Macron can still lose - MI6 = ourguys

The French Legislative elections are coming soon, and they will dictate to a large degree, how easy Macron can enforce his cuck policies. This is where the meme magic will REALLY count.

anthonyveyssiere.com/legislatives2017/


What you're seeing is a simulation of the french legislative elections. You'll notice Macron's party barely achieves a majority on their best case scenario, and that the frog system's results are very volatile.

Now decrease Macron's support by just 5% and see what happens.

What does this mean? It means Macron can ally with LFI and PS (something in itself unlikely), and even the widely impossible EM+FN+LFI+PS alliance would only get a bare majority.

What does that mean? That if just a few Macron voters decide to stay home and not vote, he'll need an alliance with LR to govern, either with a supply and confidence agreement or giving them the PM.

That means they'd be in an excellent position to stop him from making whatever the fuck he wants, and it's in their self interest to start protecting the borders better if they want Le Pen to not win in 2022.


We need to guarantee Macron doesn't get a working majority, at any cost.
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Check why MI6 did the macronleaks there

Other urls found in this thread:

anicetlepors.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/05/04/emanuel-macron-cet-homme-est-dangereux/
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Bernie can still win

He is winning tho. Trump can't get shit through congress.

And if we do our part, same will happen to Macron

I really doubt EM will go anywhere, it is too centrist, and most of his first round voters were low engagement, low info voters, like most centrists are. He'll be facing a good LR majority, I predict

Sending a dub for luck, hopefully meme magic is on our side...

It's ogre

They are expected to win at least 240 out of 577 seats right now

I'd actually want France to fall into civil unrest..
It'd be nice to see Generation Identitaire gain some more members.

He'll lose local elections because his an independent Soros boy
He has no single party backing to speak of, FN has good chance to win this

You're fucking retarded

Did any scandals come out of the leaks yet now France is out of North Korea mode?

Lol no And this isnt local elections. Its the actual legislative elections. They happen in different days.

FN has no chances of getting more than 50 seats

You managed to not influence the race for presidency why not trying to not influence the race to parliament?
Sup Forums lost and still doesn't get it

try fake news again that will work...

>That if just a few Macron voters decide to stay home and not vote, he'll need an alliance with LR to govern, either with a supply and confidence agreement or giving them the PM.
And? What makes you think the LR neocucks or PS libshits won't help Macron?

Not an argument
Just more islamization attempts

They want to win elections. And PS is dead. They'll be lucky if they elect 10 guys

EM will never be able to ally with anybody :
>traditional parties sees Macron like a way for lobbyists to get rid of politicians to do the dirty job themselves
>Some of their candidates are jumping ships and bandwagonning so they will have to face a strong concurrency
>Unlike presidentials, this is a regional elections so all LR candidates won't be weakened by scandals
>PS is dead and same shit as LR
>LFI (commies, leftards and green alliance) and FN are euroskeptics and anti-liberals

But, since LR is a globalist party it won't change anything, LR and PS are a way for Macron to get "opposition" deputies in order to govern easily, french are too stupid to realize that.
24 deputies would be a historical record for FN (but the party is starting to implode)
LFI will probably get more than 60.

TL;DR we're living one hell of an era where the usual political scene/scheme has been shaken up but in the end the country is fucked since the 90s and nothing will change that

EM won't ally with LFI, it just won't happen, but it will probably ally with PS

Why are you posting here then go somewhere else cuck

Is Sarkozy /ourguy/?

It would kill the PS even more if they do thay.
Macron is counting on LR and PS to be french "opposition vote choice" so he can govern easily with liberal laws.
FN will beat their record of 5 deputies (kek) but they're weakened by people getting upset and disappointed who see them now as controlled opposition.
LFI is the biggest problem for liberals but since FN is playing on the same electoral base as them they won't win shit.
LR will win by a narrow margin, they will comply to Macron program, and 2022 elections will be the same shit with EM being the "opposition" choice

And even then it might not get a majority

>FN ahead everywhere
>REM/LR second
>le front republicain
>FN barely gets any seats

Le Pen needs to step down. Pure and simple. If she doesnt the chances that she is just controlled opposition is high

They'd need to change the party's name (she said she'll do this) and their owj surname. She lost 10% just for being Jean-Marie's daughter

this

It's the most retarded system ever

>meme magic
You're going to lose the assembly just like you lost the election--and I hope you lose by a lot so that you finally stop this nonsense.

you have no power over here trudeau

Screencap this: En Marche will not get a majority

The party is corrupted and run by retards and is imploding between several political ways
>Marion maréchal way : basically JMLP traditional FN
>Phillippot way : heavily criticized by the party for his leftism (who paradoxally made them won the worker votes and gain 18% + is the only one with actual debating skills)
>Gaullists and floating voters that keep criticizing both for being controlled opposition and will probably leave for DLF, UPR (sub 5% parties) or even LFI for some workers.

If FN wants to win, they need to get rid of 3rd reich nostalgics, negationnists, and change the party name (and get rid of Le Pen) but it won't happen

I prefer marion but she has 0 chances of winning

Might they not keep going if they get some seats and macron is a disgrace? her voters aren't just gonna shut up and become macronmissiles after all

I feel like that's happening with literally every party in France based on this past election

...

this one is lacking the eu stars on the left and commie symbol on the right

I'd bet on something pertaining to "France First".
With an increased campaign focus, targetting the South of France on border & immigration controls due to "we're full" rhetoric, highlighting the eu freedom of movement and immigration policies as the problem because they promote "free for all, all the time regardless of break-down of services and society" - cut to pictures of Lyon's streets, while the Macron leaks are disseminated by media as they gain access making denial of the EU globalist agenda much harder to deny.
I also wonder if there will be any trucks of peace between now and June 18th...

I don't know, they can keep doing 25-40% election as controlled opoosition for the next 20 years and they can also suffer some dissident parties emerging (Phillipot or even true nationalists than can't handle the social thing).

It kinda is, Lobbyists fucked the two big parties over and put their tool in place. No need to bribe him unlike in the past.

LFI is becoming the new left force
Commies/Greens/Communists are dead
PS is dead and left Social-democrat ideas to Macron who mix them with some ultra-liberal stuff
LR has been weakened and lost elections becaise of scandals but is still the #1 force in the country
FN is imploding and trying to save the ship but who knows what happen.

It was the most exciting election we ever had but also the worst

Trucks of peace won't change anything in a country with a terminal phase cancer. I also put a bet on muslim attacking a school within a year.
Focusing on immigration is the stupidest thing for FN... Thry already got nationalist voters, why trying to convince thrm? they already vote for you ! They should have put that aside and focus on other aspects, also build a real legitimate economic program. They're either dumb as fuck or controlled opoosition, maybe both

if their electoral system wasn't retarded, it might be a good idea to have two parties two appeal to different people

current FN for working class and another one for middle class people with different concerns, kind of what fillon pretended to be doing

>LFI is becoming the new left force
France is fucked. If FN crashes and burns and Macron is a disaster, the people will elect a literal maduro shill and this will 100% fuck france faster than anything

FN needs to survive

The electoral 2 turn system was made at the time to ensure the government power to govern easily and create a two parties thing which had sense in that historical context
But with time and world changing, it became a stupid system that is now the perfect representation of the Condorcet paradox

Burning and crashing is actually the only good thing that can happen. You need to destroy in order to recreate

believe me, you don't want it to crash and burn venezuela style

you want it to crash the EU under a government which agrees with you

FN have lost the actual Far Right elements in the South, the very people they started with, they need to pull them back into the fold.

everyone just follow us, leave the EU before it ruins your economy because it will given time

The system is without doubt retarded, and yeah two parties (or even more maybe) which can ally could be a good approach to broadening their appeal.

Do that and you lose the social thing and former commie voters meaning you still don't get more than 20%

DLF is actually way better at wxposing immigration and sovial problems than FN but they don't have as much money as them and suffer a bobblehead image from their leader

Quick rundown on the frenchie parliament? Why does FN have just so few seats?

every seat is elected the same way the president is

they get 25-35% of the votes and win first place almsot everywhere, but then get btfo in the second turn against whoever they compete against

This.
>get 25% of national votes
>get less than 1% of seats
>muh democracy.

Politicians have been promising a proportional vote for decades to prople getting sick of being misrepresented and not voting anymorr but no one wants to do it because it suits them eay too much, it would be shooting yourself in the foot

Same in the UK, but even their system is more representative

doesn't finland wnat to leave the euro?

BUMPITY BUMP

where the fock are the frogs?

>No UDI umbrella/RRDP umbrella/MRC/Divers Gauche/Divers Droite/EELV
>No single seat MPF, DLF, CNIP, LS, RBM

What the fuck are you smoking you nigger. Granted all of these parties are insignificant alone but that's 70+ seats you're just handing to EM/LR. Those parties have always held a few jurisdictions and have always had their seats and that's not going to change overnight.
Also projecting that Mélenchons menagerie will only get 24 seats is ridiculous.
tl;dr this projection was made by someone with no idea how the National Assembly works.

current composition doesn't have many groups either

Read LR and PS for example as the groups headed by these parties, not just the parties

current seat projections are close to what he says

As someone who voted FN both turn, I will vote Macron for legislative election.

If they want globalism let's give it to them full power. They'll get what they deserve.

That way there will be more happenings, and civil war will come sooner.

People here are way too cucked by the system and media, now we just need the country to burn faster.

nah sorry I want Macron to cuck France 200%, I will only rest easy until French are genocided.

The French were given an opportunity to reclaim their homeland, and they spat in its face and voted to be murdered by Islam and cucked by neoliberalism. They deserve all the misery they will get.

you sound like a bernie fag from reddit

>he can still win

Get the fuck bavk to reddit. fucking the donald is the worst. THe whole plebbit mindset is fucking cancer.

Reoccurring digits confirm Paris has fallen

Fair enough but a lot of this stuff isn't intuitive at all, specially on the far left and center-right.

Macron will also cuck (you) and give shitty brexit terms, this is why MI6 released his emails well you'll get fucked too m8
no, fag, this is more like
>Trump can still be ineffective,
like he is actually being since congress keeps cucking him
Either Macron gets a majority and does what he wants or he gets a hard to work legislative and gets constantly cockblocked

Tu parle français, hueface ?

you'd have to read his algorithm I guess, but he has a lot of other works with political data analysis

hon hon hon

Noirs détruit Brésil !

t. maximillian

these projections are BS for many reason:

* As of today, only 14 candidates are known for EM (out of 577). How can you seriously give half of the elected to completely unknown people in local elections ?
* The chart mention "FdG" (Front de Gauche), which no longer exist (dead in 2015)
* it doesn't mention "LFI" (La France Insoumise), which did a fairly good score (20%ish), and missed the qualification by 613.000 votes.

and most important: this study doesn't mention that a massive amount of Macron voters just voted for him only to ban Le Pen from being elected, but don't want to give to Macron the ability to apply his socially regressive program.

So Macron and EM may face a huge counter-performance.

it's based on people saying "i'll vote for someone from En Marche"

and these are based on polls which are explicitly about the legislative election, not on the data from the 1st round of the presidentielles

so yeah en marche will get a fuckload of seats

BUT TOGETHER WE CAN STOP THIS!

Irrelevant he said he'd rule by executive orders

Can executive orders change legislation in France? And can the assembly do nothing but get cucked?

Not exactly. It's extrapolation on a widened sample of voters, but don't even take into account regional particularities. Also it don't take into account the current political mess in france:

* FN in turnmoil because their score is a counter-performance. Announced they will probably change of name and leadership (not Le Pen, but Philippot is out - he was the guy that won all the lower-class popular votes)

* LR in shambles after loosing an election they should have won, and a fair part of them want to join EM

* PS imploded in 3, most of them jumping to EM

* EELV (Green) are now officially dead

* Commies which did not campaigned are also almost dead

* LFI only them are in good shape, with a credible leader, a credible program, no scandal, well organized and already perceived by everyone as the most credible opponent to Macron. Needless to say that entire MSM is against them: since 1 month it's an all-in attack on LFI, even during the 15 days before the 2nd turn, while they did not even qualify.

That´s some retarded shiet WEW

The french election system is status quo incarnated

well your polls have been quite accurate so far, why would they suddenly go wrong now?

and what should FN call itself?

and redpill me on this, can macron just rule by decree without the assembly being able to block him in france?

this, and it was explicitly designed to protect the status quo

in this krautland has a superior electoral system than most other countries, with overhang seats being the only problem methinks

Do the french need to go to the voting booth fucking 5 times each election?

No wonder no ones bothers to vote.

two rounds for the presidential election, two rounds for the assembly election, then there's the senate elections which are indirect, and then on other years there's Regional, Departemental, Municipal and European elections

I can't asnwer due to cnx error

> well your polls have been quite accurate so far, why would they suddenly go wrong now?

legislatives is very different, as it's local. And the completely new situation can't fit to a previously known scheme.

and what should FN call itself?
Les patriotes or something like that

>Can executive orders change legislation in France? And can the assembly do nothing but get cucked?


Long story short: yes, there is several ways for the president to pass law via executive orders, however they are all limited at some very specific subject, and in any case, assembly can cancel the executive order/law with a simple majority

this happens to me sometimes now. If you break it into different posts it usually works

are they historically more inaccurate than presidential ones?

That's what I wanted to know, so he can't just rule by decree.

Is it like brazil where the order becomes law and then can be repealed afterwards, or does it have to be approved before becoming law?

>are they historically more inaccurate than presidential ones?

Yes. There is strong specificities to local situations. 1 circonscription is 75k people. Running 577 polls on significant samples in each circonscription is just impossible (and would be very expensive). So they merely use global figure, with a bonus to the actual deputy if he represent, and a lot of hand-made hypothesis.

In some places it's working, in other not really.

And once again, the situation is really very different. 5 big parties while we used to have only 3

Well, Ordonnance (which is the equivalent of executive order) must be pre-approved by parliament.

So, the gov. must tell the parliament exactly what he want to put in the decree, and the parliament just grant him the right to promulgate the law without further discussion in the parliament.

So it's just avoiding discussion, but parliament must pre-approve the law

>So, the gov. must tell the parliament exactly what he want to put in the decree, and the parliament just grant him the right to promulgate the law without further discussion in the parliament.
why the fuck would they give him carte blanche to pass legislation without it being discussed?

how do you expect the assembly to look like after the election?

also all laws can be cancelled. That's the principle of democracy

>why the fuck would they give him carte blanche to pass legislation without it being discussed?

To speed up the process. But you're right, it's not used often as deputies don't like it.
Yet this time, Macron claimed that's what he will use to harden the laws on workforce.

Also I can't develop, but Macron is not a democrat, and want to replace democracy in decision by technocracy. He want to divide the number of deputies and senators by 2, and replace a lot of democratic decision making by autocratic ones.


>how do you expect the assembly to look like after the election?

Macron will probably not have the majority (61% of his voters saying that they don't want him to obtain it).
He will be engaged in a cohabitation with LR (right) which will allow him to pass most of his "c'est mon projeeeeeeeeeeet"

My wish: a landslide win for LFI, but it's unlikely.

>Also I can't develop, but Macron is not a democrat

I mean, I have arguments, but it's not the place for that and it would be too much time wasted.

if you read French :

anicetlepors.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/05/04/emanuel-macron-cet-homme-est-dangereux/

>Macron will probably not have the majority
pic related, this is why

what are the chances of a MI6 coup like KGB in turkey?

Got damn frogs have so many elections.

Sweden got all this shit rolled into one

>MI6 = ourguys

lolno

they are literally JTRIG and spam this board with all sorts of shit

MI5 are /ourguys/

Yeah, overhang is retarded bullshit, but surely nothing compared to the french system.

At the moment the AfD, even though they are only getting 10-15%, they are fucking up our political establishment, because they have to consider retarded coalitions with many small partners, who are ideologically anti-establishment too (Linke) or with partners who hate each other (fdp/grüne). When the Afd gets 25% + then we will be heading for reich again soon, that much I can tell you. It will be just like the shit that happened in the Weimar Republic.

yes t b h

LMAO at macrons life. He´ll be like Trump only as a leftie.

Fuck France, they dug their own grave.

Am I banned

bernie wins

>Also I can't develop, but Macron is not a democrat, and want to replace democracy in decision by technocracy. He want to divide the number of deputies and senators by 2, and replace a lot of democratic decision making by autocratic ones.
Didnt see fake news focusing on that bit

No it isn't. The projection on your screenshot is based on previous elections.

>French people
Nobody can uncuck these faggots, only they can do that. The longer it takes, the more blood it will require.

Overhang is necessary to keep proportionality, but is too complicated