Who wants to hear the story of the yield curve?

Who wants to hear the story of the yield curve?

Other urls found in this thread:

reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-idUSL1N1JK1C0
marketwatch.com/story/goldman-says-stock-markets-goldilocks-environment-wont-last-long-2017-06-12
businessinsider.com/biotech-drugmakers-healthcare-new-stock-market-champion-2017-6
businessinsider.com/ethereum-price-flash-crash-2017-6
coinmarketcap.com
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/06/22/this-is-a-hakuna-matata-market/#51fb440b5b7f
wsj.com/articles/the-quants-run-wall-street-now-1495389108
ft.com/content/4f2af056-57a9-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2?mhq5j=e2
reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-mester-inflation-idUSKBN19E24D
marketwatch.com/story/this-is-when-investors-should-start-worrying-about-rising-bond-yields-2017-02-23
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

what is it?

Does it have big tits?

POST IT YOU STUPID NIGGER

Friends, its a very long story.

As this will take me some time to prepare, I will slowly post links with relevant information.

If one would like to make a lot of money off a surefire market move, one should follow this thread.

Well?

First Link

reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-idUSL1N1JK1C0

Hold on, does any of this matter to those of us without money?

Been trading for years, this should be good. Not the first holy grail I've seen being offered

I'm laughing at how autistic op is

"a surefire market move" topkek

Also relevant to this thread, is the current political climate.

My peers believe that one 'catalyst' can send these chain of events off much quicker then I think they will happen, but the consensus is by August an idiot will see what is happening.

$500 in options can land you roughly $100k if everything is happening the way I think it will, but, if you do not have money to spare my advice is be an extremely beneficial worker to whatever company you owe your loyalty to.

While I appreciate the trust, make your own decisions. I am purely providing information.

Poorly worded I agree. It's more of a 'Macro' move. I hope your mother doesn't know you use a Nazi Flag on a Mongolian Image Board.

what options you talking about bruh? Index puts?

>whatever company you owe your loyalty to
I don't work, have minimal savings, abhor any sort of gambling and have severe mistrust of anybody offering to handle my money or offering opportunity.
Doesn't mean you're not for real, just that I'm paranoid and mistrustful. My idea of investing is prepping non-perishable food caches.
Have a bump anyway, just because it's not for me doesn't mean it's shit.

The next piece of information is very important, and I will provide multiple examples of this phenomena.

Become familiar with this phrase;
'A Flight From Risk To Safety'.

marketwatch.com/story/goldman-says-stock-markets-goldilocks-environment-wont-last-long-2017-06-12
businessinsider.com/biotech-drugmakers-healthcare-new-stock-market-champion-2017-6
businessinsider.com/ethereum-price-flash-crash-2017-6

And finally, become familiar with the total market cap of the 'crypto' market, shown here.

coinmarketcap.com

I'm not the largest fan of Put Options unless one is over 75% certain of the move.
Make your own choices, as I am going to purely to provide information and then my conclusion based on the information provided.

For someone in your situation, you may not even notice a difference (unless the tension this causes creates an unstable political climate), but just the same you can impress your peers with the knowledge you can gain from purely reading the links I'm providing.

Complacency is the next theme.

I am not a fan of complacency.

forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/06/22/this-is-a-hakuna-matata-market/#51fb440b5b7f

We will now look at who controls the majority of moves on Wall St.

wsj.com/articles/the-quants-run-wall-street-now-1495389108

I WANT TO HEAR THE STORY OF THE SNEEEEL!! TOLD BY DOLAN HIMSELF!!! PLEASE OP, CAN YOU DO THIS FOR MEEE??

based user

>>For someone in your situation, you may not even notice a difference
>tfw rural dirt-peasants are insulated against market volatility
This thread deserves a few more bumps, compared to the trash elsewhere on the board. Lurking to try and read what the fuck is going to happen.

Finally, we will tie some of the information together for those who did not read some of the articles.

Then I will write my conclusion with supporting evidence.

Ethereum is a 'crypto' currency on a now very large, completely unprotected marketplace. This marketplace is now worth roughly $100bn. Ethereum went from $320 to $.10 because of a new trend of completely automated trading. Prior to this, the crypto market has already been weak (compared to the month of May where my son made $10k), and now the crypto market is continuing a down trend because of large amounts of money being withdrawn due to inherent risk of this marketplace;

'A Flight From Risk to Safety'

WHAT IS SAFE

'A Flight From Risk to Safety'

This has already been noticed in protected markets, such as NASDAQ and NYSE. Tech stocks have been sideways or in a downtrend, and Healthcare stocks are showing gains. This phenomena in the past have indicated larger market downtrends. 'Crypto' as of today has taken a huge hit and seems to show no signs of slowing. This is not the only piece of evidence.

Hi Martin, I'm a fan :>

Send eth to a poor soul :(

0xa397078a3b31b7566c6da1f8bdeec69ce50a1f0d

Far, far away from others. There is no other form of safety, just illusions of it.
So digital currency is taking a huge shit right now, is that the takeaway?

I now return to the issue of automated trading. As of writing this almost all markets are dominated by 'Quant' firms, or completely algorithmic trading.

There are various ways that quant firms trade, more on that later.

For those that pay attention to the markets, it is almost clear to the naked eye looking at intra-day trading that algorithms are manipulating price, shown in the attached picture.

For those unfamiliar with markets, the bumps in the picture were without reason and when looking at 'Candle-Stick' charts the fluctuations could be predicted by a small child.

You should listen.

tl;dr

OP is suggesting to watch the crypto markets as everyone will be pulling out and we'll see a return of prominent currency to minimal buy-in levels which could or could not be also forced by people trying to make even more money when the currency crashes.

Invest when things like Eth or BTC is low, even 500$, and get a ridiculous return in the future as the markets becomes safe again.

Not Martin, but a empathizer with his situation.

No.

No.

Another link I provided shows the current state of the bond market.

I will post it again here, as it speaks for itself;

reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-idUSL1N1JK1C0

Then quit linking non-archived paywall/adblocked websites and maybe someone might be able to glean whatever the fuck it is you're trying to convey.

If you are not able to get past a simple paywall then you should not be following this thread,

I shouldn't have to archive every page myself just to read it. I own land, convince me this is better than that.

Me as well, feel free to send eth anyways.

Seriously though, once pension funds begin to fail as is seen in Illinois, do you think the bond market will ready?

I don't see the prospects as very bright. The fed has tough times ahead.

If I was a Central Bank, why don't I print money and keep purchasing shares, because the money I print has an extremely low money velocity and therefore doesn't create inflation? Even if the general economy declines, as a Central Bank, I can ensure that stock prices remain high forever. Right? What am I missing from this story. All the doomers have been wrong to date, and the Globalists have at least won the argument about QE. What evidence do you have to offer to prove otherwise?

T. Family with Private Banking.

>to date

Next we will look at in progress Macro trends with more depth, with a focus on inflation and the Federal Banks 'Hawkish' Attitude,

The Federal Banks of the United States believe that the economy is strong, as shown by various statements from representatives;

ft.com/content/4f2af056-57a9-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2?mhq5j=e2

Inflation (and the bond market) disagrees;
reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-mester-inflation-idUSKBN19E24D

Fucking retarded logic

>let me explain stuff but make it hard to even know what the fuck I'm even explaining and gate it

If you are so certain of no correction, however slight, then why are you reading this thread?

As I was posting I was writing my conclusion, it is almost ready.

Again, make your own conclusions, with your own information, I am here purely to share.

Dude. If Inflation ever actually returns to the market, the Globalists and Socialists are fuuuuuuuucccccckkkkkkeeeedddddd. Oh god. It would be the apocalypse for George Soros and Bernie Sanders.

Please continue.

I appreciate your insights OP. Don't get me wrong. But QE is the golden-haired first born son of Globalism. It's the only part of this regime that is functional. Remove QE from the paradigm, and Globalism has nothing.

Bumping just because I'm thankful for quality posts. I miss the old CIA shills :/ now it's all just hate threads

Deflation would be worse for those with high debt to income ratios, aka almost entire u.s. population.

It'll be one or the other, I'm hoping inflation with my crypto holdings.

Does the recent fed portfolio reduction play into your prediction / theory?

If it's Deflation, then that gives TREMENDOUS power to Socialists and Globalists. Money printing and entitlement programs not only become feasible, but necessary. Deflation is the far better scenario for the Left, because the Left has ways of dealing with Deflation. Remember. Deflation is what put FDR into power in the US.

Bump. Let's hear it

That's what I am afraid of, but I don't think the Fed is hitting inflation targets, they are higher than 2% from what I can tell.

But deflation could be painted as a way to help student loan and mortgage debt, yet would be a long term catastrophe.

They always portray it to be lower because that way they can print more

And in a deflationary environment, they can afford to print money. It becomes economically and politically the right play.

I'm assuming you're speaking Fed specific, because in a deflationary period they could increase the money supply greatly for 'dem programs and quickly destroy what would generally be a good period for normal people.

I am of the opinion that from roughly Mid July to Late January the U.S. economy will enter a Bear Market.

I am unsure of the effects, and I am unsure of the 'depth' of the drop, but I can say with roughly 70% certainty that we are seeing numerous precursors for a bear market.

The Bond Market typically foreshadows Stock Market movement, and we are seeing levels equivalent to December 2007, shown by a link from Reuters now posted twice.

We are seeing complacency and companies with objectively minimal value get admired for being 'paragons' in this market. Lyft and Uber are valued at $7.5 Billion and $50 Billion respectively. These companies are just placeholders, they do not provide the service they are simply the way that the consumer and the service provider come in contact, so what value do these companies actually provide? A 'good looking' interface? These examples are the first ones that come to mind and one can look at 'Social-Media' applications for other examples.

'A Flight From Risk to Safety' shows that this bear market may already be occurring. If 'Crypto' continues its downfall it shows that large amounts of money (therefore powerful people) are of the opinion that not only can 'Crypto' not last ($100bn for a completely unproven product? who can actually find good examples of prominent people truly believing that this form of currency will replace government operated ones), but the fact that this complacent market can not last.

The Fed is raising rates without U.S. economy strength. I am not going into an economic lesson to explain this, Inflation targets are being completely missed yet the fed remains irrationally hawkish.

The Ethereum crash shows a larger issue, automated trading is dangerous and can be abused, If a hedge fund decides on monday to change its stance from bullish to neutral, pulling large sums of money from the S&P 500, how will Algos react? I do not expect a complete crash but the uncertainty is threatening

cont

Pretty much in the same boat as you but I'm also interested in what OP has to say

Actually, there would be only positive consequences for America if we jacked up government spending, gave out entitlement programs, and printed more money in a deflationary environment. Deflation is like bizzaro economics, in that you are rewarded for doing nothing in the economy rather than investing in the economy to generate growth. People put up with inflation because deflation is so much worse.

I am reformatting, the 2000 character limit makes my conclusion read awkwardly.

But yields should rise in that period as well.

Dude. If it's anything like the Great Depression, people will be DESPERATE to invest in ANYTHING. You have to understand that back in the 30's, nobody had any money, therefore no business could sell anything, which meant that there was no point in investing in businesses. Only the government was buying goods and services, in the forms of roads and entitlement programs, so the government was the 'last growing enterprise' so to speak. Hitler understood this as well, so did Japan, which was why they boomed in the 30's (not to mention the Soviets also did very well in that period.)

People always prefer to put their money in business, because business is efficient. But when the businesses die off, only then do they go to the Government.

The Great Depression, while a deflationary period, is not indicative of all deflationary periods or even most deflationary periods. Nor is a depression always associated with deflation.

marketwatch.com/story/this-is-when-investors-should-start-worrying-about-rising-bond-yields-2017-02-23

>The Great Depression, while a deflationary period, is not indicative of all deflationary periods or even most deflationary periods. Nor is a depression always associated with deflation.

True. But take a look at Japan as another example. Japan was the very first to pioneer QE and they have a debt ratio of something stupid like 300 Debt-to-GDP. Yet did their yields rise during this crisis? No. Because people were again willing to put their money with the government because the businesses were no longer growing by leaps and bounds. So the point still stands, that government becomes an attractive investment target when private enterprise fails to attract investment from a lack of demand.

I can not continue

I am sorry for providing a half finished story

I am unsure if I will be able to reply to future posts in this thread

Way to be a cock-tease, OP.

Loool

Is it Candlejack? Did he ge

Dude it's the internet no one cares just post your stuff. Tell me: is Kansas safe?

Explain. Now.

When was the last tIme a presidenT wIth full majoritieS in all parts of government COuld not pass through caMpaIgN promises?

Corruption?

Lies?

Why is it that the Fed remains irrationally hawkish?

It is not backed by economic data.

When looking at the current market state, why is it so close to all time highs?

Personally, do you feel confident in the future of this country?

Does anyone you know feel confident?

Then why is it up?

On what basis?

What is holding it up?

Complacency?

.

fuck off with your gay ass candlejack bullsh

nigga went to diversify his bonds most likely

IDK what you are implying, but if the plan is to crash the economy in order to implement a new agenda, that's the equivalent of burning your house down with you trapped inside it. If you survive the carnage, then you can rebuild the house to whatever you want. But only if you survive.

Shock doctrine works better when you attempt to burn someone else's house down, because then you are guaranteed to survive AND you get to build a new house.

Hello zerohedge! Yes please tell us about the yield curve

I've got $500

Then post in

sorry

>ITS COMING

When the next crash comes they need to be able to drop rates to try and deal with it. The problem is that we're late in the cycle, the recovery in the real economy has been anemic at best, and they've papered over the problems with QE, blowing a series of asset bubbles in the process. The next one will be quite the show.

Gonna bottom out soon buy buy buy!

ITS COMIN

Wait... So it's a pyramid scheme?
Don't say another word...
... I'm in.

OP is saying that financial collapse is imminent, we are going back to 2008

Strap yourselves in, boys.

WCLWITWPDTOWC.

which coin do I buy now?

I got in when etherium was near it's peak, lost about 50 bucks just buying different coins and moving them around. Sitting on some eth and waves and dogeshit

what do i put my money into?

Memecoin

kek I love this image but bancor fags are getting BTFO really hard right about now

Litecion

Eth at its peak?

I remember when bitcoins were £10 per. Now they are £2000 per.

Eth is what, £30 per at the moment or something? Sensible bet is just to buy in with an amount you can afford to lose, and then hope it starts to climb like bitcoin did.

2 spoopy 4 me

I'm still not convinced that if the shit hits the fan they (the government, banks) won't pull the plug on crypto conversion to fiat. There are limited channels out of crypto, and I've heard enough stories of accounts being frozen to make me leery.

more like 237ish right now, not 30

What did you do?

Bump

Yea eth is about 300 USD right now, you scared me and I looked at my wallet

0xF6fa61ED6eb7d2f6CfFF6b0110C05F5BDc21A302

if anyone is feeling generous, I got really into this for a few days but now im just sitting on about 100$ worth.

People living in shitty, dirty carpet, one bedroom apartment, trying to give life financial advice on /pol.

Give me a break.

OP is a fag

orlly, didn't know that, been thinking about buying in a few grand just to see if it spikes the same way bitcoin did. I can afford to lose the money / leave it there for years.

Maybe, but you can stash it on a bitcoin drive and im sure there will be some country somewhere that will still allow them, even if other countries / banks start clamping down.

I put £10,000 in bitcoin a few months back, when it dropped to £700.00, its up to £2000 now.

Same here. I will see if this cunt has an idea and I'll follow it and see what happens.

if this happens I'm going to be making bank selling some fiat for thousands of bitcoins

the cat is out of the bag, there is no way this isn't mooning again and again

finish your damn thread op

Hey OP, reporting in from /biz/

You're a complete fucking idiot. Don't set stop losses on crypto and why the fuck would you margin trade ether is the moral of the flash crash. Holy shit lmao

Fair enough, but have you ever actually tried to get any money out?

op is remedial