Stock Market

When is the stock market going to crash? And why?

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There will be a 10% - 15% correction before the 2020 election

Whiter than you Mohammed

That's it?

>That's it?

Why assume there will be a crash like 1999 or 2008?

Stock markets don't always replicate past behaviour.

15% correction in 2018 then sideways (3% p.a., 1% real terms after inflation) for 10 years is possible.

This would correct the valuation of the US market, but in a less dramatic way than 2007-2009.

Seems like a bubble. I'm asking not telling though.

US price to earnings is 31 today. It reached 44 in 1999; the bubble could get larger.

there will probably be a huge correction when we decouple our corrency from the (((petro dollar)))

but it's best for the long term

...

So what does a young person do now? Do I invest in the stock market or wait for a big dip to buy?

2019

What am I looking at?

>When is the stock market going to crash? And why?
I don't give a fuck. I am selling my house ASAP. Like tommorrow. Me and my 40k equity are going away.

Net casinos are doing really well last time I checked

Depends on if the Jews decide to or not
It's be stupid on their part but they are very desperate right now

Oh damn thats what Q was talking about.

You think the housing market is going to crash again?

As soon as they can blame it on trump I'd guess 2018

It's a plot of the 5 main waves in the Elliot wave theory. It's a theory that economies come and
go in waves, so basically there are like 5 waves upwards before there's a correction downards.

It tends to be quite accurate a lot of the time when one looks at it during larger timeframes.
This chart specifically tracks OMX 30, aka the 30 largest companies in Sweden,
but you would probably see the same thing building in most indices due to the interconnection
of modern economies. For instance you can see that the chart starts with a big lowpoint in 2009,
just around and after the last financial crisis.

discord /B4bmaXX

Join our crypto discord to help us plan to overthrow the jewish capitalist system.

Never, Warren Buffet said the DJIA will be at a million in 100 years xD

And like in 2009 I am going to use the equity in my house to purchase another one to use as a rental.

housing in usa real prices have not recovered since subprime, you are looking long term (20 year bear market) much like japan did. same with many european bubble areas.

dow jones will keep rising, will probably double in 3-4 years. europe will face a serious banking crisis soo, db is looking to bankrtupt

You know that even if it is quietly accurate, it's probably because it's a self-fulfilling prophecy...
Right?

Not like that matters for the point of view of an ""investor"" though...
But it's more like playing some kind of elaborated gambling game with your friends.

There will be a crash at some point, and we are ill-prepared to handle it.

When crashes happen, the fed (and the govt) only have two real options... lower interest rates, or pump a lot of money in to the system.

But rates have been held artificially low since the last crash. So low, in fact, that they really couldn't cut them enough to make enough of a difference in a crash.

Meanwhile, the debt has gotten totally out of control, and I have doubt that foreign nations would be willing to but enough of it to matter in the event of a real crash.

On the plus side, the new I-phone is out. Which should make people happy. Because nothing says I love freedom like buying an overpriced phone made by chinese children in slave conditions and sold by a company who pays no taxes.

You sold your house right before the bubble burst and picked up a cheap home right after the crash to rent?

>You sold your house right before the bubble burst and picked up a cheap home right after the crash to rent?


I want out of my current house so fucking bad to get something bigger. :\

I was trying to learn about quantitative easing but I'm over my head. Is this what you are talking about?

I was reading the other day that because of quantitative easing, and the government releasing money into the system, that its now made its way to the stock market. Since interest rates are so low people are putting their money the only place it really works for them.

For someone just starting to invest now, do I want to wait for one of those big dips to buy into the market? Or should I be getting in now?

Ya, that's part of it.

Low interests rates also encourage people to borrow, since their monthly payment is lower.

And it encourages investment houses to borrow even more, and to pump it into the economy.

QE (free money) was supposed to go to the banks who would loan it out, but it didn't quite work out that way.

To the average consumer, it has the effect you're talking about. Since banks no longer pay any interest, it forces people to chance money in the stock market or other places.

it's not going to happen because people are waiting for it.
I made 300k in 08 and i'm waiting for the next fire sale.
I put my money into crash safe stocks, for the dividends, like utilities stocks.
ZZZZzzzz hurry the fuck up.

Does this encouragement to borrow become risky? Meaning people getting in over their heads? Or are the banks more strict now where that risk is lower?

>To the average consumer, it has the effect you're talking about. Since banks no longer pay any interest, it forces people to chance money in the stock market or other places.
That's where I'm at. I have a bunch of money sitting in the bank and I don't know what to do with it. I can put it in the stock market, but that is at an all time high - seems risky. I can't really do anything else with it than that... I'm trying to figure if I should just wait or what?

What do you mean? It's not going to crash because people are waiting for it to crash? I don't follow.

What are crash safe stocks? Don't they all go down?

How do you benefit from a crash?

There are stocks that gain in value when the market goes down, you buy those, like Proshares ultrashort stocks.

What are ultrashort stocks? I see they are ETFs, which is like a collection of stocks, right?

At least Europeans are poor af (mountain jews and (((liechtenstein))) aside), so we don't have to worry about investments.

>Don't they all go down?
no,

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>How do you benefit from a crash?
because a lot of them do go down and go back up later.
if you look at the majority bluechip stocks you'll see a pattern of crashes and recoveries.

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They are ETF funds. The funds buy market instruments that bet against the market, therefor the funds value is the inverse of whatever the market is, if the stock market goes up the fund goes down, and vice versa. So the Ultrashort stocks have gone down for 7 years now.

The current stellar growth is (((their))) way of creating breathing room for a monumental crash. This is the pump, the dump is soon to follow. They clearly take the current situation seriously enough to lose billions just to destabilize it. They also want to thin a lot of their own middle-ranks, which have become bloated since '08.

Basically they're pushing up the market artificially, so they can then have it return to trend, but have it look like a huge crash. Trump, unfortunately seems to have fallen for this trap, touting historical highs as a big positive for his presidency. Live by the sword, die by the sword, they may continue to pump it right up until the next election, when they'll tank it hard, or else they'll tank it for the midterms. Depends how they think they're polling most likely.

Okay but like P&G seems to have taken 5 years to recover, and other stocks did that too?

So do I wait for a "crash" to put money in? Or is it better to put money in and just try to weather the crash as best as possible?

Ah okay. But, there is no real way of knowing that, right? I mean how do you know when to buy something like that?

How do (((they))) control the market that well? I dislike jewish tricks as much as the next poltard but you sound a little conspiracy-stricken.

Putting more and more money into it of course. That's literally all it takes. Just pumping billions and billions of dollars into the market.

>So what does a young person do now? Do I invest in the stock market or wait for a big dip to buy?

Non-US markets are reasonably priced (not expensive or cheap): starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation

Silver is arguably the most underpriced asset in the world right now.

Otherwise, stay in cash for a couple of years.

The Jewish angle is ridiculous. No one owns more domestic equities than the Japanese Central Bank.

If you don't know or are unsure of what is happening, stay quiet rather than look stupid.

Quantitative easing is a jewish trick?

The thing I don't get about QE is what's the backlash from it? Like what breaks when you do QE?

Thank you. I'm going to look into all of this. I really appreciate it.

BRIC is the next up in coming market, right? So if I want to invest in that how do I invest into Brazil or China? Like what do I buy? Is there an ETF for that or something?

Silver is an ETF also?

I'm not buying into stocks right now unless in a "blood in the streets" play.

But I am building up my cash and dollar cost averaging into short funds for my main account and my IRA. From past experience, they can double in value in a crash. Sell them off and buy back into the equities/funds I believe will bounce back.

>BRIC is the next up in coming market, right? So if I want to invest in that how do I invest into Brazil or China? Like what do I buy? Is there an ETF for that or something?

iShares do a China ETF and a Brazil ETF. Each cost about 0.6%. ishares.com/us

China CAPE is about 17, Brazil is 12.4. starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation.

CAPE below 10 is cheap, 15 to 20 is reasonable, over 20 is seen as expensive. USA CAPE is 29. CAPE is one way of valuing stock markets.

The US like the UK has tax-advantaged accounts which can hold stocks, ETFs & mutual funds.

Physical Silver ETF ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund

The link between money and value for one thing. QE eventually correlates with inflation, and is cancelled out, because you're inventing money out of thin air, without creating anything else of value. It's the economic school of "LMAO WHY DONT WE JUST GIVE EVERYONE $100,000 AND WIPE OUT POVERTY", except in this case, it's more like why don't we just give all the already incredibly rich people a vast amount of money, pumping wealth in from the top, while they're already reaping a ton of wealth from the bottom.

We should intiuitively know that this is a false logic - living standards are dropping while raw economic figures are rising. Traditional logic goes that rises in GDP and stock markets correlate with increased living standards, but that's only the case when those rises are caused by greater spending power and economic franchise for the masses. You can boost GDP and stock markets by printing money and pumping it into them too, but it doesn't make any difference at all to the lot of the common man.

But if it keeps going up, those stocks will go down, right? I don't understand how you maneuver this. You don't want those short ETFs until it is actually crashing, but how do you really know?

Why do they say those are risky then? Even the ETF descriptions say they are? Because they emerging markets?

Next big market crash will be caused by blockchain bubble collapse

>Why do they say those are risky then? Even the ETF descriptions say they are? Because they emerging markets?

They have to say that for regulatory reasons. And of course stocks are risky (1999, 2008 etc).

Silver is more volatile than Gold and will perform worse in a crash (but better than stocks). Silver does look very cheap, but it could be a year or two before the market responds.

Technically China is an emerging market, but it's the second largest economy in the world, growing middle class and so on.

>tfw missed the dotcom bubble, the social media/app bubble, the late 2000s crash, the bitcoin craze
>tfw the next crash/financial crisis is on the horizon and you won't be able to capitalize on it because you're a NEET with no assets

I guess I've no one but myself to blame.

nice meme chart

financial astrology

Are investment types at banks worth talking to? Like Bank of America Private Investments wants to come by and talk to me about investing...

The next happening we might miss too. I was broke in 2008/9 still in college, but this next crash I have a chance.

And yeah I missed bitcoin too but that's still extremely speculative. Very cool though.

Yeah i know this feel. The market intimidated me for a long time. I was too frightened to lose my shirt.

This image is stupid. Even if it were a true phenomenon, it would've been defunct the moment it was published to the wider world.

This.

History repeats itself all the time? That sure does look like the dot com bubble and the subprime drops to me. I mean it kinda looks like this:

There are economic crashes, yes. These things all happen as a consequence of human action, though, and once people use historical analysis of economic trends to change their behaviour to suit future trends, the future trends themselves will change. Once it becomes published that "the fear stage will occur two days after the bull trap stage", people will change their behaviour and the previously noticed phenomenon will no longer occur.

And yes, there will always be bulls and bears. What else could occur? The truth of the matter is that the fact of this cannot predict the future events of the market with any detail. If people could see that the 2008 financial crash would occur when it did, then it wouldn't have occurred when it did.

Makes sense. So what do I do? Just wait for the next bear market and when it starts to seem to be stable and going up again put money in?

You do not understand the cost of living in America. 30% of adults are obese. 25% of children have a chronic disease. 40% have diabetes, or pre-diabetes. This care isn't free, unless you are under the poverty level (depends on dependents and how many people live in your house). Medical debt is huge. And insurance costs are sky rocketing. Millennials are making bad money, even with degrees (of course, some have done better) and are not repaying debts.

>US price to earnings is 31 today. It reached 44 in 1999; the bubble could get larger.

That's not the price to earnings. That's something else. That's the price to 10 years worth of earnings. That's the CAPE price/earnings also known as the Shiller P/E ratio.

The actual P/E is around 25.75, which is higher than the average but certainly not earth shattering. The US stock market could keep going up for a while. pic related

Don't go all into one thing (diversify investments), go into investments that react differently to the market (such as: gold price usually rises when the general market is doing poorly, DOW JONES 100 usually rises as the market rises), try not to go into an asset that absolutely everyone is talking about. The first two are definitely good advice, the latter may be often good advice, or at least something to keep in mind.
Do your own research if you have a small amount, or just get somebody to invest your funds if you're rich. Keep a little aside if you want to play with it and experiment in high-risk things of your own liking.
I personally think that now is a good time to buy some BTC (or in a few days), and I think that it will continually rise.
No need to trust me on this, though, look into it yourself and make your own judgement. Also worth taking into consideration the fact that BTC, as a currency, holds price differently to commodities. Mises' regression theory goes into this, makes it seem clear to me that BTC is going to behave differently to regular stocks.
Profit is made on speculation according to one's knowledge of future market conditions. As such, if you know things that others don't, you will make larger profits. If there's anything that you know a lot about, perhaps look into investments in certain areas of that field if there's an area open for it.

Also:
Unless you are a master, do not try to buy and sell things to ride short waves on price gains and to predict incoming price falls. The masters will beat you in speculation and you will probably lose money. Find good long-term investments.

>gold price usually rises when the general market is doing poorly

Gold is more complicated than that. A better explanation is that precious metals are an inflation hedge. If an economy has a lot of inflation the stock market can go up at the same time as gold.

Right now official inflation numbers are low so gold has gone sideways the past few years while the stock market has done well.

zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-31/what-stocks-do-during-hyperinflation

How does that relate to P/E? I'm asking, not saying it doesn't. What do you think the result of this situation will be?

Is P/E the main metric that shows a bubble and/or when over causes pops?

>get somebody to invest your funds if you're rich. Keep a little aside if you want to play with it and experiment in high-risk things of your own liking.
I have about 902,000 USD in the bank. Is that "get someone else to do it for you" territory?

Yeah, I've looked at BTC but looks so speculative and risky. Like it could just be zero as soon as someone hacks it somehow (I know they have answers for all of this).

So basically don't day trade? I have a Robinhood account I've been fucking around with just to learn, but I only have 2500 in it.

>Are investment types at banks worth talking to? Like Bank of America Private Investments wants to come by and talk to me about investing...

Sure but talk to them for a one-off fee

Don't pay some cunt to manage your money, you'll suffer negative compounding from their % fees

Tomorrow. Mueller Massacre incoming.
>800+ officials arrested

Thanks. Yeah they want a percent every year. Would suck if it went down and still have to pay.

High CAPE is correlated with low or negative 10 year returns

The inverse is true for low CAPE

The debt kills the dollar.

I've done some research and have noticed that it rarely seems to crash between mid-November (the dot com bubble was the latest in the calendar year). and the new year. My suspicion is because there's all this Christmas spending that propels the economy for a while. It typically seems to crash in the fall, so what I'm getting at is that I suspect we are good for the next year or so at least. My guess is it will crash heavily in either fall 2019 or fall 2020. But maybe spring just to switch things up a bit. The booming economy is kind of new thing right now, but it will probably bust like a mother fucker--maybe like nothing we've ever seen.

>Thanks. Yeah they want a percent every year. Would suck if it went down and still have to pay.

Vanguard charge 0.3% which is not bad considering their funds have low expense ratios on top of that. nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/vanguard-personal-advisor-services-review/

Given you post on Sup Forums, you're kind of out of 'normie' thinking territory and should be able to manage your investments on your own.

>Is P/E the main metric that shows a bubble and/or when over causes pops?

No, it's a measure of how much an investment is returning. Suppose you own a house and you're renting it out. The amount of rent you're collecting is the earnings.

You lost me.

You'll see the first indications with a Canadian and Australian housing market fiasco. Then, US Bonds are next. After that, buckle the fuck up.

late 2018.

P/E is the company earnings in the stock market or the investor earnings?

Like Ali Baba has some great earnings report, that means their P/E is high? Or is it Ali Babe has a great earnings report and the stock goes up, so then the investors P/E is high?

Investors can prevent the stock market from crashing, if they don't chimp out when they see an opportunity to make money, and create a bubble that's bound to burst at some point, then, we're safe.

The next big crash (as in, 1929 big) will happen before 2030, I think

very soon because now they can blame it n trump; he shouldn't have sacked yellen and he shouldn't have claimed the bull market on his administration. he's fucked in this dimension.

It's correlated for sure

If you notice the worst year to invest had a low cape of 12.99

In other words, US stocks cost about $30 per $1 of earnings. Historically this is expensive, although we did reach a PE of 44 in 1999 before the dotcom crash.

High CAPE indicates expensive stocks. Ideally you want to buy things when they are cheap. The US is expensive. In 2009 to 2011, the US stock market was cheap.

Buy when there's "blood in the streets". People think that's a metaphor, but it is not. Sell when something is constantly in the news. The next time people think the world is ending, put a little bit of your savings in (nothing you can't afford to lose) and you'll probably end up rich. Consider this: In your lifetime, at some point, a house will probably be worth way more than $100 in Detroit, which was the going rate last time I checked. So that's probably a good investment, even though it seems like the worst decision you could make. Also, the next time you see something that people are lining up for--the first apple iphone, buy that stock.

Thank you, really appreciate the help. Are they as good as a US Trust Private Wealth Management? They are who want me to invest with them. They claim to do better than Vanguard, but their fees are higher too. They are banking on me selling my business I think, since 902k isn't usually what they are interested in.

Ah okay, thank you! I understand now.

how can the deficit be so low? is something missing from this graph? expenditures? interest due?

Because there has been a crash like clockwork every 9-10 years for the past 50 years?

Short term bonds. Get about 2% returns every 3 mo.

After it's already tanked, I assume you mean? I guess the problem is knowing where the bottom is...

Completely understand what you mean about Detroit and those types of situations though.

Vanguard are the largest and most reputable mutual fund company. Their founder Jack Bogle is the father of passive investing.

I have not heard of the company you posted, maybe they're fine.

An overview of the big 3 who offer robo advising: investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/030816/roboadvisor-platforms-vanguard-vs-blackrock.asp

Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do.

This thread. Unbelievable guys.
What the fuck are you doing with your money?
Go grab a book and read some financial basics, read some investment books, read taxes. Read, read, read. I mean how can you be redpilled in so many aspects but still getting robbed although you are familiar with the systems at play?

Divide the money into 5 parts and invest it into the etf of choice over several months. Youre not gonna beat the market.

>Because there has been a crash like clockwork every 9-10 years for the past 50 years?

No, there was a bull market from 1982 to 1999, with a blip in 1987 (Black Monday).

Just because the US is expensive now, doesn't mean the party won't go on for another 5 years.

No one can time the market. Seth Klarman and Warren Buffet don't claim to know how to time the market.

It looks like there are a few bubbles waiting to burst right now. Mainly Housing for a second time and education.

Thank you.

Suggested reading?

What do you mean? I understand ETFs but I was asking about waiting to buy a dip versus hoping in now - which is for sure not a dip. Or are you saying there is just no way to know when a dip is so just buy in whenever?

Why housing? I thought that was pretty tight now. Highly regulated and watched?

I am starting think this lee56% thing was hijacked and used to derail threads considering most of the users are American.

ITT: Sup Forums tries to time the market instead of dollar cost averaging their way to success.

Stay goy, faggots.

Can you explain the difference?