What are some decent puzzle games that I can get my hands on...

What are some decent puzzle games that I can get my hands on? Preferably ones with challenges that can't be solved easily by first graders, pic related for example.

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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox
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50%, the probability doesn't change.

50%

The answer is two thirds and everyone with an actual math education knows this.

Those of you who haven't taken a probability course or are baiting may now reply.

1/2

4729/9458

global or local probability?
answer this or fuck off

Reading the problem and applying basic logic eliminates the only silver box entirely.
You now have a choice between:
-Both gold box
-one gold one silver box

>What is the probability that the NEXT ball you take from the same box will also be gold
>NEXT
>not BOTH

You're fucking retarded, we already know that our box is either the one on the left or the middle, effectively eliminating the right box. So, we can look at the problem as a 50-50 chance of us having the left or the right box. And even following your logic, you still have to remove the ball you chose from both of the boxes, since you've theoretically taken out a ball from both boxes due to the uncertainty of the problem, thus leaving us with the same 50-50 elaborated on earlier. It sounds retarded as fuck when I try and describe it, but I know it's right.

But it's 50%.

You take a ball. It's gold. This eliminates the silver-silver box entirely

Assuming that you don't put the gold ball back in, the box you chose will either contain another gold ball or a silver ball.

50% chance.

according to a friend, zero time dilemma has problems like this, including the monty hall problem

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

Obviously 66%, because out of the 3 gold balls you might select, 2 of them have another gold ball in the same box

How are you getting 50%? Obviously 2/3rds of the gold balls have a gold as their partner

The thing is though, you are missing a factor. If you do grab a ball then it is more likely that you grabbed it from the box with two gold balls than the box with one gold and one silver. Hence why your new probability for pulling another gold ball is in proved to a 2/3 chance

This is under the assumption that we were not instructed to choose a box initially.

Would being able to see into the boxes change the answer?

What you need to do is make a table to find unions and shit.

It's a 66% chance right?

>the box you chose will either contain another gold ball or a silver ball.
>50% chance.

>either you win the lottery, or you don't win the lottery! 50% chance!

No, because this problem has only 2 steps. If the only thing you changed about this was increasing the number of objects per container, then yes.

>2/3rds of the gold balls have a gold as their partner
That's a good way of phrasing it

>what is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold
>the next ball
>from the same box

It is 50%

I get the 66% answer, but it's the answer to a question that's essentially different.

To all saying it would be 2/3, it would only be that if the left and middle boxes were COMBINED. But since they're not, its a question of which box, not which ball. And since there are only 2 viable boxes to choose from, it would be 50%.

It's 66% if you choose to treat the double gold box as two different decisions for the initial choice as opposed to simply silver or gold. it is 50% if you choose to treat the double gold box as a single decision.

It's not 50%. You have to determine the probability by breaking down each scenario.

1. You pick the gold ball accompanied by the silver ball
2. You pick the first gold ball accompanied by the other
3. You pick the second gold ball accompanied by the other

In the latter two situations, the other ball in the box is also gold. 2/3 probability. It's not the intuitive answer if you jump the gun (like I did at first), but it's the correct answer.

>It's a Sup Forums argues over a puzzle episode

87

Literally 87

87

You're wrong. I thought this too, but it's 2/3rds.

These problems are strange because I understand the 2/3rds answer yet also understand how it should be 50

to follow up, the question asks only what the chance of pulling a gold ball on the next draw would be...

Breaking this down, this first requires a gold ball to be drawn first, eliminating the box with both silvers.
Looking at the second box, we have already pulled the gold, and we are left with a silver, this box is not the one causing confusion.
Now the first box. People are treating the two gold balls as different, when it's not what the question is asking. We don't care which of the gold balls has been pulled, that doesn't matter. The NEXT ball we pull will be gold, regardless of which we pulled first.
This simplifies down to a Yes or No problem.

87

L8

>3 gold balls, 1 silver
>you pick gold
>2/3 of the remaining balls are gold
How is that 50%? There are only 3 scenarios since they excluded the chance of starting with a silver ball

It actually doesn't matter if you combine them in your probability or not, so long as the combined boxes have at least one gold.

You're right that the second choice would be 50%, but the first choice had a 2/3 chance of being in the box of 2 golds. That carries over and since adding 50% doesn't affect the final result is 2/3.

...

If the question is which box, then if you get a gold ball there's a 2/3 chance there's twice the probability you picked the double gold one than the gold and silver one. Seems pretty straightforward.

>it's a Sup Forums has a shitfit over probabilities episode

...

Shown above are four men buried up to their necks in the ground. They cannot move, so they can only look forward. Between A and B is a brick wall which cannot be seen through.
They all know that between them they are wearing four hats--two black and two white--but they do not know what color they are wearing. Each of them know where the other three men are buried.
In order to avoid being shot, one of them must call out to the executioner the color of their hat. If they get it wrong, everyone will be shot. They are not allowed to talk to each other and have 10 minutes to fathom it out.
After one minute, one of them calls out.
Question: Which one of them calls out? Why is he 100% certain of the color of his hat?
This is not a trick question. There are no outside influences nor other ways of communicating. They cannot move and are buried in a straight line; A & B can only see their respective sides of the wall, C can see B, and D can see B & C.

Yes this. This post really helped me understand it.

The flaw in logic is that since we MUST draw a golf ball for the problem to work, we don't carry over the percentage of probability, when in reality we should.

At least I think

Also OP
Silent Hill 1

50%
the puzzle says from the same box, so it can't be the silver-silver box. Your hand is either in the gold-gold or the gold-silver box. only one out of 2 has another gold ball in it, so it's 50%

It's amazing how people who have no idea what they're talking about will flock to show off how much more clever they are than people who know the subject, even when the mathematical solution to the puzzle is googlable.

Even if the question states what the first draw was, you still have to take the first draw into account for determining the probability. Thus, you can't ignore the box with two silver balls in it just because you know you drew a gold ball, thus the answer is 2/3rds.
Is that simple enough?

>all the people who already gave the right anwer
>that couple of retards that know the anwer was right, but they still give wrong answers and come up with flawed logic, just to incite the shit flinging

Yes, OP, you are trully a ruseman.

This is another Bayes' theorem problem
Call the boxes A,B,C where A has two golds and C has two silvers
We're looking for P("we picked box A"|"we drew gold the first time") since we'll draw a second gold iff we picked A
P(A|gold) = P(gold|A) * P(A) / P(gold) = 1 * (1/3) / (1/2) = 2/3

meant to reply to

this is a trick question, there is no number, if there was you'd be able to see it poking out.

C knows he has a black hat if he knows D is refraining from calling out. If D does not call out, that means he see's a white and a black hat. C sees a white hat so he knows his hat is black.

>I want a good puzzle, like this one
>posts a statistics problem

That's not a puzzle, moron.

IT LITERALLY SAYS FROM THE SAME BOX, NOT THE NEXT. If you drew a gold ball, it's not the silver-silver box. You can't get a gold ball from the silver-silver box, you idiot.

I think this is the big confusion point in this thread. The image states you pull a gold ball for the first choice. There is no probability in it, it is given.
Now the choice is deciding whether or not what is being asked of you is to include that first pull in your calculations for probability and find the probability for the entire problem of drawing 2 gold, or finding the probability for only the second pull.

This is the main deviation of thought in this thread.

I get why its 2/3 but its still bullshit

That doesn't matter, it's asking what the probability of pulling another gold ball is.

It's either going to be a gold one or a silver one. The double silver box has already been eliminated by the fact that a gold ball came out.

There are two scenarios. The fact that a gold ball was pulled out removes the double silver box as a possibility.

50%. I wish Sup Forums didn't love to bait.

1/3 chance

>There are two scenarios. The fact that a gold ball was pulled out removes the double silver box as a possibility.
Yeah two scenarios. One is twice as likely as the other however due to the set-up. Hence 2/3, and 1/3.

I didn't say otherwise. Not sure what you're arguing

Can I get a fukken explanation?

You're in a room with no windows or doors. The only things in the room are a table and a mirror. How do you escape?

Please stop baiting. Dear god MODS DELETE THREAD NO VIDYA GAMES ITS 50% /THREAD

>The image states you pull a gold ball for the first choice. There is no probability in it, it is given.

That's not true though. Sure the outcome is given, but the probability of having reached that outcome still exists. Of all the golds you could have first chosen, 2/3 are in the left box. You don't have to include the first pull in your probability, because it doesn't make a difference either way. The question still stands as to which box it came from.

Kill yourself by bashing your head against the table.

>What is the probability the the next ball you take FROM THE SAME BOX will also be gold?
That means we know we don't have double silver box correct?
That means we took from either the g&g or g&s
Knowing that, what we have in our box either is either gold or silver.
Even though we have 2 golds to our one silver we aren't trying to find the odds of what finding a gold ball out of both boxes are at this point, we're trying to figure out the odds of us having the double gold at this point.
Seeing how there is only one out of two boxes that can fit this scenario where we would pull another gold on top of what we pulled now, it is 50/50.
You're thinking before we already took the first step.

Throw the table at the mirror, effectively breaking it. After that you take a piece of glass and cut yourself and wait till you bleed to death, until you escape life into a better place.

I stick my head up my asshole. I put the asshole on the wall and climb through.

How the fuck do people think that the silver-silver box could have been taken?

I know you're trying to be insightful, but you clearly don't have a grasp of the theory. 50% is not the correct answer under any interpretation.

This is the stupidest fucking riddle ever conceived

I believe it's 50% and here is my argument.

Imagine I have a piece of paper and I wrote down a number on it. Now I'm telling you that the number is between the range of 1 to 1,000,000. If you were to make the guess you'll have 0.0001% of guessing the number right.

Now I would reduce the range from 1,000,000 to 1,000, and request you to make a guess within the range of 1 to 1,000. According to your logic, the reduction of options available and alternating your choices would increases your probability of guessing the number correctly to 99.9%. And since you have a 99.9% probability of guessing the number correctly, I am pretty confident you will win the bet.

I'm sure some of you can program. Just run the experiment and you'll see the truth. :)

You didn't say the room had walls.

I get why it's 2/3, I think, but this is just a bullshit "You got the right answer in a realistic sense but TECHNICALLY ACCORDING TO THE LAWS OF PROBABILITY YOU'RE WRONG!"

Is this some bullshit riddle about how "I never said there were walls I'm so clever. :^)" or is the answer that you break the glass and kill yourself?

No one, no one says this

all rooms have walls

>you got the answer right in a realistic sense

But you didn't. Realistically, practically, mathematically, whateverally, the answer cannot be 50%

This is what the 2/3rds idiots are saying to bait people into replying.

>but this is just a bullshit
>realistic sense
You can actually simulate the experiment yourself dude.

00 is the number hidden under the car.

False.

>You got the right answer in a realistic sense but TECHNICALLY ACCORDING TO THE LAWS OF PROBABILITY YOU'RE WRONG!

No, he did not "get the right answer in a realistic sense." Either I'm Barack Obama or I'm not. Those scenarios are not equally likely. And we have either the gold + gold box or the gold + silver box, but those are not equally likely scenarios.

As a matter of fact even if you pulled a silver ball the answer would still be 50/50.
Even if you were trying to find the silver balls it would be 50/50.

not a room

If I take a gold ball out and then bet money on the next ball being gold, I would get twice the money back if I win, not thrice.

>pick ball up
>its Golden
>means the Silver/Silver box is out of the way
>3 balls remaining
>1 silver, 2 gold
>2 in 3 chance that the next one is golden as well

fucking autism

So you've never actually read the problem?

The two silvers box doesn't actually matter. Were it removed from the problem entirely, the answer remains the same.

You can see it in the equation for the problem

1/(1+1/2+0) = 2/3
1/(1+1/2) = 2/3

Are the people who are saying 2/3 just ignoring the wording of the question?

Because if not the only explanation I've seen for why it's 2/3 is that you have to ignore part of the riddle.

2/3rds of the boxes have two balls of the same colour
once you have one ball of either colour there's a 2/3 chance the next ball matches that colour

Now this is an amazing shitpost

Thats a patio

It's 50%, because you can effectively ignore the last box because it has only a silver, but OP should have shown this.
Also ignore typo, i just copied pasta.

IN THE SAME BOX. You can't take anything out of the other box. It's the probability of you taking out a gold ball FROM THE SAME BOX.

I'm really starting to think the 2/3 people are just baiting at this point. If not, explain why you're ignoring part of the riddle.

It's something like:
Look in the mirror to see what you saw.
Take the saw and cut the table in half.
Put the halves together to make a whole.
Put the hole on the wall to escape.

You look in the mirror, you see what you saw, saw the table in half, put the two halves together to make a hole, jump into the hole to escape.

>2016
>people still arguing about easy math problems

Use google

I fucking don't understand why it's 2/3.
Is it because you've take a ball that is gold and that if it's the middle box, you would have less probability to take a gold one ?

I know its the same box. Its still 2/3

Are the people who are saying 1/2 just ignoring the axioms probability?

Because if not the only explanation I've seen for why it's 1/2 is that you have to ignore Bayes Theorem.

The phrasing of the question is perfectly fit for the solution to be 2/3. The question is, what is the probability that the next ball will be gold. The explanation is that the probability of having picked a gold from the 2 gold box is the number of golds in that box divided by the number of golds in total. 2/3.

You can literally fucking google it, this has been solved and explained by actual mathematicians and is used in academia to teach probability.

This actually makes sense.

The weird part about OP's problem is that we are essentially dealing with only two boxes. One which has an additional gold ball and one which has a silver ball.

I have no fucking clue how this is 2/3, and this is coming from someone who fully understands the goat door problem