Did Trump singlehandedly reset the business cycle...

Did Trump singlehandedly reset the business cycle? We're long overdue for an economic crash but it seems that with the election we just skipped right over that. Are we still destined to collapse and if so where is it coming from and how do we deal with it?

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businessinsider.com/subprime-auto-loans-are-a-reminder-of-the-housing-crisis-2017-4
archive.is/knOHD
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It's coming. Keep an eye on the EU. Keep an eye on Asia (Japan and China)

I feel like those problems are much further away than the immediate 2 years.

Oh it's still coming. Federal Reserve just started cranking interest rates back up again a year or so ago. Stock market is also at record highs. There will be a correction, has to be, rates have been held artificially low for close to a decade.

Nope. Europe is heading for collapse by the end of 2017. Should be starting then.

Hamburg was the start of something bigger.

But they protest every G20 in the same way. It's been popular to say that collapse is right around the corner for the last 5 years, but somehow every institution is able to continue to avoid and prop themselves up. What will be the bomb for the EU by the end of the year?

We're not looking at a stock crash. Stock markets may crash, but the real risk is in sovereign debt. That's a collapse in government funding. A collapse in the debt which is bought from government. It's why stock markets are so inflated as user pointed out.

It means civil unrest, war, collapsing stability. Also potentially the destruction of confidence in currency.

In short: potentially the fragmentation of the Eurozone and possible civil war in Europe. You can see evidence now with Italian and Spanish banks going under, Greece being bent over a table, etc. It takes a long time for these collapses to play out (last one was over the 1931 - 1949 roughly and culminated in WW2). Things are just heating up.

>Hamburg was the start of something bigger.
This, just like the vast majority of other happenings, will be long forgotten within 7 to 10 days from now.

Keep an eye on subprime auto loans. Thats a huge threat. Every asshole had been getting approved since big dealerships moved into the subprime loans. That is changing an a huge pull back is coming. Housing market bubble all over agaib

Gold and silver prices have plunged. Also the battle in Mosul will create a vacuum on the Iraqi Dinar.

>It means civil unrest, war, collapsing stability. Also potentially the destruction of confidence in currency.

Things it does not mean and stuff that will never happen.

For example: one among the many reasons that war will not happen in the western world is the sheer laziness of the people. Only keyboard warriors proclaim that they would go into battle within an heartbeat. The closest experience to war they will ever get is joining a game server from their comfy chair in their airconditioned basements.

Serious question: would gold and silver be valuable or should I invest my fiat into tools and other survival gear

Guns at all time lows. But them up

If you look back at happenings for the last 15 years, the steady progression from good to shitty is unbelievable. We're accelerating towards something bad.

Germany is very much a glass cannon economy. They are very precariously positioned right now. People are looking at the US and the UK, but to a large degree the US and UK banks have recapitalized whereas the European banks have not. Germany is right in the center of it all and when their political system starts to unravel it will be international investors stampeding for the exits to any European assets, or any European financial institution.

Germany's political system has been co-opted. Any vote there is a vote for external interests. Their largest bank (one of the biggest in the world) is a clearing house for every other mainland European financial institution. Their GDP has boomed in recent years due to artificially low exchange rates via the Euro and consumers are no longer buying.

In addition they have a bloated welfare system and have taken a huge number of foreigners into their borders. Many of whom are unemployable.

Germany is heading for destruction. Screencap this.

There is a lot of subprime debt out there right now. The biggest subprime bubble is in student loans.

Most Student loans are subsadize. High interest car loans are not.

also
>itt people that do not understand that money is created ex nihilo

>Debt does not matter.
t. Paul Krugman

>You never default when you print the money
t. Donald Trump

[two persons who understand the (((System)))]

businessinsider.com/subprime-auto-loans-are-a-reminder-of-the-housing-crisis-2017-4

archive.is/knOHD

This is technically true, but defaults do happen. The question is whether they are orderly or disorderly.

An orderly default might be something like an extension of sov. bond maturities. Or an uptick in inflation.

Disorderly default will be things like Venezuela (hyperinflation).

Either way, extend and pretend does not work. Default will occur, and largely has been for the last 8 years. That's why stability will break up, and why there was a 2nd world war - an existential threat to every society distract the masses from Sov. default. We have nukes now. That means world war is a very bad idea. That puts the likelihood of civil unrest and civil war at a much higher probability.

You sound very reasonable from an vantage point "under the dome"

You fail to realize however that above all resides the (((System))) which is an entirely artificial construct.

There is no economy,
There is no financial system,
There is no money,
There is no debt.

There is only the (((System))) upheld by an perpetual cycle of voluntary and involuntary as well as conscious and unconscious participation of human beings.

It's a virus of the mind.

You're veering off topic into a philosophical debate. If you think the economy has no grounding in reality, you are severely mistaken.

The distinction between "real" and "financial" is a distinction any financier or economist would make, but to think that one does not operate without the other is pretty crazy. It also tells you have the education in this matter of your average Antifag. Stop watching edgy Youtube videos on politics and current affairs like "The Four Horsemen" and "Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis"

Financial systems do improve efficiency in the real economy and allow for the removal of (some) risks. Our current usurious financial system is not something that should be celebrated, but to pretend that the real economy would not be affected if we wiped the slate clean would be ridiculous. There would be winners and losers.

Doesn't that usually signal optimism in the economy?

is this the next /biz/ prank?

>It's a virus of the mind.

All your assumptions stem from this.

You assume these things to be rational conclusions of something akin to natural or universal law.

It isn't though. It is only a construct in your and other people's minds.

You are blinded by the (((System))) as much so you can't even imagine a state without it's omnipresence.

Hence you argue and defend the (((System))) as it were a natural order.

>It also tells you have the education in this matter of your average Antifag. Stop watching edgy Youtube videos on politics and current affairs like "The Four Horsemen" and "Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis"

You are here:

>It's a virus of the mind.
Says the person with Marxist views.

Dude what the fuck.

It signals a hunt for yield. Institutions selling non-yield assets (which gold and silver are) in an attempt to recapitalize and find something which is giving them a 1 or 2% return over the next 5 years.

Tools and gear first. Later comes the bullion.

A state is an institution implemented by the common people in order to maintain and defend the people and their works. It's not some hippy shit, a state that "exists" but doesn't is Somalia. We are not Somalia- we are America and our state is very defined and articulated through other small states- a collection of nations with their own constitutions and rule of law United to protect and amplify the power of the individual smaller states.

What you describe were once ideas in someones mind.

Accepted in the minds of others.

Upheld by voluntary and involuntary participation in a (((System))) that originated in someone's mind.

Perpetuated by memetics.

In it's core it is artificial.

People have more or less forgotten the primary function of precious metals to an individual. I agree tools are better than PMs starting out. Food and water is also good. Land if you can hold onto it.

What do you think about physics and mechanical engineering then? Mathematical proofs and so on? Also memes and only existing because people believe in them?

are trump's achievements really so shit that you have to make things up in their stead?

>COLLAPSE BY THE END OF THE YEAR!

I've heard this shit every single year since 1999

faggot

I didn't say collapse by the end of the year. I said things will start to unravel in Europe by the end of the year, but it might last several years.

I referenced the last period of sov. default as (approximately) 1931 - 1949.

I didn't dispute it wasn't man-made. I clearly said it was implemented by the common people. It's not appropriate to designate whether or not participating is voluntary or involuntary. If you live within it's boundaries- you cannot "opt-out" Only by living in a different institution can you opt out of another's projection. Jim Jones learned that the hard way and so did the hippies.

So we arent talking about the fucking market ?

...

What do I do when it happens

Should I buy some gold now?

Fed wants thcollapse to happen firmly on trumps watch

People watching the Fed but ECB and BOJ are in deeper shit.

>screencap this
For (you).

it doesn't fucking matter, retard. ideas in the mind are just as real as the bag of cheetos you are eating.

Thanks. If I'm wrong, repost. I'll own up. And just to be clear I am expecting a major political happening in Germany between August and January that is the start of the next crisis.

The EU won't disappear overnight. It should be enough to spook investors in sov. debt to flee Europe as it progresses.

no. There is nothing Trump can do to avoid the next crash. The fed has once again done its damage.

True shit

No, the business cycle was never reset.
The recovery just took longer than usual so the gap between the previous two recessions (2001 and 2008) was much shorter than between 2008 and the next one.
The next recession will likely be a relatively short/mild recession in the early 2020's, followed by a medium-sever recession in the late 2020s/early 2030s.
If there are any corrections in the market, it could prolong the next recession.
Just keep an eye on the yield curve and when it goes negative you know there will be a recession in 1-2 years.