Nate Silver on Alabama Senate race

He says our goy Roy Moore has a 70 percent chance of winning

fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls/

Other urls found in this thread:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/
politico.com/story/2016/11/nate-silver-huffington-post-polls-twitter-230815
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

JUST

Last ditch effort to stop him? Or does he think hes still relevant?

Didn’t he say that Hillary also had a 70% chance of winning. I kind of hope Moore loses just to prove that 538 is a joke.

Nate Aluminum

I hope Moore wins. We need people to understand that fucking teens isn't a bad thing. That you can still be a good person if you fuck some 14 year old slut.

Considering Nate's record, pack it up boys, we lost.

Me and the girlfriend just got back for voting for Moore.

I was 410 and she was 411. Hell, that little voting location only had 420 people show up to vote for Obama in 2012, and it is a black majority zone.

But there is a HUGE get out and vote effort to renew the local taxes for the schools. So that might have something to do with it.

Last couple of days, we've had a real civil rights legend campaigning AGAINST Doug Jones, cause ole Dougy is a KKKlansman, received a LOT of open KKKlansmen money, and has defended over 150 known KKKlansmen in court against various Klan activity.

Strange times when Democrats are campaigning against their own and Republicans are campaigning against their own.

Yeah, and 30% for Trump was far more generous for Trump than any other polling aggregator. I don't get the hate for Silver when he at least tries to make the actual polling data as accurate as possible regardless of his opinions.

Desperate for credibility.

Seems pretty obv that Moore has a lead if it the polls are this close.
Skewed because dont want to publicly associate with a potential diddler even they agree with his policy.

Because he does the whole “Trump is a sexist racist thing”. Look at his comments about peurto rico mayor saying Trump only attacks latino women like flake, corker, mccain, and jeb dont exist. He is biased but less biased than most.

Yeah but regardless of your opinion on Trump that doesn't impact how he aggregates polling data, his political opinions are mostly separate from how he presents numbers which is better than most.

begrudgingly operating within something resembling reality after being fundamentally and completely wrong at every juncture of the race isn't something to be proud of

had no idea about that klan angle. you think blacks would turn out for moore?

You think his political bias does not go into his polling work for politics?

He didn't. He was juking the numbers too. Badly. Towards the end, he seemed to resist the last push to just declare Hillarys victory 2 weeks early. During election day he was even mocking the Trump 2%ers analysis. It's weird. He absolutely betrayed his principles. But he didn't seem happy about it.

...

>Moore has a 70% chance of winning
Awes...
>Nate Styrofoam
SHIT!

Dont worry Bill Kristol predicted a Jones victory. Moore might as well prep his victory speech.

Nate Nickel may be trying to salvage his polls just long enough to get some clout before throwing it all down the drain in the 2020 election.

>tfw want to miss work to see this election

Is it worth it?

The four horsemen of polling Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Harry Enten and Sean Trende have all avoided making any firm proclamations regarding Alabama other than it is very hard to model.

They all basically agree that if there is record turnout (which is highly likely) then Jones will probably win.

If turnout is 2017 levels or lower, highly unlikely due to Trump being President and this race becoming nationalized, Moore should prevail.

The real question is did the allegations against Moore and Republicans abandoning him sway enough women to stay at home or switch that otherwise would have voted for him?

That's all Democrats need to do to win today, peel away enough support. That's exactly how Trump got the White House.

the real action doesn't start for hours. go earn them bux.

If west coast no. You’ll be out of work in time for the pre-game with first results showing up around 7pm

Central timezone tilll 10pm

Technically Nate does know what he is doing.
His problem is that he lets drugs, drinking, politics, and gambling get in the way of true good judgment.

damnit I had money on moore. not really but I'm that mad

I am on west coast and drinking for it then trolling reddit. Gonna throw in Star wars spoilers as well.

We mock him but Silver was one of the very few people who said weeks prior the election that Trump's chances were much, much better than people thought they were.

He was chastised unmercifully by inflamed liberals for it too. YOU'RE NOT HELPING, THAT'S NOT WHAT OTHERS ARE SAYING, YOU MUST SUPPORT TRUMP YOU BIGOT

>Nate Unobtainium
FAKE NEWS

(((Nate Silver))) shilling for Roy Moore makes me root for Jones

>Last couple of days, we've had a real civil rights legend campaigning AGAINST Doug Jones, cause ole Dougy is a KKKlansman, received a LOT of open KKKlansmen money, and has defended over 150 known KKKlansmen in court against various Klan activity.
Finally the fucking blacks are evolving.

Maybe they think if they say the republicans will win they will lose. Like a reverse election night. They are trying to harness meme magic.

he is just going with the obvious winning instead of virtue signaling. He bombed hard last year and needs to get the guise of people thinking he is accurate again so he can milk 2020.

Wait... do you think he personally is involved in polling people?

He bias influences how he interprets the data and presents it though.

If Nate Shit thinks he will win, we are done

Like he said
I have worked in polling. Its literally more art than science. You maybe get at best 3% response rate and extrapolate everything else. Factor in that MSM calls Trump supporters racist nazis he should have been more suspicious of the data.

And to add he was way off in the republican primaries. Not even close.

>2%

What a joke. I knew Trump would win like a month into it.

How is this guy still relevant after all his monumental failures? Is it because he's a dirty kike?

Maybe he’s teasing a redemption arc

Nowhere in that article does the number 70% show up. He concludes it by saying Moore has a slight advantage on the assumption of "shy voters" because the data has historically been more purple than the turnout.

Fuck. considering how awful his predictions have been, that's not good.

Sup Forums is jealous of sharia law

He’s standing by his 30% chance for Jones to win and not correcting people

i'm thinking the same thing. either that or "hey he's got this in the bag. no reason for you moore people to get out there if it's inconvenient to you."

>baseball team A sells out all their games
>baseball team B can't sell out even on weekends
it's only as hard as you make it

Trump is a racist and a sexist. How the fuck can you not see that at this point? Hell, you can like him for it but at least have the honesty and integrity to admit what he is.

Dougie Jones looks like he's wearing and Edgar Suit .. is he real? lol.. all I can think about when I see him is Errol Childress and wonder

Today is my birthday and I would like Roy Moore to win for my present

>this is what conservaphiles actually believe

Where's your proof, fag?

To be fair, Nate Aluminum was one of the only people defending the idea that Trump had a chance, so he may have been pretty wrong on his 30%, but he was at least the closest of the retards in the special olympics.

If I recall, he even yelled at Buzzfeed for sucking too much hilldawg dick.

>he hurts my fee fees so he is racist

>one of the only people defending the idea that Trump had a chance

>if there is record turnout then Jones will probably win
Literally what do they mean by this?
People will turn out for lots of reasons. One of them is to say "fuck you" to the media

This. 538 scared the hell out of me because of the high odds on trump

hope you had other things to make your birthday better

I read this whole post in Harry Enten's voice.

Uh oh.

Fag

>Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
>Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
>Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
>Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
>Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
>Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
>Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
>Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
>Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!
Why can't Dems win even after the (((MSM))) labels the GOP candidate a pedo?! WHY CAN"T DEMS WIN!!!!!!

That has to be the saddest horse to ever live

Maybe you'll even get laid one day!

It's because all them German motherfuckers calling soft drinks "pop."

Sure, he engaged in the MSM dick-sucking contest, but he did release articles at least acknowledging Trump had a chance. Specifically this: fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/

And this Twitter feud with huffpost on their HILLDAWG AT 98%: politico.com/story/2016/11/nate-silver-huffington-post-polls-twitter-230815

It's so late, I'm wondering if it would just anger them. Like the 1 month to go and Moore being slammed with claims that he groped a 14 year old.

fox reporter just said he's seeing strong turnout from the african american community. is there any reason they would be turning out for jones? how widely known is that kkk stuff?

fuk

How do you think most of the passengers on the Lolita Express voted? I'll give you a hint: Not Republican.

Die.

Nate shills, just fucking kys. When you're caught 'adjusting' polls from liberal colleges 10+points in Hillary's favor, there's nothing left to say.

yes, once his quasi-celebrity status as some bulletproof "prognosticator" started circling the drain, he was finally able to bring himself to acknowledge what any halfwit with basic insight could have seen after the first few debates
how does some loser in canada see it from a mile away but a guy with every resource at his disposal is wrong every step of the way?

He's actually admitted to it dude.

I do give him credit for coming clean.

Don't know. Might be a false flag to get the local blacks mad and show up to vote against Moore.

Blacks have an amazing ability to vote for known Klansmen, year after year after year.

Goddamn has he always looked this shitty or has it been a regular decline since how badly he called the 2016 election

This is true. Sup Forums would love a country ruled by its stalwart religious figures, fighting the degeneracy of the left.

Wasn't it a more normal thing back then?

Proof about the calls? I don't think I have any left on the voice mail.

HOLY SHIT CNN EXIT POLLS
>Jones 23%
>Moore 26%
>Jeb! 51%

He refused to rent to black people and was fined over it. Go be a retarded child somewhere else.

>blacks
>going out to vote
does not compute

No idea man. It's not like I throw a block party and ask all my neighbors, "Hey, what you know about the Klan and the current crop of Democrat politicians?"

All Alabama should still get out and vote, in case of astroturf campaign.

Strange times when kiddie fuckers are identifiable with just a few numbers and letters

he's trying to use his curse against us. it will backfire, he doesn't understand how curses work

>Moore loses just to prove that 538 is a joke.
No, we don't want to miss the butthurt from the left that would otherwise transpire. Also, no proof is needed.

Reported heritage in the US is a meme we wuz irish germans. The most common heritage has always been British isles

If only

seems pretty reasonable. A bit under the betting markets but I think given that it's a deep red state that makes sense.

the point is how every normalfag thinks these are currently the worst possible "things" in the world. being complicit in furthering this faggot narrative makes one a faggot as well

Kek

Problem is, he's always wrong.

HOW TO WIN ALABAMA
BE (R)
SCREAM "LIBRUL BABY KILLERS" 24/7
CONGRATS YOU ARE NOW A SENATOR.

I dunno, least that one didn't have to deal with rabid leftists.

Blacks tend to tear up places that are rented to them. That's not racism so much as it's just realistic good business. If the gov't moved Section 8 blacks in next to me I'd put my house on the market, quick.

I'm getting off at 9pm ET, and I really wanted to stay home. But thankfully Alabama is in the central time zone.

Should we be worried then?

If Moore wins, it's because people understand that it's perfectly ok to fuck hot 14 year old girls.

Faggots get married, which obviously GOD HATES, yet old dudes can't get super high quality 14 year old pussy. What's with that?

Slow and Steady!

Do not mock the Plastic Prophet!