Alright you smart motherfuckers. I just finished The Witness and feel like a fucking genius

Alright you smart motherfuckers. I just finished The Witness and feel like a fucking genius.
What are some other good puzzle games that makes me feel like Einstein?

Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox
vladimirslepnev.itch.io/zigzag
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
twitter.com/AnonBabble

Is this a trick? It's 50% right?

La Mulana

It seems like it should be 50% so it probably isn't because this is one of those tricky probability things.

yeah it's 50%

unless there's some bullshit trick we don't know

i think it would be a 5/7 chance it would be gold

2/3

You have 2 possibilities
The other ball is gold
The other ball is silver

That is 1/2, 50%.

1/3

2/3 of the gold balls are paired up with a gold ball.

This is the same thing as the "what is the chance you land 2 crits" question if the first hit is a crit

People will say 1/3 and people will say 1/2

just ignore it

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

Yes, unless the other ball turns into a goat.

But I can see into the boxes user

This is what happens when the picute is more interesting than the question I guess.

Best way I've seen to explain this is Wikipedia:

>The probability that GG would produce a gold coin is 1.
>The probability that SS would produce a gold coin is 0.
>The probability that GS would produce a gold coin is 1/2


>Therefore (probability gold from GG) / (probability gold from any) = 1/1+0.5 = 2/3

Somebody post the Monty Hall problem already

>"paradox theories"
Also known as the "what if logic didn't really exist and we decided to let math take over our life?"

>probability that GS would produce a coin is 1/2

More like 0 cause you already took the gold coin out as part of the premise

fuck you christina

But nigga, it says you already plucked a gold, and asks the probability of what the NEXT ball will be FROM THE SAME BOX, meaning SS box is completely and utterly removed from the equation.

>math isn't logic

depends where you view it from
if you've reached infinity, it's 1; otherwise,

This takes into account the probabilities of the boxes you chose. You were MORE likely to pick a box with a gold coin than without one.

If you're into some fantasy shit, you'll probably enjoy something like Legend of Grimrock 1 & 2. Lots of great puzzles and secrets, even if combat is a bit stiff. Sequel is fucking amazing, though.

Currently trying Arx Fatalis and it is turning out to be pretty god damn mind bending at times with how intricate dungeon crawling is.

50% chance.

out of context, as in if someone just get into the middle where you found that the other ball is gold, 1/2 is also correct because the probability of getting gold is literally either yes or no. 2/3 works if you calculate from the start but in the context of the next ball is either silver or gold is 50%, knowing that the other box has no gold balls at all. .

this is a trick puzzle.

It's not asking the probability of you getting two gold coins. It's asking the probability of you getting a gold coin after already taking one out of the box.

Don't overcomplicate things, user.

It's 2/3.
Since you picked out a gold ball, you can effectively ignore the third box with only silver.

There is twice the chance you picked the first gold ball from the box with two of them, than the box with just one. Therefore, twice the chance the second ball you pick will be gold.

The question is actually asking what the chance is that you randomly chose a gold ball from the double gold ball box. Since there are three possibilities to pull out a gold ball and two of them are in the double box, the probability is 2/3.

If you don't get why its 2/3 probability, it's because if you grab a good coin there's a higher chance is from the box with two gold coins rather than the one with two, so that raises the chances of getting a second gold coin.

>1/1 + 1/2 = 2/3

This has got to be some sort of next level retardation

OP related is 50% because you have already picked a gold and there is a 1/2 chance the next will be gold and 1/2 that it will be silver, 50%, because there are only two boxes you could have picked gold from first, kind of a trick question.

if you disagree you're probably a math teacher and I hate you.

50% chance.

Since you already gotten one gold ball. You can entirely rule out any possibility that you were in the silver/silver box.

Therefore your next puck will either be from the gold/gold box or the gold/silver box. It's a 50% chance your next puck will be gold.

Its 1/2.

Last time it got posted the op tried to argue some other result since the question was "intended to be" a tricky you-dont-really-get-probability question, despite its wording giving you a concrete 1/2.

Anyone who says its not 1/2 is trying to argue from the "spirit" of the question to have some kind of twist you overlooked, rather than the actually really easy and straightforward question actually posed.

vladimirslepnev.itch.io/zigzag

But there's a higher chance you got the first ball from the box with two golds.

>the actually really easy and straightforward question actually posed.
You're right, it's really easy and straightforward.
It's 2/3.

It can be logic, but it often flies in the face of common sense because they rely on their own sets of rules. With OP's problem in question, it stands to reason that if you picked up one golden ball, you only have two possibilites left: You chose the box with one golden ball, or the one with two golden balls. But since we're dealing with math logic, they're trying to discover whether or not the odds are 1:2 or 1:3, which is where the paradox comes from.

It's only a paradox because math needs a fucking update.

You aren't taking into account the chances of where you picked the first gold ball from.

This is all en elaborate ruse right? Sup Forums doesn't actually believe that it's 1/2?

here's why you're wrong

that higher chance doesn't matter because we're not talking about that draw, we're talking about the next one. The chance of the first ball being gold is 100%, the second ball is 50%

>3 in 6 is 50/50
>eliminate 1
>2 in 6 is 50/50

derp

1/3 chance to pick the first box, 1/1 chance to get yellow, we have 1/3 from this
1/3 chance to pick the second box, 1/2 chance to get yellow, 1/6 from this one
1/3 chance to pick the last box, 0 chance to get a yellow
so it's 1/2

the first draw is set you fucking morons there's no chance involved at all

After picking the first ball, there are 2 gold balls and 1 silver ball left. Therefore 2/3 or 66%

>you can only pull one of two coins from your next draw
>the odds of your next draw are 2/3

Not sure if bait or stupid.

50%

Update math, then. Submit a patch that fixes this "bug," because clearly it's not a problem with how you're looking at it.

Math is always updated, it's how far removed our own senses are from pure, unfiltered logic that make it seem like it doesn't make sense.

Math is in fact, more logical than reality.

Try Stephen's Sausage Roll.

>But since we're dealing with math logic, they're trying to discover whether or not the odds are 1:2 or 1:3

The problem with 1:3 is that people are counting balls from another box that they never even touched. Which doesn't make sense. 1/3 takes into account of a box that has two balls left AND the box that has 1 ball left.

If you already taken one ball from the box and pick from the same box, there should be only 1 ball left. So assuming there is 1 ball left in box boxes (because you're picking from the exact same box), the logical answer should be 1:2, which is 50%.

Anyone who says 2/3 is just a retard.

It does matter, because it influences which box you got the ball from,which in turn influences what the second ball is.

>what is the probability that the NEXT DRAW will be
>hurrr its 1/3 because what about the first one too

K Y S

By getting a gold ball, you've eliminated one of the boxes from the equation entirely.
Either you picked the first box and will get the second gold ball, or you picked the second box, and will get the silver ball. So it's 50%.

Is this whole thread retards not understanding the monty hall problem and claiming that math is wrong?

the box with 2 silvers are irrelevant to the question since you already grabbed a golden ball.

so you got it either from the gold/silver or gold/gold box so it's a 50% chance

You're picking from the same box as before you cunt, not from any box. You pick a box, and the first ball you get from it is golden. You do not pick a ball from the other boxes, you're just trying to decide how likely it is that this box will reveal another gold ball. Since only 2 of the three boxes contain gold balls at all, the silver/silver box is discarded since that couldn't possibly be the box we pulled a gold from. Now, the likelihood that this box we've chosen has another gold in it is 50/50, since it can only be one of two boxes.

i read the question wrong moron shut the fuck up or i'll kill you

>Ignoring half of the question in order to make it accomodate your own dull brain

Not sure if bait or braindead.

It's 2/3, you dummies.

We have a single event that resulted in choosing a Gold Ball, and we are determining an outcome caused by the initial event.

To look at it another way, the question is actually "what are the chances you took a gold ball from the box with two gold balls".

It doesn't matter though because you will always pick a gold ball on the first try.

The only thing that matters is the second draw where the chances are 50-50

Anyone who doesnt understand this, read this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Its not intuitive at first, but its been argued to death.

the box is already picked, the situation is set and you csn completely ignore the 3rd box. it's either the first or second

If it says you've taken a gold ball then it's literally 50/50 right? You have either taken from box 1 or box 2 meaning that one box has another gold and one box has a silver.

The first draw is a gold ball, but where it came from isn't set. The fact that there a higher chance for it to have come from the box with two golds influences the probability of the second draw being gold .

No it isn't, you retard, the question is explicitly "what is the probability of your next draw?"
The first draw is set. It is completely irrelevant at this point except to provide the context that you are dealing with one of the boxes that contains gold balls.

You don't magically always pick a gold ball, that's simply what happened in this event. It could have just as easily been a silver ball.

2/3

If you pick out a gold ball it is either
1.1: The first gold ball in the first box
1.2: The second gold ball in the first box
2: The only gold ball in the second box.
If you picked 1.1, you will pull 1.2 out.
If you picked 1.2, you will pull 1.1 out.
If you picked 2, you will pull a silver out.

All of these three scenarios are equally likely.
Therefore, you have a 2/3 chance of pulling out a gold.

Nigga you're drawing from the same box twice

If you draw one and then someone walks into the room and you ask him to draw the next one from the same box it's not going to change shit

Alternatively if this person chooses another box at random it's a completely different problem

Problem is simpler than it looks. Ignore the third box entirely. If you grab a good ball, there's a 50% chance it's the first one

This is not the Monty Hall problem, the chance is still 2/3 but for different reasons.

>You don't magically always pick a gold ball

You're a retard. Re-read the entire thing. It fucking tells you your first draw was a gold ball.

People seem to be confused and think the first draw matters

>you don't always rescue the princess that's just the storyline

mathematically prove the probability using that logic

A quick read of it might help some of the morons here understand.

0% because I kill myself

I guess I would be better at math if I could read

This is Bertrand's box paradox not Monty Hall. But they're the same in that it brings out the retards in Sup Forums

The question doesnt even begin until halfway through, the first part establishes circumstance and certainty on preliminary factors and therefore entirely discounts them from the equation.

You dont factor a dead set certainty into probability because you're not being asked to predict what has already observably happened, no matter how badlly you want to be the special snowflake that cracked the "real" riddle.

>all these people thinking order doesn't matter
It says the first ball is gold, and it's asking about the next ball picked, so order obviously matters. You either pick up the left gold ball in box one first, the right gold ball in box one first, or the gold ball in box two first.
You then have three possibilities for the second ball respectively: right gold ball in box one, left gold ball in box one, or silver ball in box two. Two of those three choices end with picking up a second gold ball, ergo it is 2/3.

This thread is confirmation that a good chunk of Sup Forums is retarded. It's 2/3.

100% chance of picking up a gold ball
I'm King Midas

I don't gotta prove it cause some nerd did it 100 years ago.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

Nah, the Monty Hall problem is subtly different. If you want a thread of retards not understanding it you'll have to introduce it separately.

>What are some other good puzzle games that makes me feel like Einstein?

Myst. All of them. Once you graduate those Schizm: Mysterious Journey.

Yes, it's an event that happened, that had a chance to happen, and was more likely to happen if you chose the first box. It is in no way irrelevant.

Let's expand the question to the ludicrous so the issue becomes plain. Same question, except that each box now has 50 balls each, the first box all gold, the second one gold, forty nine silver, and the third box has all silver. You draw a gold ball. What are the chances the next ball you draw is gold? Do you really think it's 1/2?

>If you pick out a gold ball it is either
>1.1: The first gold ball in the first box
>1.2: The second gold ball in the first box
>2: The only gold ball in the second box.

Except there should only be 1 ball left in the first box since you already taken out 1 gold ball in your first draw. And there won't be any gold ball in the second box, just a silver ball since you already taken the gold ball on your first draw.

You either:
1. Take the last gold ball from the first box.
2. Take silver ball from second box.

That's all the choices you have left since you are drawing from the exact same box which should have only 1 ball left. 50% chance is the only correct answer here.

>you arn't taking into account the chance of the first pick
you mean the 100% deffinate gold defined by the question?

not sure if trolling or misapplying logical paradoxes.

See

Even if you alwyas pick a gold ball the 2/3 chance remains as the question clearly states that the pick is random and therefore the chance to pick the box with two gold balls is twice as much as the box with only one.

>Schizm

Always switch. That's the only correct answer.

>Let's expand the question to the ludicrous so the issue becomes plain. Same question, except that each box now has 50 balls each, the first box all gold, the second one gold, forty nine silver, and the third box has all silver. You draw a gold ball. What are the chances the next ball you draw is gold? Do you really think it's 1/2?

Nailed it.

I think this analogy is wrong because in the OP we're not given the choice of switching our pick. To apply it on the wiki article: If the player picked gate 1 and gate 3 is revealed to be a goat, how's the probability that the player picked the car?

Space chem is a really good puzzle game.

>the probability that GS would be gold is 1/2
you already picked that ball, like I say, misapplying paradoxes.

unless you're putting the ball back in which the question does not specify, in which case I totally understand, but frankly you are a massive troll.

>Everyone saying 50%

Wrong. its 1/216th.

> Same question, except that each box now has 50 balls each, the first box all gold, the second one gold, forty nine silver, and the third box has all silver. You draw a gold ball. What are the chances the next ball you draw is gold? Do you really think it's 1/2?

You're a fucking idiot. Those are entirely different numbers here and of course it won't be 1/2 chance with those numbers. It isn't relevant to OP's question.

English Country Tune and Stephen's Sausage Roll.

Okay