>Since July 2012 – so over the past five years – the trailing 12-month earnings per share of all the companies in the S&P 500 index rose just 12% in total. Or just over 2% per year on average. Or barely at the rate of inflation
>These are not earnings under the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) but “adjusted earnings” as reported by companies to make their earnings look better.
>This is the most optimistic earnings number. It’s the number that data provider FactSet uses for its analyses, and these adjusted earnings seen in the most favorable light grew only a little over 2% per year on average for the S&P 500 companies over the past five years, or 12% in total
>Yet, over the same period, the S&P 500 Index itself soared 80%.
>bankruptcies are surging as the “credit cycle” exacts its pound of flesh
FEDERAL RESERVE PLANNING MARKET CRASH BEFORE 2018
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>Something big changed since 2000. It can be seen in the employment-population ratio, which tracks people over 16 years of age who have jobs
>From the 1960s until 2000, the ratio fell during recessions, but then during the recovery regained all the lost ground plus some, ratcheting up to new records after each recession
>since the ratio’s peak in April 2000 at 64.7%, a new pattern has developed. As before, the ratio drops before the official recession begins and keeps dropping until after the recession has ended. But when employment recovers, the ratio ticks up only slowly, recovering only a fraction of the ground lost
>the ratio plunged from 63.4% to 58.2% in November 2010 and again in June and July 2011. It plunged 5.2 percentage points in 4.5 years
>But the employment-population ratio only made it to 60.1%. It regained only 1.9 percentage points, after having plunged 5.2 percentage points. In other words, after seven-plus years of jobs recovery, it has regained less than one-third of what it had lost:
>Since the bottom of the employment crisis in February 2010, the economy has created 16.7 million jobs as measured by nonfarm payrolls. During the same time, the population has grown by 16.7 million people. Not all of this population growth is working age. But this is the problem that the employment-population ratio depicts: jobs are being created, but not enough for the dual task of absorbing the growth in the working-age population and in putting people back to work who lost their jobs during the recession.
>During the next employment downturn, the employment-population ratio will get crushed — from a much lower base than during the prior recessions. And even as the economy recovers afterwards and generates 150,000 to 220,000 jobs a month, the employment-population ratio will barely budge higher and will recapture only a fraction of the ground lost during the recession.
Nah, shit's gonna be fine. Bull market's gonna keep on trucking - Buy, baby, buy!
Ron Paul was right again
In short, the problem facing the Fed right now is that they either need unemployment to quickly rise a few points, or else inflation is going to accelerate out control
They'll crash it and let Trump be the scapegoat
We're about on time for another recession and for most of the population, the current recession never ended
They are going crash the dollar, Not the market.
Money will pour into the market.
So we might have a 50,000 DOW but also have $11 for a gallon of gas.
>They are going crash the dollar, Not the market.
How to profit if all you have is cash?
WITH NO SURVIVORS!
Wouldn't it be hard to "crash" the market if the market is expecting it?
Gold.
>if the market is expecting it?
Markets are used to the eternal QE and being endlessly pumped
Watch Goldman to see when the hammer is going to drop
Don't be a fool, the U.S. Dollar is the choice currency by nearly the entire world.
A crashing U.S. Dollar would trigger a global depression, leveling Rich and Poor to the same wealth class and crashing the rest of the world currencies like Dominoes.
Do you really think the rich bastards in charge would let that happen?
see
Also assuming they merely knock the markets rather than kick off WWIII you might think about holding some cash aside to buy into what could be a pretty significant dip.
I've got an overexposure to treasuries at the moment that I'll be reallocating next time we get a good solid market correction.
What do you think of BTC as a store of value vs dollar?
Should I just wait for a big correction and buy a mutual fund or something? Is there a smarter option for a know-nothing??
We will be fine. Knock it off with the fear porn. The market depends on confidence. It's an illusion anyways.
If you don't really know what you're doing mutual funds aren't a terrible choice. I've got a bunch of savings locked up in a 401(k) where I don't have a lot of options for what to do with it, so in my case I would transfer a bunch of funds out of the treasury-based fund into one or more market-based funds.
I'll have to take a look at what the available fund offerings are to see if there are any I think that might be significant growth areas. But my default option will be the "figure it out for me like I'm dumb and shift my risk ratio automatically over time as if I'm going to be retiring in 2050" type funds. Last time I checked, they do relatively well for somebody who isn't going to go in and rejigger things all the time.
If you value your money go with gold.
If you are willing to risk big dolla you may succeed and gain more with Bitcoin.
rofl
oh boy, I can't wait for this to not happen.
as all the happening threads on this board.
Wow.
Everyone is clueless. Even on Sup Forums, people really don't know.
The dollar will begin to experience hyperinflation this Summer. Yes, as in a few weeks to a month from today.
And don't think (((they))) would do anything to stop it. They're asses are already covered.
precious metals, cryptocurrency, and actual assets
so silver, gold, bitcoin, real estate, etc. real shit
the only way to profit is with real shit. no more monopoly money
That would interfere too much with US geopolitical force projection unless it were done in concert with the rest of the world suffering as much or worse.
For now they can just let existing problems with e.g. state budgets, pensions, and commercial real estate continue to worsen. That should be enough to start applying pressure that would eventually result in forcing government action, which is really the main strategic use of having kept the current bull market going as long as it has (other than keeping the major players in power).
So you guys are saying to short the dollar?
Count me in
>owe nobody money
>have tens of thousands in bank
>work for self in robust market
Let the stock price hit the floor.
>implying real estate isn't an actual asset
and all these assets are already super expensive. fuck me
HAPPENING CONFIRMED.
for real this time
whoops, read the post wrong, also I suck cock
I'd be weary of any sort of 'on paper' investment. I mean you could short the dollar but vs. what? Another fiat currency that may or may not shit the bed a little bit less? Be careful senpai.
They should let it happen and Trump can pull off another Reagan or Harding/Coolidge.
The official LFPR is still near modern lows. This is despite more women entering the workforce, which means that males are the ones dropping out. Women are working in sectors like "healthcare" that suck up money but don't really provide a lot of productivity for the broader economy. It all bodes poorly.
that's the idea
Pukey Janet Yellen gets on stage and announces there will never be another crash, months before she directly causes one!
ready comprehension bro. I said it was.
youtube.com
if your gonna tease the song fucking post it cunt
I mean, I'm not saying palpable economic collapse this summer guise.
But, the hyperinflation will begin, and the wealth transfer out of fiat currency will begin this summer.
you can buy fractional amounts of bitcoin. even just a couple bucks.
...
Convince me that this "FED crash" won't be fake and gay like all the others
>BTC as a store of value
Look at Venezuela, that was just a test to see how bad they can make it for all of us.... they pushed Opec to over produce oil production and crash the price of oil... killing the socialist country that was only surviving because of their oil.
They won't do it and here's why because of automation the next crash they cause they won't be able to control the situation and they need the robot armies in place.
Hence they can't fuck Trump without fucking themselves.
...
We might be using different version of hyperinflation. I regard that as a situation where inflation takes off to the point where you start to come around the belly of the J curve where it runs away.
While I do think we'll continue to see increasing inflation, I don't think they're going to intentionally let it get out of hand at this juncture. Doesn't seem necessary or desirable.
lol
Yes that they can do since it won't cause massive unemployment levels it will just wipe out savers...
Ok there are a few major flaws:
1. The last 5 years have been years after a recovery. Don't forget about 2008.
Many companies still have not reached their value pre-2008 niveau.
2. What about buyback? Is that part of your equation as well?
Companies use quite a lot of their money for buying back shares, this has an effect as well.
That said even if markets rushed back to their 'adjusted value' there may be a point when they have reached it. The question is:
If markets trade future, where in the future are we exactly now under which assumed parameters?
Please fucking do. Please please please. I've finally gotten debt free and have cash to buy in when the crash hits, and I literally can't be fired from my job.
If the crash hits at just the right moment and drags on a good year or so, I could easily set myself up FOR LIFE. So please do let it crash.
good the kike killing can begin in 2018 then. This is what shot Hitler to power. 1488
...
If you're really that scared about a market correction, just go full value and load up on low P/E, low P/FCF stocks.
If someone tells you to put your money in gold, snicker at them and walk away.
PMs are the best inflation hedge.
Guns guns guns. & ammo hahaha xdxd
Good idea for part of your portfolio. Weapons are typically a good store of value, and getting some now would represent buying low.
why cant you get fired from your job?
Military. I've got a contractual obligation that doesn't end for at least the next 6 years. Starting next month all I'm doing is stacking cash because all my bills are paid off.
Contractual obligations are a very bad thing to have in an inflationary scenario, unless payment specifically adjusts for inflation.
If that's true, you've got more to do to be safe. Start moving money you can live without into foreign currencies in safety deposit boxes in other the country of those currencies. When the dollar crashes the Feds won't be able to electronically steal that money from your account or destroy it with hyperinflation. As long as the currency is relatively stable your "money" won't disappear. John T. Reed, an economically redpilled real estate guy, has detailed how to do this on his blog.
If shit gets bad though you could reasonably expect currency controls that would make it even more difficult to get whatever you have stashed in a foreign country than usual.
oy vey no more shekels?
...
TENDENCY FOR RATE OF PROFIT TO FALL
>Everyone is clueless. Even on Sup Forums, people really don't know.
They are too heavily invested in the (((system))). Can't wait to see it all go up in smoke.
So what do we do? Buy silver and gold?
An-cap here. The most effective way people learn is by their mistakes.
Right wing libertarians are always right.
Janusz Korwin Mikke
Ron Paul
Christopher Cantwell
And in the far future
Hans Herman Hoppe
Good luck to you when the recession comes, keynesians will be the cause of fall of western civilization.
Screw real estate its also in a bubble. Silver/cryptos, guns, ammo, food and survival gear.
Every time Sup Forums has a stock market thread it is always wrong
This is also true.
Except for maybe *coin Sup Forums almost never been all that far off the mark. You just have to know, as with any other topic on Sup Forums, how to filter out the meming and HAPPENING fun.
I remember last year we were having a thread about the impending market crash that never materialized
Negative bro. Only one way to go and that is up.
Printing more money is the only way to clear debt so that is what will happen. $20 Trillion for the feds. $13 trillion consumer.
If the stock market falls all pension plans collapse and all state/local governments go bankrupt. Total systemic collapse.
The only thing that can be guaranteed is that the stock market will keep going up, no matter how much other shit it fucks up.
see If you aren't redpilled on the JQ then it'll go right over your head. It's all going to plan.
>ramp up conflict in the Middle East
>world economies starting to suffer from unsustainable usery
>massive social unrest and racial tension
>cultural and religious wars
give me the lowdown.
Where there is a crash there are always those who profit
ZeroHedge has been having that thread for 10 fucking years. lol. market crashing soon. buy gold.
Want to know one reason why your conspiracy theories about the federal reserve aren't taken seriously? Because there is a hefty dose of anti-semitic dogshit mixed in. They actually sort of make sense without all of the bigoted propaganda. So keep that in mind the next time you try to recruit people to your side.
You mean the shemitah stuff? If you were to have read those threads more carefully, you'd have found that the majority of the level-headed discussion was in agreement that, while the conditions for it happening were there, it seemed clearly overhyped as well as unlikely to play out in the fashioned claimed in any case.
And look at how much shittier world economies have gotten. It's not a matter of IF but WHEN. There are clues everywhere.
Why would the Jews do this?
Don;t they realize that this time Sup Forums is here and we already have Hitler to study from?
If the white man has nothing to lose because he lost everything in the crash...nothing is going to stop normal Americans from going full 14/88
Correct. But if you have a valid passport you can get out of the country and travel the world on your saved cash, for a few years if necessary, until the inflation calms down.
The next crash is always just around the corner.
For real, though: they happen every 8-10 years and it's been almost 10
China and Russia have been buying tons of gold since 2008.
China has recently launched its campaign to put the final nail into the coffin of the petro dollar. They are opening up gold futures markets in hong kong redeemable for gold. If you are unaware the price of gold/silver in the US is artificially suppressed. Here is an article showing just today they launched their gold futures market.
scmp.com
China also plans to launch a gold backed crypto currency. The gold will be stored in Chinas vault and regularly auditted. China will allow for transparency, because having an honest system is key to the dollars death.
The gulf states are also breaking up. Saudi Arabia is for the first time visiting Russia. Might end up selling oil to Russia and China outside the dollar. Qatar and Iran have already made this move. Germany looks like it will break ranks and work with Russia around US sanctions. These are just some example of how the US dollar is being cut out of the global market.
Now the real problem will come when all those countries that hold US dollars in debt try to spend it in the last market that accepts trade in US dollars, which is us.
Zerohedge has always existed in part as kind of a counter-psyop operation, kind of like how Max Keiser operates. But yeah once it got popular it ruined its credibility by focusing on predicting the end of the world every week.
I'll go to /biz/ and ask them how soon is the next one coming.
Because 1) economics is not anything close to an exact science and because 2) the Fed has been distorting the marketplace with its monetary policy for decades.
I would make sure you have a couple months of food & some extra ammo first... but PMs seem like good insurance against a turbulent economy.
The Chinese RMB will crash WAY before the USD ever will.
Screencap this post plebs
not really. eventually they start to wonder why the jew meme even exists.
now they're down the rabbit hole.
DON'T WORRY TRUMP WILL STOP THIS RHT?
Sup Forums is red pilled on politics and culture but not economic issues.
Watch
Hidden Secrets of Money episodes 4,6 and 7
youtube.com
Yeah, it's interesting that all that 2008-era stuff is being saber-rattled again. But back then it looked as if the NWO might really almost be around the corner. Today there's enough unpredictability in the world that I'm not sure it would be in China's best interest to upset the apple cart too much.
You're right. The Chinese marketplace is a house of cards. Nobody who works with money trusts the numbers they put out.
>t. Communist
test
>
>Why would the Jews do this?
It's not just Jews, it's the people at the top giving the orders (most of whom are (((Jewish.)))) There are people of all creed and color working for this global conspiracy and most don't even know it, and believe they are good people.
>Don;t they realize that this time Sup Forums is here and we already have Hitler to study from?
Dude we're just a tiny fringe minority of people. Ever tried redpilling anyone else IRL before? They will think you're crazy and shun you.
>If the white man has nothing to lose because he lost everything in the crash...nothing is going to stop normal Americans from going full 14/88
White men have been under attack by Jews and shitskins for thousands of years, you are right that we are warriors. We will have to fight hard, and smart, to save our species. But the problem is most people won't know who to fight or what to do without strong leadership, and in a society post economic crash (massive civil unrest, civil wars, collapsed society, no laws) it will be chaos.
I don't think this will be the end for humanity, but it will be the greatest human-related event in the history of Earth. In a few years time most of us will be dead. If you aren't dead you'll wish you were.
Fuck off. I'm not believing any happening prophecy after I got bamboozled hard with shemitah.