CANADA YES! Leaf Real Estate crashing and burning

>Toronto housing chill extends into mid-July with sales sinking 39.3%

bnn.ca/toronto-housing-chill-extends-into-mid-july-with-sales-sinking-39-3-1.810388

Toronto average prices:
>March $916K
>April $920K
>May $863K (-6.2% m/m)
>June $794K (8% m/m),
>July 1-14 $760K (-4.3%, extrapolated ~9.7% m/m)
>July

Other urls found in this thread:

cbc.ca/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-governments-during-recession-1.1145997
twitter.com/AnonBabble

Anyone that bought this year is underwater.

For example
>152 Randolph
March, list $1.489M, sold $1.95M
$542/sq ft

2 weeks ago, July 4th
>75 Randolph, same street
List $1.499M
Sold $1.265
Lot 45x113, 5,085 sq ft
$249/sq ft
-54% in 100 days

152 Randolph would now be worth $896K, -$1,054,000 in 100 days

>Quick Rundown

CMHC = Fannie/Freddie Mac

Canadian housing has nearly tripled in 10 years.
A single detached house has gone from about $200K CAD to over $800K CAD.

CMHC has $20B in assets and $946B in liabilities
>50:1 leverage

Banks have lent out a trillion dollars in mortgages for hyperinflated crackshacks while removing any risk of default for them by offloading them to the CMHC (mortgage insurer). At one point, the CMHC allowed 40 year mortgages (in 2008 60% of all new mortgages were 40 year terms), with 0% down (cashback mortgages were a thing with 7-10% cashback), and no maximum loan value. In 2008, over 90% of mortgages were insured by the CMHC (read:

>the entire Canadian housing market is subprime

CDIC = FDIC

Insures up to $100K.

CDIC has $3.4B in assets
CDIC has $679B in liabilities
>200:1 leverage

Both CMHC and CDIC are backstopped by the government.

A 20+% correction would wipe out the CMHC and at least one major Canadian bank as they have uninsured mortgages (already happening with Home Capital, the Canadian CountryWide). A bank being wiped out would wipe out the CDIC.

The CDIC and CMHC being wiped out would require the Canadian government to issue hundreds of billions of loonies in new debt, sending the loonie to sub-50 cents, possibly to 20-30 cents or even hyperinflating.

>The Rakening is upon us

>What's happening now?
The CMHC has been reigned in to a max loan value of $1M, max amortizations of 25 years (from a high of 40), 5% downpayment on the first $500K, 10% on the next $500K (7.5% on $1M).

People have been using "alternative lenders" who loan $2-3M on self-declared income or with fake documents. Now these lenders are blowing up and not making new mortgages, hence prices have stagnated or dropped (as in Van, already down 15% this year).

Once a massive across the board drop occurs, lots of people who are leveraged to the tits with negative/0/5% downpayment 30/35/40 year mortgages will be underwater (they will owe more than they can sell their house for).

>Canadian mortgages are all Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) that reset every 5 years

When renewal comes up, which is soon for a lot of 2010-2012 mortgages on 40 year terms with negative/0/5% downpayments, they will be forced to come up with hundreds of thousands of cash to bring their mortgage Loan-to-Value back down to 80-95%. 99% of people won't be able to come up with the money, so the bank will write off the mortgage with the CMHC mortgage insurer, who will pay the bank the loan back then take possession of the house and do a fire sale, and then go after the homecuck for the balance which will be hundreds of thousands for life. Bankruptcy can't discharge CMHC debt since it is Crown debt.

In fact, banks can call in mortgages at any time for any reason (lol). So if they see prices dropping, they will pre-emptively call in mortgages and write them off to stay afloat. Once this occurs, it's a race to the bottom as banks are forced to call in more and more mortgages to stay afloat (in order to maintain their Tier 1 capital ratios with marked market values of the houses on their books)

>A significant price drop will put millions of homecucks underwater
>Banks call in mortgages
>Homecucks can't come up with margin
>CMHC bails out banks and dumps toxic houses on market collapsing prices

>Canada's financial system and banks didn't crash in 2008

That's where you're wrong kiddo.

>cbc.ca/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-governments-during-recession-1.1145997

>Banks got $114B from governments during recession

>Support for banks 'more substantial than Canadians were led to believe': CCPA report

One of the most well-known ways in which policymakers helped the banks during the crisis is through a $69-billion CMHC program whereby the housing agency took mortgages off the balance sheets of big Canadian banks. In contrast with other support facilities, all of the funds granted by the CMHC were through selling assets (in this case mortgages) to the housing agency. They were not funds that had to be paid back.

The CMHC has provided the aggregate total of how much was given out, but has yet to release specifics on which banks sold how much to them, and when, the CCPA says.

When asked for comment in reaction to the CCPA report, the Canadian Bankers Association noted that the $69 billion that Canada's big banks sold into the CMHC program is in fact only 55 per cent of what was allocated for the program.

>To show the scale of the funding, the CCPA report contrasted the total value of the support Canadian banks took against the bank's total value at the time. Under that comparison, CIBC received $21 billion in support — almost 1.5 times the value of the company at the time. BMO maxed out at $17 billion or 118 per cent, Scotiabank peaked at $25 billion or 100 per cent of its value, while TD and RBC maxed out at $26 billion and $25 billion — good enough for 69 and 63 per cent, respectively, of the total value of those companies at the time.

t. 67.5% of Canadian mortgages are subprime.

B-But r/canada told me it wouldn't happen?!!!

>Anything over $300000 for a house that tiny in a shitty city
This crash was needed.

How can this be happening if they told us it couldn't happen? everyone on reddit and the cbc comment sections month ago said it was impossible.

But is it literally happenning. But they said it couldn't. REEEEEE

Bump

>That house will go up in value $700 per day they said
>More money than you could make starting a business they said
>only a moron would turn down free money they said.

Expect more chinks buying your real estate to speculate

Source on picture?

Another housecuck BTFO

Lost 30%+ in 70 days

It's my wife, we do make BBC cuckolding videos and sell them online to help pay the mortgage.

She's a stay at home wife so nobody really sees her.

Is Toronto not just a totally unremarkable and forgettable city? Why do leaf politicians deny Chinese colonization when it's $900k for a house that here would be $100k?

Give me the free sample trailers, I'm very small and don't last long

I don't see a problem with that curve, as of now it looks like a healthy correction, nothing unusual.
If it doesn't rebound, though..

obamaleaf btfo

this will break his mind even further.

>1.5 million dollars for a two bedroom.
They deserve it. Fucking boomer behavior
>XD it'll keep rising for ever! Well be riiiiiccchhhhh

>Kraut threat analysis

Holy shit, do you even have a fight or flight response? Do they just surgically remove Germans hindbrains at birth? How can you not recognize a catastrophe when it's right in front of you?

I don't know how much more he can descent into madness

Chinks btfo

Time to short Canadian currency

At least you guys have a part-time ski instructor and former substitute drama teacher as Prime Minister.

How will all this effect the housing market in the US? Are we isolated from these prices drops?

I'd be more worried about considering Canada in concert with Australia. I'm not particularly convinced that Canada coming undone would set off a global happening, but when there are enough localized happenings at once then you have to worry about epidemic -> pandemic.

>I don't know how much more he can descent into madness

We will see though. We will see the limits of his madness play out across /pol.

Do US bank mortgage backed securities have exposure in Canada? That would seem a reasonable question for US contagion but I'm not an expert

What is so difficult to see about it, mong sherlock??
I make money on WS with the exact mix of paranoia and greed you express every day.
It's probably a good time to invest soon, dumbo.

Good question. I'm not in a position to really know, but I haven't heard anything about a dangerous amount of exposure.

If we were living in rational days I would ask who would want to invest in Canadian real estate loans. But you never know.

What now faggot, question your perception and you will make money on those markets.
Hindsight out

Good

Fuck boomers and Fuck landkikes

>drawing a trend line through the sample of data that are the outliers

trying drawing a trendline from 2001 on wards. It's at approximately 400-450K. And crashes always overshoot

If Canada starts a financial chain reaction crashing the US and then worldwide markets then I'll worship leafs forever. If not I give 0 fucks

If he has a trader mentality and the ability to just push buttons in and out then it's not an unreasonable view.

But for the normies it's a different game, since they're the ones who have to lose in order for the traders to win.

Good the chinks buying up all the property might actually lose money. Still worth more than any investment they could make in China.

>Chinese buy a bunch of over priced property just before the housing bubble bursts
>Average Canadians can afford a house again
>a bad thing

>muh chinese

>Nearly 5 per cent of homes sold in the Golden Horseshoe region were purchased by foreign buyers, according to a month’s worth of new data from the Ontario government that reveals the role international investors have played in the area’s overheated real estate market.

How do i profit from this?
Is there a 3x inverse canadian housing etf?

Start one so you can scoop the profits anyway while you're front running it.

Did they learn nothing from 2008?

this is good since they were so high

also deus vult i'm a stupid christcuck

When's our turn?

You burned it the fuck down, ass. And now you have the nerve to brexit?

Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.

>Average Canadians can afford a house again

ayy lmao. They'll just bail out the banks and let even more foreigners buy property while they increase immigrants and TFWs, all to inflate demand and justify even higher prices.

How will this affect China?

Nah it's overinflated, I'm waiting for the crash to buy a property.

It will lurch to the side and begin to tip into the sea. The benefit here is that acres of dust from the Gobi will land in Japan instead of choking off the ching chongs who didn't fall over and drown.

Good hope all those fucking SJW faggots become homless and get shanked by a crack dealer.

Oh noes we're back to January 2017 pricing lol. Only 6 months ago. Let me know when we're back to 2014 pricing.

almost $2 million for that holy fuck

This is going to suck, but we need it.
The housing market was getting way out of hand, a crash was coming soon, and the sooner we get it over with the better. The bigger the market expands, the worse the crash is.

Granted it expanded FAR too much, and should have crashed far sooner, but at least its finally happening now.

I think that's Canadian Dollaru... right?

Calling Dr. Burry

>comfy bush
>lace curtains
>chimney already sleeved

You don't know what you're missing

moar liek wood burry amirite

buwahaha $2m for that fucking shack? yeah, naw... something ain't right.

IT HAS A NEW HOMEDEPOT DOOR AND A STORM DOOR FAGGOT IT PROBABLY HAS AT LEAST AN 80% EFFICIENT FURNACE

Canada will be the new Sweden in no time, together with the UK.

And nothing of value is lost hehe

For any smart and finnacially savvy leaf this is a golden opportunity.

When the market is bearish - be a bull.

>For any true scotmans this is a golden opportunity.

Why do people panic when sale prices go down?

That's good for the consumer, isn't it?

An average leaf cannot afford to buy a house still... Also the houses are shit
>well at least it's $750000 for an 80 y/o cuck shed filled with asbestos instead of $1mil

ever heard the adage "dont catch a falling knife" ? that applies here. Prices always fall faster than they rise. might as well wait until things bottom out.

>Why do people panic when sale prices go down?

they were told it coudn't happen. check the /pol archives you can even find leafs denying this would happen and insulting those who said it would.

Man I love reddit economics.
>Yea this $1 million shed totally isn't overvalued
>No way the price will go down
>People totally want to buy houses that aren't even worth $200k for over $1 million

Ever heard of this concept in economics called margin. Most houses are paid for at margin. usually 10-20% when a price falls below the amount of margin held by the buyer the boyer is required to come up with the excess and when they can't they're forcesd to sell thus causing housing prices to fall even faster.

Basically Canada is fucked.

Not necessarily true. The S&P rebounded at like 25% a year after the crash in 08

Anyways, you can't predict exactly what the price floor will be after this, which is exactly why you shouldn't fear the falling knife

>Nah it's overinflated, I'm waiting for the crash to buy a property

Yea, you and every other millenial faggot which is why it wont happen.

Back in the 90s...
>"oh hey im gonna hold on to these baseball cards because the cards from my grandpas house from the 50s are worth hundreds now.

>Every dipshit millenial hoards their ken griffey Jr rookie card
>Fast forward to 2005
"Hey why aren't my baseball cards worth anything!"

This is so fucking stupid though, I dony know anyone who hasnt negotiated a fixed rate mortage?

lets hope the chinks are losing tons of money on this

didn't your prime minister donate $20,000,000 of taxpayer money to Clinton's campaign via an interest group?

top kek

Leaf housing markets are super dumb.

Because 95% of people buy houses using mortgages ie on margin. Downpayments of 5% = 20:1, 10% = 10:1, 20% = 5:1.

Canadian mortgages have to be renewed every 2-5 years on average, so if your house is worth less than your mortgage (margin loan), the bank will do a margin call and if you can't put down a few hundred grand cash you get foreclosed on, lose the house and the government chases you until you die for any loss the bank incurs.

It's almost like in 2008 everybody with a few spare brain cells was telling people to avoid adjustable rates at all costs.

Most millennials can't afford houses at current valuations anyway so they might as well wait for them to come down.

Even the Soviets were not dumb enough to believe that the economy could not change, especially when their promised rations were cut.

Why would the Canucks believe that the market can't have bad years?

Nah, I'm a libertarian who occasionally invests in my retirement account and am probably buying my house from family in an arranged fashion, I'm not really good at understanding real estate (though I'm trying to learn because regulations and economics seem a bit...complicated).

What is the average leaf wage in Tonto?

I wonder how it will bounce back or if it even will.

I dont think you get it.... plenty of boomer cash to keep housing propped up indefinitely

>Why would the Canucks believe that the market can't have bad years?

they believe in the literal reality of the female penis too..

It should be illegal for gooks to buy property in non-native countries, especially if they don't even live in that country.

I'm all about 'muh freemarket', but this kind of legislation is needed.

Mortgage terms are 2-5 years then you have to renew. There's no such thing as locking in a 30 year fixed mortgage in Canada. The max is 10 years and then the bank will charge you double the interest rate.

Do you even read the thread?

$29K is average Leaf wage

In Toronto probably $35K

Leaf wages (skilled professions) are 1/3 of US wages

Can you actually lock in a fixed rate in the US for the full term of the loan?

fucking awesome. Now I just need the Hongcouver housing market to crash and burn

Except boomers all plan on selling to fund their retirement in Florida, which will flood the market

yes most US mortgages are fixed 30 years and you can prepay anytime without penalty.

Not if gooks don't buy up all the beachside property in Florida first.

talking US faggot, cucknadia is chinese ghost money

Cheers user, going by those numbers the average house price should be 105,000 in toronto.
So the housing market still needs to drop 650,000 leafbucks off of the average house so the average leaf can afford. Foriegn investment absolutely out prices the locals.

Thanks for explaining. Glad I'm still renting

Ben "Shalom" the Leaf Slayer

How does that even work? The bank would be taking the bet the rates are going to go up and set the rate fucking high as hell, why would you fix rate, ever? 3 decades is a long fucking time for the banks to willingly fuck themselves, no wonder burger banks foreclose on everyone.

wasn't the american mortgage insurancy industry only leveraged to like 20:1 in the 08 crash?

why haven't the canadacucks learned anything from their neighbor down south?