History of the future thread.
Given what we have seen during our lifetime, what do you expect will happen in the next 20 to 40 years? Geopolitically, and such.
Is it possible to predict this century's history or does history never repeat itself?
If you were to think of the next 100 years as a professional historian would about the last 100 years, what would you look for or at?
bump
South Africa and Russia don't belong in that group
In the next 100 years I'd expect increasing automation, globalization, and immigration to lead to greater political division and extremism, but not enough to lead to revolution or civil war. Eventually UBI or something similar will be implemented as automation grows, and at that point the world will pretty much settle into a very stable state, with only certain fanatical groups like ISIS causing trouble abroad. American imperialism will increase tenfold as boots on the ground are no longer required to invade and police nations, simply place drones on the ground, sea, and air and let the enemy waste their men trying to destroy them.
don't want to turn this into a prepper thread, but which country would you move to if you want your grandchildren to live comfortable and/or successful lives?
Do you think Asia will indeed become richer than the US? Or do you expect a war in SEAsia?
what is UBI?
Universal Basic Income.
North Korea will fall somewhere in my lifetime I think, an country-wide concentration camp can only be sustained for so long
Russia will become a player, and fuck themselves up, like they did over and over and over again
China might actually become something of a real fucking world player for once. It looks like Xi is really poised to overtake the US, now that the US is falling
The rest of BRICS gets way too much credit
But honestly, it's impossible to predict the future
Maybe a great plague will ravage the world and the least ruined nations can overtake the current players
I'll stay in Europe
Europe is sitting on so much wealth and progress
As long as they don't fuck themselves up as terribly as the US is doing right now, and pull their head out of their asses for once there is still a lot of potential in Europe
Paradoxically, BREXIT was probably something good for the EU, as for once the members get united against something and work together to show the UK they mean business, instead of endless bureaucracy
>Do you think Asia will indeed become richer than the US?
Lol nope. The US will become the wealthiest country with time and north America the wealthiest continent. Even Mexico has a brighter future than Asia
How does the US fuck itself right now?
>Europe is sitting on so much wealth and progress
I'm European; Most Europeans I know either have already left to SEA or are thinking about leaving. What progress are you talking about? We do not even produce our own computers. What we really resemble is an open air museum;
Civilisation will collapse under the weight of climate change, overpopulation and depletion of resources. Mass die off will ensue. Temperature will warm well in excess of 2 degrees (catastrophic). This is guaranteed, so don't have children unless you want to watch them die.
>Paradoxically, BREXIT was probably something good for the EU,
Which is why our politicians are pushing to undo it right now (e.g. Macron, Juncker)
Resource depletion, near-total desertification of everything between the tropics and floods everywhere else, the borders of the first world resembling an abbatoir as the third world flings itself at their gates, mass genocide as a normal state of affairs, famines, plagues, and eventially the disintegration of civilization as humanity sinks into a total and irreversible dark age. It's going to be a fun century.
Or I could move to the location which is best suited to survive said mass calamity.
I'm guessing that means moving away from the Middle East (and by extension Europe) asap towards a more difficult to read location with fertile land and/or resources. But which way should we emigrate and regroup?
On a less serious note: There are some preparing for the exact opposite of what you are referring to. An ice age...
>There are some preparing for the exact opposite of what you are referring to. An ice age...
Well global warming might paradoxically result in a cooling of temperature for some regions if the Gulf Stream gets fucked.
Are you preparing for this? Or will you just shoot a bullet in your head when the Dollar fails?
>Resource depletion,
Europe wont suffer this so long as they close their doors to shitskins and let the population naturally decline
Europe hasn't got any petroleum and doesn't have much gas either. What resources are you talking about? Norway?
ehh
>Or I could move to the location which is best suited to survive said mass calamity.
As the pressures of global warming mount and political systems collapse, I fully expect a WW3 nuclear apocalypse scenario. Best place to ride it out would be in the Southern Hemisphere... a comfy country with plenty of arable land and away from conflict hypothesis... I'm thinking Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, the Pacific Islands but not the most isolated ones.
Also the Northwest Territories in Canada, Iceland or Greenland could be pretty comfy, but stay clear of Alaska, since it has many military facilities that would make it a prime nuclear target.
Basically you need to look for places with:
>Low population density
>Good infraestructure
>Arable land / Self-sufficient in food
>No military / nuclear targets
so Argentina?
Yeah... or Australia, NZ, Northern Canada, Greenland, Iceland... that would be my goto list, yes.
People will still have personal tastes, likes and dislikes and they will still be upset to think that other people have different tastes
Overall Asia will have twice the wealth, and 10 times the population.
Countries seem to be lining up like this
There's probably some mistakes here, but I think a multi-polar world will look something like this
One thing i am certian o f is that all the lines on the maps will matter less and less in the coming decades, perhaps becoming irrellevant
lol joke post good one
21st century rise and fall of the super state, india will break up for the worse, europe (minus britian) will get together for the better, brazil will rise, russia will rise higher, china will rise the most, WW3 in the 2060's if it happens. the united states will survive but will never give up on trying to be the best even though everyone will leave it behind. global warming will be handled but environmental destruction will never end.
This. Perhaps not in the next 100 years but in a couple of centuries I expect a pretty big collapse.
With how advanced communication is though I'd expect some governments to survive in one way or the other though, but still. Will be fun
I can only imagine those zones would be flooding with people, and as soon as some form of government forms in them they'll start shooting immigrants because there's just not enough room
It's not a matter of centuries but decades. I would be surprised if shit has not hit the fan by 2030.
I wonder what would happen to Siberia in this scenario. Would it become habitable?
Perhaps, if we find no answer to soil erotion, sure. I just dont want to underestimate the lenghts governments would go to to alleviate/delay the problem even if its too late already
Will the Mediterranean get fucked soon?
Permafrost means that it's not fit for industrial agriculture. We are absolutely fucked, humanity missed its last chance in the 70s. We have pillaged and raped the earth and now we will suffer the consequences.
I don't know but I'd expect the Middle-east to go under more turmoil in the Arabian peninsula after KSA oil money declines, China ditching the CPC and just becoming some kind of oligarchy with Confucianism as a psuedo-state religion, possible civil war and unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang if the gov falters. Sub-saharan Africa will be dominated by Nigeria and Rwanda and develop but will be fucked by climate change, as will India. North Korea will either be the center of a bloody US-led war or become a glorified sweatshop for China after a coup. Taiwan will likely get annexed. Europe will probably be the same, US will lose some power but will probably remain some kind of primum inter pares due to military, economic and cultural power. Russia might descend further, might lose central Asian allies to China.
Are you saying that the Nordic countries and Germany will turn muslim?
What does the blue represent?
Are white/gray neutral or are they aligned with other white/gray states?
No, I used the same color by accident
Blue and Green in Europe would be 2 EU successor states
North America is touches both the pacific and the atlantic and is extremelly peaceful internally.It will become the most prosperous region of the planet by far.It is a matter of time.Any economist will tell you this.
Non-aligned
It's interesting how predictions in this thread are all over the place. Except perhaps about US decline.
Perhaps this says more about history-writing than we are willing to admit.
It's already that. It's already the wealthiest country in the world. Things can only go downhill from here
I mean we are all making huge assumptions because they're fun. This is hardly an academic discussion.
Even if the US were to break up, the North American continent would remain very wealthy.
>about US decline
There is no indications about this other than debt,but mind you China has a way worse debt problem than the US.The US has plenty of arable land,recieves a step supply of very high skill inmigrants and is rich on literally every resource on earth.The US is not declining.In fact it is just going to become bigger and stronger with time,but at its own pace.In 200 years the US might have more people than China even if it sounds stupid as of right now.The US GDP per capita is going to keep growing,its companies are going to be amongst the most dominants in the planet,the US army will remain the undisputed best army on the planet and its population will naturally grow due inmigration and stability.China might peak in this century but America hasn't even reach its full potential yet
>It's already that. It's already the wealthiest country in the world
The GDP per capita of the US is projected to increase a lot in the next decades.The US hasn't peak yet,the country has so much potential geographically that is astonishing.
GDP is always increasing. It's about how fast it will increase relative to other countries. And I don't think that you're right.
>GDP is always increasing
Nope.You are seriously understimating the US.North America is an economic jewel.
South east Asia is overpopulated,really vulnerable to any climatological changes,lacks most resources for industry and remains only competitive on huge subsudies or cheap labour and will enter into a demographic winter soon.
People are overstimating east asia due their sheer population but most countries there are not fit for industrialization and are only developing on cheap labor and massive subsudies that are not sustainable in the long run.
Why do you think China is inverting in Africa? They know their industrial progress is just not sustainable and once automation develops far enough all factories will just move back to North America and Europe
So you're saying they cannot into automation?
Japan is already working on replacing their declining population with robots. What's to say the chinks won't?
>stopping better genetic income
That won't happen, loser.
>So you're saying they cannot into automation?
They can but they just lack the sheer resources to be competitive about it. With automotation factories will be placed in cheap land where expansions can happen with ease,with a big pool of skill workers and close to the resources that it needs and as you might have guessed I have basically described the US.
I suppose. Iron can be imported from Africa but we'll see if the US can maintain this.
I think your seriously over estimating how much US, UK Canada, Australia and New Zealand and Ireland are close to each other. I'm from the UK and Australia and New Zealand never come up anytime in the news, I and most know next to nothing about them same with Canada. Ireland seems to be way closer to the EU though. Yeah common knowledge doesnt fully represent our alliances and formally we do have alliances but we have no concern about what happens our politicians arent tied to them countries at all other than maybe Ireland but even thats only because of NI. Also how the fuck is Germany not allied with the bulk of the EU? Oh wait and Korea and Japan too??? they hate each other, most of Asia hates Japan and China the first for their empire and the second for their aggresive territorial policy oh and the state of human rights there. Also Russia and Georgia? Wouldnt all of the caucuses preffer Turkey or the Middle East because of Religion other than Georgia ofc.
On the UK though I feel, even despite Brexit, we are way closer to EU than any other "Anglo" country except America, and ever since Trump people dislike the idea of our "special relationship" more and more.
I think a lot of people will balk at this post but IMO it's pretty spot-on. The US has shitloads of open land and resources to support a still burgeoning population, hell the entire interior 2/3rds of the mainland are arguably still way under-populated. The US will probably be economically eclipsed this century, barring either major catastrophe elsewhere or an industrial revolution-tier discovery within the US, but in the long-run I don't think there's another country on Earth so gifted with such innate geographic, economic, and demographic advantages. The US will probably continue a long, slow, steady rise in the coming decades and centuries, remaining a relative island of stability in the world.
> Southern hemisphere
Yes, and I'm sure the local population is just going to welcome you with open arms once you destroy the world. Just look at all the goodwill the whites earned in Zimbabwe in the 70s.
The wheel never stops turning, gringo. Right now you can raid all the 7-11s you want. If you fuck up your Almighty Dollar, don't look to South America to bail you out. Fuck off, we're full.
Correct, I am not a American, never been there but entire "America is gonna die tomorrow hysteria" is exactly that, hysteria.
This, fundamentally is closest to future prediction you can make.
Speak for yourself, I'm an Argie and I would welcome Americans here. Patagonia is mostly empty anyway.
What's with the antiwhite Zimbabwe shit anyway? Where are you from?
North pole melting and becomes a new flashpoint
For the purpose of determining what is history, please do not start threads about events taking place less than 25 years ago.
Indonesia is basically Japan's colony. No way they'll let it go.
America isn't going away any time soon, but other nation defiantaely don't respect her as much as they used to. That might just be Trump though.
Yeah, that really has nothing to do with Trump. America is not one man band. They are far more than that.
American power is not in decline, it is simply that other powers are rising which were not there before. China, etc.
Russia is actually not rival to America anymore. They suffer from demographic disaster, like the rest of Europe.
What will happen:
>Unification of Korea
>Balkanization of Spain
>Fall of the UK or fall of the EU (choose one)
>USA intervenes in Iran and Turkey, eventually leads to the createion of Kurdish allied sovereign state in the region
>Chinese-American cold war becomes a thing
>China will try intervening in some countries just like the USA
>India will NOT become a superpower
I think what's really happened is you've been gaslit by your state's propaganda into thinking you have more in common with France than Canada or America.
This is pretty much the most accurate answer.
I really doubt UK will fall, they are stable, prosperous even without EU. EU on the other hand, is really messy political construct.
USA will never attack Iran or Turkey directly, this had been debated do death already.
All other things I agree though.
From what I read, Brits never truly felt at home in EU to begin with, they looked at other Anglophone countries with far more sympathy
India becomes a superpower in 2080
Pajeet and Osama Bin Allah are indeed superior genetic income. very true
These are just some of the thoughts I have about the future
>Russia will probebly decline as a world Power as it's demographics are declining and it can't rely on oil. Eventually I think Russia will move more towards the west, and join as a EU Allied
>China won't do anything significant. It has a fast paced Growth but still has far to go. The American military will still be able to dominate the Pacific, and China's neighbours will grow more wary of it.
>The EU probebly won't expand, as more members will garantee more unstability, wealth of New coming member will be a high priority. Ukraine might get some kind of light membership. Either the union will centrelize and grow in to a world Power, or it will continue to be on the sidelines.
>The USA might pull more away from the politics of other nations, and will either decline, or if Things go right, go into a New age of dominance
>Africa will still be developing. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Rwanda will become big regional Powers
>The east will continue to be devided, but I expect eventual move towards western alignment for the Whole region when oil becomes less usefull, Russia declines, and dictatorships becomes unstable because of constant interaction With the west.
>The BRICS alliance is a joke, each member will go there own seperate paths.
>The east
I meant the middle east