Why The Next Recession Will Morph into a Decades Long Depressionary Event...Or Worse
Economists spend inordinate time gauging the business cycle that they believe drives the US economy. However, the real engine running in the background (and nearly entirely forgotten) is the population cycle. The positive population cycle is such a long running macro trend thousands of years in the offing that it's taken for granted. It is wrongly assumed that upon every business cycle downturn, accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will ultimately spur greater demand and restart the business cycle once the excess capacity and inventories are drawn down. However, I contend that the population cycle has been the primary factor in ending each recession...and this most macro of cycles is now rolling over. Without this, America (nor the world) will truly emerge from the next recession...instead it will morph into an unending downward cycle of partial recoveries...contrary to all contemporary human experience.
The evidence for my contention begins with the 25-54yr/old US population, which peaked in December 2007 and remains below that peak ever since (this population is presently about 400k fewer than Dec of '07). However, total US full time employment is now 3.6 million above the previous peak in 2007. This 25-54 to FT employment relationship is now 1:1...just as it was in 1980 and 1970.
Annual change in 25-54yr/old US population vs. annual change in total full time US employees. The macro population cycle provided millions of new adults (consumers) and their increased demand restarted the more frequent gyrations of the micro business cycles...until 2008 and again now in 2017. Some may take note that the Federal Reserve cost of money (the Federal Funds Rate in blue) generally followed the population cycle, only making some deviations for the business cycle along the way.
Ethan Perry
But the change per 8 year periods of the 25-54yr/old population and total US full time employment turns out to be not so dissimilar. In fact, it's a pretty nice correlation.
Gabriel Miller
And so, since population growth means so much...two differing views on where this population is headed. In red, the Census and in black, an unbiased view of growth based on the child bearing population, birth rates, and current and future immigration trends.
Aaron Gutierrez
Why would I feel such confidence in a lowered estimate of growth? Check the '08 Census projection for the 0-24yr/old US population through 2050 (blue line, chart below) and the massive downgrade of growth by the 2014 projection update (red line). And it is still far too optimistic and the upcoming projection update will only further downgrade upcoming population growth, based on the ongoing declining birth rates combined with huge declines in illegal immigration since '09.
Grayson Thompson
Taking a look at the annual 15-64 population growth should be pretty telling. 2008 wasn't a debt crisis...it was an end of an atypical period of abnormally high growth which so many had assumed was in fact "normal".
David Hill
Charting the change in the core population of the US vs. full time employment. During each downturn in full time employment, the growth in the core population continued and eventually pulled the business cycle to a fresh start. However, as the population cycle slowed the downturns were deeper and recoveries slower due to minimal growth in demand from the population cycle.
Ryan Sanders
focusing from the turn of the century 'til now, the downtrend of core population growth is very plain and the negative impact on the business cycle should also be easily understood. The expected Federal Reserve response is of course interest rate cuts to incent record quantities of new debt...to maintain the unsustainable present. The next economic downturn will see no buoying impact of the core population growth to exit the downturn.
Jack Cruz
the population cycle of the broad core of the US (and in fact, that of the 0-64yr/old population) is now on the precipice of turning Japanese...also known as depopulating
The next business cycle recession will be unending and is very likely to run years into decades and perhaps a century or more. A declining population already indebted with record debt and zero interest rates will consume less...meaning overcapacity and excess inventories will never be fully cleared before the next downturn...and on and on and on.
Owen Harris
Nice lecture, fucking leaf
Ethan Gomez
But the absence of a growing consumer base isn't just a US issue...this is a global problem. The annual growth of the 0-64yr/old population of the combined OECD nations (most the EU, US, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Japan, S. Korea, Australia / New Zealand) plus China, Brazil, and Russia show the growth that has driven nearly all economic growth has come to an end...and begins declining from here on. And when importers are shrinking, exporters have no one to export to...and on and on and on. A recent article helps to detail the depopulation we are now facing...not simply a demographic issue that so many believe, HERE econimica.blogspot.ca/2017/06/some-thoughts-for-tuesday-june-20th.html
The end of growth is the start of the SHTF scenario in which we now find ourselves. While this situation offers short term nirvana to investors, the economic repercussions are ultimately disastrous.
It's happening
Ayden Gomez
I'll bump this since it is well put together compared to other threads currently
Nolan Young
>The Next Recession Will Morph into a Decades Long Depressionary Event
You're right, but for completely different reasons.
Noah Flores
Bump
Kevin Martinez
bump
Gabriel Rodriguez
Nicely researched OP. However, one needs only to look at the fertility rate of the western world over the last 50 years (recorded) and the 50 before that (projected) to see that white people are experiencing a Malthusian collapse. We are told that the post war population growth was a baby boom, because couples were having 3-6 kids each. Compared to the late 1800s where 5-12 children was the norm, it was actually just a bump in a declining trend.
Just like the Japanese, we as a group have been infected with diseases that cause our population to crash. However, as we have developed significant resistances and advanced medicine, it's a disease of the mind that has been the doom of us. Things like feminism and multiracialism have caused us to starkly drop in growth. Now, under normal circumstances, our population would drop, stabilise, and that would be the last you hear of the whole issue. But we have a massive hole in that normal process that allows hundreds of thousands of foreign people to come in a prop up that decline. Of course, they come to our countries mostly as adults and enjoy the benefits of our society and cultures, but the mind viruses often infect the children that they have here or bring with them, so they stop reproducing too after a generation or so. I believe that the political classes of Europe and the US are genuinely race blind (in a way that a master cares not for the colour of his slave), and that this explains the influx of Africans and middle easterners because these are the only places in the world with enormous fertility rates. The constant infinite growth gravy train has to continue, at any cost, or so they believe.
The question is not whether a major catastrophic collapse will take place, its mostly a question of when. The threat is not losing your job, it's sliding into a Brazil-like multiracial slime pit over the next few decades. I'd rather lose my cushy office job and live like a frontiersman.
Angel Morgan
Great shit. I knew that growth was dramatically slowing down in places like the auto loan bubble and that the global system is based on constant growth but your data really illuminated stuff on the demographic side of things.
I'm going to save these posts. Good work leaf. The main reason will be government interferance in the free market, just like the great depression.
Andrew Bell
It's happening or will happen soon to every population except Africans, even in places like India the urban fertility rate for women is only like 1.6
Bentley Morgan
What about infant mortality rates?
I agree with the point about boomers overall but the quantity of children who survived to adulthood was surely lower in the 1800s
My posts are from this blog, it's a hidden gem written by an independent Canadian economist, lots of good information
Juan Taylor
time to import more refugees
Noah Sullivan
Damn this is a good thread Importing third-worlders now makes a lot of sense
Samuel Kelly
It's a future projection based purely on statistical analysis, no societal considerations are made. The truth is that if white countries stop growing, the game is up, and foreign aid which causes the negro population boom will dry up. I've said it before I'm sure, but the worst is yet to come in Africa, with mass extinctions of rare and beautiful species, enormous wars, and destructive migrations away from the continent which of course affect us.
True, but not as harsh as often thought. In my own family tree, my great grandfather had something like 14 children and 13 survived. Infant mortality is bad in Africa, it hasn't been that bad in white countries for a very, very long time. Consider that whites made up around 40% of world population prior to WW1, a huge growth owing to the advances of the 150 years prior to that. Infant mortality, while high, was not catastrophic and not largely meaningful.
Jayden Cruz
You just want hits on your blog. fuck off leaf
Jose Richardson
You only had to listen
Angel Bell
>Why The Next Recession Will Morph into a Decades Long Depressionary Event...Or Worse
Well done, fellow leaf. Its good to hear some well thought out and analyzed threads amidst all the kek nonsense. Thanks for the info, have a bump.
Tyler Bennett
thank you for that blog. I've been really into demographics, economics and statistics recently.
Using some generous assumptions and 2010 census data on unintended and unwanted pregnancies I figured out that women have casual sex about once per week from the time they turn 16 to the day they turn 29.
To get the sexually active population of teenage girls down to the adult levels I had to drop the virginity rate from the 2010 self reported 73% (15-17 year olds) all the way to about 30-35%. Half of all self reported virgins are probably lying and the average girl loses it sometime in her 15th year. Staggering degeneracy.
Your great grandfather was a statistical alpha.
Historically for every one man who has a genetic lineage down to today, two women do.
Your great grandfather did really well in the grand scheme of things.
Justin Mitchell
I think we can all agree that more immigrants will prevent this crisis.
Grayson Bailey
Is this why they are importing migrants to Europe?
WTF
Joseph Reed
That chart is not scaled right. We are currently way under full time jobs to where we should be vs. population.
These are screenshots taken directly from the bureau of labor statistics yesterday.
Mason Richardson
Yes it is
They need somebody to pay the boomer pension, boomers love to vote so any politician who doesn't appease them is doomed. It won't work though because the immigrants are retarded and poor.
Gavin Wilson
But this is just retarded.
All off this for pensions? It can't be just that.
Landon Wilson
Yes this is why they are importing migrants into europe. It serves two purposes depending on how conspiracy minded you are.
1) the elites believe these men will prop up their failing states through new economic growth.
or...
2) the elites are trying to engineer civil conflict because the population of a predator depends on the population (or productiveness) of the prey. As prey go down, the population cap on the elites goes down too and they must start conflicts for more resources.
Really the elites can play this in many different ways and only the future will tell.
Maybe they want a race of lower iq serfs. Normally when one system of human farming fails the next one is more free than the last. Never have we moved backwards.
Leo Davis
>The main reason will be government interferance in the free market Soooo your saying we need more Diversity? Great Idea!
Sebastian White
kek
Michael Miller
There is no foresight in the west regarding most political leadership, perhaps even less so in the financial sector. Meanwhile China is thinking long-term, at least in a fiscal capacity.
Andrew Diaz
When they made pensions the life expectancy was like 60, now everybody is living to 85 so the entire thing is kaput, not to mention the millennial generation are all poor and un/underemployed and barely pay taxes
Benjamin Flores
But how do the refugees pay the pensions of the boomers when they themselves don't work and end up leeching free food/housing/healthcare/schooling/etc. etc. etc. from the taxpayers? Surely they're a net negative on the economy?
Landon Bennett
bump
Ryder Peterson
Unfortunately if you point that out you're ignored and accused of racism. The system is beyond the point of reform, now it can only collapse
Luis Campbell
What you have failed to understand is that governments can end any economic downturn, no matter how big, simply by increasing their spending without a corresponding increase in taxes. Governments can go on increasing their debt for ever - it's not as if they have to retire. As a long term trend, the same is true of the private sector.
The population is largely irrelevant - it will look good on the charts, but it scarcely affects the productivity of each person, nor the wealth of each person.
And it's quite easy to grow the population - plenty of people want to immigrate. Economically it's not a big issue.
Leo Garcia
It called the Olduvai theory, and no one here realizes how fucked we are. Glad i got my acre in alaska, just need to complete my farm and i should be fine for a solid 5 years. After that, things will look a lot like McCarthy's the road.
In Europe, they are useful for propping up industry. Particularly German industry, but all EU industry. Consuming something, anything, is beneficial to give the appearance of growth.
John Thomas
oh well my country is fucked
Eli Hill
yeah no shit, but if the elites are really bringing in refugees to prop up the economies even if they know they're really a net negative, then that doesn't make sense.
this makes more sense... but the refugees are getting spending money from government welfare just to spend to make the economy look OK... jesus what a mess.
Xavier Taylor
So would you say this could lead to a very hot and bloody 21st century?
Charles Robinson
You know what, that's probably correct. He actually did have two wives, the first died after bearing a bunch of his kids.
Xavier White
Despite OP being a leaf, I feel like there's opportunity to talk actual policy in this thread. Demographics drive EVERYTHING and we rarely talk about it. For example, demographics will lead to the end of the EU and many facets of the European welfare state. There simply won't be enough young and middle aged earners to pay for the social welfare programs in most western nations, save the US. This is to say nothing of "replacement migration", a term the UN has come up with to bolster the demographics of failing European nations economically speaking.
Brandon Stewart
the sooner the better.
The only question is how to we hasten the collapse?
Nathan Long
There is one thing, and one thing alone, that is propping up the global economy and that's the system of central banks worldwide acting in coordination to stave off the inevitable collapse (which should've been allowed to run its course in 2008) for just a little while longer. See attached picture for a sense of the scale of their utter desperation at this point - a full 8 years after the official start of the GFC, despite the fact that mainstream financial media continues to push the line that everything is awesome and the global economy is solid.
This will only end badly - default or hyperinflation, pick your poison (or, rather, let your central bank pick it for you; my bet is on the latter, they are irrationally terrified of deflation).
Adrian Parker
...
Jeremiah Perry
where's norway bot to archive when you need him
Hudson Sullivan
I keep asking this question over and over again. And I keep getting ignored. It's beyond frustrating.
Lincoln Long
So this is the power of capitalism...
Henry Long
It will probably take 200 years or more and it will be slower than you're proposing.
If all globalist plans go right a regular citizen of the planet should not notice it so much as to live McCarthy's the road.
That's why mass immigration is happening.
That's why global warming is trending as a problem instead of global littering ( would lower consumption)
That's why bunkers bases and underground cities are being built ( along with Yellowstone)
Nathaniel Carter
What about the petrodollar and the fact that Russia and China are ditching it in favour of trading oil with the Yuan
Wouldn't the US economy collapse entirely after that point?
Logan Jenkins
Burger lacks reading comprehension, what a surprise.
Liam Sanchez
If there are no jobs because the boomers still occupy them then of course the people shipped in to replace them when they retire will not have a job untill the opening arises. There are only so many jobs
Nolan Clark
He only has a general outline of the trend.
It's not happening the way he is "predicting" it. That is just the general outline.
Asher Wilson
Looks like we will need another global war to clear out the chaff and get those numbers back up.
Jack Perry
Why even bring foreigners in. Whites were well able to have big families in the past. I think the elites just want to replace us instead of making having kids a good thing.
Josiah Sanders
Maybe its intentional, or maybe the birth rate decline was unintended and this is a panicked attempt to fix it.
Of course in reality everything could be fixed by simply abandoning old economic models. If money, not resources, is ever a limiting factor in a societies overall well functioning, then the problem is with the monetary system.
Jacob Walker
Whites dont breed enough. Whites have too many things and know too much and demand too many complex costly things and standards of living.
Negroids and arabs are more primitive and will become very consumerist and of shitty things no less once they become the ruling population AND once universal income is applied
Jacob Jones
Bumpity bump
Christian Harris
>That's why global warming is trending as a problem instead of global littering ( would lower consumption) My instacofee always came in a glass jar and now it comes in a plastic bag and it reads "lower carbon print" "less water consumed"... tell me what the fuck can you do with that stupid multilayered polymer bag once it's empty other than burning it.
Evan Hughes
It's cheaper to make in plastic
As for the lower carbon print thing, that's because of legal bureaucracy. Corporations can do crazy shit to get the "ecological" badge or the "sustainable" badge etc... without actually doing anything good for nature.
You can always recycle but that's also not very effective and it pollutes a lot
Grayson Wilson
that's why they only take the children and (((children))). ages 15-25 don't need health care
Ryan Brooks
bumping for interest, can't wait for the crash. the economy will have to be phased out, it won't kick-start again. maybe we'll have profligate alternatives. maybe.
Lincoln Baker
would have been 1000000 times better sticking with the glass, once empty it's useful and if discarted can easily be melted and made into another thing.
Brody Nguyen
No because then you dont consume more plastic.
Dont be a nigged and think in business terms if you want to understand why things work how they work
Grayson Hughes
There are a whole slew of reasons. We have a perfect economic storm developing around us. You should check out Joseph Tainter:
Then go look up how many pages of regulations there are in the US CFR. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
It might not be a bad idea to understand sustainable agriculture that can use industrial inputs like tractors and combines, but does not require industrial inputs. On that:
But in a monetary system that requires perpetual exponential economic growth, OP is correct that the population cycle is going to play a major role.
Jordan Phillips
The relative costs of rearing a child these days, and I include more than just $$ in those costs, makes having children prohibitive to a lot of people.
Landon Butler
Feeding the Africans is something that I have been saying is a bad idea for a long time now. I'm not on my normal machine, otherwise I'd post that Jap comic where it has a guy feeding the kids, then the kids growing up and breeding like rabbits, then the Jap coming back to far more mouths to feed. Us feeding them is unsustainable, and only leads to more mouths to feed and far more people who are going to experience suffering beyond most of our comprehensions. It may be kind and virtuous in the short term, but long term, it is one of the most cruel things we could have done.
Leo Martinez
We always talk about this you dummy. It's practically impossible to raise white birthrates, good luck telling millions of childbearing age women to give up their """careers""" and """lifestyles""" to have 4 children each. But it's also impossible to maintain a nation by immigrating replacement population, because it then becomes a different nation altogether, like when Germans were calling themselves the Holy Roman Empire.
Nathan Torres
I agree with this.
Adrian Hill
Thank christ.
What a glorious world it would be with 1 billion people serviced by 7 billion robots, rather than this choked mess of 8 billion meatmen.
Wyatt Hall
Yes, I've read articles from as far back as 2006 where they were talking about immigration as a means to make up for declining birth rates. Perpetual exponential growth is required in our fiat monetary systems.
Lincoln Ward
im a burger and i enjoyed your thesis.
I hope this is a masters thesis. I would make sure you have good citations laid out too.
Colton Barnes
There's studies that show Europeans would be having a replacement rate fertility if they could afford it. The massive migrant inflow that makes services and housing more expensive is one of the reasons native fertility is declining oddly enough.
However it is unlikely we will go back to 5+ kids per woman unless a massive collapse happens.
Tyler Carter
>Perpetual exponential growth is required in our fiat monetary systems. Can you post some proof, I'm a retard.
Christian King
Okay so ((they)) created a seed for another economic recession purely so that they would have a reason to flood the world with refugees in order to 'pay for Boomer pensions' except that the refugees won't be able to actually pay off the pensions because they are even worse at wasting money and are an overall negative influence on the economy but if you point this out you're racist and therefore in every scenario ((they)) get the apocalypse they always dreamed of? Fuck.
Elijah Evans
The globalist plan is to get that down to just a few thousand. You aren't invited by the way.
Evan Richardson
its going to be a massive civil war.
Eli Morgan
No, this is the power of peak productivity and it will only ever get worse as we continue to automate. Your fully automated luxury space gay communism would yield identical results. We would simply have more production than consumers with little to no incentive, economic or otherwise, to sustain materialistic endeavors.
We have fallen into a safety trap... We have built a world so safe, free of real conflict or need, that we are no longer inspired to live.
Dominic Nguyen
I absolutely believe that these guys are freaking out and doing just about everything in their power to keep things going.
Hudson Miller
Friendly reminder that money is created ex nihilo.
