculation, ie what people think its worth

And people have the audacity to ask why younger people aren't getting married?

Nigga we can't even afford anywhere to raise our kids, even if you have a 70k salary it isn't even feasible here. The reason why mudshits populate so fast is because they really have no self worth and will cram 4 families into a single house like a bunch of cockroaches---whites don't do this

Lol, didn't they tear down NTCI and put a condo on the property?

WAKE ME UP

smells like a bubble

Yes, absolutely. Home ownership is an awful idea right now.

If you were sat on a fully paid off home I would recommend you to try and remortgage it to a bank at a 10 or 20 year fixed interest rate, because global housing is in for a shoah and then it wouldn't be your problem.

(In essence you would be trading the underlying asset for a fixed interest loan - bank takes ownership and you can default and walk away from a bad asset which cannot be liquidated and is burning a hole in your pocket.)

I wouldn't buy right now - I'm not 100% sure I want to sell either.

Real estate is fine, but you can rent and invest in plenty of other things too if it's overpriced

321 000 pensions just got used to bail out a stock company by a corrupt board member.

Pension funds are for bailing out failing companies. Corruption is cool now. Fiducial obligations are a meme.

>mfw

I own my house because I bought very cheap before the oil boom when I was young and paid it off in a couple years so I'm fine to sit put. The reassurance to stay the course is helpful.

>Canada let's in 750,000/year, it's probably closer to 800-850K

I've seen this meme floating around and haven't seen a single lick of proof.

The population stats would have reflected such insane immigration. Our population has only grown by 10 million in 20 years. If we had those levels of immigration we'd be at 50-60 million.

Real estate isn't fine. It is heading for a massive dicking globally as mortgage lending collapses. If you were discussing another time line maybe.

Either way real estate gets fucked. Either way. Be it deflationary collapse (see: home "owners" go underwater and slowly default on outstanding mortgages) or inflationary (real value of homes gets shoah'd.)

In either scenario housing is fucked. And that's not to mention that over the next decade a lot of (predominantly old) people are probably going to die, which will also impact housing.

Stop peddling the immovable, 98% taxation recovery rate, asset jew.

Blackpill incoming. Hold onto your seat.

Everything you know about "muh reasonable, skilled 300k immigrants/year" is a distortion of reality.

Look on the bright side leaf, chinks BTFO. Now they have less of a reason to invade your frozen shithole.

I'm not saying to stay the course- taking a mortgage out on it again shifts the liability of the underlying asset to whatever institution is dumb enough to float the credit and is also a hedge against the inflation which is likely coming.

The fixed interest rate is crucial to avoid getting stung by rising repayments when central bankers have to hike rates to stave off hyperinflationary collapse.

>over the next decade a lot of (predominantly old) people are probably going to die, which will also impact housing.
They already reversed mortgaged their home, user

Late 1990s:

>White European Canadians were a 90%+ majority until the 2000s and Canada was conservative, no LGBTQ+ bullshit
>All of a sudden, start seeing Africans, Muslims, Pakis, Chinks, etc everywhere
>Multiculturalism expands to hyper levels, every school/university/work place/government agency starts ramming diversity down our throats
>House prices start accelerating
>Wages start decreasing

Fast Forward 2017

>Toronto 30% white
>Vancouver Syrian Refugees 24/7 on TV/news
>White people can't find work, it's all non-whites getting jobs
>Average house price is $1M+ while salaries are 50K-60K max
>Refugees driving BMW and Mercedes
>Most Universities have non-white majorities
>White Europeans down to 65-68%
>Whites will be Nobody really knows why this is happening so fast, government always touts (((250-300k))) "reasonable" immigration a year
>But nobody has ever heard of a white person immigrating in the last 20 years

Now

>Turns out Canada is letting in 750K on permanent residency a year via various immigration schemes not publicized
>Canada lets in 1.2M a year on "temporary immigration" that's 10 year work/live visas that lead to citizenship that aren't even counted in public statistics
>Turns out secret GBA+ (Gender Based Analysis Plus) program is forced down every government decision maker including immigration officers to discriminate against straight whites
>Turns out 97% of immigrants are poor non-whites
>Turns out there is a secret organization called the Metropolis Project that holds an annual conference of 1,000+ government bureaucrats with the sole objective of letting in as many poor non-white migrants a year
>Turns out this organization started in 1998, around the time of the change
>Turns out George Soros started and funded the Metropolis Project through his Open Societies Foundation
>Government passed M-103 anti-Islamophobia motion, setting road to criminalize any criticism of migration policy

You are here.

Now for the "controlled" and "reasonable 250-300k" immigrants. This is a lie by omission, and in fact we let in 1,231,041 3rd world migrants on 10-year unlimited stay/work VISAs that count as "temporary immigration" which is never publicized.

cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/annual-report-2016/index.asp

>We will also continue to welcome those who come to Canada temporarily. Canada has always been a popular destination for students, workers and visitors from around the world, and this popularity is growing at a remarkable rate. In 2015, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada processed more than two million temporary resident applications and extensions. Temporary immigration represents a significant contribution to Canada’s labour market and to our economy in general. We are committed to improving processing times and meeting the challenge of more and more people applying to come to Canada.

>As of December 31, 2015, citizens from 149 countries and territories required temporary resident visas to visit Canada. In 2015, IRCC processed applications (new and extensions) from 1,588,590 persons seeking temporary resident visas to come to Canada, 82.3% of which were approved. IRCC continued to be successful in promoting the use of multiple-entry visas, which are valid for up to 10 years and allow applicants from visa-required countries to travel to Canada more frequently and on their own schedules. In 2015, a total of 1,231,041 multiple-entry visas were issued, which was a 21% increase from 2014. Effective February 6, 2014, a policy change automatically considered visitors to Canada eligible for a multiple-entry visa. IRCC also introduced a single fee for the processing of a temporary resident visa applicable to both single-entry and multiple-entry applications.

Canada gave 10-year unlimited stay duration with full work privileges (=PR) to 1,231,041 3rd world non-white migrants. People from rich countries don't need visas.

Not sure I understand. Are you talking about a reverse mortgage or line of credit to use towards a new place with a safer obligation? I already own it, paid for.

Some may have. Most are sat there hoping for their state-funded tax gibs to keep getting paid out in perpetuity so they can hold onto their properties. (Which they view as their savings accounts - might be a smart move if housing was a remotely liquid asset.)

It explains why your country just had a new heritage moment vis a vis a little budget reenactment of the jonestown massacre. They know there is no hope.

yes fellow canadian
sell your house now before its too late!

I live in rural Manitoba, there's a crazy amount of Brits who are here right now. Same with Krauts and Ukrainians. But it's ugly and boring as shit.

The housing is only insane in the Toronto and Vancouver area. Depending on what you do for a living, I'd recommend Nova Scotia. It's alot like home, very white, British and affordable. Plus if you like seafood and drinking it's god tier.

Victoria is very British and in comfy, stunning BC. It's not nearly as ridiculous as Hongcouver. Alberta is like little America, Saskatchewan is friendly farm folk. Quebec has insanely hot women, but asshole men. Ontario is stunning outside of the Toronto area.

Anyway, good luck on your endeavor.

Released: 2016-09-28

Annual demographic estimates by age and sex for Canada, the provinces and the territories as of July 1, 2016, are now available. Revised estimates as of July 1 for the years 2012 to 2015 are also available.

According to preliminary estimates, Canada's population was 36,286,425 on July 1, 2016, an increase of 437,815 or 1.2% during the year 2015/2016. In absolute numbers, such an increase had not been recorded since 1988/1989 (+485,034).

This acceleration in population growth was mainly attributable to the record number of immigrants (320,932) who arrived in the country. The arrival of Syrian refugees since November 2015 contributed to the increase in immigration in Canada. For the period covered by the current system of demographic accounts, which began in July 1971, the previous record was set in 2009/2010 (270,581 immigrants).

>The country had not received such a large number of immigrants in a single annual period since the early 1910s during the settlement of Western Canada.

The country had not received such a large number of immigrants in a single annual period since the early 1910s during the settlement of Western Canada.

>The country had not received such a large number of immigrants in a single annual period since the early 1910s during the settlement of Western Canada.

The country had not received such a large number of immigrants in a single annual period since the early 1910s during the settlement of Western Canada.

Soros uses Canada's Marxist regime to control Citizenship and Immigration Canada through his Metropolis Project, controlled by his Open Societies Foundation, to pay thousands of shills to bring in over a million 3rd world non-white migrants a year. The Gender Based Analysis Plus program is enforced on all immigration officers when deciding who to admit, essentially eliminating any straight, non-poor whites.

Mass 3rd world non-white immigration is used as a tool to:

1) Depress wages as low as possible in order to maximize corporate profits and ensure dependence on the welfare state

2) Ensure the ruling elites remain in power since the desperate worker-slave needs government handouts in order to survive

3) Weaken and fracture society so no cohesive resistance can form and oust the ruling elites (its one of the reasons Trudeau abandoned electoral reform-- he was caught making an off-hand remark to a protestor about how dangerous it would be for Kellie Leitch to form her own power and gain seats in the house through proportional representation)

What's the fastest way to accomplish this? Bring in poor Muslim/Africans, since they cannot provide for themselves and depend on the state, and they also outbreed whites in Canada since a Somali Muslim woman w/ 4 kids gets $43,000/year from the government in benefits. Why work for $10/hour (22k/year) when you can get $43,000 tax-free? The average Canadian earns 29K.

Look at the statistics. In 2011, we were:

32.8 million:
26.5M
6.3M non-whites

July 2016, we are:
36.2M
25M whites
11M non-whites

The official government always quotes "reasonable" and "skilled immigration" of 250K/year (300K last year). Now, how do do non-whites increase by 4.7M in just 6 years? That's 780,333 net non-whites added per year, while whites decreased by a record 250K a year.

What I don't understand is why people haven't started selling. If my shitty little $110k house were suddenly worth a million fucking dollars, I'd sell and go retire somewhere cheap.

Any sort of long-term, fixed interest loan with your home on the line as collateral would work.

Greed or the market has stalled. In some markets nothing is moving. Vancouver already dropped 15% in a month

Ok I see. Thanks for the advice.

All mortgages in Canada are ARMs with 5-10 year terms. In fact, banks can call in mortgages at any time. But if at renewal you're underwater, you have to come up with the difference + 20% (margin call) or the bank liquidates.

There's no such thing as just paying off your mortgage despite a housing crash. Nobody will renew your mortgage and you will be bankrupt.