What are the chances actually that it could actually fail . Serious analysis appreciated

What are the chances actually that it could actually fail . Serious analysis appreciated

100%

0%

55%

I don't know

It's tough to know without knowing what Nintendo's internal projections for "success" are. I'm not particularly optimistic nor personally interested in it, though.

E3 will give you the answer. We'll know then.

If they actually market it it'll probably have a decent run. Better than the Wii U did but I can't really see it being a big threat to its competitors.
Provided Nintendo handheld games are put on it and aren't being shafted to mobile release for life like I fear some of them are.

It will be the biggest gaming console in Japan, but i think it will kind of bomb in the west.

With a mainline Zelda game as a launch titled REGARDLESS of it being on the Wii U it's sure to kick the launch sale numbers up above the Wii U's.
I'm just gonna say that, there's no packaged game with the Switch however there are a lot of nostalgia wanking, rich millennials out there.

at best l see it doing half 3ds numbers

35 million unit sold at the end of it's life.

I don't like the switch from what I see. But I can see a lot of people being interested in it (especially the more casual audiences)

sorry for the garbled sentence

In my opinion it has a chance of massive success. Considering it's the most powerful handheld with console level rendering It could seriously take back the mobile market from smartphones as well as the core gamer market that is loyal to nintendo. The only questionable area is the so called "hardcore"gamers on the other consoles. I think Nintendo needs to push possible competitive play . I think overall it could eclipse the wii sales

It's already sold out online so that should say something

it doesn't though

member when wii u preorders were sold out online?

oh I member.

I wouldn't say it will be a "massive" success but it will do respectably with people who wrote the Wii U off, provided there's units to purchase.

The fact that it's not called a Wii or DS will make it a moderate success.

It's very clear that it is a completely new system, and Nintendo just needs to keep marketing it as such. The Switch has it's own identity, and a nice jingle(the snap).
It's also a bright, eye-catching red compared to the Wii U's white color scheme.

Im not sure people I know who haven't owned new consoles in 10-15 years really want it, but most people who actually play games more recently don't really give a shit about it.

I'm not sure if its just those people see switch as a gateway to get back into games or if they're somehow the target demographic. This is like the fanbase that hasn't played a nintendo console since 64 to put this into perspective.

Just like the Wii U.

This amount of delusion is life threatening.

I want the Switch to be successful, I really do. Fucking hell just imagining myself laying bed, playing BOTW in my hands like that makes my dick diamonds.

But I won't hold my breath. Really hope Nintendo blows it out of the park with this one.

Its literally sold 3 times the ammount that the Wii U did when its preorders went up.

Gonna be successful just like the Wii U. Can't wait!

The Switch is Nintendo's soft reboot. From here on, every Nintendo system uses the same OS, store, and infrastructure. They'll release other systems that are dedicated consoles, handhelds, etc., but will still operate the same way.

Think ios itunes/app store, and the idevices.

Gove it a year and we'll get a dedicated console that's literally a switch minus portability plus better specs. Give it a few years and we get a Switch 2, etc. Downside is that we move away from "gens" and more towards iterative hardware like smartphone manufacturers do, but the plus side is that you're keeping all your games from now on.

Less likely than the Vita for sure.

the difference is the Switch isn't being sold at a loss like the Wii U, every pre-order is profit even without the games, paid online, accessories etc

they don't plan on it selling 100 million units, they're just going maximize profits on every single Switch they sell

If we can actually just redownload our VC games without paying an arbitrary $1 fee to "upgrade", perhaps I might forgive Nintendo a bit.

It only slightly made sense going from Wii to Wii U.

But Wii U to Switch is barely a difference in features.

I think it will be successful but idk why they pushed it out so quickly. They don't have a large launch line up but would have had an alright line up if we add everything between now and end of year. Also there was some talk about them maybe having a better nvidia card if they pushed launch back another 6ish months but I don't know if that was confirmed.

its already sold out everywhere

I think they wanted to get it out on the market ASAP and have Zelda as a launch title like with the Wii and Twilight Princess

>Serious analysis appreciated

you've come to the wrong place then

>make 5 systems
>they all sell out
>HOLY SHIT THE SWITCH IS SELLING LIKE HOTCAKES!!!!
Reminds me of when nintendrones insisted #FE wouldn't be a massive bomb in the west because 3 collector's editions were sold out on amazon LMAO

Gonna be far more successful than the Wii U, more likely.

>It could seriously take back the mobile market from smartphones
Hahahahahaha. Jesus christ, please go outside and interact with other people.

Just wish we didn't have to deal with 900p30fps meme. Its not super important to me, even as someone with a 144 monitor for my pc, but damn people are going to give this crap.

I don't know about chances. The vidya industry has become a gambling game nowadays and pretty much everything that isn't ultra retarded has a chance.

The Nintendo alternative seems to be focused on its tipical market: Nintendo fans and hipsters. It still alienates all the CoD kiddies and regular nerds as it insist with motion controls and low power capabilities for reasons.

Only time will tell.

The launch lineup is inexcusable with how dead Wii U has been for years now. It's a really big red flag.

I think it's accurate on the overall marketing scheme. They don't want to compete, just bring unique games and some 3th paries to the mix without worring about what Sony and MS are doing.

I don't know what Switch is carrying over from Wii U, in terms of infrastructure. Reggie said a "we'll comment on it later" remark to Wired when they asked if we really need to pay to carry over old shit.

It may very well carry over, since it'd presumably use Nintendo Network IDs. But I'm positive this is the start of Nintendo focusing on systems as a means to a "service" rather a whole new generation/ecosystem.

they're spacing the releases out like they've done since the 1980s, sorry if it's your first console launch but they were never going to give you Mario and Zelda together at launch

I don't know what that has to do with what I said. Their current system is completely dead and has been for years, yet they hardly have anything ready for launch. I don't know how anyone can look at that positively or think its some kind of overarching strategy.

It's genuine bewilderment at what they've been doing for the past two years.

>thirth

Pretty big. None of my game friends are interested in it, because to them, it's just a Nintendo brand tablet, and every normie has one of those already.

Nintendo fucked up. All they literally had to do was make a system more powerful than PS4 Pro, announce that they're making a Mario, and try to get 3rd party developers on board. It would've sold like hot cakes. But no, Nintendo is being gimmicky retards again.

Considering main line Pokemon is likely to move to it, it won't flop. It needs more games to be a big success, though.

Yeah, It's an opinion. Maybe a concept you are not familiarized with on your black and white world of absolute truths over the Internet.

they've been working on the Switch and Zelda, the Wii was dead for like 2 years before the Wii U came out as well

Yeah, I agree with you but take a look at the inmediate launch titles and the current anounced releases. Nippon games, 2 western games, no 3th party western exclusives so far, Mario, MK, Splatoon and Zelda.

That is what Nintendo has been offering since the Wii minus the shovelware.

I don't see how that reasoning holds up when the system they currently have on the market has been literally dead for years now. When Sega axed the Saturn after ~3 years, they stacked the Dreamcast launch. Nintendo doesn't even have a port of Mario Kart ready.

user did you click on the wrong numbers

wait its not hd or 60fps? seriously?

It will not "fail" if by fail we mean something like WiiU or Ouya.

Pokemon guaraneets it.

Unless Nintendo is trolling everybody and there will be 4DS

This honestly.
In the end what determines if it fails isnt the sale numbers, game library, or anything other than how much profit they make of this thing.

the Wii U is getting a new Zelda game in a couple of months it isn't dead

>Wii was dead for like 2 years before the Wii U came out as well
You're making my point for me. It's a big red flag.

Pokemon owes its success to being a cheap game on a cheap, portable console. The switch has literally none of this.

Switch will sell in Japan and tank everywhere else.
Like less than million units moved.
As a result Nintendo will remove itself from the international markets.

It can fail if they announce paid online… ou wait

It won't be as big as the Wii but it definitely won't be a complete failure like the Wii U. People are actually talking about it this time around, preorders are nuts, and they're still riding the gotta-have-it frenzy of the NES Classic.

It helps that they're actually marketing it this time around, and there's really nothing else going on in the industry to drag attention away from it from now until launch. It will probably start a bit slow just because of the weak launch lineup (parents and little kids aren't going to be sold on Zelda, they need Mario and Pokemon for that), pick up momentum with Splatoon 2, and be totally crazy by the holiday season with SMO.

Unconfirmed as of yet and its only certain games. MK8D for example is 1080 60. Zelda is anyones guess as youll hear different things from everyone you ask. Some say 1080 60 downscalded to 720 30 when portable. Some say native 900 upscaled to 1080 when docked but always 60 some say 900 30.

who is this cum eater?

I assume Pogemonz will arrive with a price cut.

So far with that price and line up Switch is DOA, seriously.

>4DS
>Literally see through time
Id buy it.

Iris - FFXV

I'm gonna bet that it'll do better than the Wii U, but only minorly. Anything more than 20 million sales would surprise me. Nintendo really fucked up on their whole presentation for the system, and all my friends who I talked to about it really weren't impressed

Pretty likely that it won't grab the market Nintendo wants. The launch price is too anti-consumer. For a console that could turn out exactly like the WiiU, they should consider selling at a fucking loss for once to garner a larger market.

Nintendo is fucking mad if they think they're the "Apple" of video game companies.

Very high with their current plans. Seriously, bullshit and hyperbole aside they've fucked up.

>public/media perception was bad
>shareholder/investor reactions were bad
>casual gamer perception was 50/50 as far as i can tell (their intended target with this)
>Their old core are PISSED (me included, 25 years+ buying their shit) that they went the weak hardware/gimmick special snowflake route again
>everyones pissed at paid online aside a few corporate leeches that suck the blood from Nintendo's gooch
>everyones pissed at the controller prices, the charger not being included, a pro controller not being included, how weak the platform is.

They tried to market to Consoles and portables at the same time, and managed to fuck both up before even launching the shit. Anyone thats going to want a console is going to go for the platforms that are cheaper, MORE POWERFUL, and that have cheaper controllers and an already established line of games. Those are the Xbone and PS4

Anyone that wants a handheld/portable already is using a smartphone or something. They still have a chance though at dredging out the handheld market as those idiots seem to have expendable money i.e. morons who spend $500 on a fucking PHONE.

If I was them, I'd not even put it into production as it is and instead redesign the shit to be portable only, give up on the TV aspect, and market the fuck out of it as such. EVER Marketing this as a console is a fucking HUUUGE mistake, especially between generations.

Fail is a big word, but I don't think it will be a success either.
The Switch has a few advantages:

>Nintendo first party games
>Pokemon
>MH
>Yokai watch
>"Novelty" in terms of being a hybrid console
>Actually the most powerful "handheld" on the market so far
>Gimmicks always attract the casual crowd meaning quick and easy bucks
>Brand name recognition

However, consider these:

>Under the looming shadow of the Wii U, the actual blunder of the century
>Actual third party support is uncertain
>Terrible hardware design makes it prone to malfunction and fast wear, this might piss off many people
>Can't even remotely compete with the other platforms in terms of power
>Might be too gimmicky for its own good
>Might suffer Vita's fate in that people would prefer those games to be on a "real console"
>Overpriced

I doubt that it will be a Wii U tier blunder, but I am very dubious it will be the tremendous success many people on Sup Forums want, I mean, it eventually will have pokemon and MH, even though nintendo said the 3DS and Switch won't compete with each other, and that is already a huge safety net, but even so, I don't think the console itself will sell all that well.

I have one prediction which I'm almost certain it will happen, they'll slash the price very early on like they did with the 3DS, they absolutely cannot afford that price when a PS4 sells for less and has many more games, better specs and all that.

I think the presentation failed at marketing it as a handheld in any capacity. Like sure, everyone knows it can be taken on the go, but no one is looking at it the same way they look at a 3DS. They fucked up by not retiring the 3DS with this and having some handheld mainstays ready for it at launch. Even if the games aren't going to be there until 2018, they at least need to announce Pokemon or Animal Crossing or some shit to get people thinking about it like the hybrid they're pretending it is.

Switch is the Donald Trump of consoles, it will get a lot of bad publicity but will sell good and be pretty successful

as a financial failure? pretty low

will Sup Forums call it a failure? 100% guaranteed

>animal crossing

Oh no, you dont know do you...

Nintendo already sold 2M units

>Pokemon
>MH

This'll be interesting to see. Nintendo doesn't have full ownership of Pokemon, so we'll have to see what The Pokemon Company wants to do since the Switch really isn't a traditional handheld (with a mediocre battery life too). For Monster Hunter I recall hearing about Capcom wanting to potentially bring the series to other systems to not limit their sales to Nintendo systems

The Dreamcast dream was 18 months long. Switch won't make it that long.

Source me capn, you made the claim so I'm laying burden of proof on you. Before you try and deflect, we don't count shipped as sales here.

I don't know if I would call it that low, Everyone is going to compare it to Wii U sales which I very doubt it will do worse than.
3DS sold less than the DS and no one really calls that a "failure"
If it sells less than Wii U + 3DS combined I would count it as following Nintendo's trend of lower install base per Gen.

Pretty high.

I doubt 1 2 Switch will bring in the casuals like Wii Sports did. A mainline Pokemon and a new Monster Hunter would prevent a repeat of the Wii U at least.

>no games for an entire year
>no more consoles being manufactured
>retail stores removing consoles from shelves

I think there are some legitimate design problems like the controller size and battery life that some people are really going to be turned off by. However, what Switch has that WiiU didn't is that normies are aware of it. I can't tell you how many people on Twitter I've seen go "Wow, that new Zelda trailer, I just preordered a Switch."

It needs a strong start to get that 3rd party support in before Holiday(tm) but it has a better chance than the WiiU did.

Probably around 60%
I really think it all hinges on how well their online experience is done.
It's also really important that Zelda launches with little to no bugs, and nintendo starts to really push some of the smaller games in between their big releases (puyo puyo, Redout, etc)

Sorta this, we need to remember that we almost definitely won't see it as low as Wii U numbers since it's also replacing its handheld, despite how poor the marketing and competitive pricing are.

3DS sold around 60 million, with Wii U around 13 million. They're consolidating it into one console now, a "poor" performance from the Switch would likely still be in the 30-40 million range.

I doubt Nintendo will ever lose their grip over Pokemon, it's highly unlikely, they're dumb but not so dumb as to completely ignore the fact that Pokemon made them dominate the handheld market for decades with zero effort.

As for MH, we'll see, after all Capcom already caved in and ported MHF and it's latest Z version to Vita despite what many people thought, so I can see Capcom going back to other consoles for the mainline titles, it's not so impossible.
If that happens though Nintendo can kiss goodbye to lots of profit, the moment MH stops being an exclusive for them they'll lose a lot of money, people are bitching since years that they want a MH with good graphics that doesn't reuses decade old assets and engines, if Capcom dares making a new MH mainline, running on a new engine and not as a Nintendo exclusive that might be a hard to swallow for Nintendo.

We'll see, I won't buy a Switch, at least not yet, because Nintendo disappointed me again on all fronts, but I'll follow the Switch anyway because it will be interesting whether it fails or succeeds.

I bought it because I am a sucker for Nintendo and have bought every single system they have ever released, even though right now I don't still have any of them. I'd like to think the Switch will be different and will still be in my collection 3 years from now but that will all depend on the games for it, and right now outside of the usual Zelda/Mario/Metroid, it's not looking too hot.

100%. Its $360 mario machine (without games) that's worth about $80 at most.

Do you people actually believe this everytime you say it or are you just meme:ing?

i think it can outsell the xboxone but that's the only achievement they can hope to reach

I'm from the future. 19 million lifetime.

>literally the saturn

All depends on continued support. And not even specifically AAA developers and games

They can reel in early adapters with Zelda and Mario but they need to be putting out new games consistently.

If they can become the new Vita with a small but vocal fanbase that buys a ton of games they might be alright.

With the specs

If it gets hacked soon, for emulators it'l sell like crazy: 0% chance to fail, emulator dude purchases will keep it afloat

If it doesn't get hacked and the games are actually much better than this bullshit lineup: 25-50% fail chance

If it gets hacked and no lifesaving games are out within first year: 80% failure chance. Fanboys will barely keep it up

E3 could reveal some hidden gems for 2017, but I think its long-term success depends on what their plans are after a year.

The 3DS still being given life support. The Switch is already taking SMT and most likely Pokemon from it. However, it needs to die completely to see what Nintendo will do with their streamlined pipeline of game development. Furthermore, Nintendo's biggest chunk of 3rd party support came from handhelds as well. So the 3DS being put to rest is even more vital to how the Switch will perform.

90% it will fall

i was really hoping for something good, but those fucking faggots did a shitty job with the switch

>Isn't being sold at a loss
How the fuck do you know?

Nintendo's been adamant about never selling their systems at a loss, so this likely is following that idea

they've mentioned a few times that selling the Wii U at a loss on launch was a big mistake and they'll never do it again

It's a toss up. Nintendo is trying to break into this generation with a console that is weaker than the previous entrants. The lack of launch titles is fine when everyone is jizzing over the generation jump, but we're around halfway through, maybe a little bit less, and Nintendo is bringing exactly one game to the table that is worth a damn, and that's a port.

It has potential with the portability, but it's not a system seller, especially when that portability comes with it being the most expensive console on the market, and the weakest.

We'll just have to see. If they can pump out the killer apps they need by the end of the year, they could win. But that's gonna take more than just Zelda.

Nintendo obviously doesn't give two shits about game generations and isn't directly competing with Sony and Microsoft anymore

>a "poor" performance from the Switch would likely still be in the 30-40 million range.
I think 30-40 million is the absolute ceiling on this thing.

I'd give it a 45% chance. New Mario and Splatoon will definitely move units and Zelda being on launch means at least one high demand title is available out of the gate and people might be afraid the Wii U version will be inferior.
However the rest of the launch titles sans Bomberman and Zelda are lackluster and stuff like SMTV and FE Warriors are too far off to really rush to buy a Switch for. Nintendo's initial hype train this time around might save it as part of why the Wii U did so poorly was the name but we won't really know until March

Everybodies ditchin the switch