THE Fourth Turning

Please tell me some of you have read this book. If not, buy it and read it.

This book was written in the mid 1990’s by a sociologist and a historian identifying cycles in the American culture and how our society reacts to crisis.

It came out in 1997 and predicted that a major event would shock the us into a crisis period that would last ~ 20 years and would bring to the surface, cultural, economic and political issues that would need to be solved in this time.

This was before 9/11, before blm and the migrant crisis, before the war on terror, before trump before 08’ before all of it.

It predicted genneration z being conservative

It predicted larger than life political figures rising to power

It predicted war and chaos

Read this fucking book, these guys are right, the exact details aren’t perfect but he general structure of their theory has been right.

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That book is a must-have. Will totally change the way you view politics and history.
The authors had a much more optimistic view of Milliennials than has panned out though. STILL possible they could amount to something, but jeez.
It's a big influence on Steve Bannon, if I'm not mistaken.

I think millennials have a lot of untapped potential. They're used to getting railroaded and working long hours for very little payoff. Many think socialism is the answer, but if leftism further gets exposed for the farce it is, they can be valuable to have on the right.

Big takeaway from 4T, and what S&H got right is that Millennials would lean Democrat and favor Big Government. They'll never be "right-wing" as we understand it.
At best, they'll organize and run a functional and less-bloated government that actually serves the needs of citizens. At worse, they'll turn us into an authoritarian China of the Cultural Revolution.
They could go either way at the moment.

we just need a good war to grind them up

Millennials aren’t as bad as the medi portrays it half of us are the evil white -nationalists of the new right

If anything the super Marxist millennials are defenders of the old dying order

Anyway the authors as a whole had a way to optimistic view of what the crisis would be, they relied to heavily on the propaganda of ww2 they forgot how divided and chaotic the 1930’s really were

I don't want to buy it on Amazon and only one dude is it serving this book on #bookz

sauce pls?

Idk dude I bought it from amazon 10 years ago

buy it used on ebay

I think you can already see the writing on the wall

Weather we entered crisis in 2001 or 2008 the huge gains of the right wing politically I think shows how things will go

The marxists are the ones dying it’s their world founded after ww2 that’s coming apart

Yes it is very good. Grey champion and milleneals are hero generation. It's actually true I will make a milleneal general soon.

>Monday Morning Quaterbacking: The Novel

I read it. It came across as though the author shoehorned things from the past to fit his narrative. A clever idea for a novel but not very helpful or intellectual.

If the succesive years didn’t pan out the way they have I would agree with you.

You realize when this was written right?

We did, think of the thousands of military members and their potential children that would have been right wing had they not died in Iraq or Afghanistan.

Truth be told, I'm optimistic about the Millennials. They do less drugs, commit less crime, and are the highest educated generation in US history.
Problem with them is that they've proven extremely difficult to lead and organize for any useful purpose, even though they clearly want to.
IF Trump can somehow win them over, he could be that "Gray Champion" they need. But I don't know how he can do it. The pop culture and social media they're immersed in hates him.
Only option is that Trump does some left-wing policies that directly benefits them on college tuition, employment, and other things.
Regardless, Millennials will see to it that small government conservatism or libertarianism dies off in America.
They might yet save the country, but it won't be recognizable in ten years.
The generation I'm looking forward to is the one after Gen Z. The new Prophets. They'll drive the Millennials completely nuts and might push the pendulum back the right way in the next Awakening.

don't buy it. only faggots and communists give their money to the publishing jew.

here's a link if you want to download it:
gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=410BF33FD903E98F0135E96ED59EBF06

The hard left is already triggered at conservative political millennials

Just wait until their kids ditch gender fluidity in 2038 to go to church and stay celibate till marriage

I don’t know wha they expect when you as a parent are already a lefty loon your kid rebel’s by being traditional

>thousands
Like that would've changed anything.

It was 2008. Neil Howe said 2001 was too soon because the Millennials were still too young and American society didn't rise up in a 4T crusade. We settled into a bunch of 3T style wars.
The country didn't go right-wing. It simply reacted to an ineffective and broken government during the Bush/Obama years. The Obama Administration truly was a disaster, both for the Democrats and the country. He simply was the wrong choice for a 4T.

>it predicted war and chaos

wow. what a daring prediction to make. so a stark change from the entirety of human history.

I'll be an old Gen-Xer when the Awakening hits. I desperately want to see it for these reasons.
If Millennials think Boomers are mean to them, they have no idea what their kids and grandkids are going to think of their worst and stupidest beliefs.

I think that’s short sighted and inaccurate (and the writers also didn’t see the 1850’s as part of the crisis as it obviously is)

There are a number of differences that I think we can label 2001 as the crisis point.

1. The nation didn’t unite, this is a misnomer the nation never united in any of the previous crisis, a huge portion of America didn’t support the revolutin, civil war,.. obviously and the us was extremely decided and muddled in the 30s (many supported Germany)

2. We didn’t run off to war; we didn’t in the last one either, let’s comapre some stuff in 1991 (3t) Kuwait is invaded the us conducts a quick battle and then leaves letting saddam in place. Vs 2001 we launch a massive multi nation war that’s lasted 16 years cost millions of lives (including non Americans) and trillions of dollars and an entire era of paying and clandestine activity

3.politcal leadership was bad; so was the leadership of the presidents of the 30’s Hoover was inefectual, fdr was hated by many

Like the authors most people confuse the mythos of ww2 and think the entire 30’s were that way, not true the us was muddled and chaotic all the ash until 1942 when the war washed all that away for the greater cause

That’s not the point of the book dick. It’s abot how we as a society react to events and what we don

The 1850's were pure 3T. The whole point was the society was clearly coming apart at the seams and they lost the ability to compromise anymore. The punctuation mark was the paralysis of the Buchanan Administration, calling secession illegal but claiming that they couldn't stop it.
If anything, S&H made a mistake by not including Reconstruction in the Civil War 4T.
In the case of #1, the Unravelling accelerated after it. Katrina showed just how thoroughly unequipped we all were to respond to a Crisis. We were dumb, soft, and disorganized. Compare the response in Houston and Florida to see what a tougher, 4T America looks like.
2. The GWoT or whatever we call it nowadays is a textbook 3T war. It's low casualty, politically divisive, and creates more problems that feed the coming Crisis than it resolves. The Mexican War was like this. After we won, it added new territories and exacerbated the Slave vs Free State conflict.
For #3, Obama played the role of Hoover. He genuinely wanted to mobilize, but had no idea how. Voters ultimately punished his party for lack of action and failing to unite the country. It's not because everybody went right-wing, sorry to say.
The Crisis spark was in 2008. I would say Trump's election was the start of the Regeneracy. Things are speeding up, as everyone can tell. The real 4T war is going to be horrible and it's coming.
Right now, we're at Inauguration Day, 1861 or maybe August, 1939 in terms of the progress of the 4T.
It's following the prescribed course and Trump is playing his role properly.

Is Trump the grey champion as mentioned in the book?

>1850’s was pure 3t

Literally skirmishes in Kansas and Missouri, actual rebellions?

As I said we are far too focused on ww2 as the modes of cris. Ww2 was from dec 1941 to September of 45

The crisis started in 1929 so for 11 years there was nothing decisive or unifying or anything. It’s us taking the end of the crisis and looking back

And we don’t need to follow the same model to ww2 either, ww2 happened when America was nowhere near as dominant as it is now in a mural to polar word

Here we have a country that ata the peak of its power with no reasonable geological rival, of course we aren’t going to have to fight a war st the scale we did 70 years ago.

This is a never ending debate though for fans of the book we will have to see how things pan out, if the crisis continues until the middle of the 2020’s then 2008 was for sure the trigger of it ends in 2020-2021 it’ll be 2001

Hopefully

More than you think, they could have influenced three people each who would in turn influence three more and so on.

>At worse, they'll turn us into an authoritarian China of the Cultural Revolution.
They are already doing that, albeit their control is not as total. The modern left is quintessentially Maoist

>grey champion

"“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.”– Strauss & Howe–The Fourth Turning"

That second to last sentence sounds like Trump for sure.

Are we just looking at American history? Because if anything I'd say the US represents either preWWI UK right now. We're essentially in what amounts to twilight years of the empire but not the end of the country.

In the last 3T, we had domestic terrorism at OKC and 9/11. Those two events killed far, far more people than Bleeding Kansas (maybe 100 dead?)
Violence is part of the Unraveling, but it's limited. McVeigh didn't bring about a right-wing uprising. 9/11 was a one-off. They couldn't follow up.
"Skirmishes" is the key word.
In world war terms, we're faced with the fact that we're a declining power being challenged in an area that's critical to our national interests (the Pacific Ocean and the trade routes in the South China Sea) by China and NK. China is a rising empire. We're receding. That is an ingredient for conflict. Worse, we've managed to align ourselves against Russia, stupidly, and are pushing them into a "war is the only option" mode with our sanctions and proxy wars.
The 4T war won't have anything to do with 9/11 and won't be fought over irrelevant wastelands like Afghanistan or Niger, ffs.

I would disagree that we are at the twilight years of empire

It would be a very short lived one but we are certainly at a precarious time

Fourth Turning primarily deals with Anglo-America. The authors start around the War of the Roses as the first 4T.

No fourth turning has immediately resulted in widespread social consensus

It needs to be a crisis before it has a resolution

We didn’t have 1929 and then immediately jump to Normandy

We didn’t have the fugitive slave law and immediately jumb to secession

We didn’t have stamp act an immediately ratify the constitution

Look at the glorious revolution in England as a closer analogy to our current crisis I’d think

And yes, I think you're right. We're still powerful, but new threats are rising and we don't want to deal with them. The 3T war that was WW1 weakened the British Empire and led into the 4T war that ultimately brought it down.
That could happen to us.

I hope you some of you guys have read this book.

It's about Gog and Magog, who war in the Middle East and bring about nuclear holocaust by the end the 1980s.

Gog and Magog are Russia and China, fighting the US over oil.

Jesus comes down from his chair in heaven and saves mankind, but not before 1/3 of all men perish in a pillar of flame.

I'm telling you, this is it, the End is Nigh, any day now...

Can someone give me a rundown of the book, and what a gray champion is? And how this relates to Trump?

I'm sticking with what one of the guys who actually came up with the theory said. Howe, it was.
During a 4T, one party gains control of the government at a certain point and dominates it for the remainder of the Crisis. Did that happen after 2001? No. The GOP lost Congress and then the White House. Then Obama lost both for his party as the 4T was underway.
NOW we're set for one party (GOP) to dominate with its control at all levels of government.
If you look for the actual telltale signs that you're in a 4T, it's obvious that it wasn't on in 2001. The political party dominance at the Regeneracy is a key one. Lincoln's Republicans took charge as did FDR's Democrats.
No, the unity doesn't happen immediately, but it MOVES that way. It didn't move that way in 2001. It went one way, then the other, then back again. The movement started after 2008.

Fourth Turning says that there is a repeating pattern in American history composed of 4 phases or "Turnings" that run combined over about 80 to 100 years.
There are 4 types of generations and each plays a particular role within a Turning that evolves over time.
In 1997, the authors claimed we were in a Third Turning, or "Unraveling" and that a Fourth Turning or "Crisis" was coming by 2008.
They accurately described a deteriorating economy, worsened political tensions, and the threat of catastrophic war. These are always features of Fourth Turnings.
The book started getting attention around 2008 when the Great Recession hit.

>referring to millennials as "they"
I knew we had some oldfags here but damn.

Gen-X. We 're doomed to watch the Boomers drag us into disaster and are horrified that the Millennials are the ones who will have to do the work to get us out of it.

but what is a gray champion?

MIllenials are in their 30s. You leave Collectivist College, where you and all your peers are on One Side, and the big, bad adult representing Authority is preaching to the class, so you are a Collectivist liberal schmuck. Many of us went through this stage.
Then comes Adulthood (occurring sometime in the early 30s, now). You have to pay taxes. No one gives a shit if you show up for work or not, they'll just replace you. hard-working and compliant Immigrants don't do as good a job as you, but they're far more compliant and corporate-led, so they take your jobs. Hollywood stops catering to you and starts catering to China, which has literally said they want all white people out of Asia (should sound familiar, the Imperial Japanese said the same thing). Your girlfriend is harassed by a pack of seedy minority thugs. You buy a gun. You make mortgage payments for a few years, it starts to dawn on you that this Collectivist shit is for the birds. That's money going to a school that you have to pay for for your kid, but most of the kids hate you because you're white. The Democrats openly state that White People will be ethnically-cleansed, you turn to look at your blue-eyed toddler and realize they mean her.
That process has been going on for decades and it's not going to stop., But it is pushed off into the mid-30s now. All 20-somethings are children. They *can't* be Men and Women. Infantilized.

Hard Times = Strong Men
Strong Men = Good Times
Good Times = Weak Men
Weak Men = Hard Times

I've read it and have recommended it on this board a couple times over the years whenever recommended reading threads pop up. Pretty amazing read that shows the cycles of history and gives you an idea of what the future may hold... Funny no-one ever mentioned this in any history classes I was forced to sit through.

Because it's bullshit.

A gray champion is an older person who shows up in the outbreak of a Crisis and provides an example and rallying point for others.
It's a legendary story from the Glorious Revolution or something. An old man showed up and stood up to a bunch of soldiers and prevented a fight, I think it was.
In this context, the Gray Champion has to be a Boomer who puts himself on the line and goes where the fight is.
Like Trump or not, he does that.

Nah, it's because most history teachers suck at their job. How do you make history boring?
All they focus on are facts and dates. They never try to attach any meaning or direction to history, beyond technological advances.
4T gives history meaning and helps us interpret our own time. You don't have to believe in it, but you can definitely find takeaways.
For example, I've found its characterization of Millennials to be extremely useful in previous jobs where I managed them. If you know how they think, they'll actually work hard for you. I got that from 4T.

got a pdf version?

>The modern left is quintessentially Maoist
This is true, "call-out culture" is like a mild version of what happened in the Cultural Revolution, and they've barely started yet

I've always been a little right of center but everything you wrote here is why I went full hardcore rightwing in the last 8 years.

If we go by Glubb's theory of empires lasting 250 years, the US has 100-150 years to go. Modern communications technology might have made Glubb's numbers obsolete though.

Why?

Because it doesn’t fit into the historical orthodoxy of acedemia atm?

Don't you have some viagra commercials featuring the music of Bob Dylan to watch, baby boomer?

If you don't know history, you understand absolutely nothing that goes on around you, you're like a person with a head injury or Korsakoff's Syndrome.

Link related, it's bannon's documentary:
youtube.com/watch?v=bsqu9gh6xhk

gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=410BF33FD903E98F0135E96ED59EBF06

Read the thread

Excellent, thanks user, I was trying to think of the title.

I'm saving this one.

But is the Grey Champion successful?

Always. So far, anyway.

>You don't have to believe in it, but you can definitely find takeaways.
Ok, I agree with that view.
The problem is, ALL, I repeat, ALL 'hard coded' history predictors are wrong.
Psychohistory was part of an Asimov scifi novel.
>supercomputers and superbrains have finally figured out how to predict history using 10s of thousands of years of history.
So it's fiction.
When a book like 4T shows up, using hard-coded historical precedents to predict history, you KNOW it's wrong.
Are there important takeaways? I'd have to believe yes. And all books should be read that way.
48 Laws of Power is another good example of something that is useless, but contains a good amount of useful information. If you attempt power trips like that in Big Boy world, you are going to get punched in the mouth.

But I'm worried about Trump's lack of major legislative wins

>You realize when this was written right?

Yeah, way before major technological advances that allowed the State unprecedented levels of information about it's citizens that has never before been seen in history. And the propaganda mechanisms to disseminate disinformation almost instantaneously to everyone?

Do you think the State hasn't read this book? And that knowing even a little about this cycle, hasn't taken steps to protect itself and its interests? Your "Gray Champion" will be (was?) snuffed out the minute he outs himself on social media. Any semblance of a spark of an uprising will be doused and discredited.

All the "opposition" you see today is State sanctioned to keep the existing power structures in place.

What would be the use of a champion if there were no forces to fight? Trump is performing his role simply by standing up and calling them out.
If he stays true, the rest of society will follow. In a Crisis, people want a leader.

The true crisis of this 4th turning has not yet manifest and the real strong push to resolution has not yet begun. This is the calm before the storm.

It depends on your point of view

The book and the theory doesn’t say we are destined for great things

If you were Pro Nazi then the grey champion seems like a tyrant; if you were a loyalist or a rebel you feel the Same.

The crisis and grey champion don’t represent who was right, just who wins because whoever wins the ideological battles of are age will be declared “right” by nature of victory

I don’t personally see this happening but if for whatever reason the sjw left was victorious and white men became a new oppressed class then the greater culture would justify it as good and the right way to be

If right wing death squads save the day they will be seen as hero’s

Dissenting opinions will be pretty much extinguished not to be heard from again until the “awakening”. Aka 2nd turning

Will the Tea Party Movement be seen as the canary in the coal mine for this political wave?

How can you be a Sup Forumslack?
Trump is but one facet of this.
This shift is larger than Trump or Bannon.
They both recognized how Rightist ideas are currently stronger than the Left, and the Right is the future.
The GOP will continue to be the cock-gobbling turdburglars they've always been, but real Americans saw a tiny chance to put someone who said what they thought in power.
It will happen again and again, with increasing frequency.
Even if we lost in 2018 and 2020, this ride ain't over.

Lol I don’t think you read his book

It was written in1997 and much of our internet world was already beginning

The state can’t prevent anything because it is as much a product of history as anything, some sci-fi notion that you can stop the march of time and the social and cultural revolution of hundreds of millions is retarded

It’s just a way to analyze and view the our history not some secret power or knowledge

Sort of. The sentiments that motivated them and their superb political mobilization that wiped the Democrats out as a national party was significant.
However, the movement itself sputtered out when it started focusing on traditional 3T culture war issues and moved away from economic populism.
Trump's movement was built on its back, no question.

The internet will be the greatest vehicle for rendering the state utterly useless. Yeah they're abridging our liberties like the fucks they are, but technological progress is happening at such a breakneck pace and our government bureaucrats are so incompetent it won't keep up much longer.

>calm before the storm
What did he mean by this?

"Those who don't know history are bound to repeat it." Yeah I get it, user. Reading The Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire won't help anyone infiltrate an organization and blow the whistle resulting in possible national repurcussions. Reading a book on social engineering will. There is a time and place for Meditations. That time is not now.

Internet domain registration was given away to the UN by Obama.
Pretty much all interaction on the internet takes place on a private corporation's website. They can censor anyone they don't like.
Huge sums of cash poured by vaChina and Russiantodespotism into shills on the internet, confusing everyone and leading to widespread despondency, anime waifus, NEETs, never-been-kissed-virgins, and completely whacko HAPA misogynist mass murderers.
Yeah I won't hold my breath on the internet saving us.

It may have been written in 1997, but again it is drawing parallels between an entire period of time where a set of encyclopedias in a house was a sign of extreme wealth to the present where even the poorest have access to the entirety of human knowledge in their pocket. To say that human nature is constant despite a vastly different social environment is naive.

And we've spent trillions of dollars in the mean time researching human behavior. How people react to things, what's more likely to make them buy your products, social conditioning etc. It's not science fiction to think that humanity can be manipulated fairly easily on a macro level.

It's a good book that finds very interesting patterns in history but I do not believe it is entirely applicable to our current situation.

>encyclopedias in a house was a sign of extreme wealth to the present where even the poorest have access to the entirety of human knowledge in their pocket.
What have the poorest done with the sum total of digitized human knowledge?
>show bobs