Who wins?

Who wins?

What the FUCK is happening

The dragon,

the mods were busy fapping to a cp thread. they're done now. everything is getting fixed

The knight,

>instakill attacks

the digimon OC

The Knight fights for king and country against the savage beastman hordes. He will prevail through conviction alone.

Shit did start getting fixed once that thread got archived. Huh.

The people in favor of the inevitable direction of this thread.

>The Knight fights for king and country against the savage beastman hordes.
That will look neat on his tombstone after the dragon eats it.

Depends on the damage formula.

I made the simple formula [Attack^2]/[Defense]

On average, it takes the knight 31.6 attacks to kill the dragon.

On average, it takes the dragon 6.3 attacks to kill the human.

So the dragon will win most of the time.

The damage formula is given in the lower right corner of the pic

Oh damn. Didn't see.

that is unsexiest dragonthing of all time and an insult to dragons everywhere

So then if I'm reading it right, it takes the knight an average of 20.45 turns to kill the dragon.

And it takes the dragon 21.05 turns to kill the knight.

So the knight had a slight edge.

Fun.

My dick wins

Calcs:

Knight attacks:
1500/((80-60)(2/3)+(240-60)(1/3))

Dragon attacks:
300/(((120-30)(3/4)+(300)(1/4))*1/10))

Correct

The way you put the dragon instakill attack into the model isn't right. If you replace (300)(1/4) with (900)(1/4) the mean amount of turns becomes 10,25 according to your model, but a correct implementation shouldn't scale. Your solution of simply calculating mean damage per turn won't work proper in this situation and your result only approximates the expected result by coincidence.

Fleshlite?

The knight wins but not without a couple of bullshit deaths due to 25% OHKO chance.

No it's not?
Look at those fuck me eyes, how could you even think that?

>implying the knight doesn't fail his first 90% avoid roll and dragen doesn't instakill on first hit

That's a 2.5% chance, so it'll definitely happen if I'm playing.

I agree the calculation could be made more robust if the instant KO were incorporated as a separate probability from the damage calcs, but it isn't a "coincidence." The max HP the knight can lose is 300. So I think it's a fair representation.

it depends on how you compute the damage idiots

Unless you play a dragon, then it will never happen and you won't get a single hit on the tin can.

That is a cute dragon

The dragon fights for his survival, though, with all the strength of a cornered beast.
If that isn't strong conviction, idk what is.

Ran a simulation. Knight is garbage tier.

I agree "coincidence" wasn't right, but the calculation is still somewhat off in favour of the dragon. 300 should actually be replaced with the mean damage done by an instakill, which is almost always going to be lower than 300. I'll agree it's not far off though.

if(kHP < 0) kWins++; else dWins++;
should be
if(kHP

The knight wins, because he gets to enjoy being at the dragon's mercy. Defeated and helpless, bargaining for his survival.

Fixed it, also accidentally gave dragon 75% chance to instagib.

Knight only slightly garbage.

Did you replace dWins++ and kWins++? I recall yesterday a simulation produced pretty much the opposite result. Also you're not taking draws into consideration, it's possible they both die.

The knight seems utter shit, he deals a whole average of 20 damage not counting the proc.

The dragon only needs to hit that 10% 3 times without even counting the instakill

The night. 90% dodge rate is stupid high.

The Knight deals (80 - 60) damage two out of three turns, and (80 x 3 - 60) damage one out of three turns.
(80 x 2 - 60 x 2) + (80 x 3 - 60)
= (160 - 120) + (240 - 60)
= (40) + (180)
= 220 Damage every 3 Turns
220 / 3
= 73.3333333333 Damage per Turn on Average
1500 / 73.3333333333
= 20.4545454546
The Knight requires 20.4545454546 turns to defeat the Dragon.

The Dragon deals (120 - 30) damage every turn, and will hit on average 1 out of 10 turns.
(120 - 30)
= 90 damage every 10th turn
90 / 10
= 9 damage every turn
300 / 9
= 33.3333333333
The Dragon requires 33.3333333333 turns to defeat the Knight. As the Dragon would kill the Knight in 3 successful attacks, while his Insta-Kill would kill on average on 4 successful attacks.

The Knight will win on average.

...

>furfags attempt to ruin another thread episode
what a surprise

...

...

I don't think you properly understand averages. If there's a 25% chance of something happening, that doesn't mean it'll happen once every four times, it means that if you do the test a million times, it'll probably happen about 250 000 times. It's perfectly possible (although very unlikely) that an event with a 25% chance doesn't happen even once when a test is done a thousand times, or the other way around that it happens every time.

All in on the dragon.

I'm not entirely sure how to calculate the instakill thing so I left it. Either way it really doesn't affect the end result enough for the Dragon to take it.

The dragon requires 4 attacks to kill the knight.

>90
>180
>270
>360

This makes a huge difference because on average the Knight only needs 21-23 attacks to kill the Dragon while the Dragon needs somewhere around 31-40 not counting his instakill.

The knight Averages 680 damage every 10 attacks.

>7*20 = 140
>3*180 = 540

The Dragon will only average 90 damage every 10 attacks.

All things being equal the Knight should kill the Dragon after 23 attacks, while the Dragon could require the whole 40 attacks to kill the knight.

The instakill is the only math I'm not really sure how to crunch.

depends on what were talking about user.

But in this instance its implied this is a video game or at least some form of computer programming and a 25% chance tends to mean exactly that.

>a 25% chance tends to mean exactly that.
someone hasn't played an x-com game before

Two slaves fight in the arena for their freedom. Who is more likely to survive?

For the Kobold, every two strikes on average should deal 40 damage, as in two hits, one hit will ignore armor (Deal 30 damage) and one will not (Deal 10 damage)
1200 / 40 = 30
30 x 2 = 60
It takes 60 strikes for the Kobold on average to kill the Minotaur.

For the Minotaur, every 20th strike should hit (95 out of 100 = 9.5 out of 10 = 19 out of 20), and will be reduced to 90 Damage due to the Kobold's DEF.
200 / 90 = 2.22222222222
2.22222222222 x 20 = 44.4444444444
It takes the Minotaur 44.4444444444 strikes on average to kill the Kobold.

green manlet blown the fuck out

If every 20 strikes the minotaur hits the kobold once, shouldn't he need 60 strikes in average to hit the kobold 3 times, making them equal?

That's not how averages work.

I'm into vore, but only if the princess gets eaten.

Not same user but took his code and added draws in javascript, also ran the fight a million times because why not.

dragonRules(1000000)
VM2513:46 Dragon wins: 255068 Knight wins: 531929 Draws: 213003
dragonRules(1000000)
VM2513:46 Dragon wins: 255774 Knight wins: 532652 Draws: 211574
dragonRules(1000000)
VM2513:46 Dragon wins: 255207 Knight wins: 532418 Draws: 212375
dragonRules(1000000)
VM2513:46 Dragon wins: 255556 Knight wins: 531410 Draws: 213034

The Knight is a clear win.

He's right though, the original response didn't take into account that you can't do 22% of an attack — it's 90 or nothing. To kill the kobold, the minotaur has to attack thrice, so the mean amount of turns it takes the minotaur to kill the kobolt is just the amount of turns it takes him to hit thrice, 60.

But the 1/20 is only the likely hood - he could hit 3 1/20s in a row and kill in the first 3 attempts.

>1 in 20 strikes is successful in average
>2 in 40 strikes are successful in average
>3 in 60 strikes are successful in average
>Minotaur needs 3 hits to kill kobold
>Therefore he needs to strike an average of 60 times, same as kobold

That's pretty much how averages work, go back to high school

But the end number has to account for it taking less than 60, clearly

We're talking about the average here, not a 1 in 8000 occurance.

And 2.22222222222 in 44.4444444444 strikes are successful on average

...

>An attack is an attack you can't just do 22% of an attack
Fuck off """Henry"""

Those draw amounts seem a bit high to me.
When I coded it I got around the same amount of Knight wins but no where near the amount of draws.
I got
Knight: 539,825
Dragon: 440,289
Ties: 19,866

I took 22% from 200 / 90 = 2.22222222222, this is the line where OP calculates the amount of hits necessary.
The minotaur can't do 0,2222222222 of an attack, he can only do 1, so it should be rounded up to 3.

...

The player character wins every time.

You're correct I put >= in the while fight loop which gave them both an extra 0hp chance once in a while.

dragonRules(1000000)
Dragon wins: 443184 Knight wins: 537035 Draws: 19781
dragonRules(1000000)
VM3672:46 Dragon wins: 442432 Knight wins: 537575 Draws: 19993
dragonRules(1000000)
VM3672:46 Dragon wins: 442402 Knight wins: 538013 Draws: 19585

Still a clear victory for the Knight but way closer, interesting how giving them a extra 0hp chance doomed the dragon.

The big difference is simply because the instakill implementation sets the knight's health to zero.

kek you're right, Knight got an extra turn everytime the dragon instakilled, guy was a clear cheater.

A mage is pissed off at a mirror and is determined to destroy it.

tip top fucking KEK

>thread is immediately hijacked by scalies
Welp, time to see what Sup Forums is doing.

He posted only four images and that was over an hour ago, it's hardly hijacked.

...

Lizards are really cool regardless of your sexual tastes

I take this back.

...

Mage
ATK - DEF
= 100 - 10
= 90
HP / DMG
= 100 / 90
= 1.111111
On average, every two attacks will be reflected by the Mirror and one attack will hit the mirror.
1.111111 x 3
= 3.333333 Attacks

Mirror
ATK - DEF
= 100 - 20
= 80
HP / DMG
= 200 / 80
= 2.5 Reflected Attacks
On average, every two out of three attacks will be reflected and one will hit. Of those two, one will be evaded, so for every three attacks, only one will hit the Mage. And for the attack that does hit, there is a 2/3 chance it will instakill and a 1/3 chance it will not instakill.

Don't ask me how to calculate that instakill percentage because I don't fucking know.
Please don't derail this thread when it's clearly supposed to be about calculating shit rather than whatever shitty fetish you have.

...

Its not some shitty fetish tho. It's the natural progression of human lust. Evolve.

o_O

well, it is.

What the fuck is even the point of that axe design?

Scorpions are objectively superior to reptilians in every single way.

...

>when it's clearly supposed to be about calculating shit
If that was true, the thread would be over as soon as somebody competent ran the correct simulation and posted his results. There would be no discussion to be had after that. This is not a derailment, it's more like recycling.

Except discussions of how the simulation may be inaccurate, discussions on other similar battle scenarios, etc.
It sounds to me like you're performing mental gymnastics in your poor excuse to break the rules.

...

dont give up dragon

Both kinds are autistic and relevant simultaneously.

Just let nature take its course I guess.

In the furries' defence I think people are kind of done with solving relatively simple probability problems, if it weren't for them the thread would probably die anyways, on the other hand that would at least be a graceful death.

Last time I checked the thread was "Who wins?" not "spam furry pictures".
It says a lot when you could replace the dragon with a blob or a dragon monstergirl and the thread wouldn't get derailed. It also really makes you wonder why posting anthros is against the rules, almost like shit like this would happen at a much grander scale if it wasn't there.

If a thread has already served its purpose, it shouldn't be spammed with shitty pictures just to save it but die or find something similar to the topic at hand to discuss rather than shitposting.

...

>It says a lot when you could replace the dragon with a blob or a dragon monstergirl and the thread wouldn't get derailed
>dragon monstergirl
>wouldn't get derailed
hownew.ru

>monstergirl
>he thinks weebs don't do it all the time with these/etc. either

>implying it would get derailed if it were a dragon monstergirl

>Last time I checked the thread was "Who wins?" not "spam furry pictures".
You're a fool if you think these threads and shit like "draw yourself using vidya powers to save the princess" aren't made with extremely unsubtle ulterior motives in mind.

Mage wins overwhelmingly
Mage: 909291
Mirror: 90709

Monstergirls > dragons

>whataboutism
>he thinks it would get derailed if it were a monstergirl
:^)
Except for the fact that these threads contain tons of variables along with the image, if this was made with the ulterior motive of furry pic spamming it wouldn't contain any variables but just a picture of the knight and dragon along with the question of who wins.

I'd fuck her