Akane does not understand the Gambler's Fallacy

Akane does not understand the Gambler's Fallacy.

you do not understand the gambler's fallacy

But this universes version of you only threw it once, you dumb slut

The odds don't improve every time you roll. It's 1/216 every time, no matter how many times you roll.

morphogenetic odds

Oh yeah?
I'm gambling for a 3

Your gamble has failed you. This 1 will save you

>3
Give me my 3 you bastard

each time is 1/216 but the chance of one of three 1/216 rolls working out is higher than 1/216, although it's less than 1/72

If anyone's curious, the odds don't get any better if you're throwing 3 2-sided dice alongside 3 3-sided dice. This is called Monty Hall.

I don't like where this thread is heading

Who were best characters and why was it Carlos and Eric?

>"h-hi Junpei, w-welcome home..." Akane submissively whimpered upon Junpei's return to their house
>"I-I'm sorry honey b-but I burnt the casserole a-again, please don't be angr-"
>"That's fucking it, this is the LAST fucking straw Akane!" Junpei screamed, slamming Akane's face into the counter
>"YOU USELESS WHORE, YOU CAN'T EVEN FUCKING COOK AFTER ALL THE MONEY I WASTED ON COOKING CLASSES AND THIS FUCKING COOKWARE" *Junpei starts throwing pots and pans around*
>"J-Junpei, I'm s-sorry..."
>You're SORRY? You're fucking SORRY? You're goddamned right you're sorry you useless cunt!" Junpei screamed
>"I work hard all fucking night at Crash Keys and then I have to come home to another fucking burnt meal, what the fuck CAN you do? Can you suck dick? NO YOU CAN'T EVEN SUCK DICK RIGHT YOU USELESS SLUT" Junpei said
>grabbing Akane by the throat he began to choke while screaming obscenities
>"I'm *gargle* s--sor--*gasp* ry J-Jumpy" Akane struggled to say
>"DON'T YOU FUCKING JUMPY ME BITCH! I'LL MAKE YOU SORRY!" Junpei slams Akane's face in the still piping hot casserole, she screams and collapses on the floor in agony
>"I'm going to the bar with Seven, when I get back you BETTER HAVE THIS FUCKING MESS CLEANED UP AND A PROPER FUCKING MEAL PREPARED FOR ME OR SO HELP ME GOD NOT EVEN THE MORPHOGENETIC FIELD WILL BE ABLE TO BRING YOU BACK WHEN I'M DONE WITH YOU!" Junpei slams the door
>Akane trembles in a stew of blood and charred casserole on the floor
>"H-he loves me, I should've done a better job for him" she thought as she pulled herself up and began cleaning and preparing another meal

3/216 = 1/72

Retard

The odds if thrown 3 times are 1/216 +1/216 + 1/216 = 3/216, simplified is 1/72. the girl in the OP is correct. ( it should be expressed through ratios, but whatever)

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What, so if I throw the dice 216 times, I will surely get the outcome I want?

That's not how probability works.

Looking at wikipedia for 10 seconds, I can tell you that this is not the gamblers fallacy.
But have a meme for your time.

3+5+1+8+5+1+4+1+4 = 32
3+2 = 5
Get out Junpei

>it should be expressed through ratios

Her math is correct but the reason why she thinks he threw 3 times is stupid

If you flip a coin twice, you're not guaranteed to get tails.
1/2 + 1/2 does not equal 2/2

The outcome of heads > heads still has a 25% chance of happening.

Yes but an outcome of a single heads goes from 50% to 75% and if you keep on increasing the tosses tends to 100%

This is simple fucking math

No?
Every new attempt is still 50% chance.

Although highly unlikely, you could still get tails 20 times in a row.

The dice problem here doesn't matter how many times you roll. Each roll will be 1/216. A highly unlikely number.

No. Each flip is still 50/50.

if i just had to press A to advance dialogue the game wouldnt feel half as shit to play

How many times do I have to keep yelling about ratios?

You would expect to however. If you were to roll this weird ass 216 sided die 216*X, where x is a really huge number, you would expect the number of times you got each of those 216 results to be close to x, being closer to x the larger x is (no i don't know what this is from, i just saw probability stuff)

Is this some sort of meta bait going on

Are we all pretending we didnt pass third grade math, is that a hip thing to do now

The odds of each attempt are the same, but if the goal is to get the desired result one time, more attempts means higher chance of success. And unlimited attempts means your odds are pretty much 1.

I'm the OP and I just figured out why I'm stupid.

But the chance of you rolling a single 50/50 is higher if you roll for it 3 times

Seek some sort of basic probability course

Well actually, x doesn't have to be really big, that was just a remnant of how I originally structured what I was saying. If you have some event with a probability of P and you do it N times, then NP is the number of times you would expect said event to occur, the larger N the closer to the 'ideal' it would be

It's a matter of chances, the person that flips a coin 3 times CLEARLY has a better chance of getting heads than the one that flips it once.

>two and a half months later
>dozens of watches are shipped to one random dude's house
ayy

The probability that you suck dicks is 100 percent, faggot.

what a lucky mofo

A good response to getting told why you are wrong

I haven't played this game so I'm not sure if I'm understanding this right, but if you want to know the probability of winning at least once while repeating a 1/216 chance three times, you would just do 1 - the probability of losing three times consecutively.
So it would be
1 - (215/216)^3

ITT: Non SHITTers worrying about math.

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>pre-release threads full of people who don't understand the Monty Hall problem
>post-release thread about people who don't understand the Gambler's Fallacy
have we come full circle?

Two Thirds.
Three of the four sides of coins she has are heads, and two of those heads are on Seven's coin.

Also >Eric >She

It's difficult to boil the reason down to one word.

>She has two coins in her pocket
>She takes one

That's all you need to know, it was 50%

>knew switching boosted my odds to 9/10
>still lost after switching
Fuck you, Zero.

I still don't understand the goat and the door problem

Why is it a higher probability if you change the door?

Isn't the answer 1 - (215/216) ^ 3, or about a 1.4% chance?

Are you talking about the Gas Mask one?

If you've got 10 doors and you pick one of them, the chances of you guessing the right one are 1/10. The chances of the right one being in another door are 9/10. So once all of the other doors open and you're left with only two choices, the chances of the mask being in yours is still 1/10, but it has a 9/10 chance of being in the other door.

It's like someone took all the words from the right answer and then rearranged them to be retarded.

because you start with 1/3 of chance
if you change with 2 doors left you had 1/2 chance
so increased odds if you switch
no reason not to unless you have some other knowledge

>If you've got 10 doors and you pick one of them, the chances of you guessing the right one are 1/10. The chances of the right one being in another door are 9/10. So once all of the other doors open and you're left with only two choices, the chances of the mask being in yours is still 1/10, but it has a 9/10 chance of being in the other door.
>>>
> Anonymous 09/14/16(Wed)22:10:05 No.351860076 ▶
>
>It's like someone took all the words from the right answer and then rearranged them to be retarded.

Imagine it as 100 doors instead of 3.
Behind 99 of them are bad things. But behind 1 of them is a good thing.
Let's say you open a door. Then, all the other doors open except the one that contains the good thing. The only exception to this is if you initially picked the door with the good thing, in which case one of the bad doors would not open.
So, think about it this way: When you pick a bad door and then switch, you are guaranteed to pick the good door. Alternatively, if you pick the good door, you will always switch to a bad one.
So, what're the odds of picking a bad door initially? 99/100. But since you picked a bad door, switching will give you the good door. Therefore, if you always switch, there's a 99/100 chance you will end on the good door.
I hope that helps.

It's simple. You're effectively either picking your initial door (which you chose at a 1/3 chance), or you're picking BOTH of the other doors, because Monty knows perfectly well where the car is and will never show it to you.

this is wrong

>Monty knows perfectly well where the car is and will never show it to you.
This is the most most important art of the problem.

>part
FUCK

>Trying to get the bad ending
>Accidentally get the good result twice in a row

It's the reason why you always take the swap in Deal or No Deal.

>That's all you need to know

false.

4 things are possible with no assumptions, but
only 3 things are possible if we assume (as we must) that she flipped heads.
2 of those 3 possibilities imply that she picked the rigged coin.

● pick rigged coin, flip heads 1
● pick rigged coin, flip heads 2
○ pick fair coin, flip heads
× pick fair coin, flip tails

so the probability is 2p / (1 + p), where p is the initial probability of choosing the rigged coin (probably assumed to be 1/2). this isn't always intuitive, but it's how probability as we've defined it works.

Well, now that ZE and its threads are officially dead, what are you up to now?

I've been watching DR3 and playing AA6.
They're helping mend the massive disappointment ZTD gave me.

Played through Mother Russia Bleeds, not much else.
I still check for threads daily to see if the 999 remaster's been announced.

>ZTD Akane
>Good

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Fuck both of you and check this 5

You're never getting through that door, m8

FUCK

Alane is my wife!

And Ckover is my wife!

>Alane

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Understand now? This is my power.

but what about the quantum computer and the teleporter?

What quantum computer and teleporter? I'm sure if you were to search this bunker at this time you would find no such things.

TWO CARLOS meme still strong?

Really? Can we check?

My damn brat can't possibly keep bullshitting me!

No you dumbass, each time you roll the die, the chance that you don't get what you need goes down. The first time is 1/216, yeah, which means you have a 99.537% chance of not getting what you need. But do it again, and you have a 99.076% chance of not getting what you need. Do it a third time, and you have a 98.618% chance of not getting what you need, i.e. a 1.382% chance to get what you need, which is roughly a 1 in 72 chance.

The idea is, the more chances you have to achieve something, the more likely you'll get what you need to achieve. If you only have 3 chances to roll, your chance is low, but if you have 1000 chances to roll, you'll probably get what you need.

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No

Phi is not cute!

Phi is hot

She does have a nice ash

>there exists a UNIVERSE where ZTD didn't release and everyone learned to be content with just VLR

Why do we have to suffer through this BAD END?

Gave me the perfect resolution. The 2nd Carlos plothole is fixed by having Eric kill him in every other timeline he isn't needed.

Operation Bluebird, nigga