Quick Rundown >NAFTA negotiations start >Trudeau sends Christina Freeland, a SJW journalist, while Trump sends a 70 year old billionaire investment banker Wilbur Ross to represent them >Leaf oil trades at a discount to WTI, usually around $10 because it costs more to transport and is of a lower quality >Leaf oil currently is essentially tarrif-free when imported to the USA >Since NAFTA negotiations started, the WCS/WTI differential has drastically widened, to nearly $30 from $10 (meaning one leaf barrel is worth less than $30 while one WTI is $56) as Trudeau has demanded ridiculous SJW policies to be introduced into NAFTA, such as feminism (he wants NAFTA to be the first feminist trade agreement), Indian rights, LGBTQ2S+, Trans rights and other SJW policies >This is almost a direct correlation to the probability of NAFTA being killed by Trump as US refiners demand bigger discounts to account for the risk of NAFTA being killed and a tarrif being introduced suddenly, and since oil takes weeks if not months to be delivered to US refiners via pipeline/train, refiners could have bought WCS futures at say $45 and when taking delivery have to pay a 50% tarrif, wiping out any profit and potentially losing fucktons of money when they refine/"crack" the crude into various refined products such as naptha, gasoline, kerosene/jet fuel etc that are more valuable when sold separately (this is known as the "crack spread" and is the refiners margin) >The WCS-WTI differential is now so large that the probability of NAFTA being killed is priced in 100%
This will completely fuck the leaf economy and cause a severe recession as the USA is the only customer of leaf oil since they are literally too stupid (muh indians, muh environment) to build any pipelines to sea so they can sell their product to Europe or Asia.
>Oilonomics 101 Leaf oil is a heavy oil, meaning the ratio of longer hydrocarbons to shorter hydrocarbons is bigger than say a light oil. This means it is harder for an oil refiner to "crack" (break down the hydrocarbons into shorter ones). This is important because shorter/lighter hydrocarbons are more valuable to a refiner since they are used to make naptha, gasoline, jet fuel, which are more valuable than diesel and fuel oil (used for ships), and heavier crudes also produce more coke and other virtually worthless sludge.
WTI has an API gravity of 39.6 while WCS has an API gravity of 20.5.
Charles Taylor
fuck. we keep being JUSTed
John Garcia
>Freeland demands gender rights >August 14
WTI-WCS spread immediately widens 50%
Jace Flores
>look, I know we lost trillions of dollars long-term >BUT WE GOT WOMEN AND INUITS RECOGNIZED USING OUR NEGOTIATION LEVERAGE, ISN'T THAT GRAND? =)
Kayden Jenkins
It's all part of (((their))) plan
Andrew Sullivan
We will be here to rescue leafs once they fall completely
Hudson Wright
the levels of JUST we're reaching here shouldn't even be possible
Jaxson Parker
The US has tons of oil fields that are largely untapped. Many still have the equipment there, just need to be turned back up. Canada is just our main supplier because as of right now it is cheaper, honestly turning our pumps back on would create a shit ton of jobs and revenue while fucking over canada.
Jose Reed
This is what trump is doing. Canada supplies the US 3-3.3M bpd, however US production is ramping up at a 50k bpd/week clip, or about 2.5M bpd/year. If demand held still, the US wouldn't need to buy any Canadian oil, which is pure shit since it produces mainly heavy distillates.
Luis Rodriguez
Yesterday >Canada to bring feminism to NAFTA talks in seeking new chapter on gender
>JOANNA SMITH, THE CANADIAN PRESS >12.13.2017
Today >WTI-WCS differential drops off the face of the earth
William Bell
I am not clear how is Canada not in a depression yet. They have silly high consumer debt, they export raw materials that are in a bear market, and the banks have a shit load of fraud and uninsured mortgages to foreigners. Just because they claim it's 25% down mortgage, it means nothing with their property bubble. They just keep inflating this bubble. It's Iceland part #2 with stupid leafs who are unable to understand its them and not the banks who blew it up. I am amazed by the level of delusion these people have. It wouldn't surprise me if the government cooks their statistics.
Michael Gray
>Used to work at a Canadian financial firm. Canadians are seriously shady as fuck. I even trust Brits above them.
Hunter Thompson
>It wouldn't surprise me if the government cooks their statistics.
They've been cooking every economic print and hiding racial statistics ever since Trudeau came to power
t. StatsCan chief statistician quit in 'last desperate bid' to protect agency's autonomy
Ethan Hughes
I know they are shady, but how the fuck do they not run out of money? Their main industries are raw materials, really, and they never recovered. Yet, they seem to be at full employment. What the fuck do these people do. I know they are very shady, but the actual cash shortages must be tremendous. They probably fill the hole with illegal transit to the US or something. There is no way they can stay afloat in legit anything.
David Jackson
>Canadians are seriously shady as fuck.
You better believe I am. I will fuck you over any chance I get while fucking niggers.
fuck you faggots hahaha
Julian Miller
They have the same strength as Russia, and Russia is in a capital preservation mode, and they expand and credit just explodes. Who the fuck buys their worthless dollar?
Brayden Ward
>Summary
CMHC = Fannie/Freddie Mac
Canadian housing has nearly tripled in 10 years. A single detached house has gone from about $200K CAD to over $800K CAD.
CMHC has $20B in assets and $946B in liabilities >50:1 leverage
Banks have lent out a trillion dollars in mortgages for hyperinflated crackshacks while removing any risk of default for them by offloading them to the CMHC (mortgage insurer). At one point, the CMHC allowed 40 year mortgages (in 2008 60% of all new mortgages were 40 year terms), with 0% down (cashback mortgages were a thing with 7-10% cashback), and no maximum loan value. In 2008, over 90% of mortgages were insured by the CMHC (read:
>the entire Canadian housing market is subprime
CDIC = FDIC
Insures up to $100K.
CDIC has $3.4B in assets CDIC has $679B in liabilities >200:1 leverage
Both CMHC and CDIC are backstopped by the government.
A 20+% correction would wipe out the CMHC and at least one major Canadian bank as they have uninsured mortgages (already happening with Home Capital, the Canadian CountryWide). A bank being wiped out would wipe out the CDIC.
The CDIC and CMHC being wiped out would require the Canadian government to issue hundreds of billions of loonies in new debt, sending the loonie to sub-50 cents, possibly to 20-30 cents or even hyperinflating.
>The Day of the Rake is nigh
Aaron Cox
I'd take look at Bay Street and their accountants. There are a lot of ways to move money around and inflate valuations on assets.
I've been exploring ways of shorting the Canadian housing market -- I suspect a lot of their banks are a house of cards and that the inevitable collapse will be enormous.
Connor Campbell
Except nobody does business with you. Every Canadian company is a pos with serious issues. You have to be insane to have a dollar in Canada.
Adrian Perry
>What's happening now? The CMHC has been reigned in to a max loan value of $1M, max amortizations of 25 years (from a high of 40), 5% downpayment on the first $500K, 10% on the next $500K (7.5% on $1M).
People have been using "alternative lenders" who loan $2-3M on self-declared income or with fake documents. Now these lenders are blowing up and not making new mortgages, hence prices have stagnated or dropped (as in Van, already down 15% this year).
Once a massive across the board drop occurs, lots of people who are leveraged to the tits with negative/0/5% downpayment 30/35/40 year mortgages will be underwater (they will owe more than they can sell their house for).
>Canadian mortgages are all Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) that reset every 5 years
When renewal comes up, which is soon for a lot of 2010-2012 mortgages on 40 year terms with negative/0/5% downpayments, they will be forced to come up with hundreds of thousands of cash to bring their mortgage Loan-to-Value back down to 80-95%. 99% of people won't be able to come up with the money, so the bank will write off the mortgage with the CMHC mortgage insurer, who will pay the bank the loan back then take possession of the house and do a fire sale, and then go after the homecuck for the balance which will be hundreds of thousands for life. Bankruptcy can't discharge CMHC debt since it is Crown debt.
In fact, banks can call in mortgages at any time for any reason (lol). So if they see prices dropping, they will pre-emptively call in mortgages and write them off to stay afloat. Once this occurs, it's a race to the bottom as banks are forced to call in more and more mortgages to stay afloat (in order to maintain their Tier 1 capital ratios with marked market values of the houses on their books)
>A significant price drop will put millions of homecucks underwater >Banks call in mortgages >Homecucks can't come up with margin
Ayden Brooks
They probably sell defaulted shit to each other to keep valuation. They will have cashflow problems soon. I'm short them too, but it's unreal how they are able to convince people that 20-1 leverage for them is good.
Jackson Gomez
Speak for yourself, every one of those smuggy america-bashing faggot fucks can burn. At least they'd still be not-America because that's all that matters right? :^)
Gavin Bennett
(from May, but HCG was bailed out by Warren Buffet after Trudeau and Bill Mourneau personally begged buffet at Bill Gates mansion to save the Canadian. He's since bailed on his "investment" and the contagion of NINJA mortgages is spreading).
>NINJA lenders Home Capital Group, the "CountryWide" of Canada that does jumbo ($2-3M) NINJA (No Income No Job or Assets) and liar loans (self-declared income), has a $20B mortgage book.
In 2015, they were forced to cut ties with nearly 50 brokers due to massive fraud (homecucks using forged documents or lying about their income). They estimated $2B in mortgages on their books are fraudulent. They don't know which ones. In fact, the number is likely to be far higher. The Ontario securities regulator recently accused the former CEO/CFO of material fraud by lying to the public (the # of fraudulent mortgages is in fact far higher).
As a result, people have been withdrawing nearly all their savings from Home Capital's High Interest Savings accounts. These are term deposits and must be paid out immediately; the run on Home Capital has resulted in their HISA account going from $2B to under $400M in just under a week. As a result, they obtained a $2B credit line from a government pension fund at 22.5% interest and drew down $1B today to stay afloat.
They are essentially bankrupt. They cannot borrow at 22.5% and loan at 3%. Their stock dropped 65% on Wednesday last week and over 30% today. The Canadian bank regulator (OFSI) is "staging" them (seeing how bad their books are). It's rumoured they are terminal, and the OFSI is forcing them to liquidate. This will result in hundreds of thousands of million+ cuckshacks flooding the market, crashing prices.
Jackson Williams
>Canadians are seriously shady as fuck. I even trust Brits above them. Must be bad, then.
Eli Robinson
CMHC is not GSE's. It's their subprime lenders. It's basically FDIC like thing with the government ends up devaluing the dollar to make good on the promises or outright goes bad on the promise, who knows.
They have a problem with non-insured mortgages. They gave them out to anyone with the pulse if you put 20% or 25% down, but I'm not even sure people did that. It's hard to tell. CMHC is for locals, who can't walk away from the loans. They have more of a solvency of consumer problem than we had. We had strategic defaults. They have really insolvent locals and insane gambling Chinese with fake prices for their homes. At some point the payments just stop. I don't think valuation of those homes will not drop. The banks will stop getting payments, and short fall of income ensues. They have no regulatory authorities to begin with.
Ayden Jenkins
>feminist trade agreement What does it mean?
Cameron Sanders
Seriously, you fucks usually at least try to stab us in the front. Or owe up to it after the fact. Leafs will stab you in the back and then still hide behind their bullshit 'golly, we're so friendly, sorry about that eh?' veneer.
Tyler Green
Aww...
Matthew Baker
CMHC is indeed a GSE/Crown corporation. They have the same exact business models. They are backstopped by the Canadian tax-payer. They have $16B in equity (they paid a $4B dividend recently) yet nearly $1000B in contingent liabilities on their books. See Even the BiS and the OECD has warned that Canada is at extreme risk of a financial melt down.
Canadians have $2.1T in consumer debt, including $1.3T in mortgage debt.
Eli Barnes
Harper did this in 2008. He took $114B in worthless loans from the banks and allowed them not to mark their books (they were all bankrupt).
Our primeminster met with Trudeau at Apac or what ever that Asian summit was a few weeks ago.
She was forced to tell the NZ media what went on in the meeting. He told her he wasn't at APAC for trade but he was there for "Feminism" and the "progressive agenda"
As cucked as our journalists are. Even they were laughing at him and calling him a "Spoilt boy who has become leader of a powerful nation"
To think he goes to a meeting to do with trade for his nation, and he tries to hijack and turn it into an event to shame men into giving women their jobs.
Eli Price
>as Trudeau has demanded ridiculous SJW policies to be introduced into NAFTA, such as feminism (he wants NAFTA to be the first feminist trade agreement), Indian rights, LGBTQ2S+, Trans rights and other SJW policies
On one hand I want to say you're bullshitting but on the other hand this is Trudeau.
Got a link to that?
Jack Murphy
It means you get fucked and like it.
Julian Myers
Canadians are pussies anyway..
Blake Harris
Good. I hope America screws Canada into the fucking wall. Fuck Canada.
Juan Sanchez
>On one hand I want to say you're bullshitting but on the other hand this is Trudeau.
Its not bullshit.
Read about his antics at the APAC summit. He is quickly becoming the laughing stock of world politics.
Carson Ross
Don't be abusive, Dad.
Jason Lee
scroll up you lazy leaf
>OTTAWA — The Trudeau government knows other countries are raising their eyebrows at the thought of feminist trade deals, but the Liberals are convinced the idea will one day be as obvious as labour and environmental standards are today.
>That is one of the messages Canadian negotiators have been using to try to convince the United States and Mexico to include a gender chapter in the new North American Free Trade Agreement, newly released briefing materials show.
but when will it actually all come tumbling down? when?
David Allen
You say this like it is a bad thing. It needs to fail to bitch slap Trudeau back to reality.
Thomas Mitchell
Good I love it when my faggots countrymen suffer
Asher Anderson
...
Nicholas Walker
So at the end of the day two Jews went to talk about money
Noah Lopez
Isn’t coke used to add carbon to iron in steel? Not that useless
Grayson Sullivan
>According to Lee, there may soon come a time when Canada’s gold reserves are entirely a thing of the past. There are better assets to focus on, he argued, calling the government’s decision to dump gold “wise and astute.”
So, did they spend all the money from the gold to save some banks and shit instead of "better assets".
Brody Evans
I guess I should be concerned, but fuck, our government is a bunch of insane, incompetent virtue signalers. Over the past few years, shit has really gone off the deep end here.
Carson Hernandez
The sad part is that our faggot government and population knows this aswell Never America cant allow it but the faggot liberals will suffer tho they will probably blame Trump for the collapse of NAFTA and the failure of everything
Benjamin Walker
economic downturn while feminist lgbtwrsbraaap+ social justice warrior retards are in charge is nothing but a good thing
holy fuck how is trudeau even able to fuck canada this much in the first place. It's like the kikes just told him to go ham on the economy
I need to move somewhere sane, I wish it were possible to emigrate back to europe tbqh
Elijah Price
>Berlin police say thieves broke into the German capital's Bode Museum and made off with a massive 100-kilogram gold coin issued by the Royal Canadian Mint that's worth millions.
>Dubbed the "Big Maple Leaf" and measuring three-centimetres thick with a diameter of 53 centimetres, the coin has a portrait of the Queen on one side and maple leaves on the other.
>It has a face value of $1 million, but by weight alone it would be worth approximately $4 million US at market prices.
t. literally the last gold canada had was stolen in Berlin
Sebastian Brooks
it's finally happening
Christopher Turner
you Sup Forumsacks are scaring me.
Nathan Hernandez
The average leaf normalfaggot is just as delusional as Trudeau.
Anthony Butler
>first feminist trade agreement
how does this work?
Bentley Jones
You should be scared of the hundreds of ISIS fighters Trudeau has let back into Canada that are literally planning terror attacks and getting money from Trudeau to do it
Jacob Bennett
throw in as many nonsensical buzzwords you can to feel good while actually accomplishing nothing tangible for our country.
Leo Peterson
Bump Interesting thread, can't wait to see leafs get absolutely btfo
Joshua Reed
DEATH TO THE LEAFY JEW > ALLAHHHHH CRACKBARRR
Luke Gonzalez
I hope Trump kills NAFTA in 1 year so we can get a conservative majority gov and liberals at 10% of the vote.
Tyler Scott
>666
Carson Edwards
>666 leafs confirmed to get absolutely btfo
Juan Watson
>having people who know what they are doing works out Who knew? >B-but billionaires
Alexander Nguyen
Hum. Should I buy a gun?
Anthony Gutierrez
JUST a friendly reminder that Syrian refugee families get the equivalent of $893,626.31/year in gibs thanks to Cuckdeau. They also get free Dental (Canadians do not get this), Vision and Platinum health care with everything covered, no fees and immediate access to a family doctor— the doctor can even meet them at the airport! (Canadians have to wait 5 years to find a family doctor). They also get free Rx, Daycare, University tuition, and free food/clothes/job training $$ from government funded settlement organizations (just more free gibs) but I'll exclude it from the Gibs Matematics model for now. Many also work on the side in kebab shops.
Model Input: Mohammed, 4 Aishas, 20 Mohammeds (25 members)
>Refugee Gibs Matematics
Gib Housing: $10,000/month (for accommodation in Toronto to house 25 family members) Gib Government Refugee Money: $700 per adult/month Gib Canada Child Benefit: $533.33/month/kebab Gib Ontario Child Benefit: $113/month/kebab Gib GST/HST Tax Refund: $875/quarter/family Gib Ontario Sales Tax Credit: $542.66/month/family Gib Free Dental Platinum Plan: $2000/kebab/year Gib Free Platinum Health Care: $2000/kebab/year Gib Free Platinum Vision Care: $1000/kebab/year
>$207,131.84/year cash + $120,000 housing benefit + $75,000 in luxury health care >$402,131.84 >Assuming a tax rate of 55%, 215142/(1-0.55)=893626.31
That’s a pre-tax equivalent of $893,626.31.
They also get a non-repayable, tax-free one-time start-up allowance of $65K, and can bring up to $62.5K cash without it affecting their gibs.
David Smith
Btw another funny thing about leaf oil econometrics is that all the refineries for leaf petroleum are in the US because of muh environment and muh Indians and shit so America litteraly sells refined leaf oil back to leafland and if you look at the map of the prevailing winds and the location of the refineries all the pollution still blows back to leafland anyway
Zachary Wilson
...
Ayden Gray
Cat Feed?
Luis Martin
>canada >gun
Easton Evans
STOP BEING ISLAMOPHOBIC BY DEMANDING INSURANCE AGAINST OUR TRADE POLICIES!! screamed justin to nobody in particular he then went back to buying shariah compliant socks online
Josiah Morgan
Chrystia Freeland is the SJW negotiator you're talking about? She has a bachelor's in Russian History from Harvard, a master's in Slavonic Studies as a Rhodes scholar at Oxford, has written several books on economic issues, and speaks seven languages. She's the minister of foreign affairs and before that was the minister of international trade.
That's what you think of when you say SJW?
Isaac Ortiz
When I was on the dole I got about 12000 a year.
Lucas Walker
interesting thread op
Jason Perez
I care more about our economy collapsing than some over inflated fake news.
>6. So, now about those returnees: the Canadian government has been very sloppy with how it talks about returnees. Both CSIS and RCMP, it seems, calculate these numbers differently.
>7. It's also the case that the Canadian government counts as returnees those who retuned to Canada and then LEFT AGAIN for Syria...and DIED there. So, we have someone like Ahmad Waseem from Windsor, who I assume is counted both as a returnee and as a FF even though he's dead.
>8. So, how many LEGIT returnees are there in Canada at the moment? I would say no more than 10 at the MOST. Some have been charged already. Others willing continue to be monitored until they are deemed to not pose a threat.
id rather talk about Trudeau tanking the economy
Xavier Rogers
> editor of the globe and mail and reporter for the Washington post You have no idea what the globe and mail is do you?
Luis Barnes
in the positive side canada is so economically entangled with the us that if they collapse they may cause a recesion in burguerland
>you will suffer too spic last time in 2008 mexico was largely unaffected because most of our exports are a must and i dont care really
Jason Bailey
citations for those numbers?
Chase Davis
Actually you can own ARs in Canada. Your thinking of England or Australia
Andrew Brown
I honestly cannot fathom how this faggot keeps making things worse for you guys. Right wing reactionary leaf group when?
Robert Nguyen
>Speaks 7 languages No she can't, she speaks English and that's it. >Slavonic Studies >Russian Studies muh economics >Written several books on economics Literally wrote a 19 page e-book on >muh ukraine
Pic related
She also was so inept Trump cancelled TPP immediately
Cooper Brown
>>and not the banks who blew it up
lol collateralized debt obligations (in this case, mortgage-backed securities) and the repeal of glass-steagall is why 2008 occurred...the subprime borrowers just cataylzed the collapse
Kevin Phillips
>Right wing reactionary leaf group when?
they're too shitty, cringy, and reactionary. They are basically self imploding and self sabotaging. So what can you do.
Dominic Hall
And she is a huge SJW virtue signalling cunt
>pic related
Nicholas Morales
30yr mortgage, ~$170,000 left on it, house currently valued between $450k and $650k
how fuckt?
Connor Parker
good bye world kek confirms day of the rope
Caleb Sullivan
We aren't in a depression because half the country will happily suck trudeaus dick and how could he lead us into a depression? its literally delusion, head in sand bullshit.
Kayden Davis
proof?
Jose Richardson
>As cucked as our journalists are. Even they were laughing at him and calling him a "Spoilt boy who has become leader of a powerful nation" HOw the FUCK did he manage to become a President again?
Ayden White
>Written books on economics >Degrees are completely unrelated to economics.
Sorry, no. If I were to write a book on Elec. Engineering, I'd damn well expect people to pay attention to it because all of my advanced degrees are in Elec. and Computer Engineering. However, if I were to write a book on say the anthropological trends of some 5,000 year old civilization, I'd expect a really high level of skepticism about it because it would fall way outside the vast base of my general knowledge. Any idiot can write a book, the relevant question is always "is the book competent on the subject matter?"
Thomas Green
A proof is a proof is a proof, and when you have a good proof, you have proof
Michael Lee
sounds like the new FCC rules
David Martinez
basically the opposite and precursor to Trump. Let's elect this guy cause lol popularity contest!
Xavier Mitchell
Sad that CBTS is gone meme flaggot? Don't worry, Mueller is /ourguy/
Nathaniel Hughes
Bump
Josiah Moore
...
Jayden Smith
How do I profit off this?
Xavier Howard
>meme flaggot
t. the master race
Jacob White
>Trudeau has demanded ridiculous SJW policies to be introduced into NAFTA, such as feminism (he wants NAFTA to be the first feminist trade agreement), Indian rights, LGBTQ2S+, Trans rights and other SJW policies What does this have to do with anything?
Ian Morris
The only bad part of this will be America having to deport more illegals who stop deciding running the Canadian border is a good idea, then hide in the US instead.
