>all I need to upgrade my weapon is one nibelsnarf claw
Why, this shouldn't be too hard!
>grab Nibelsnarf quest >break both his front legs during the quest for the extra chance >capture him
>have a 17% chance to get a claw from the quest itself >have another 17% chance to get a claw from the subquest (break his legs, what a coincidence) >have a 23% chance to get one because I captured him >have a 70% (yes, seventy) chance to get a claw cause I broke his front legs
>get NO claw >all these odds should've added up to almost 100% one way or another
You break both his legs and expect the claw to be intact?
Justin Moore
that isn't how percents work
Daniel Robinson
oh yeah, prove it. calculate what my odds of getting a claw were, I provided you all the info you need
cmon einstein
Colton Cook
literally already been done
Aiden Gutierrez
99% chance to hit doesn't mean 100%.
Its XCOM baby. And yes, the desire sensor is real, stop wanting it and you'll receive it
Lucas Peterson
How do I make the game think I don't want it
Ryder King
>I had a 100% chance to get one claw
Kek
American """""""""education"""""""""
Jordan Ramirez
I said almost. And I'm right, I did the math and it was 94.75%
So fuck you lad
Jaxson Barnes
start making a weapon that requires you to hunt Nibelsnarf and requires everything but the claws
Lincoln Lopez
>want rathian something >10 tries didn't get it >fuck it I will try to get another piece meanwhile from another monster >rathian shows up, kill it >get just the item I had gave up on
Stop wanting it and you will receive it.
Christopher Thomas
>american mathematics
Leo Thompson
Because the series runs on Korean RNG, where 99% means 70% and can only get worse.
John Cooper
It approximately a 84% chance that you'll get even one claw you fucking retard
Alexander Scott
1-(0.83^2x0.77x0.30)
John Rogers
Actually it's
Jayden Sullivan
You are literally retarded. Literally.
Michael Thomas
No its not. If you think that then you're wrong. Take stat during your next semester in highschool.
Connor Watson
Ha, I see my bait has worked once again!
Jaxson Hernandez
Wait by your argument you had 127% chance to get a claw?
You can't add percentages together moron.
Luke Gray
...Anonymous 07/29/16(Fri)16:50:33 No.346653532 Monster Hunter Gen 4* Star Quests (High Rank) ID: 10-8233-9420-7696
Might as well get through some of these today.
Alexander Price
If it's the last thing you need you have to divide your odds by 10. That's just basic desire math.
Brayden Richardson
Whoops Copy and pasted that, ignore the extra stuff.
Nolan Perry
>wanting to play with Sup Forums
Nathan Ortiz
Fuck you. I just posted and I'm the best. My manners are impeccable my style is impetuous.
Leo Cox
I played with Sup Forums before and it was good
Angel Campbell
>Wanting to play with people.
Julian Phillips
is the bait that your bait is literally saying something that's wrong
because that's meta, pretending to be retarded for further yous
Brayden Ortiz
I've never taken a statistics class but I've taken up to calculus 2 Sup Forums so help me out.
If odds of getting an item as a result is binary (aka you get it or you dont) then why aren't odds just 50% and your just super unlucky (in the case of monster Hunter where you supposedly have 5% chances for certain item drops). If I flip a coin three times the odds of getting heads is still 50% not 33.33% so if getting a reward is a result of binary actions I.e. you either have it or you dont, then why can't you assume that the odds of the receiving the item as 50%?
99.99% of the time, statistics seems like some arbitrary math that someone pulled out of their ass.
>Statistics are bullshit because sometimes the thing doesn't happen (exactly as the stats say) ????????????
Matthew Phillips
I thought the idea was that it never added up to the same 100% but different ones entirely. So destroying the claw is 17 out of its own 100 while capture was 23 out of its own 100. Or maybe that's all the same thing, never took statistics in school and my college math course was basically algebra.
Owen Thompson
If I made statistics 70% would be yes, 40-60 coinflip and under 40 no.
Jonathan Fisher
Yes of course it's their own is correct
Nathaniel Carter
they all eventually approach a collective 100%, but never reach it
Hunter Lewis
I'm no good at logic puzzles or statistics, can you dumb it down for me?
So it's initially 1/3 chance of choosing the car, right? And once the host picks the goat, assuming he always picks the goat and offers another choice. It's a 1/3 chance to pick the car if you stay put, but a 2/3 chance if you switch.
I don't really get how switching your answer would be better than staying put.
Jayden Powell
you're actually dumb enough to not go for obviously wrong answer first, that's pretty good
Daniel Perry
Is there any site I can go to to see all the weapons and armors? This game is easier than the other Monster Hunters I've played so I'd rather go for aesthetics than trying to minmax with skills.
I just kill a Monster 2-3 times and then use a save editor to give myself missing components or additional ones for a full armor set. I never go beyond what my current rank should be able to equip.
I know this will trigger most people but i don't care. Few monsters are worth fighting more than once.
Nolan Murphy
>Few monsters are worth fighting more than once. This is not the game for you
Austin Stewart
What? I admit I'm average intelligence at best, but what are talking about?
I get that your first choice is 1/3 chance because you chose out of 3 options, I think.
So why's the second unopened door a 2/3 chance? Because you're choosing out of 2 of the 3 doors, rather than the original 3 doors? Come on man help me understand, I'm actually trying to learn here.
Jacob Hill
So:
greater than or equal to 70 TRUE Greater than or equal to 40, less than or equal to 60 NewRoll(50) Less than 40 FALSE
I guess 60-70 is a void and 40-60 is an infinite loop. A++ you sure showed those nerds.
Jason Butler
Actually i enjoyed it greatly the way i played it.
Kevin Davis
>So why's the second unopened door a 2/3 chance? Because you have a 2/3 chance of currently being on a goat. Switching means to either: Switch off of car onto goat (1/3 chance of currently being on car) Switch off of goat onto car (2/3 chance of currently being on goat)
Jackson Green
Kill yourself immediately
It's because of one simple fact: The host knows what's behind each door
The goat door thing is indeed a greater chance when switching doors. You can simulate it to see for yourself.
Andrew Rogers
People who re happy and enjoy life and video games have no reason to kill themselves.
Colton Wood
End your life retard.
Sebastian Turner
You're a faggot who missed the true joy of MH.
kill yourself kys
Mason Smith
Oh okay, that makes sense. Thanks guys.
I should really try more of these things out.
Jackson Harris
You had a 16% chance of not getting the claw after all that. Think about it like this. Did you absolutely expect to get the claw from the quest itself? It was only 1% more likely than you not getting the claw at all. You shouldn't have gotten your hopes up just because there was a 70% in there.
Jace Morgan
I did it again and got 2 claws that time
Lucas Lewis
Look at it this way There are 3 possible worlds here (pic related): 1. You pick Goat 1, and switch to Car 2. You pick Goat 2 and switch to Car 3. You pick Car and switch to Goat Obviously this makes a 2/3 chance of switching from Goat to Car. Some people will confuse this by saying "there are 4 worlds because there's 2 goats you could switch to from car, so it's 2/4 or 50/50. This is false because both goats are the same binary lose state. It is completely irrelevant to the game "which goat" you land on, all that matters is "goat".
Justin Morris
>tfw no mhgenerations on vita
Hunter Edwards
>tfw no goat door on vita
Isaac Miller
Reminder that Tri was the worst MH.
If you liked water combat you have down's syndrome.
Lincoln Gomez
>that guy in the other thread saying SnS can't stun >aerial SnS with sleep >monster doesn't move the whole fight >mounted >stunned >slept >exhausted
Mad hammer faggot.
Charles Myers
shield bash stuns like crazy tho
Ryan Turner
I'm Lancer.
Wanter combat was literally perfectly fine.
It was probably even easier than on land.
Juan Cook
Yeah. ezpz.
The other guy understood no problem. Not the sharpest tool in the shed are you?
Joshua Murphy
You're struggling with reading again aren't you user
Isaiah Phillips
>posting this on every thread
Also why would you dev for a system thats been out for 4 years and has no consumers?
Jackson Brown
This. Each % probability is it's own entity meaning that each prerequisite has it's own chance of giving you an item. Think of it as a stack of percentages each triggering on it's own. 17% 17% 23% 70%
So overall your chances are still kinda low, which is why you break parts and capture so you have more chances even if each chance itself is relatively small.
Dylan Johnson
>that guy in the other thread saying SnS can't stun
Bentley Nelson
because I love my vita
Ian Cruz
>the game knows that you want/need something from X monster you'll never get it user
Dylan Clark
No you're just so blatantly retarded that you're trying to substitite MATH
Isaiah Cook
You're an hour late. Step it up!
Lincoln Murphy
>kill nakarkos 20 times >no heavy sphere
Gavin Miller
I'm probably smarter than math to be honest.
Dominic Anderson
>mfw Artian palico armor
This is fucking amazing
Austin Sanchez
>fight the soap fox during the 3* village Bulldrome quest >manage to kill it, and cut it's tail >get tail from carving and get plate in the reward box
Colton Wright
>just got 4 from 1 kill thank fuck I've had crazy luck getting gems and plates from my first kills on just about everything it's the damn desire sensor knowing I don't need that shit and fucking me on my heavy spheres
Aaron Hernandez
it doesnt stack you fucking idiot
Ian Clark
That would imply only the highest chance counts which is wrong
Isaac Roberts
you have 17% chance of getting the claw from the quest 17% chance of getting ANOTHER CLAW from the subquest you can get 4 claws in total with all the objectives, not a 127% chance of getting 1 claw
Thomas Baker
Correct, but you worded it wrong in the post before
Evan Perez
>Thinking all those odds mean SHIT in a monhun game Desire Sensor(TM) is a tricky thing.
Chase Kelly
>first rath fight >shiny drop is a plate >first true tama fight >shiny drop is a plate ngh yes
Caleb Gutierrez
88.16% chance of one or more claws from one hunt.
In short, a 11.83% chance of complete failure to acquire claws from the hunt.
Jaxon Ramirez
The worst part in all of this is that Nakarkos fights are fucking tedious. You can run the perfect fight (i.e. throw bombs when applicable, use a fuckton of ballista, wreck its face when it shows up) and you'll still finish at around 20 minutes.
Personally, my fastest time with Nakarkos is the same as my fastest time with two Furious Rajangs, which is fucking stupid.
Asher Myers
It's probably not the best way to go about it, but keep this in mind:
One from breaks Two from capture One from subquest Three from main quest
This is the guaranteed absolute minimum. Subquest and mainquest have additional chances for more slots, but they're not guaranteed by any means, so always calculate from the bare minimum.
This is probably not the best way to go about it, but add all of those chances together, then divide by the number of chances. Now, take that chance value and run it through [[ stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx ]] as a decimal, while putting in the number of chances as number of trials, and number of successes as 1. You don't need to put the whole chance number in, personally I just use the first four numbers.
The values you want to know are < and _>_. In this example, < means basically 0 as it is less than one, while _>_ means one or more. Feel free to look at the others, though.
Essentially, these are the absolute minimum chance numbers. In truth, your probability for one or more will likely be a little bit higher because of additional chances not being calculated in, while your probability for none at all will likely be a little lower, but I like to go by minimum chance because then I have my standards set for something a little worse a case than is likely to actually occur.
Asher Collins
nah im with you bro, the game is called monster hunter not rng grinder
Ethan Gomez
If anyone ever wondered how the FATE skill works, it's like this.
Main quest rewards A and B (Rows 1 and 2) are always guaranteed three rewards from their individual pools. After that, it's a 69% chance for a fourth, a 69% chance for a fifth IF you get the fourth, and so on. Essentially the chance of getting more becomes smaller and smaller with each slot, to a maximum of eight for each row.
For subquests however, it's one guaranteed, and up to four maximum. Also a 69% chance.
What happens when you have Good Luck? That chance for each individual slot is boosted up to 81%. Great Luck is 90% Bad Luck is 50% and Horrible Luck is 25%.
It is in your best interest to get Good Luck at very least if you're hardcore farming.
