CANADA YES! Toronto Housing July Mid-Month Numbers show accelerating housing crash

>Toronto housing chill extends into mid-July with sales sinking 39.3%

bnn.ca/toronto-housing-chill-extends-into-mid-july-with-sales-sinking-39-3-1.810388

Toronto average prices:
>March $916K
>April $920K
>May $863K (-6.2% m/m)
>June $794K (8% m/m),
>July 1-14 $760K (-4.3%, extrapolated ~9.7% m/m)
>July

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=PGNiXGX2nLU
theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/special-investigation-how-high-risk-mortgages-crept-north/article1067885/?page=all
theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/four-major-changes-to-canadas-housing-rules/article32223470/
heraldscotland.com/business_hq/13412982.Bank_of_England_s_Mark_Carney_paid_almost___880_000/
bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/
cbc.ca/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-governments-during-recession-1.1145997
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

>housing might become affordable
oy vey this is terrible

I rent in Toronto and I hope it all comes crashing down so i can finally afford a house. The only other solution would be to move to Kitchener or Guelph

>Housing becomes unaffordable.
>People stop buying housing.

Can they not just lower the price?

>Summary

CMHC = Fannie/Freddie Mac

Canadian housing has nearly tripled in 10 years.
A single detached house has gone from about $200K CAD to over $800K CAD.

CMHC has $20B in assets and $946B in liabilities
>50:1 leverage

Banks have lent out a trillion dollars in mortgages for hyperinflated crackshacks while removing any risk of default for them by offloading them to the CMHC (mortgage insurer). At one point, the CMHC allowed 40 year mortgages (in 2008 60% of all new mortgages were 40 year terms), with 0% down (cashback mortgages were a thing with 7-10% cashback), and no maximum loan value. In 2008, over 90% of mortgages were insured by the CMHC (read:

>the entire Canadian housing market is subprime

CDIC = FDIC

Insures up to $100K.

CDIC has $3.4B in assets
CDIC has $679B in liabilities
>200:1 leverage

Both CMHC and CDIC are backstopped by the government.

A 20+% correction would wipe out the CMHC and at least one major Canadian bank as they have uninsured mortgages (already happening with Home Capital, the Canadian CountryWide). A bank being wiped out would wipe out the CDIC.

The CDIC and CMHC being wiped out would require the Canadian government to issue hundreds of billions of loonies in new debt, sending the loonie to sub-50 cents, possibly to 20-30 cents or even hyperinflating.

>The Day of the Rake is nigh

I was in a discussion about 2 months ago with a leaf who assured me nothing was going to happen.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

>What's happening now?
The CMHC has been reigned in to a max loan value of $1M, max amortizations of 25 years (from a high of 40), 5% downpayment on the first $500K, 10% on the next $500K (7.5% on $1M).

People have been using "alternative lenders" who loan $2-3M on self-declared income or with fake documents. Now these lenders are blowing up and not making new mortgages, hence prices have stagnated or dropped (as in Van, already down 15% this year).

Once a massive across the board drop occurs, lots of people who are leveraged to the tits with negative/0/5% downpayment 30/35/40 year mortgages will be underwater (they will owe more than they can sell their house for).

>Canadian mortgages are all Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) that reset every 5 years

When renewal comes up, which is soon for a lot of 2010-2012 mortgages on 40 year terms with negative/0/5% downpayments, they will be forced to come up with hundreds of thousands of cash to bring their mortgage Loan-to-Value back down to 80-95%. 99% of people won't be able to come up with the money, so the bank will write off the mortgage with the CMHC mortgage insurer, who will pay the bank the loan back then take possession of the house and do a fire sale, and then go after the homecuck for the balance which will be hundreds of thousands for life. Bankruptcy can't discharge CMHC debt since it is Crown debt.

In fact, banks can call in mortgages at any time for any reason (lol). So if they see prices dropping, they will pre-emptively call in mortgages and write them off to stay afloat. Once this occurs, it's a race to the bottom as banks are forced to call in more and more mortgages to stay afloat (in order to maintain their Tier 1 capital ratios with marked market values of the houses on their books)

>A significant price drop will put millions of homecucks underwater
>Banks call in mortgages
>Homecucks can't come up with margin
>CMHC bails out banks and dumps toxic houses on market collapsing prices

Is this going to affect my Canadian Weedstocks?

Very cool thread Op thanks for the effort typing all this out, do you work in real state?

>Bankruptcy can't discharge CMHC debt since it is Crown debt.
lel

I was thinking about investing in the Horizon weed ETF.

What do you think. Will leafs turn to weed to escape their misery?

>AYY WEED MAN LMAO
weedman won't legalize it

I don't own a house, I'm a student, 0 debt, and about 20g saved not including assets. Should I be investing to take advantage of his?

I run a hedge fund, just short everything Canadian

...

They already are. Aphria is already reporting revenues way above projections.

But screw ETFs. Why pay some guy in a office 5% to do something you can do yourself?

Just buy Canopy Growth. Or Emblem corp, their CEO is top-tier. Or if you're interested in Pharma, invest in Nemus Corp. They have a solid pre-clinical pipeline to treat glaucoma, blindness, chemo pain, and MRSA infections using synthetic cannabinoids, which will make billions thanks to sick baby boomers who are taking too many dangerous pills and opioids. People are saying weedstocks are recession-proof as well because they are vice stocks, similar to alcohol and tobacco. There's lots of money to be made off leafs

wait for the shitshow to reach calamity status. Stay in cash or silver. Physical on hand and a couple of guns. get in when the bottom hits (30-50% correction)

Hold USD/Swiss Francs/Yen/Gold

Every asset class is massively overvalued.

THis could be because of the foreign buyer's tax they just implemented.

Vancouver did it in April and they experienced a similar drop in prices for a few months and now they're back to setting all time highs for housing prices.


This dip could be for a similar reason in Toronto.

I would buy in the next month before things start to pick up again (assuming this is indeed due to the foreign buyer's tax).

Makes more sense. They will turn to weed when they are foreclosed on and forced into subsidized housing with nothing but mudslime neighbors.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

So should I wait to get francs or usd, or do it when shit starts hitting the fan?

If you can get a good exchange rate I'd start accumulating both. Open an Interactive Brokers account to get market rates for Forex, retail banks charge 200-300 pip spreads

Are Canadian mortgage rates linked to central bank rates? If so, a .25% increase is over $1000 increase in mortgage payments. I read a report that 75% of Canadians cannot withstand a $250 increase in cost of living.

Thanks. Where can I learn more about this stuff? Any books?

tfw the leafs don't understand supply and demand.

bump

inb4 leafs buy the dip only to realise they bought the dead cat bounce.

Foreign buyers are less than 5%

This is a crash

>That's $200,000 in 90 days or -$2,200/day.

crashing HARD

So how would an American be able to take advantage of this to make some shekels?

Foreign buyers are 5 percent, but chinks all get PR status easy you dingus

The whole idea of a mortgage is stupid. Buy in lump sum cash, pussies.

this fuck everyone who borrowed money to fuel their own and the jews greed i hope they end up broke and dead in the gutter

I just went through a foreclosure. Technically a judicial sale.
Drive by appraisal at 440k
Sold for 319k
Only sale on my street for over 9 months.
1/3 of my street is for sale and lowering prices to intixe buyers

When to buy a house in toronto then?

THE HOUSE OF CARDS COMES CRUMBING DOWN

Oy vey goyim take out massive loans now

Never. Toronto will be new Detroit in 10 years

Care to elaborate?
Did you strategically default? If I recall Alberta/SK are non-recourse for non-CMHC mortgages..
When did you buy? What % downpayment? CMHC insured? Interest rate? Mortgage type?

What did the bank do? Did they let you live in the house free or make you pay rent? etc..

I'm gonna take advantage of this price drop, invest in a few properties and rent them to the goyim.

ok, where and when to buy in canada then?

Yeah I'll just pull this million out of my ass, retard.
My bank account only has 5 digits.

>this fucking city

Quick, import more chinks to buy up more housing to keep the bubble from popping!

THREAD THEME: youtube.com/watch?v=PGNiXGX2nLU

>I must buy this overpriced house here in this shitty overhyped neighbourhood because I'm a cum guzzling consumer white that loves jewish fairytales. What do you mean you want me to pay for a house all on my own? Hell no im not doing that. Borrowing money for this from greedy people on their pinky promise that they won't screw me over is obviously the smartest choice! Get out the way and let me borrow more money!

*consumer whore

Definitely not white!

CASTREAU WILL HANG.
YES THE CHINESE WILL EAT HIM

Strategically? As in decided to stop paying because id rather offord life for my family.
CMHC loan
2013 september
10% down payment. I loan for that at like 8% (defaulted it)
3.5 apr 5 year
35 year loan

The bank dragged their feet. As did I.
We lived in the house for free since last summer. Wife and kids moved out over the stress in august. I stayed and used it as a base for my landscaping business while waiting for the bank to act.

Finally got notice to evict in april and moved out on june 1.

I wonder if this was caused by a similar policy of what caused the 2008 crash

>Community reinvestment act

GOTTA GET A BIGGER HOUSE THAN MY FRIENDS OR I'LL LOOK LIKE A FAILURE TO THOSE PIECE OF SHIT FRIENDS THAT I DON'T EVEN LIKE
HELP ME JEWS

That entire run up under Harper. He really fucked us.

you said the rest of your street is now full of for sale signs...how long?

>A 20+% correction would wipe out the CMHC
only if people default
which they will, as interest rates go up

DAY OF THE RAKE IS FINALLY HERE!!

not for 3-5 years. This is the start.

paul martin should have noticed and checked the operations of the CMHC when he was PM
this all started at the end of chretien's reign
harper made it worse.
flahrety kept the bubble moving up steadliy, but joe oliver wasn't nearly as capable and trudeau's gov't has just said "fuck it, we're not dealing with this"

I hate to say it but your country is fucked. It lost both its energy sector and its housing sector.

Buy guns move to the country and watch the fireworks.

oy vey.

You jewed the jews

Is this going to spread to the US housing market? Because I have a house I need to sell ASAP then.

I thought hongcouver was the bad housing city?

It was thanks to god tier Paul Martin that we didn't crash in 2008. He blocked the bank deregulations that Harper wanted.

Harper started deregulating in 2007 and thankfully didn't have enough time before Bush Crash

Special investigation: How high-risk mortgages crept north
theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/special-investigation-how-high-risk-mortgages-crept-north/article1067885/?page=all

CRA wasn't enough to do it. CRA led to people who shouldn't have gotten mortgages to getting them. the banks didn't like this.
fannie mae and freddie mac would just buy those mortages no matter how shit the quality.
so the banks didn't have to give a fuck in the end anyways.
CMHC = Canadian Fannie/Freddie

Trudeau has repeatedly imposed new housing market regulations.

But it's too little too late after Harper let things run wild

Four major changes to Canada’s housing rules
theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/four-major-changes-to-canadas-housing-rules/article32223470/

Hope some of you leafs saved up to buy low price property. I'm jealous.

average inventory in a healthy market in toronto during the spring/summer is usually about 1 month.
That is, at the current rate of buying, there would me no more houses to sell within a month if no one else added to those listings for that month

for the past couple of years, the inventory in toronto was not 4 weeks but about 1 week.
now it's 4 months.

sales volumes have dropped 30-50% while listings are up 40-60% compared to last year. people are unable to offload their places.

So when to start buying Canadian houses?

perhaps, shit is fucked globally. Look at England, Democrat cities in US, Australia, leafs, New zealand, then the big ghost city bubble in China.

Yeah...you're fucked

Has the CMHC contacted you? Did the bank put in a claim with them yet?

So you literally bought the place with 0 down?

Our contagion is regional so it can be contained. Right now there is a mass exodus from San Fransisco to Austin where they can get the same home for 500,000 less and still work for the tech industry. The home prices are not reflecting the exodus. Just a matter of time. The genie is already out of the bottle.

Do Canadians even get houses? I thought it was all Chinese. Will Bitcoin go up in response to this?

The one that scares me is the China superbubble.

BoC governer Carney is very much to blame as well, keeping rates as low as he did. He was smart though, he BTFO right before shit hit the fan and took a gig as BoE Governer. Gets $500K pounds a year plus a free multi-million dollar flat and the credit of a good economy without the fallout from the crash now

Ironically the first thing Carney did in the UK was pump housing

ontario will pick up some of the slack with manufacturing

lol just kidding
the provincial liberals have been cranking up our electricity bills like crazy for the past 10 years so that's not coming back either

whatever, dude. we have a lot of mom n pop shop restaurants. we'll be fine!

>toronto average
>920k
>According to World Cost of Living calculator spreadsheet (crowdsourced data), the average monthly salary for Toronto jobs is around USD2,605.52 or around C$3,415.00.

well shit, i thought leafs were just exaggerating

Imagine being a little chinese man right now having invested all your shit in Canadian houses

it almost makes me erect thinking about it

Yep Mark Carney gtfo dodge no doubt about it. I think he makes more like $800,000 pounds a year which is a shitload of money. At some committee, MPs asked him why he was being paid so much and he said that he needs it because he moved from one of the cheapest capitals (Ottawa) to the most expensive (London). These guys are such fucktards so detached from real economic reality. Poloz is even worse. These are the real enemies of the people.

kek

canadian homeownership rate has historically been between 62% and 69% at it's peak. We're at 70%.
if it was foreign ownership it wouldn't be 70% as we would be squeezed out of the market
canadians don't want to admit that we did this to ourselves because that would make us even dumber than americans

Hey you have a great timber industry. I'd invest in cardboard paper companies.

it's funny and sad
their primary tool is setting the key rate which they do on the advice of everyone else, once a quarter and only a quarter point at a time. of course if you drive down interest rates to near 0 you can get credit flowing again.

Foreign ownership is a huge factor. Billions of dollars from China are allowed to flood into this country. It's dirty money. Money laundering. Even if it's only 5% (that's what the govt says with very little data) that's fucking huge. That's all it takes.

no joke it's probably the best industry we have going forward for at least a couple of years
i believe the BoC is jacking up rates (and i have heard on good authority) because the trump admin threatened them to but will go easy on us with NAFTA negotiations in return

Bank of England's Mark Carney paid almost £880,000
heraldscotland.com/business_hq/13412982.Bank_of_England_s_Mark_Carney_paid_almost___880_000/

Yes, it's extremely tanned Canadians and slanty eyed Canadians buying houses, not foreigners goy.

In the past 2 years there were more and more foraale signs coming up. In the past year its been piling up though.

It will come back at me im sure

I stopped answering my phone years ago
I have all of my customers contact me via text whch (((they))) (the jew debt collectors) dont do for some reason.

Aren't we putting tariffs on that timber?

They had no choice to raise rates. Have you seen the bond yields?

bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

when is the investment opportunity god damn it? how long did it take in the us for the prices to increase?

we fucking understood the market is crashing. what's next ffs?

TOR owner fag here.
The question is which areas are specifically dropping. I'm fine regardless I don't have any debt in a place I've live at for 20 years, just curious.

what canadians buy in the US as a share of their market is twice what foreign chinese funds spend in canada

if foreign money was crowding us out we wouldn't own our homes but our ownership rate is the highest it's historically been. foreign funds bid up prices as well, but we did this to ourselves.

>bought a house 20 years ago

fuck you, you won the lottery

>Aren't we putting tariffs on that timber?
there always have been and it's always been a hotly contested issue
we'll have to wait and see on that one

Good. I hope I see mass boomer/chink suicides. LET IT BURN

salty torontonians ITT
your homes were overvalued time for the real canadians to take power back

Foreign nationals, anyway. How many of the Chinese are citizens? It's a fact it's not young adults buying the houses because youth home ownership is in the gutter.

I paid the down payment on the down payment loan so kinda.
Looking back I most likely just deferred it to my credit cards through other expenses. Didnt pay the cards either. 75k total unsecured debt I walked away on while the judicial sale.

It will come back at me, but I say take a number. CRA is pissed at me too

i don't disagree. if we diverge too much from the US in terms of rates the BoC would have to buy bonds like crazy. it's just that the original plan, even as recent as 6 months ago was to start raising rates in late 2018
fucking morons were 100% assured that clinton would win or trump would immediately crash and burn the economy

>Canada's financial system and banks didn't crash in 2008

That's where you're wrong kiddo.

>cbc.ca/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-governments-during-recession-1.1145997

>Banks got $114B from governments during recession

>Support for banks 'more substantial than Canadians were led to believe': CCPA report

One of the most well-known ways in which policymakers helped the banks during the crisis is through a $69-billion CMHC program whereby the housing agency took mortgages off the balance sheets of big Canadian banks. In contrast with other support facilities, all of the funds granted by the CMHC were through selling assets (in this case mortgages) to the housing agency. They were not funds that had to be paid back.

The CMHC has provided the aggregate total of how much was given out, but has yet to release specifics on which banks sold how much to them, and when, the CCPA says.

When asked for comment in reaction to the CCPA report, the Canadian Bankers Association noted that the $69 billion that Canada's big banks sold into the CMHC program is in fact only 55 per cent of what was allocated for the program.

>To show the scale of the funding, the CCPA report contrasted the total value of the support Canadian banks took against the bank's total value at the time. Under that comparison, CIBC received $21 billion in support — almost 1.5 times the value of the company at the time. BMO maxed out at $17 billion or 118 per cent, Scotiabank peaked at $25 billion or 100 per cent of its value, while TD and RBC maxed out at $26 billion and $25 billion — good enough for 69 and 63 per cent, respectively, of the total value of those companies at the time.

that's what happens when you combine hardcore globalist jew capitalism with marxist welfare schemes

YOU GET JEWED