Some interesting results from this paper: Conspiracy -------- Failure Time (95% likelihood) Moon-landing Hoax (Sustained / Constant) -------- 3.68 years Moon-landing Hoax (Single event / Gompertzian) -------- 3.68 years Climate-change fraud (Scientists only) -------- 26.77 years Climate-change fraud—including scientific bodies -------- 3.70 years Vaccination Conspiracy—CDC/WHO only -------- 34.78 years Vaccination Conspiracy—including drug companies -------- 3.15 years Suppressed Cancer cure -------- 3.17 years
Jason Hughes
Mathematical model from the paper. Straightforward Poisson statistical process.
Easton Johnson
Likelihood of failure over time, given conservative estimates of individual failure, and three modes of number of conspirators over time.
Isaac Mitchell
Estimation of value of p from known exposed conspiracies.
Chase Russell
The ultimate blackpill. If these were conspiracies, they ought to have already been exposed with high certainty.
The world is more mundane than it appears.
Juan Ramirez
The main reason for the problems in our world are not large-scale conspiracies but simple and plain human idiocy. Our leaders are degenerate numbnuts whose only talent is an instinct to manipulate the masses to follow their inane ideas.
Charles Watson
Grimes was born in the UK but spent his childhood in Saudi Arabia. Did al-towelhead fund this research? Is Grimes a semite? The real important questions Sup Forums
Brayden James
Classic, weak, NEET conspiratard move. Doesn't understand the mathematics (and doesn't how to check them themselves), and so attacks the author and their motives.
Gee, if only there was a way to check the content of the article without relying on the author. Oh wait.
Austin Richardson
Does this really matter? The mathematical model may be rough but the idea behind it is quite alright. Think about it. How many people do you know to who you may trust a vital secret. How many of whom you think they will NEVER under any circumstances betray that secret, not accidentially, not out of revenge for some perceived wrongdoing, not simply because they just cannot keep their stupid mouth shut?
Now depending on how many people (politicians, technicians, experts, soldiers, actors) you may require for your conspiracy of choice ... do you really think it is realistic that each and every one of them may keep their mouth shut? Nobody who may clumsily lose a bunch of documents? Nobody who has "12345" as his password because he is too stupid to remember it? Conspiracies only work on a really really small scale. Everything larger fails because for the big stuff you would need a lot of people. Even if they do not have the whole picture they need to know enough that they may threaten the whole construct if they let ANYTHING slip.
Big conspiracies are almost impossible to pull off for long. That is just a logical consequence.
Austin Fisher
This guy gets it. Also note the very conservative estimates of p in the paper (e.g. each individual person has a very low chance of exposing the conspiracy, either accidentally or intentionally).
Even with all parameters tuned in favor of conspiratorial leanings, conspiracies tend to collapse.
Read the paper.
Josiah Nguyen
They blackmail them idiot, it's how it's been for centuries. Kikes kill gentile kids and use that dark secret to bind them forever, the blood libel
Anthony Brooks
conspiracy is latin for fake news
Nolan Ross
You may blackmail somebody not to TELL anything ... given that you suspect the guy of being about to tell anything. By blackmail you may NOT prevent somebody from spilling it when he is eg. piss drunk. You may also not prevent the "I have lost vital data on my way to work ... oooops" scenario.
Cameron Torres
>they blackmail them, idiot >p = 10^-6
Opinion instantly discarded.
Jack Martin
>Alex Jones
>Not a Zionist shill.
Watch his debate with David Duke and you'll see the (((truth))) for yourself.
He got BTFO so bad he deleted the interview from his website and youtube and barred the term "David Duke" from the comment section. It was a complete "shut it down!" moment.
Justin Martinez
>replaces a crazy conspiracy with an even crazier one
Completely missing the point.
Cooper Sanders
Really, think about how blatantly stupid people around you, your friends, your family, may sometimes behave. What clumsy mistakes they make even if they are smart. You expect that the participants in a conspiracy are SOMEHOW much more disciplined than any other human being on earth ... almost ... superhuman. No mistakes. No fuckups. Man, if that is true ... then welcome our new conspirationist overlords ... because if that assumption is true, they are in each and every way superior to us.
Caleb Hall
Science is based on truth, not consesus of a tribunal group of elite.
Sebastian Hill
I don't give a shit lad, but you thinking there are no conspiracies or people behind the scenes trying to push an agenda, kill a problematic figure, destroy a rivals credibility for personal gain is insanely naive
Evan Lopez
When you spilling the beans means you go to prison for 40 years and your entire family name is thrown into the dirt it's a pretty big incentive to keep your mouth shut.
Mason Perry
fuck off with your pseudo bullshit. there is a reason the jews love stats, you can make them say w.e the fuck you want. kys idiot.
Aiden Reed
Literally fighting logic. Booze and drugs can make people reveal things they wouldn't otherwise do so.
Joshua Lewis
Again, you're criticizing my own beliefs -- which I haven't even spelled out -- instead of pointing out a single flaw with the paper's methodology.
How's that engineering degree working out for you?
Ayden Brown
>literally calling mathematics jewish
Looking forward to automating you out of a job.
John Adams
There are people without family. And that still does not prevent the accident scenario. Even if you know your ass is on the line ... it does not save you from fucking it up.
And the kikes? They are selfish fucks, they are a degenerate Afroasiatic-Semitic people like the Arabs. But they are not that organized. They just do not have opposition. They do not NEED a conspiracy because most people are too stupid or too lazy to not give in to their simple game. They are not the top predators as which they are portrayed in all these conspiracies ... no, they are simply PARASITES living off the degeneracy of our society. Yes, they push their agenda but they push it so blatantly that you just may not consider that a conspiracy because if you have halve a brain and ask the right questions you immediately see through their despicable little game.
Xavier Williams
It is not oppression by some evil overlords which makes our lives miserable ... it is our own idiocy and weakness! We will NEVER defeat the degeneracy of this modern society if we do not admit to the painful fact that we have brought that shit upon ourselves.
Wyatt Phillips
I honestly couldn't care less about this psudeoscientific tripe or your opinions.
Intrigue has been going on since the dawn of time, and it will continue to go on because it's insanely profitable
So what? Don't get blackout drunk or cranked out of your skull in public, and you make millions of dollars and don't go to prison. Impossible somehow in your mind
Also it is not just the kikes, but there are kabbalist kikes at the very top.
Kevin Richardson
As I have pointed out earlier ... conspiracies exist but usually they fail miserably after a while. Sometimes quickly, sometimes after years. There is always some idiot who fucks it up. That is human nature. IF the kikes are really that good, that intelligent, that disciplined then they fucking deserve to control everything ... however, I simply cannot believe that the kikes, those inbred pseudo-Arab mongrels are the one people in the world who do not breed morons who fuck everything up for everyone ... else, at least according to my racial theory, THEY would be the superhumans. No, my dear friend, simply no.
William Davis
Want a real kike conspiracy? Look for the "Vela incident" on skeptoid. Good read.
Lincoln Cox
Remember - every, EVERY, MSM outlet in print &, media claimed if you questioned the Warren Commissions conclusion that Oswald was the lone shooter you were a mentally ill conspiracy theorist (a term coined by the CIA). And only 60+ people died coincidentally.
Do not read INFOWARS - It is controlled opposition. Only get your news from government approved media outlets such as the CNN, New York Times, MSNBC, Newsweek, CBS, Eminem, Jimmy Kimmel, your neighbors dog, The View, Huffington Post, a well-respected Native American like Elizabeth Warren, Time Magazine, Buzzfeed, ABC, Stephen Colbert, your favorite football player, VOX, Jay-Z, Bigfoot, Washington Post, an imaginary friend who lives in your finger, inquisitr, Rob Reiner, NPR, a Nobel Prize winning scientist and internet inventor Al Gore, USA Today, female gold medalist Bruce Jenner, the New Yorker, War Hero John McCain, Madonna, a prominent Hollywood actor, an invisible leprechaun, your dog, my dog, or ESPN. When people look elsewhere for their "Fake News", it makes us glowworms at the CIA look inept and incompetent.
“The CIA owns everyone of any significance in the major media.” "We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false".
— former CIA Director William Colby
You just been Kek'ed
Nathaniel Robinson
Take your Zyprexa, democratfag.
Ayden Wood
They are not arab mate. Semetic jews are useless. They're khazars that converted a millennia or so ago. Ashkenazim.
It's one family, the rothschilds that have been running the show, because they own the central banks, and therefore all currency in circulation is a debt note to them, they loan it to the government. They've run things incompetently of course but their plans are so outlandish that no one believed them, when a courier was struck by lightning a few hundred years ago carrying documents the bavarian government didn't even believe what was written.
Also no I'm not saying they're responsible for all evil and everything bad or whatever just that they have immense power and wealth and scheme constantly to ensure they retain it.
Kevin Mitchell
you're on pol
Adrian Gutierrez
>applying math to human behavior
yeh no.
Noah Gray
>hurr you guys are stupid there's no conspiracy who's paying you ? what's the point of this thread if you're not convincing anyone here. you have to be extremely retarded to believe there's no conspiracy ruling this world.
also alex "don't talk about the JQ" jones is controlled op...
lurk moar you uneducated plebbitors. two years.
Kayden Morris
Did you actually ever take and pass an English class?
Jacob Lee
>we're going to base a bullshit hyppthesis on a bullshit formula that plugs in bullshit numbers amd the result will be truth.
"Science", ladies and gentlemen.
For example, large conspiracies involve greater than 1,000 agents. NO. Most of these hoaxes only have a few people directing things, and everyone else is kept in the dark. Obviously.
Justin Watson
Funny - you are the one familiar with pharmaceutical drugs - that shit makes you stupid, as demonstrated.
Andrew Bennett
Does this even account for compartmentalisation, this model assumes everyone in the conspiracy is aware of it.
We had a quarter of the US population working on the manhattan project and yet no one ever really knew until that flast lit up the vegas skyline.
Brayden Wright
But people come forward about conspiracies sometimes, just that msm and normies ignore them because it would collapse their fragile world view. Like NASA astronauts talking about ayy lmaos.
Then there are conspiracies that are eventaully vindicated, and immediately they cease to be conspiracies and it's forgotten that they ever were conspiracies. Like 2 shooters with JFK and many others.
Aiden Bailey
Compartmentalisation is discussed in the final section, and you can see different data sets where compartmentalisation has been assumed.
Xavier Baker
Didn't the manhattan project had like thousands of people working on it, using like 20% of electricity producen in the country at the time and that prohect lasted like 5 years in its process?
I think that you shouldn't underestimate how people can manage to pull big projects without anyone noticing.
Colton Torres
Pizzagate is real.
Lincoln Murphy
nice social studies paper how does this 'researcher' propose nations keep secrets, or how large scale investigations remain secret, if his model is so useful and predictive?
Jace Morris
tl;dr, CIAnigger.
Isaiah Jackson
CIA I A
NIGGER I G G E R
Joshua Gutierrez
Here's an idea. Apply the model to the Manhattan project, and get the numbers back here, and we'll see if there is an inconsistency. You can assume N(t) = N0 = number of scientists, who can be reasonablyh assumed to all know the intent was to build a bomb.
Kevin Cooper
The entire premise is flawed. The document itself is little more than a formal statement of intellectual elitism.
You realize that a surprise birthday party for a child is a conspiracy? My own city council holds meetings in executive sessions: meetings closed to the public to discuss matters in secret.
Charles Smith
>It's one family, the rothschilds that have been running the show, because they own the central banks, and therefore all currency in circulation is a debt note to them, they loan it to the government. >They've run things incompetently of course but their plans are so outlandish that no one believed them, when a courier was struck by lightning a few hundred years ago carrying documents the bavarian government didn't even believe what was written. >Also no I'm not saying they're responsible for all evil and everything bad or whatever just that they have immense power and wealth and scheme constantly to ensure they retain it. Not controversial.
Robert Sanders
This new Sup Forums feature is really handy.
Levi Watson
Hey remember when he said Frogs were turning gay? Everyone called him and idiot and a tinfoil hat. Then it came out that the frogs really were being turned gay and instead of saying "Holy shit this was actually happening" people instead ignored it entirely