How smart is Sup Forums?

how smart is Sup Forums?

Answer is 2/3

Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox
youtu.be/0u7Sj0PDV5I
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

>it's an user uses a problem with extra useless data dilemma that eventually causes people to take that into account too

it's 50%

only 2 boxes have gold balls in them and you already pulled out a gold ball so just forget about the double silver box

the only 2 boxes that remain have 2 gold and 1 gold and you already have 1 gold in your hand so the box either contains 1 gold or 1 silver
that's a 1:1 1 to 1 ratio or 50%

...

i can tell you're an amerifat because you're a fucking idiot

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

But there was a 2/3 chance that the gold ball you pulled was from the box with 2 gold balls

The probability doesn't change after you pick the first one, because you pick the same one anyways

haha i fucking got you haha lol hehe
you thought i was serious but it was a jest hehe hoo hoo you have fallen for my ruse

This. since you can't change boxes, the question could also be rephrased as
>Which box did you pick (that time you got the gold ball)?
And there are 3 answers- box 1, box 1, box 2

box 1 is the only one that satisfies the problem of getting another golden ball, so it becomes 2 out of 3

>hypotheticals
>probability
I’m coming up with thirty-two point three three uh, repeating of course, percentage, of survival.

50%
If you took a gold ball it's from one of the two boxes with gold in it

>actually made this tie into a vidya reference
fucking off yourself

Which gold ball of the THREE was it, then?
Which of the 2 possible boxes did you pick, then?

If you pull out the gold ball its likelier that it was from he box with 2 gold balls, since the odds of pulling the gold ball from the other box is 1/2 and the odds of pulling a gold ball from the other is 100%.

bitch what? there's two balls left, one of which is in my box

>innit
it's not, Karl, you fucking idiot

lol NERD

This is just a redressing of the Monty Hall problem. 50% is not the answer, 66% is and if you think otherwise you're dumb.

100% because I always come first

it's not the same though

bitch what? don't ever gamble, you fucking idiot

let me rephrase this for americans:

>After being told that the box you picked contained at least 1 gold ball, determine what are the odds that the box you picked is Box 1.

(since 1 is the only one that will let you have a 2nd golden ball)

let's see here
50%?

It's not, but the probability distributes the same.

The odds of you getting the box that has the gold/silver ball mix is 1/3, and that's divided up even further if you consider that even after that the odds of you pulling out the gold ball rather than the silver ball is 50/50. So the odds are stacked severely against the next ball being the silver ball, and instead, it's highly likely that you've reached into the box with two gold balls.

how did you arrive at that?

don't worry, when Trump ends common core, everything will be OK again

>two (2) boxes have golden balls
>"what are the odds my box is one of them?"
Hmm.

The probability is either 100% or 0% depending on if we are in the universe where you picked box one or the one where you picked box 2.

It's the exact same problem, pretty much, right down to the useless door revealed to have a goat and the useless box with 2 silvers

There's another universe where you picked box 1 but took the other gold ball

Problem solving is not an indication of intelligence

Right, pattern recognition is.

then what is?

Say you've drawn a gold ball. What's the probability it's from the GG box versus the GS box? Enumerate the scenarios:

S1: It's the first gold ball from the two gold ball box
S2: It's the second gold ball from the two gold ball box
S3: It's the only gold ball from the box with one gold and one silver ball

2/3 scenarios have you drawing from the GG box, so the probability that your chosen box is the GG box is 2/3. Since you have a 2/3 chance of just having taken a ball from the GG box, that means you have a 2/3 chance of drawing another gold ball from whatever box you just drew the gold ball from.

That's why I said it's Monty Hall redressed. Same distribution with a slightly different variable at play and a different way of asking the same question.

Questions like these aren't actual math, but rather philosophy.

Tge third box doesn't have a gold ball, so itcs irrelevant. Since it'sbeen determined that it's one of only two boxes, and one must have a gold ball left while other has a silver ball left, chances are 50%.

actually smart people don't waste their time thinking about such stupid and pointless problems

this is why education was a mistake

I thought it would be 2/3 for a second, but it's a 50/50 whether you took from the 2 gold or the 1 gold box.
If you took a gold ball from one of the boxes, there's a 50/50 chance of the second ball being either gold or silver on the basis that you have a gold ball in your hand.

I get that from a mathematical perspective, 66% is correct, but from a practical perspective, it's either box 1 you have, or box 2. That's 50%, which ball you have from box 1 (if you have it) is irrelevant.

Smart people go and apply these to real life and make millions playing poker or blackjack

stupid people do not apply these when playing

My answer is, who fucking cares?
Not vidya.

again, smart people don't fucking gamble to try and make a living
were you raised by niggers?

It's not the same problem. It just has the same probability of 2/3rds. Every problem with an answer of P = 2/3 isn't immediately the Monty Hall problem.

What's the analogous part to choosing whether or not to switch doors?

I still hate the monty hall problem as the whole thing is rendered moot by the fact that you KNOW the host is going to reveal one of the fake doors after your selection, meaning that the whole affair was 50% all along. Probability doesn't magically change the moment a door is opened, that's as stupid as thinking overall probability is relevant to an individual outcome.

The number of the gold ball you drew is irrelevant, what matters is that you have a gold ball, so you either took it from the GG box or the GS box. Which is a 50% chance of you pulling another gold ball.

The boxes don't matter you fucking retards
There's 3 golden balls and 1 silver so the chance is 2/3
The question is not what chance you had to pick a box with two golden balls but what chance you have to take another one out after pulling one

you're wrong. we could run a simulation, or make a real-life test of this thousands of times, and the amount of time you get gold would be very approximate to 2/3

it's not gambling if you know what you're doing, you fucking nigger
do you think the stock market is gambling too?

switching boxes to get a 2nd gold ball, i guess

the whole affair was 50 if you planned on switching from the start. thats the "trick" of the monty hall problem. its 33 if you dont switch, 50 if you do

It's not. That's the same faulty logic of when someone says "it's either true or false, that means it's 50/50". Just because there are two options doesn't immediately make the probability 50%. One answer is more likely than the other. Here's a stupid example: let's say I pick a person at random and you guess whether I picked a male or female. 50/50, right? Now what if I say I went into the women's restroom and picked a person at random. Still 50/50?

You're right that you either just picked box 1 or box 2. But you're twice as likely to have picked box 1 as you are to have picked box 2. That's why it's 66%.

????????????????

there're 3 silver balls you colorblind fucking retard, holy shit please remember to turn on your monitor

its 50% you retards.

There's even an explanation of monty for retards
If there's one million doors and the host opens all but two after you pick one, the chance that you picked the right one is still one in a million but another one has 999999/1000000

this is one of the most basic WRONG ways of looking at the monty hall problem, which i used to do as well. the argument is that the prize and goat locations don't reshuffle after picking once, but that is simply not the point

if it's such a famous problem with such a famous controversial but widely accepted nowadays answer that has been pondered for years by mathematicians, you might come to the conclusion that they are right

>poker
>blackjack
>not gambling
I'll toss you a quarter on the street when I go by, Tyrone

No, see .

There are two possibilities as to which box you just drew from, but each possibility isn't equally likely to be true.

lol you must be pretending

50%.
Dual silver box is irrelevant because you're using the same box and already got 1 got. Since there are only 2 boxes with at least 1 gold you have 2 equal options.

Interesting. I already knew about the monty hall problem, I shouldn't have been fooled into thinking it was 50% in this scenario.

I can't believe there are people still arguing ITT that it is 50%, just read this you retards.

are you retarded?
it doesn't matter WHICH gold ball you are getting.
what matters is IF you are getting another.

the choice is made once you pick either box 1 or 2. hence 50%

the most fun thing you can do in these threads is act like an abrasive retard

also there are 3 silver balls you mong

I mean, you gotta be trolling, right? Do you not understand the concept of probability? Do you not understand why people get banned from blackjack tables at casinos if they're winning for too long?

Do you not understand hand probabilities in poker?

Threads like this are why people think Japanese RNG is a thing

Yes, and IF you are getting another depends on WHICH gold ball you picked. IF you picked the gold ball from the GS box, which was a 1/3rd chance, you're getting an S. IF you picked the gold ball from the GG box, which was a 2/3rds chance, you're getting a G.

See, I can capitalize words too.

what is japanese rng

Being twice as likely to have picked 1 over 2 is, once again, irrelevant. It's just like the Monty Hall problem: mathematically correct, practically flawed.

100% or 0%. If the balls weight the same and you pull out Gold ball, its 100%. If they have difference in weight and you pull out Gold ball, its 0%. But if you pull out Silver ball from the mix box, you can avoid pulling again, since you HAVE to pull Gold ball. And if you chose the Silver ball box, nothing happens, since we're looking for Golden balls.

Known 100% or 0%, or gaming it to 100%.

WHERE ARE THE FUCKING VIDEO GAMES
ARE
THE
FUCKING
VIDEO
GAMES

Can /sci/ just fuck off?

This isn't even video games

If you use Baye's Theorum you'll see that OP is right.

It literally is math

VIDEO
GAMES

Here's a little bit of perspective.

There are 1 million boxes. Each box contains 2 balls. One box contains 2 silver balls, another box contains 1 silver ball and 1 gold ball and the final 999998 boxes contain 2 gold balls.

You pick 999998 boxes at random. You put your hand in and take a ball from each box. All have a gold ball. What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold?

>There are two possibilities as to which box you just drew from, but each possibility isn't equally likely to be true.
How the fuck does that make sense? You have a ball from one of two boxes, that's all that matters, if you go for another ball, it has a 50/50 chance of being gold or silver.

100% chance because I would be able to tell the difference between the gold and silver ball by weight, even without seeing them

>How the fuck does that make sense?

Because one box has two fucking gold balls and the other only has one. You, observing, only know that you picked a gold ball, and you know the aforementioned stated fact.

Think of it like this. You go outside, and there's a bunch of niggers everywhere. Are you equally as likely to be in Zimbabwe as you are to be in fucking Japan?

Following this logic if box 2 had 10 gold balls and box 2 still had 1G&1S balls, you would say that you are 90% sure that you hit the jackpot

>See, I can capitalize words too.
doesn't make your logic LESS retarded kid

To add to this, it doesn't really matter how many boxes there are. The chances of picking a gold balls is 50% if only one of the 2 boxes left have a gold ball. Adding a trillion gorrillion other boxes in the beginning will not magically increase your chances of getting the fucking gold ball above 50%.

Actually it'd be 10/11

do you understand how to get a sustainable job and contribute to society?

You're an idiot. That doesn't change it because you've only changed the number of balls in the box.

This is more accurate

It's philosophical because it's where probability decouples with logical thinking. If you have a gold ball, there's only two possible boxes you have, 50%. But it's one of 3 possible outcomes using the current data set, 66%.

>from a practical perspective

What the fuck is that supposed to mean, "from a practical perspective"? You realize mathematical probability is supposed to be applied practically? You realize you can run this through a program and get 2/3? You realize you can do the test itself and the answer will be 2/3? You realize that it's been done before, and the answer is 2/3?

ok, you american peasants, let's look at all of the possibilities

There is a condition "The box you picked contains at least 1 gold ball"
The possibilities that satisfy this are:
>Picked box 1 and drew gold ball A
>Picked box 1 and drew gold ball B
>Picked box 2 and drew gold ball C

naturally, if you picked box 2, you already lost since the other ball is a silver one, while if you picked box 1 (which there is a 2/3 chance of getting assuming you satisfy the condition of getting at least 1 golden ball), there is a certainty of obtaining another golden ball

TWO THIRDS

TRUMP PLEASE END COMMON CORE

You have no clue what you're talking about. You don't actually know anything about logical thinking, and have never taken a class on probability. Teachers use this very problem to teach the fundamental absolute basics of probability.

YES IT WILL because the first golden ball you draw can be ANY ONE of the trillion gorillion

>mathematically correct, practically flawed

This makes no sense. It's correct period. There's nothing flawed about it.

Let's say there are three decks of 52 cards. One is a standard 52 card deck, one has a Joker in place of the Ace of Spades, and one is a trick deck with all Ace of Spades. You shuffle each one face down, then you pick one deck and draw one card at random. It's the Ace of Spades. What's the probability you just drew from the trick deck?

Let's say I want to make a bet. If it's the trick deck you win, if it's the standard deck I win. What's more likely? That you just drew the 1 Ace of Spades out of 52 different cards from the standard deck, or that you drew an Ace of Spades from the trick deck?

It matters that the "trick deck" box has all gold balls in it, mathematically and practically.

...

never tell me the odds

>People who get 2/3 use the nomber of ball.
>People who get 1/2 use the nomber of box.

>common core

See this:

>naturally, if you picked box 2, you already lost
>while if you picked box 1 there is a certainty of obtaining another golden ball
That's what a 50% chance is, user.

Why are you labeling the gold balls?
You picked a gold ball from a box.
Therefore you picked a gold ball from box GG or box GS.

youtu.be/0u7Sj0PDV5I
stop saying RNG you fucking autists
it's called luck

66%

There are 6 possible outcomes for picking the first ball. 3 of them are eliminated because they aren't gold first. Leaving 3 left, 2 are guaranteed to be gold and 1 is guaranteed to be silver. Average them out and it's a 2 in 3 chance.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

Kill yourself, you are mentally defective.

>Because one box has two fucking gold balls
That doesn't fucking matter, if you have a golden ball, there exist only two possibilities when you go for another ball, another gold one and a silver one

You just listed only two possibilities there. One where you get a gold, and one where you get a silver. How can you say one is more likely than the other?

L M A O
go contribute to your 401k you pussy ass nigga

literally do you even understand what "investment", "risk" "probability" and "profit" are or are you just worried about that paycheck from the boss?

Alright then retard, go buy a lottery ticket. Hey, there's only two possibilities, you either win or lose, right?

Wrong, because I'm not the only one participating.

>he lists three possibilities
>you count two somehow

Well let's see you're either clinically retarded or not clinically retarded. That's two possibilities so I guess there is a 50% chance you're clinically retarded.

It's a shitty paradox. Just like that one with the doors.

50% is the right answer.

I don't even see how you got to that from what you said previously.