It's no secret that something is going on in the market. This growth isn't sustainable and the DOW hasn't seen a proper adjustment. Considering that the housing bust almost completely flattened the U.S. and the world markets, it's safe to say this crash could be the final nail.
This next crash could yield a depression, in short. Of course, the U.S. and world markets will rebound at some point, but economic downturns that drastic usually result in geopolitics getting incredibly hot. The problem now is that there are many different countries hosting nuclear weapons whom have no need to use them. However, if they can't feed their people anymore or they need to bolster their nation's manufacturing through war... we could see very bad things happen.
My question is whether or not Sup Forums is ready for this? We're talking mass layoffs and obliteration of safety nets. You could eat out of the trash, but that's only if others around you can afford to waste the food in the first place. A bit of a sick luxury at the moment that might fade when the market comes down. My other question is how exactly Trump is going to fare. He's openly hostile towards allies and their policy at the moment. One could only imagine what would happen when his constituents are starving and frustrated. Would you expect an isolationist policy? Would you expect any economic insight from him given he has a history of corporate bankruptcy? Fortunately Trump has a cabinet and advisers that can crunch through the numbers and provide him with options. But those same advisers and cabinet members are the ones from wall street that can't properly predict bubbles and whom consistently push for policy to create an environment where bubbles can occur.
This shit is scary. I'm not one to go all /x/ or chicken little, but the signs are definitely on the wall in this case.
>He's openly hostile towards allies and their policy at the moment. Stop watching CNN.
Elijah Gray
What crash would it be? I don't see it being a housing collapse (no $0 down teaser rate loans) or a tech bubble (many tech companies make profits). A crash in crypto isn't big enough to tank the system and there's no indication of some major political event fucking shit up. I'm open to the idea that there will be a crash, since the stock rally has been insane, but I don't see how it would crash.
Joshua Young
>Stop watching TV. *ftfy
Zachary Williams
Bring it *cheerleading gif*
Adrian Phillips
>I don't see it being a housing collapse (no $0 down teaser rate loans)
You're talking about adjustable loans, previously called NINJA loans back in the day. They're still happening, currently referred to as alternative income verification loans.
>tech bubble (many tech companies make profits)
I don't have a comment on this. Especially with the paradise papers showing liquidity on offshore accounts of big tech companies like Apple.
>What crash would it be?
I'd like to know. It's not like I could afford to put me in a position to gain from it, but it'd be a lot better knowing what industries wouldn't be too badly effected by it.
Lincoln Mitchell
>This next crash could yield a depression, in short. It could. Or it could be mild. You have no fucking clue what it's going to do or when. Eternal growth is not sustainable but that doesn't mean that growth is impossible; big growth does not necessarily have to be followed by a gigantic crash that wipes it all away.
Sebastian Reyes
Creation of a central bank means the whole system will crash one day. It is inevitable.
Christopher Morris
NESERA is upon us.
Robert White
>big growth does not necessarily have to be followed by a gigantic crash that wipes it all away
Current growth rate from the housing bust till now is 320% more than the growth rate from the tech boom to the housing bust. Not the growth value, the growth RATE. If that isn't a red flag for you then I don't know what would be.
Caleb Moore
Huh. Never heard of NESERA before. Sounds pretty misguided. Advocating for any ideal inflation rate is going to result in a crash.
Cameron Jenkins
Don't worry We have the degeneracy of the wymar republic now With a crash and hyperinflation we will have the rest of the ingredients for the rise of the next Hitler
Angel Johnson
>Harvey Francis Barnard, a Louisiana graduate in systems philosophy, and an engineering consultant and teacher, created the NESARA proposal during the late 1980s and early 1990s. He printed 1000 copies of his proposal, titled Draining the Swamp: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Reform (1996)
>DRAIN >THE >SWAMP
Forgives credit card, mortgage, and other bank debt due to illegal banking and government activities Abolishes income tax Abolishes IRS; creates flat rate non-essential "new items only" sales tax revenue for government Increases benefits to senior citizens Returns Constitutional Law Establishes new Presidential and Congressional elections within 120 days after NESARA's announcement Monitors elections and prevents illegal election activities of special interest groups Creates new US Treasury currency, "rainbow currency," backed by gold, silver, and platinum precious metals Returns Constitutional Law to all our courts and legal matters. Initiates new U.S. Treasury Bank System in alignment with Constitutional Law Eliminates the Federal Reserve System Restores financial privacy Retrains all judges and attorneys in Constitutional Law Ceases all aggressive, US government military actions worldwide Establishes peace throughout the world Initiates first phase of worldwide prosperity distribution of vast wealth which has been accumulating for many decades Releases enormous sums of money for humanitarian purposes Enables the release of new technologies such as alternative energy devices And much, much more.
Jonathan Myers
charts like that are meaningless without normalization to some index like GDP.
Yes, a crash is overdue. The question is, what is the bubble? Bubbles are by definition where value is due to artificial not real demand, i.e. demand creates demand.
I wonder if it might have to do with the relative shrinkage of the total stock market capitilization.
and/or the absurd growth of ETFs.
and/or algorithmic trading.
and/or the flight of capital from Asia and Russia seeking refuge in the West.
We need a good stiff Flash Crash to wake these retards up.
Jack Russell
>mfw people see "$5 trillion added to the market!" as a good thing, and not a sign of what is to come
Angel Jenkins
>My question is whether or not Sup Forums is ready for this? We're talking mass layoffs and obliteration of safety nets. This has been daily life in Finland after 2008 crash which from Finland has not recovered properly even today thanks to EU's anti-Russian trade restrictions and fall of Nokia. Next crash will turn Finland into Weimar Republic which will benefit the rise of extreme groups.
Cameron Perez
>Abolishes income tax >Abolishes IRS; creates flat rate non-essential "new items only" sales tax revenue for government
>Increases benefits to senior citizens >Monitors elections and prevents illegal election activities of special interest groups >Retrains all judges and attorneys in Constitutional Law
Do you not see something wrong with these two groupings? How exactly is the government going to do the latter given the former? More importantly, how are they going to have the money.
Nathan Butler
the clue that everyone missed in the last bubble crash was the skyrocketing debt load of the homebuyers and stagnant wages.
If a skyrocketing debt source could be identified that would be a big fat clue.
Leo Cox
I saw drain the swamp. Meh. It sounds like a delusional technocracy that uses a national sales tax to justify acceptance by the populace.
Nathan Young
Watch the hidden secrets of money by Mike Maloney(episodes 4,6 and 7). Its the best explanation out there.
The world economy can't collapse if we all die when Nibiru returns tomorrow
Benjamin Smith
The fiat system is going to reset and wipe out peoples savings. Those 401ks don't exist. Giant ponzi schemes run by the government. If we can abolish the FED and introduce sound money we will recover well, but its going to be a hell of a 5 years at least
Bentley Ward
...
Jaxson Hernandez
>This next crash could yield a depression, in short. G O O D
Isaiah Lopez
>i dont know how dow works You realize that dow is a collection of stocks right? If one of their stocks starts to suck they replace it. It can literally never go down as long as the market is healthy
Adrian Watson
Well golly gee Senator, I don't know where we can come up with the extra cash.
Justin Anderson
Buy bitcoin
Henry Collins
...
Thomas Evans
bitcoin and art arent fucking bubbles if anything a crash would probably drive up art maybe bitcoin too
Samuel Roberts
...
William Scott
I thought it was the Bond market that was the worry even though stocks are overdue as well
Brandon Smith
...
Lucas James
who else /shorting/ the market here??
Elijah Peterson
The credit debt will cause insolvency and spread to other sectors. Invest in hard assets companies
Jason Young
...
Samuel Rodriguez
Student and auto loans?
Hunter Myers
The plan is to use stable US Treasury money (which is debt-free) instead of Federal Reserve money (which must be paid back with interest). The later causes credit contractions and price implosions during crashes.
Trump should just have the Treasury print United States Notes to pay for his infrastructure plan.
>United States Notes were issued directly by the US Treasury to pay for stuff. >United States Notes were dollars that circulated along side Federal Reserve Notes. >United States Notes exchanged 1-for-1 with Federal Reserve Notes by law. >Federal Reserve Notes are issued by a private corporation: The Federal Reserve. >The Federal Reserve lends Federal Reserve Notes to the Treasury/US Government. >The Treasury/US Gov must pay back Federal Reserve Notes with interest to the private bankers/Fed. >Borrowing Federal Reserve Notes creates enormous debts for the Treasury/US Government. >Printing/spending United States Notes creates NO debt for the Treasury/US Government. >The last president to try to print United States Notes was JFK. He was assassinated. >Trump can have $1 Trillion of new spending on infrastructure with no debt! >Yes, United States Notes are inflationary if you print too many. >However, anything is better than being in perpetual debt to the private bank/Fed/hyenas.
Juan Gray
...
Isaac Price
now this chart makes sense
Hunter Smith
Medicare and medicaid?
Gabriel Stewart
ponzis are all the wall street hedge funds
Bill Gross and Ray Dalio are the two biggest con artist ponzi schemers in all history and they are worshipped to this day
Eli Stewart
>Harvey Francis Barnard, >Eliminates the Federal Reserve System
Did he died? Suicide by 5 shotgun blasts to the back of the head?
Parker James
What would you invest in right when everything’s done tanking and the world is SHOOK
Jaxson Price
If I knew how, I would short the shit out of Facebook
Chase Wright
Those two a big part of the reason why the net US debt hit $103 trillion a month or two ago. I advocate for enacting an altered version of NESARA, one that doesn't have any state handouts.
Alexander King
...
Asher Rodriguez
>It's no secret that something is going on in the market.
It's called effective 0% interest rates. All boom and bust cycles are a pure function of money supply. When (((Federal Reserve))) contracts money supply things will get pretty shaky, until then they can keep inflationary (((growth))) going virtually indefinitely.
Jayden Wright
i dont know but I think thats where Trump got DTS from and I also think thats why Trump has been meeting world leaders all year. Getting their support and telling them what's up. Trump got INVITED to the forbidden kingdom in china. Never happened before.
Jackson Johnson
Public-Sector Pensions are a guaranteed depression. But that may not happen for another 5-10 years. But it's guaranteed unless a literal genocide of baby boomers worldwide occurs.
Levi Jackson
Art is a funny thing. I saw a painting go for more the other day than for a 10% substantial stake for in Madison square garden. Yet I bet one really good concert would have more artistic value than the life of that shitty painting. Seeing as it would fill a stadium but the painting would never.
Camden Turner
My pet theory is that they're waiting to collapse everything until they feel the time is right. Then they can introduce us to GLORIOUS COMMUNISM to """save""" us all. And by save, I mean enslave and strip away all democratic rule and basic rights. And yeah, the markets/banks are fucked beyond belief.
Henry Ramirez
pensions and bonds my man
Alexander Johnson
>charts like that are meaningless without normalization to some index like GDP
You can normalize GDP and DOW with respect to inflation, but I'm not so sure you can normalize DOW to GDP. If you can, I'd sure like to know how.
>and/or algorithmic trading
HFT is fucking insane. But the sessions are short, because that system relies on ques. So the "damage" a script does is pretty isolated to however long it's running, which isn't actually that long.
On the bright side of this. If the entire world sees a crash, then the EU is going to want to bolster trade with whoever they can to get them out of the rut.
I mean, you know... the economy would still collapse.
Okay little buddy, thanks for your input.
Nicholas Cook
The number of common stocks traded on major U.S. exchanges are the fewest in three decades.
"Currently, there are just 3,267 stocks in the University of Chicago's CRSP data, and this is the lowest since 1984," wrote DeSanctis.
couple shrinkage of total market with rampant corporate stock buy backs, wouldnt that create a P/E bubble?
Isaiah Walker
healthcare costs will consume the entire federal budget in about 8 or 9 years. it will obviously not last that long.
Cameron Gonzalez
You've got to have deep pockets. QE can last longer than you.
Samuel Jenkins
>China
When Trump returned from that trip he made a speech in which he said Israel was our greatest ally and the US would never turn their back on them. No idea what Israel had to do with a trip to East Asia but he brought them into it. Clearly Trump has no plan to distrupt the global financial (((banking system))), that's just wishful thinking on your part.
Owen Ward
The market is so inflated a crash is going to be like a 6 mile wide asteroid hitting the planet.
Easton Bell
ITS NOT HIM.
THE TRUTH WILL BE REVEALED
EVERYTHING
JFK UNTIL TODAY
THE TRUTH ABOUT HITLER
Gabriel Torres
TRUMP CAN LARP AS SHABBOS GOY ALL HE WANTS
JEWS WILL BE EXPOSED WORLDWIDE
Isaac Gray
>> 150028585
student debt loans among the big causes this time around for me
Gabriel Foster
Honestly, it will probably just keep going up since there's no fixed amount of fiat currency and it becomes worth less every day.
Jason Turner
And when the markets unhealthy... What happens... That's what OPs getting at. The P/E ratio spike is the big red flag of market inflation. Lots of money but nowhere to put it, basically. Earnings are doing better under Trump so who knows what's really going to happen.
Brandon Robinson
>
ridiculous art auction prices are a good bubble metric since it shows how much excess wealth is being generated, since you get to see the extreme wealthy competing with each other, and the degree to which they boost prices for useless status symbols shows what they are seeing in their accounts
Owen Turner
this. everybody read this post.
Jordan Russell
>many tech companies make profits some do, but it's meaningless if stocks are trading 200+ times their earnings.
Anthony Anderson
This. Americans should be proud. You guys can print as much as you want and when a country decides they don't wanna use us dollars because they are mass printers you Americans with your mighty war machine crush them
David Scott
Stock Buybacks Are Killing the American Economy - The Atlantic theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/kill-stock-buyback.../385259/ Feb 8, 2015 - Stock Buybacks Are Killing the American Economy ... Richard Drew/AP ... Yet despite this extra $1 trillion a year in corporate profits, job ... Over the past decade, the companies that make up the S&P 500 have spent ... real economy and into a paper-asset bubble, inflating share prices while .... Wouldn't you? Missing: shrinkage total rampant e Investors Beware, These Bubbles Are Ready To Burst - Forbes forbes.com/sites/.../investors-beware-these-bubbles-are-ready-to-burst/ Sep 11, 2017 - Most investors seem to think that a major bull market top occurs on ... Stock Buybacks: The Greatest Deception ... Furthermore, if very high P/E ratios should be a sign to avoid stocks, ... We all like to use Uber, but a valuation of $68 billion for a company ... But it doesn't change the total earnings of the firm. Missing: shrinkage rampant wouldn Stock Buybacks: What's Keeping the Market Up | Fortune fortune.com Finance stock buybacks Apr 25, 2016 - Stock buybacks have reached their highest point since 2007, but investors should be careful. Buybacks can manipulate a company's EPS. Missing: shrinkage rampant wouldn p bubble
Jason Sanchez
You don't know what you're talking about, you know that right? The liquidity in any exchange traded stock that's found in sp500 (which is what algos will trade) is enormous. All algos now have vol controls input. Look up VWAP control. It's so the art of selling a huge position doesn't actually move the market. Most ETFs have vol controls these days too. Any bank proprietary index at least will solve for vol controls ( i.e. MSUS MAP2)
Also, normalization in the context of finance is just a ratio. The typical Dow to USD gdp graph you'll find on any Bloomberg terminal is simply a ratio between the two.
Please educate yourself before spreading misinfo.
t. I work on wall street
Cameron Rivera
Ok I'll tell you whats up with the crash. We are currently in 1987. We were in 1929, but Trump might have gotten us out of it. Essentially the bond market is somewhat failing. If IR rates most go positive there is doubts that US would be about to handle that debt w/o massive inflation.
The deal with Saudi Arabia about Aramco being on the NYSE essentially just solidified the Petrodollar we were losing control of. This will ease worries about bonds due the dollar being back by oil again. Not to mention flood the US markets with capital with everyone from everywhere trying to get a piece of the pie. As long capital keeps flowing in the market will grow. I can see a 30k-40k in under a year. Once the money stops flowing, then the crash will occur, but our currency will still have value.
Aaron Baker
>
but are student loans being leveraged and securitized like mortgages in 2008?
The total debt size is comparable at about a trillion I think? but every mortgage was resold like 100 times with securitization
Australia is full of fish, cane toads and rabbits. We wont starve, that's all the really matters.
Crash the absolute fuck out of it.
Chase Long
That graph must be outdated. Germany spends less than Botswana and surprise surprise they can now afford to send citizens to college for free.
The US would keep it's citizens retarded and continue to add retarded immigrants who worry more about hand outs, than the future when voting.
Samuel Howard
The "newly discovered" Leonardo painting just sold for $450 million. Many experts doubt it is a Leonardo. $450 million of stupid money spent on a painting that sold for 60 GBP seventy years ago.
Christopher Wood
They'll fucking blow his head off just like they did JFK if he tries this.
I doubt he has a death wish.
Luis Wood
>
so where is the big bubble these days?
what about total stock market capitalization shrinkage and stock buybacks inflating stock prices?
How big are the algo traders relative to all trading? Was the flash crash ever explained?
Camden Young
Hey can you tell me if I am correct on this?
Parker Clark
Sup Forums and /new/ before it has been talking up a crash for nearly 10 years now. Ironically enough, one is probably due sooner rather than later.
>Look at the yearly earning of the S&P 500 for each of the past ten years. >Adjust these earnings for inflation, using the CPI (ie: quote each earnings figure in 2017 dollars) >Average these values (ie: add them up and divide by ten), giving us e10. >Then take the current Price of the S&P 500 and divide by e10.
Basically the money that is slushing around in stocks right now is now at pre-crash 1929 levels. What we have to ask ourselves is whether it is going to get to year 2000 levels before it crashes.
Adrian Kelly
>Once the money stops flowing, then the crash will occur. Or there will be a black swan.
Joshua James
waiting to buy up real estate when she goes pop. boomers BTFO
Grayson Kelly
>not realizing why voting for hitler spiked after NDSAP was in power
Angel Ross
Presidents have much much better security than they did back in JFK's day, I don't think a possible shooter would have a chance I'm glad he's doing this
Mason Adams
If I knew the bubble I wouldn't be posting on Sup Forums, I'd be turning my 6 figure starting salary into 8.
Stock buybacks don't inflate stock prices. They literally increase the companies net worth. Assets equals liabilities plus shareholders networth. Run that thought experiment with increasing share buybacks and you'll understand.
Algo trading accounts for a majority of all daily traded volume. Read the book flash boys if you want to know more. Look up VWAP trading like I said before and you'll understand why algo trading isn't bad but actually good.
Noah Martin
>but are student loans being leveraged and securitized like mortgages in 2008? Yes.
"Student Loan Asset-Backed Securities, or SLABS, are a way for investors to start putting their money into the student debt marketplace."
My whole argument is the US Dollars stay stable due to an oil backing ensuring demand.
Liam Thomas
>art is a bubble >fucking art nigger what?
Jeremiah Peterson
that's how you get JFK'd
Leo Cruz
Could you elaborate on this? If a company is actually profiting and growing, doesn't that mean it's just a high growth sector of the economy and the trading is justified? I'm new to trying to figure out the economy, but I have a feeling tech is where a bubble would happen. The companies are very highly valued, but they won't crash if they keep making a profit. The problem with the Dot Com burst was that nobody was actually making money and thus the valuation was meaningless.
Jeremiah Jackson
What stocks should I buy when they crash?
Juan Green
>
that looks like a relevant graph for sure
Jason Stewart
Well that’s the thing, it’s hard to know before it happens. After it happens it will seem obvious in hindsight.
Colton Reed
I think it's interesting and on to something
Whether or not it's right we will see
Camden Stewart
jews start to panic the second you aren't praising them, he has to keep the game going if he wants to get anything done.
JFK's mistake was talking too much about his plans.
Nolan Gomez
Obama had 100x assasination threats than Bush. I would have bet thousands he would not have survived 8 years. I was amazed. Hope someone writes that book if any of it is known.
