Can the Switch replicate Nintendo's past successes?

Can the Switch replicate Nintendo's past successes?

no

check my 7

It'll become a success because of Japan alone, not to mention all the handheld games and indie games it's going to have, and excellent games like Skyrim.

>decline every generation except for Wii/DS
good thing they have plan B with mobile games and amusement parks

i hope so

Only if they get good 3rd party support, which is pretty doubtful right now.

The DS was so good because everyone was making golden games for it.

>home console + hybrid
>games for everybody
It has the potential to reach 100 millions easily. As long as they don't fuck it up, of course.

It's a bad home console and it's a bad handheld because it tries to be both.

I doubt there's a market for it, especially if games are so expensive and so few for it.

I dunno. the fact that they even got Todd Howard to do a presentation for their Switch Reveal Event is pretty interesting telling of how times have changed between 3rd parties and Nintendo.

It will sell more than the gamecube and less than the 64.

Nintendo will release one more piece of hardware after the Switch and then leave the market.

I understand why Wii had anomalously high sales, but why DS?

What did they do in the Wii/DS period that was so much better than everything else they've ever done?

Was it really just the gimmicks and the casual pandering?

DS gimmick, waggle gimmick

People like to toot the DS's horn but the library was dogshit. I find GBA games more playable.

What they did well was to analyze what people wanted at the time and offer them an unique product that covered those needs. And the good news is that they're doing exactly that with the Switch now.

That's wrong as fuck. Other than the 2 Zelda games, which were a victim of forced controls, the rest of the library of the DS is amazing.

Is the 3DS market still there for Nintendo?

How many 3DS only people will also buy a Switch?

They've sold like 5 million more 3DS since June, so yes, it's still there. Pretty much they all will the moment they announce Monster Hunter and Pokemon. Not only that, but Vita owners will too, which people tend to dismiss but they're still over 15 million potential new Nintendo customers, since the Switch already has Disgaea and Senran Kagura. It's just a matter of time before more Vita IPs move to the Switch too.

As a 3DS+PC fag, I'm not planning on buying a Switch any time soon, but once it has built up a decent library I'll probably get one.

>being this retarded

...

Ah yes, the ol' Game Boy and Game Boy Color are the same thing because it fits my narritive chart

That's not how the rule of averages works. The majority of sales show decline over years. What you just did was take irregular spikes and utilized to points of hight rather than the whole sum of data provided. You also failed to connect the most recent lower numbers, predicting growth from Wii and DS. Essentially, you just told me that cassette tapes might have fallen but based off of the fact that they were big at one point they're sure to get big again.

If you walked into a board room with that graph and presented it you would have got fired.

I'm pretty sure he's not being serious, user.

This is proof the casual market is both deeply profitable and very short-term. They did a smart move by going that route, but relying on it for long term success was a bad idea.

This is why nintendo needs to go ahead and die. They've failed to grow their market share every generation except for two lucky ones where they hit it big on gimmicks. They're so out of tune with what their customers actually want.

The Switch will probably have a full blown portable version that won't be able to dock with a console and that will explode in sales moreso than now and along with those Vita IPs as well.

Most developers actually are getting tired of the 3DS and Vita and want something stronger. Plus I don't see it competing with the PS4 or Xbone unless in the US. Switch seems like complement system not a full blown primary gaming system because I don't see any market for that in the West and Europe.

Touch screen added a lot imo at the time. I was totally turned off by Wii gimmix but stuff like Elite Beat Agents was great

It'll most likely have a full blown portable version that will still be able to dock into any dock. It just won't come with a dock, cables and no grip either.
Make it 50 bucks cheaper and leave them the option to buy one of those ridiculously expensive docks they sell separately if they want to.

I agree, game developers should totally pander to dudebros and try hard edgy 12yo.

What do gamers want that the switch is providing?

>the fact that they even got Todd Howard to do a presentation for their Switch Reveal Event
You mean where he talked in front of a camera in their office lobby for 30 seconds to shill a 6 year old game?

gyro or stick to keep aim on an enemy?

Or maybe they should build consoles worth the price and stop rehashing old IPs. And that goes for Sony and Microsoft too

The most expensive part is the joycons, dock cost pennies.

No 1 hour long installs every time you want to play a new game, short as hell load times, and the freedom that gives them being able to play it both on a tv or on the go.

Lol no. Look at where it's sandwiched:

PS4/xbone(proper console games)
Switch

No it's DOA

No one is buying a switch because of quick install times, I promise you

>Was it really just the gimmicks and the casual pandering?
Pretty much.

>NES
>No competition

>Super NES
>Competition with Genesis

>Nintendo 64
>Competition with PlayStation and Saturn

>GameCube
>Competition with PS2 and Xbox

>Wii
>Fuck you! We want the non-gaming market.

>Wii U
>Competition with PS4 and Xbox One

more than wiiu less than GC is my prediction.

Sure, but they're not gonna get rid of those, cause all the different colored variations are gonna print them loads of money. And they're not gonna get rid of the docking functionality either, because it also offers them the chance to sell more accessories.

If Nintendo advertises it, they will. Installing games is a huge pain in the ass for a ton of people.

But we can use the joycoys to feel Maria Rosa?

I would pay mad bux for this.

yes and more so

Best case scenario it'll outsell N64 but I don't see it cracking 40m.

It's a one off thing. You literally deal with it once and then never again.

I figure it'll sell a little better than the Gamecube, which as a hybrid console to replace both the 3DS and Wii U (no matter what Nintendo says) will be fucking terrible

So the two most successful Nintendo systems were both the Wii and DS, while overall their hardware sales have been progressively declinging over the years.
Interesting.
I don't see the Switch having the novelty gimmick that both the Wii and DS had for normies to go crazy over it, making them such huge smash successes.

>It's a bad home console and it's a bad handheld because it tries to be both.
This user gets it.

The old phrase "jack of all trades, master of none" is an excellent way to describe the Switch.

>muh turd party support
3rd party games are an effect of nintendo's console success, not a cause. the DS wasn't doing well until they relaunched it with a better design and games like NSMB and nintendogs. 3rd party games came after, like always. nintendo don't rely on 3rd party games to sell. every console's top selling games are all nintendo games whether the console is successful or not

>I don't see the Switch having the novelty gimmick that both the Wii and DS had for normies to go crazy over it, making them such huge smash successes.
This.

Also the DS was the last relevant handheld for kids before they all started to get phones and tablets.

it'll be hotcakes in japan, that's an easy 20-30M right there.

Too much shit to bring with you and lose.
>social situations + loose parts
That kid that "borrows" a controller and loses it is going to have a field day.

You are still in elementary school I see.

>can
Yes.
>will
No, not at all.

The data of that "decline" is always read wrong.

You have to realize that essentially Nintendo had no competition in the 3rd gen, with the Atari 7800 and Master System being pretty much blips on the periphery.

However it's with the 4th gen onward that there were now viable competitors which cannibalized that original market share. So it's not a chart that reflects "lol nintendo always sinking" as much as it's showing the increasing number of competitors in the marketplace.

That being said, N64 and GC were fuckups (and the Wii U a massive fuckup). The only thing that I would really point to as a metric that really matters is profit made from hardware/software sales, because that is a clearer indicator of how well the company is doing versus the number of base units sold.

Maybe not on west.

But in Japan it seems that it going have some legs for a long time. I mean vita is reclining a bit and 3ds is dying, splatoon alone grabbed nips by the balls there.

But I not sure how third parties are going react to this, long as it get proper support it going do fine.

>Also the DS was the last relevant handheld for kids before they all started to get phones and tablets.
May I add the PSP, it sold over 80 million after all. Also you are onto something here.

they might have a locator that makes it beep loudly.

>it will be an enormous success in Japan
>tanks completely in the rest of the world
>games will only release in Japan
>Japanese only, no translations

Time to brush up on your 日本語, Sup Forums

woosh

well at least there's no region locking this time.

you would have gotten fired if you tried to show a trend with less than 10 data points too. and you would have been kicked out the building if you tried to show the wii and ds as anomalies and straight up ignored the virtual boy and didn't even consider the switch's future

both of course

No.

Nintendo is going third party a la Sega after this gen. Normies don't give a fucking shit about the Switch and that's their main target audience.

>it'll be hotcakes in japan, that's an easy 20-30M right there.
Careful, user. NDFtards said the same thing about the Wii U and how it will sell 100+ million consoles. And yet here we are.

keep telling yourself that, delusional fag

that wasn't a handheld.
even the PSP sold 16M over there.

>Too much shit to bring with you and lose.
>>social situations + loose parts
This, holy fucking shit.
If I ever wanted to buy one - which I don't and never intend to.
But imagine bringing that thing to a bbq party or a nigger skate park like they have been advertising.
There is a 1000% possiblity that you will lose AT LEAST one part of that Lego tablet.

PSP software sales were shit, most people bought to pirate and nothing more.

Thats why a lot of games never got localization.

Nintendo is ran by fucking dinosaurs and they're constantly chasing after the Wii dragon that they lucked out on, they will never ever make another home console that successful, it was a complete fluke and a flash in the pan.

The harder they pander to normies, the most fickle cunts in the video game industry, the more they're going to keep slipping. Normies have their phones, they don't give a fucking shit about a video game tablet.

casul pandering. Wii pandered to the casual market, as only the consoles and a few shitty party games like Wii Sports and that fucking Carnival game sold. Now that smartphones stole the entire casul market Nintendo can't pander to them anymore.

DS was actually a fantastic idea and had an extremely long lifespan with newer models being released that felt like essential upgrades (Buying a DS lite was pretty much essential and not that expensive) and it, again, existed before smartphones which stole a lot of the portable games market+the casual market which games like Brain Age pandered to.

I mean it's easy to see why the Wii picked up like it did, and that a large part of the ultra casuals who bought a Wii promptly left the gaming world after getting bored of their Wii. Does the Switch have the huge novelty that sold the Wii? People bought Wiis for Wii Sports alone, and the Switch does not come with a pack-in like that

>here we are
where?
>wii u bombed so switch definitely will

The Wii was literally a fluke, the new one will do worse than the Wii U, and kill their market for all time.

>most people bought to pirate and nothing more.
But that's why I bought a DS Lite in the first place.
Piracy for it was like a walk in the park.

Keep in mind that Nintendo sold DS/Wii to rehab clinics and hospitals because brain age/ Wii fit.

Those kind of consumers never are going buy another one again.

Except when your hard drive gets filled. Then you have to uninstall shit to install your new fucking game, and suddenly you have wasted all your fucking afternoon doing jackshit instead of playing. And you better never want to play the games you uninstalled ever again, cause that'd of course require you to go over that whole retardation again. It's fucking bullshit, and the Switch fixes it.

why are you "hardcore" gamers so retarded lmao, that wasn't luck, that was a smart blue ocean business strategy and it's not even the first time they tried it. everyone needs to pander to normies, that's how nintendo got popular in the first place. gamecube sales is what you get when you stick to your core

>wii u bombed so switch definitely will
That's not what I said, user. Don't put words in my mouth.
This is exactly what I warn you about. Don't jump to conclusions prematurely.

it'll only take that many failiures from nintendont to realise that they need to go third party otherwise they're bankrupt

>13.02m
>mfw I actually bought a Wii U

You couldn't possibly find a more unfriendly looking geezer in all of Japan.

You need a flashcart for DS, shit is more than enough to scare normies.

People say that piracy is easy on 3ds but the brick chance and the long ass tutorial just to do it is more than enough to make people stay away from it.

PSP piracy was just stick a sd card and run something.

they already did go third party
all their biggest franchises are on mobile now

>why are you "hardcore" gamers so retarded

I never said I was, you're strawmanning.

My point was that the casuals have all moved on to greener pastures. They don't fucking care about home consoles, they already have hardware to play video games on.

>all their biggest franchises are on mobile now

only super mario run is on mobile you imbecile and emulators dont count

I think it'll, at the very least, do better than GameCube and Wii U and maybe N64.

30-40 million lifetime would be my guess.

>as only the consoles and a few shitty party games like Wii Sports and that fucking Carnival game sold
but this is demonstrably wrong, games like twilight princess, mario kart, mario galaxy, smash bros, NSMB wii sold really well. carnival games isn't even in the top 10, where do you get your information from? christ

>that wasn't luck, that was a smart blue ocean business strategy and it's not even the first time they tried it.
Even if this is ironic shitposting, this just warmps my fucking mind. 10/10 at 4d chess potato olympics.

Nintendo's blue ocean "business strategy" for the past 14 years has been throwing shit at a wall and see what sticks.

nobody said the switch will do wii numbers. there aren't 2 degrees of success you know. and people didn't buy wiis for just wii sports, it has a pretty good attach rate and games sold well into the console's life

>GBA and Gamecube lowest sales
This is why Nintendo doesn't care about the core audience.

Why would anyone want to buy a switch. It's a 3rd party OS a small tablet. It's processor is good but everything about it is a slight upgrade to the Wii u and put pure tablet form.

Because of the fact the cartridge system is gonna be expensive games are not gonna drop in prices. Nintendo needs to launch a game similar to Wii sports but refused to do. so trying make up profit buy making people buy a game.

Only way nintendo could make a come back is. Make a larger 10inch version marketed as the"pro" which has 3* the battery and 1080pscreen. Make a slot of m. 2 or ssd slot for easier upgrade. (would say SD card world be enough but 1-2tb SD cards are still 3-5years down the line for affordable. Have the tablet have andriod as main OS and Nintendo OS as a side loaded because multiple use tablet with shield in home streaming would be much better for consumers.

If they did this and targeted price a little above of current 10inch tablets when they could sell more hardware to people that want to buy a good tablet. Another thing if Nintendo makes it limited batch amount then they are gonna be doomed from the start. Most Nintendo fan boys will buy it till sell out and 3-6 months its gonna lose interest and will fail. Making 3rd party people see little support even though it's unreal engine 4 optimised and shit I do not think making development will publish on it. Making it have little amount of games which will make it fail again

The Switch will probably do fantastic.


You can look at it as a home console, a successor to the WiiU. In that department there's nowhere to go but up, it looks superior to the WiiU in literally every fucking way outside of "but I can't do touchscreen gaming while I play on my tv!". It's a fairly priced budget home console, at $300 compared to the WiiU which was $350 at launch, which is fine because compared to the WiiU at launch the Switch is slightly less "current tech", even though it's totally capable of running modern games.

You can look at it as a handheld. Holy shit it blows every past handheld out of the water, including the Vita which was supposedly a powerhouse. It's the first HD gaming handheld from a gaming company, with a big list of exclusive games that will roll out over time. Yes, it's expensive as a handheld at $300, but it's a totally premium device compared to shit like the 3DS, and remember the Vita had a $300 model too. Note that the Japanese LOVE Nintendo handhelds, guaranteeing sales on this thing.

Of course you get both at once, which is extreme value if you'll use both halves. It's not $600 or anything, but at worst you can look at it and say "I'm paying $150 for a budget HD home console and $150 for a top quality HD-ready portable", both of which are insane values. Games at $60 tops is great too, because you get to double dip where you get 2 versions of every game for the same price other consoles give you just 1 copy of the game, even for physical purchases. A LOT of people spent $100 on Smash 3DS+WiiU based on the number of Mewtwo codes people redeemed when the only way to get him was owning both games, and that was for a fucking 240p handheld version.

The Switch doesn't seem to have any major flaws, while the 3DS had a high price for a 240p console because of shit 3D and the WiiU had a high price and a shit gimmick in the "2 devices in one box" gimmick.

>as only the consoles and a few shitty party games like Wii Sports and that fucking Carnival game sold.

How many times a day do we have to remind low-IQ people a day that the Wii's attach ratio was pretty decent contrary to their ignorant beliefs?

but the only time they tried the strategy in the last 14 years was with the wii and ds

>but I can't do touchscreen gaming while I play on my tv!"
You kinda can, thanks to the improved motion controls.

Let me correct myself. Only first party games (Nintendrone market) and shitty party/casual games sold. The other market on the Wii was the nintendrone market, but that wasn't the reason why the console itself was so successful. There were a ton of really great 3rd party gems (Madworld, Muramasa, Red Steel 2) that sold like ass because they were on the Wii and there was no market for actual games on that system, only casual waggle trash and 1st party Nintendo games.

Now that Nintendo has lost the wagglan market and their 1st party games are significantly less strong than they were before they cannot succeed unless they pull their shit together and actually make the same level of quality 1st party titles that they did back when they made games like Mario Galaxy and Twilight Princess. Even then, they still won't have nearly the sales numbers they did because there's no way they can regain the casual market.

Wrong.
Everything after the gamecube. Including the Switch.

wii u and 3ds aren't blue ocean consoles though. do you even know what that term means?

>32 GB storage
>Not have to worry about hard drive getting filled