Realistic 2020 maps

Make some predictions

I'm thinking this next election will be very similar to the 1992 election. You had the incumbent republican president, George Bush, beaten by a Democratic candidate in a total landslide.

It should be noted that I can ONLY see this map happening if the DNC picks someone worthy such as Tulsi.

Key differences between the '92 election and '20 election will be this

>North Carolina and Virginia will go blue. Unlike in 1992 when they were permanently red states, both of these states are now considered toss-ups. Virginia in particular is going from toss-up to permanently blue as shown in the last election and in some special elections last year.

>Georgia and Montana will stay red. These went blue in '92 but I can't see them flipping next election.

Ok, so why do I think Trump has a major chance of losing? Simple

>Donald Trump's current approval ratings (lowest in presidential history),

>Trump's failure to do about 90% of the things he promised to do including but not limited to:
-No Obamacare repeal
-having mexico NOT paying for the Wall
-No immigration reform OR travel ban
-Not destroying ISIS
-No draining swamp
-jobs still being shipped overseas
-no NAFTA repeal
-No eliminating gun free zones
-etc etc

>Emergence of Democrats having MUCH higher turnouts in recent elections, including the Roy Moore election and Virginia

>Trumps tax plan will undoubtedly fuck up the economy by the time 2020 comes

Because of the last point in particular, trump will most likely not have the backup of the white middle class working vote. Majority of the blue states you see here were blue back in '92 and can be blue again in 2020. It's def not impossible.

Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

Isn't Alabama technically in play if a Democrat just managed to win a Senate seat there?

Well ... that is because we aren't fucking hipsters who run through the world with a rucksack thinking they'll find their special snowflake meaning in life. our society is our family, which also includes work and you could say that a lot of nords are proud to contribute to that, even though it's getting shittier because of governments being undermined by leftist radicals.

i wouldn't expect americans to relate, i certainly can't to them either. i have never seen so many ignorant, superficial and uneducated people in my life as i did in the states. your live is average and uninteresting, you don't have any culture except consumerism, your entire nation struggles needlessly because of your through and through corrupt and broken government. the most interesting thing i get to hear is that someone got shot around that corner and how the NRA is the best thing ever

t. german

But Arizona is already blue.
And South Carolina will be blue this year as well.
And Alabama is now a swing state with likely blue presidential votes in 2020.

Try again, but take off the rose tinted glasses.

AMIDOINITRITE?

You know, I thought about that. But I decided that Trump may infact win that state.

Moore only lost by like a few thousand votes. And the DNC went ALL OUT with Jones campaign. Trump is much more popular in that state then Moore will ever be, so I just gave the state to him.

>Alabama and South Carolina
>Blue
Read my reply above. These two states are deep south, I doubt they will be able to be flipped.

JIDF

Democrats are an anti white party now, good luck with that. The precious minority vote will vote republican too after they get their citizenship because they have conservative belief systems too and will refuse to vote for degenerate trannies, women, jews or faggots.

Yeah. I'm a spooky shill.

Now shoo. Let the adults talk about politics.

Keep smokin comrade

>Louisiana
>blue
>ever

Fuck you.

>Tulsi

shill elsewhere for your ugly acne scarred shitskin democrat nigger

Went blue in '92 and '96 though

You sound very smart.

Tulsi's father and husband and likely her too are part of a new age Krishna cult down in Hawaii ran by some nutter named Chris Butler

kys my man, you're a fucking retard.

92 election was after 12 yrs of republican presidency, if anything a dem win would resemble 1980.

The democrats will not win the presidency for the next 20 years at least. Too many whites have woken up and immigration from the 3rd world is dropping while deportations increase. The democrats revealed their hand too soon and whites all know they are the party of traitors and losers. Sorry OP but you are in for an angry 20 years, emmigration or suicide. Also sage

I'm afraid that they will conspire to split the Republican ticket with an election spoiler so that the establishment Republicans can return to comfy "being the opposition" while doing nothing. Win-win for Democrats and Republicans, but not the American people, as usual. And about half of the brainwashed public will thank them for it!

We will see. The Russia investigation might blow up in the democrats faces. Democrats own blm, antifa and feminism too.

Election is 3 years away, everybody knows Clinton was dirty as fuck, if she is brought to trial it might be during the next presidential election.

>Indiana
Seems unlikely, Indiana isn't a swing state, but rather almost solid red, they've only voted Democrat twice in the last 78 years. Their mostly conservative agricultural nature, lack of heavy urbanization, and slight separation from the Rust Belt make Indiana unlikely to go Democrat.
>Tennessee
Once almost a swing state, but have been swinging more and more Republican every single election 5 elections in a row. Unlike Louisiana, Virginia, or Florida, Tennessee is relatively white - roughly 3 in 4 citizens are non-Hispanic White. Unlikely to go Democrat, as the Appalachian area now seems almost locked in for the Republicans.
>Arkansas
Again, Arkansas is part of the "Solid South" for a reason - it isn't voting Democrat unless it's extremely strongly motivated, and if that's the case then more "diverse" states such as Georgia or Alabama probably go first. So I don't really see Arkansas flipping to be a realistic scenario.
And something that you've forgotten about the '92 elections - they were heavily affected by Ross Perot and his third-party run that soaked up much-needed votes from the Bush campaign. I don't see any charismatic individual like Perot able to run a highly successful third-party campaign around right now, and the current third parties are not relevant enough to be a significant hindrance.

Obongo is not out of the woods yet either.

Realistically, this is probably what the 2020 map will look like, barring any crazy unforeseen sweep that Trump may pull off due to the dems choosing Oprah or some stupid shit.

I think Trump will lose 2 of the 3 blue wall states; Wisconsin, Michigan and Pa, but he will retain at least one. I think the margins in florida and north carolina will be a lot tighter but I think he will still carry those states.

Republicans are going to get their asses kicked in 2018 and 2020. People know now that a republican is just a cuck, so they won't bother going to vote for them. Democrats, on the other hand, will keep their base and keep getting voted in. As for the President elections. Trump should win in 2020. However, with a democrat controlled house and Senate it will be even harder to pass any good right wing bills, so no tougher immigration bill or healthcare reforms. But, Trump will have easier time passing bills as he will work with democrats to pass stuff they want (e.g. infrastructure bill). The republican party needs to be dissolved. Its worse than useless as it takes the attention and support of actual right wing parties.

You faggots better be turning California red now because its fucking over

Get a load of this faggot
This is you right now.

If Trump runs for reelection and the economy doesn't crash, the map will probably be something like this. Not a complete wipeout, but not super-close. Trump is very unpopular, there's very little chance he could pull of another win.

The only thing true about that is Arizona being a weak state that could go blue. Alabama is not a swing state because of a freakazoid special election. President Trump won Alabama by over 25 points.

Sounds good to me, keep thinking that way. Last year it was supposed to be a lock for the most qualified candidate ever. No worries

Says the party of cheaters and lying criminals.

I can’t believe liberals are this delusional. Most people don’t take polls seriously these days because they all thought Hillary had a 90% chance of winning. And it’s Early 2018, Trump still has more than 2 years left.

If the economy took a turn and the bottom really fell out for Trump, a scenario like this would be reasonable

You think the economy can have 4 straight years of 3+ percent growth and the President not even get 200 EV? Come on now. You can predict a Democrat win even if the economy remains strong with a crash, but be reasonable.

DWS is going to prison for sure, her trial will take up at least a year. How many other democrats go down with her ?

I don’t know. The only ones who have gone down right now are Anthony Wiener and Al Franken. But there are a lot of people who could be involved.

what a load of shit

>went blue in 92 and 96
And we still haven't recovered since. Nah democrats are too anti-oil to ever win Louisiana.

Yeah, if the economy continues to strengthen and Trump basically performs competently for the next two years, maybe he could pull off a win similar to how he won in 2016. But I think at this point the Democrats are so fired up that places like PA and MI are basically gone. Winning FL would be tough, given how many Puerto Ricans have moved there in the last year.

>blue texas
>reasonable

Democrats will be lucky to even be the 2nd party in 10 years. The progressive wing hates them, as much as i do. Humpty Dumpty is not going back together again.

I said Trump wins you dumb ass. Republicans won in 2016 because people thought they were going to do something, but all they did is oppose Trump and backstab the American people. Most people voted for Republicans in 2016 because they wanted Obamacare overturned, lower taxes, tougher border controls, etc. Republicans couldn't pass a bill for healthcare, sneaked a bill for tax cuts, and don't want to touch immigration. They have done nothing of what they promised. Its why they got beat in Virginia and Alabama. There is no point in voting republican.
Not a democrat. Both parties are utter shit. Democrats are communists and republicans are cowardly traitors.

>Trumps existing historic unpopularity + economic recession
If there was a recession he'd get crushed

Because you have to have your ducks in a row to take down a major player. It takes time, but it is coming.

>Dems are fired up
> wins easily won governorship against Establishment shill
>OMG Trump is finished we will win
>Wins Alabama election by accusing other candidate of Sexual assault and Spending lots of mon
>OMG Trump is finished we will win
The absolute State of democrats

Democrats cannot have an open borders policy and win PA. Are you even from the US?

The economy not having even a minor bust will make it the longest period of economic growth in modern history. There is no way there isn't a downturn within Trump's term.

>Historic Unpouplarity
Nobody trusts polls anymore. If they didn’t say Hillary had a 98% Chance of Winning they would still be trusted.

If President Trump brings jobs back to the rust belt, Pa and Mi are his. He beat dems in those states because people lost hope. Platitudes dont win anymore.

Ross Perot caused the Republican loss in 92.

The polls being wrong doesn’t increase his chances of winning, it just means the polls are wrong. Also by saying that it’s unfair to make predictions now because trump still has two years, you discredit yourself saying the polls will be wrong because that would equally be an inaccurate prediction

98% chance at a point. Things then changed quickly when Comey started the email bullshit again while Trump recovered from his scandals of the time. Even then Trump won by a new coalition by very thin margins while losing the popular vote.

Most of the population is in Philly and Pittsburgh, and Trump is now extremely unpopular with the white suburban voters around those cities. PA is tough for Republicans.

If the economy continues to expand and he does something good on opioids and maybe infrastructure, sure, he could win again

Australia has gone many decades without a recession, so it's not like it's impossible.

Presidents have been more unpopular than Trump later on in their presidencies, but for a year in, he's not doing well. But I agree it's not the only statistic that matters.

It will be in his second term if anything. No one seems to understand that Obama stalled the recovery from 2008 with his book of regulations.
All of this economic growth is growth that should have happened under Obama, but he was too stupid to lighten up his hand.

So technically Trump could still pull a rabbit out of his hat and yield a full 8 year growth. That would be something.

Repubs are still going to be the least worst option for whites in midterms, twat

>muh urban population
You don't even know why PA went with Trump do you?

you are living on another planet.

Only way that happens is if Dems put up a moderate progressive that doesn't toe the party line, which they won't do because they are stupid. People hate the Dems right now. they hate the Republicans too, but not as much. At least the Republicans are rolling with the punches and willing to make concessions to the desires of their base, but Dems are doubling down on business as usual and it's going to fuck them.

It's also funny how you keep spouting
>muh unpopularity
when we live in an unprecedented time of media manipulation. The democrats thought this media apparatus would ensure them 2016, and they were dead wrong.
We could only be so lucky if the fools thing the same in 2020.

Im a proud Perot voter, he was 100% correct about the giant sucking sound.

Australia isn't the USA. We have a much more regulated and stable financial system, which keeps the market more in check. Which means we don't get crazy bull market, but we don't have massive crashes that wipe everything out. And we had a smart Labor government to respond to the 2008 crash that you americans set off.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_expansions_in_the_United_States

Moore barely lost, and he was an already unpopular and controversial candidate that had a pedophilia scandal, where he offered the weakest fucking defense possible. I fucking hate the Dems, and I wouldn't have voted for Moore. That won't happen again.

Retard doesn't know Ross Perot took Bush votes. Saged for poor topic.

k. Keep going to the same room using a different door.

>Mr. MIMAL going blue

Trump has nearly 90% Approval rating among Republicans in those biased liberal polls so any idea that red states are going to flip during his re-election is shear fucking lunacy. I cant wait to see the left get smacked in the fucking mouth again i hope they lose their shit and start a global revolt so i can shoot them in their fucking heads legally.

You have no grasp of demographics or regional politics in the USA.
>Missouri
>Arkansas
>Loisiana
>Tennesee
>North Carloina
>Indiana
>Going blue
Absolute stupidity and ignorance.

>Approval ratings
Remember those polls showing Hillary winning in a landslide? Oh.
>Trump's failures
He still has 3 years you inbred retard.
>Democrats having much higher turnouts
The opposition party histrionically does better in mid term elections. Again, another showing of your complete ignorance of US politics.
>Trump tax plan fucking the economy
Ah, an armchair economist. Don't make uneducated opinions, it just makes you look stupid.

Yet you ban video games and violent movies because you had a shitty rating system and when you fixed it you still didn’t let them be allowed, along with the fact that your government has a very anti-Capitalist tone, and you can’t use guns.

Trump did well across the board for a Republican, but mainly he captured a larger proportion of white rural voters than had previously been achieved, as well as doing well with educated suburban voters.

what do you think is the likeliest scenario?

Trump's command of free media coverage helped him win the primary, but in a general election this advantage is less relevant. I agree the manipulation of mass psychology is troubling for Democracy, but it seems likely that social media companies will be on their guard in 2020 after serving as a conduit for Russian cyberoperations.

I agree that the US is much more likely to experience a recession in any given year compared to Australia.

That's all dickhead Brannon's fault anyway. That piece of shit sabotaged Trump by pushing Moore over Luther Strange, whereas Strange would have crushed Doug Jones.

Nope. The simple fact is that the 2008 crash masked the shifting economy. Jobs were going to get exported overseas no mattter what. It isn't even just wages. China can fill a massive factory complex with trained workers in a matter of weeks. The USA would take months to be able to do the same.

The other factor is automation.

Regulation didn't stop the economy bouncing back. There just isn't as much room to bounce back into, until new tech and situation is fully adapted to. The shift from coal to natural gas and renewable. More automation. New infrascture. etc.

Dotr hasnt happened yet, im locked and loaded.

Fuck off with this shit until 2020.

>implying Trump and Bush are the same
>implying the democrats are have done anything worthwhile
>democrats only platform is anti-white, GIBSMEDAT, LET ALL THE NIGGERS AND SPICS IN, FUCK SHIT UP SENPAI

...

self identified republicans. People are leaving the republican party.

And? Oh and no. Our current prime minister is a former investment banker. Not a anti capitalist tone.

And we do have guns. Just regulated.

>Trump is very unpopular

You realize that the same exact polls you're quoting that from are the same ones that called him unpopular before he won, right?

Does this kind of idiotic shilling make you feel better about what has transpired?

all red states for Trump without exception.

>Similar to 1992

>Who is Ross Perot

I curse that faggot every single day. If he wouldn't have split the Republican vote, we would have never heard about the Clintons.

>People are leaving the republican party.
No.

fucking kek. ok.

Nope. None of these approval polls or perceived policy failures (minor) make a difference. The people who voted for him before will vote for him again, and many people who were independent who didn't vote for him last time will vote for him in 2020 as an incumbent. The only thing that can cause him to lose is demographics - millions of leftist foreigners will have been naturalized and identified by the DNC apparatus since 2016. That could do it.

Probably should have voted for him, if you had the chance. Both parties were already cucked by then. Pat Buchanon was also a candidate in the primary that election.

Now that trump cut taxes and can't pay for Medicare, your white ss grandma will be democrat.

Sure, but Hillary was *also* very unpopular. It's unlikely that Democrats will nominate someone that bad again. Plus Trump is even *more* unpopular than he was before becoming president. Popularity isn't a decisive metric, but it's better than nothing, and so far it doesn't bode well for him. A lot will depend on if there's a recession or not, and whether Democrats take the House or Senate in 2018 and start investigating him for stuff.

>Arkansas and Missouri blue, ever
this will never happen

My white ass grandma died during obongo admin

It could be like 1992 except with a popular "progressive" candidate taking away Democratic votes resulting in a trump landslide

Only way this happens is if our bull economy tanks before 2018, which I won't count outside the realm of possibility with the bubble we are in. Otherwise it's easy, Trump just has to say 'look at how awesome our economy is, I finally got it back on track after 8 anemic Obama years'.

Not going to listen to any argument that says Trump didn't fix it, because it doesn't matter. He's president, and he's the mouthpiece that matters. Democrats are a headless snake, so all they will have is their media propaganda and social media spam to contest it, and literally no one listens to that shit unless it's something they already agree with. Trump's base is intact, and at worse they will suffer minimal losses. They are most vulnerable in the Senate, with a 1 member majority, but they only have 8 seats up for reelection, as opposed to 25 for the Dems and their allies. All the key races aside from Nevada and Arizona are for the Dems to lose. Then you have to consider that nogs and spics don't come out to vote unless it's for president. Midterms generally are not kind to Dems.

If Republicans face a threat, it's in 2020, they will lose nothing in 2018 and quite likely will gain.

fuck off u Soros-sucking shillblue niggerfaggot

>with a popular "progressive" candidate taking away Democratic votes resulting in a trump landslide
I think enough people learned their lesson with 2016 related to this. I saw enough outrage over joke votes for Harambe and shit like that, as well as for Stein and whoever the fuck else, where it spurned the sore losers. "We could have won if not for the votes going to people other than Hillary" etc.

> trump unpopular

I don't think this is accurate. In my absolutely cucked city of Ottawa, i've noticed a change of tone. People are still bashing Trump, but it's almost like it's become a running gag. There's never any real complaints based on outcomes of his actions. Just petty insults and assumptions that everybody around you will agree because hating Trump is the "normal" thing to do, whether there's a reason or not.

As soon as you start defending him, you'll shut them right up, because they are so used to whining about him without thinking, that they don't know what they are whining about. Media manipulation and hive mentality can only go so far if Trump produces real tangible results, as he has so far. When the time comes, people will vote with their wallets.

>having this much of a hard time coping with reality
This is just sad, crying on Sup Forums will not make 2020 come any faster.
Predicting easy Trump victory, maybe even a historical blowout if voter ID laws kick in, as he hinted.
You're in for very long and painful 7 years.

Both parties are losing self identified people. 'Independents' are a rapidly growing demographic. Republicans are just losing them faster. Google it mate.

However most independents still mostly vote one way.


Anyway 2020 predictions

Nevada and Arizona are both blue. They both trended Democrat in 2016, even in a national red wards swing from 2008/2012.

Some of the Blue wall will be retaken. The margins were that thin. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Florida will tip back. Even if 2016 was rerun and Trump won by the same margin nationally, the Puerto rican influx from the natural disaster will tip this swing state.

Georgia trended Democrat and in special elections on the local level gave Democrats a number of pickups. This state will be a swing state. North Carolina trended slighly more Republican but is close enough to swing.

Iowa has a fair chance of staying red, swinging past Texas. But both it and Texas will both trend much closer blue, so they won't be totally safe. The thing to watch is 2018, for both. Both has incumbent Senators, a Democrat and Republican respectively. The Democrat is fairly popular, while Cruz is quite unpopular even in the party. A strong enough blue wave could hand Iowa back and Texas in the process.

Oh I know, Bannon is a fucking moron. Between that and his dumb book comments he's fucked himself into irrelevancy.

Arizona is going blue. And Alabama already turned blue

One thing is for sure, Broward County in Florida will be voting for whomever the next Deep State Puppet is. They have been shady every election starting with GW....and that is just the first that I was old enough to give a shit about. Who knows what happened before that but Broward County reeks of Soros

If the economy is similar or better than it is now and Trump doesn’t do something drastically stupid that the media doesn’t have to make fake outrage to piss off middle class whites, who are the democrats going to run to win back the middle class in 2020? Bernie will be an older old man and really who is there in that party that’s worth a shit and not stale? Construction and manufacturing are adding jobs every month. Why would they vote for a change back to the party they voted against 4 years ago if that demographic is working and got a tax cut?

Where is New California on this map?

Most independents are either farther left or farther right than the milquetoast establishment political parties.

In general I totally agree that national US politics has become more about entertainment and signalling tribal identity than about tangible policy outcomes, so if the economy continues to chug along we could very well see him win reelection. But elections also hinge on *turnout*, so it's not really enough to just have people feel fine about everything--you need Republican base voters to be fired up and voting at high numbers (which the Democrats certainly will). I wonder if some people might just stay home because they're tired of being forced think think about politics all the fucking time.