Read walkthrough with step-by-step explanation 3 times

>read walkthrough with step-by-step explanation 3 times
>still don't get it

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youtube.com/watch?v=7u6kFlWZOWg
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

>find walkthrough for tough part of game
>"yeah you can actually skip the next easy puzzle if you do [something simple] before it starts]

>You have to sit at the exact moment the barber turns his head and click granny's legs twice with pin-point accuracy as she shuffles them
>If you don't do this correctly, you can't progress in the game

The Monty Hall problem is easiest explained when taken to an illogical extreme:

Imagine that instead of three doors, there are one hundred; 999 of them have a goat. You have a 1/100 chance, 1% chance, that you pick the correct door. You pick a door, and they open 998 of them and reveal the goats. Even though your door is one of two left, being asked to switch doesn't give you a 50/50 chance of being right, because you originally still had a 1% chance of choosing correctly in the first place.

>only walkthrough on the internet for a game in a language you don't understand fails to list a crucial requirement for progression
I never beat Bomberman Land 3 because i could never find the bunny that is supposed to pop out of the ground in the bunny park.

>falling for the bayesian inference meme.

Yeah, but there's still only TWO doors at the end, so it's still 50/50.

>expecting basement dwellers on Sup Forums to understand basic math

...

You're choosing 1 door out of 2 and of them has a goat. It's 50/50.

No no, you don't get to forget the other 998 doors. They still have to be taken into account when you're describing the situation mathematically.

Don't worry OP, there were actual math PhD who mailed them saying that the odds wouldn't go up by switching. You're not stupid for not getting it.

>They still have to be taken into account when you're describing the situation mathematically.
The chance of choosing 999 incorrect doors in a row is miniscule.
You actually have the higher chance to pick a correct door if you failed 997 picks.

let's say the car is behind door #1

if you choose door #1 and don't switch, you get the car. if you choose door #2 and don't switch, you get a goat. if you choose door #3 and don't switch, you get a goat. when not switching, one out of three choices results in you getting a car

if you choose door #1 and switch, you get a goat. if you choose door #2 and switch, you get the car. if you choose door #3 and switch, you get the car. when switching, two out of three choices result in you getting a car

go fuck yourselves, retards

I never heard of this explanation before but it really makes it clear, sweet. You are already getting brainlets who can't grasp this perspective though lel

>there were actual math PhD who mailed them saying that the odds wouldn't go up by switching
And they're right.

The monty hall problem only lets to pick once and switch once.

Or you can explain it in a case by case basis

Case 1
First pick: The right door
Swap: You lose

Case 2
First pick: The wrong door
Swap: You win

Case 3
First pick: The wrong door
Swap: You win

Case 4
First pick: The right door
Don't swap: You win

Case 5
First pick: The wrong door
Don't swap: You lose

Case 6
First pick: The wrong door
Don't swap: You lose

So there are 2 cases for winning if you swap, but you only win by picking the right door the first time if you don't swap.

No, most of them admitted that they were wrong. The rest were too embarrassed to concede after getting BTFO by brainlets.

>read walkthrough to see how to beat a boss
>"if you've been following my guide up to this point you should be perfectly built to beat this boss"

>No, most of them admitted that they were wrong.
After the author of this retarded shit told them that you have to take agenda of the show host into account.

This problem is not mathematical.

such a counterintuitive problem

Your biggest problem is not that you're too dumb to get it, it's that you're too dense to admit you could be wrong.

The first time you pick a door, there is a 1/100 chance to pick the right door. So you pick a door. Statistically you are very much more likely to be wrong than right.

Now every door besides the one you picked and the one containing the goat are opened. How do you not get it?

You're on a game show an the host shows you three doors. Behind two of them is nothing, and behind the third is a stack of PS3 games. You select a door, and the host opens one door revealing nothing. He asks if you'd like to stick with the door you chose, or if you'd like to swap to the other unopened door.

Should you swap, or does it make no difference?

>How do you not get it?
People are really, REALLY stupid, and this problem proves it.

Everyone's overthinking it. You have a 2/3 chance of picking a goat, so if all other goats but 1 are removed and you switch, that 2/3 of choosing a goat become 2/3 of being a car. It's easy, all you're doing is flipping probabilities because there are only a goat and a car left, so you must pick the opposite of what you got if you switch.

Honestly it only becomes obvious in hindsight. I struggled with it too the first time I knew about it, and so did nearly everybody else. There's a reason the problem is so well-known.
On the other hand with an explanation like the above I guess it is a matter of stupidity.

>Now every door besides the one you picked and the one containing the goat are opened.
Are you saying that car door is opened as well?

whats insane to me is that so many mathematicians and phd's actually disagreed with it for so long. Its such a sensible thing to work out in your head. You pick a door randomly, the rest of the doors open excluding the goat door through some divine mechanism or the door opener knowing which contains the goat. Obviously they were more likely to pick the goat door because the only way they couldnt was if you picked the goat door first out of 100 doors.


Like what the fuck.

That's probably the reason they went with three doors instead of one hundred; the solution becomes much more obvious at a hundred, so they'd have to give out a lot more cars.

Well, that and they'd probably blow the entire budget rounding up 99 goats.

Statistics are very unintuitive, and the worst is that the more you know the more you can get tangled up in the math. This is also a pretty old problem so they couldn't whip out a python script to model the situation and get an accurate simulation back then.

two doors, 1 goat, 50%.

stop being pretentious and trying to pretend that you "get it"

Solving it using probabilities is over complicating it to the point of ridiculousness. Just list out the individual cases and it's obvious, since we're dealing with only a handful.

i guess you're right. We get to look at it in hindsight

Something I've never understood about the Monty Hall problem: to all the people that choose incorrectly and lose, do they still get to keep the goat?

It's okay bro, smart people also got it wrong.

No he's right, you have a 2/3 chance of getting the car if you swap.

Of course, the consolation prize is a build it yourself feast.

If there are two doors left, then yes, you have a 50/50 chance of getting the goat if you switch. But only if you switch. Because only then are you making a new choice, with new criteria.

If you keep the door you picked from the start, you're still playing by the chances you had when you picked one out of a hundred.

The general issue with the monty hall problem is that people think intuitively when they should be thinking with probabilities.

1/3 chance of getting it right, 2/3 chance of getting it wrong.

Goat door opens.

Switching doors soul mean your chance of getting it right will increase from 1/3 to 1/2, whereas sticking with your choice would not increase your chance to win.

This is assuming what's behind the door is totally random and the announcer asks you if you want to switch every time, not to trick you into giving up the correct choice.

Shit like this is why I hate math. It's such a dumb question, why does anyone even give a fuck? Is this what mathematicians do all day? Just sit around and jerk off on to pointless questions that do nothing when solved? I'm convinced every mathematician is just a failed engineer or scientist.

They're the ones who failed to be an engineer or scientist, but are too autistic/creepy to be trusted around children as a teacher.

You're wrong.

When the goat door is revealed you have two options: switch or stay. If you switch the only way to win is if you chose a goat initially: 2/3. If you stay you MUST have chosen a car initially: 1/3.

Your probability doesn't change to two possibilities because you have THREE options to choose from initially.

we wouldn't have video games if weren't for maths. Have some respect kid.

Math is about 70 years ahead of physics and engineering, of course they'll play games because it's not even fun being so much better than the rest.
It's always been the same through history, a mathematician finds something playing around and 50 years later a physicist understands how to use it.

Some people do math for fun, user.

Like optimizing an rpg character to have the most effective hp given evasion chance, damage mitigation etc. Or maximize dps.

This door thing has always seemed like a gambler's fallacy to me.

Your chances don't change, they're always what they still were at the start.

Ah bugger.

I think everyone here who is saying it is 50/50 are trolling and math cucks can't take it.

>If there are two doors left, then yes, you have a 50/50 chance of getting the goat if you switch.
Why do people keep saying this? It's flat out wrong.

Pick the correct door first, then swap, you lose.
Pick one wrong door first, then swap, you win.
Pick the other wrong door first, then swap, you also win.

2 wins out of 3 cases, how is this even difficult?

Is the Monty Hall problem the greatest brainlet exposer of our time?

>Is this what mathematicians do all day
No. The Monty Hall problem was a cute puzzle submitted to a magazine columnist that answered math questions. This is like asking if astronauts spend all day setting off bottle rockets.

t. mathematician

This literally doesn't make it any less confusing.

look, in the beginning you had a one-in-three chance of getting the door correct. after removing the other door and ask to switch you have to remember the odds of you getting the correct door the first time were one out of three. You have a better chance if you switch. (statistically speaking)

Modelling is the easiest way to demonstrate the statistics.

When you first look at the problem, there are 3 options and only 1 chance of winning.
But if you act it out you see there are actually 6 options and 3 chances of winning.
However, if you never swap you're denying yourself of those 2 other chances.

youtube.com/watch?v=7u6kFlWZOWg

No you don't, it's literally the exact same chance weather you switch or not.

Zero Time Dilemma does a really good illustration of this by having 10 lockers and having you actively play and repeat it.

That's because you're an idiot.

he fucked up a couple words, but the idea can be compressed to 2 sentences

you pick 1 out of 1000 doors, you have .1% chance of being right

they get rid of 998 incorrect doors, your chances don't go up if you stay with your first choice, but if you switch your chances skyrocket

>maths
Spotted the third world retard.

>Maths is a shortening of Mathematics
>Somehow this is wrong

>implying OPs picture isn't example enough for anyone not retarded to understand.

I never understood the struggle with the monty hall problem.

The monte hall problem is basically someone telling you 'here's the right answer, pick it'.
This only becomes more obvious the more chances you have, and to not swap is basically saying 'I trust that my luck is better than the game show host pretty much telling me where the answer is'

People get confused because the simplest example of probability that they always fall back to is a coin flip. When you flip a coin, regardless of how many times it landed on head or tails before this, it's still a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails.

This situation is different because the probability from your previous choice tells you additional information about your current choice. Before told you that there's a 66% chance that the door you picked was wrong. That hasn't changed.

Get back to working on THE MOVIE Ross

>Read walkthrough for a tough puzzle.
>They get east and west reversed.
>Think I can just reverse east and west and understand the directions.
>Nope, they only get them switched around SOMETIMES.
How do you make a walkthrough without knowing cardinal directions?

Pic related is playing this game with 1000 doors.
He picks a door and the host opens up 998 other doors, showing all goats, then asks nagito if he wants to switch.
Should he?

This is completely stupid though, because now that all those other wrong answers are gone there are only two options left and both are equally likely to be the car. How on fucking earth would the chances not change?

Depends, how many bullets do the goats have?

It's called math in the real world, chump.

The goats have a total of 13 bullets that some of them ate, but 7 of them are digested enough to not function anymore.

Doesn't matter. Any choice he makes will end up being the right one.

I would wager that most people get by with 'left and right" since it's a local measurement of direction.
Most people in their day to day lives don't give world based location relationships.

The game show host wants you to switch because he doesn't want to give away the car, idiot. The real answer is that you should stay because you had the right door all along and the show host is a fucking scam artist.

You pick your door from 1 out of 1000. Even after the 998 doors get eliminated, the odds of your door being the winner are still only 1/1000.

But after he narrows it down to only 2 doors, the odds of his door being the winner are 1/2.

It doesn't matter. If he chooses poorly the door with the prize is the only one that would open.

>I would wager that most people get by with 'left and right"
That's worse because you never know what the fuck camera position the author has and he never tells you.

Yeah, the thing is that it's not about actually getting the goat, it's about getting the best of to get the goat under a strict set of circumstances.

That literally doesn't make any sense, once the other doors are gone the odds are 50/50, period.

See OP's pic. It literally explains the probability outcomes.

This is grade school math.

Nice quads

If it isn't, I'll just go back to the flow diagram and try again.

>play obscure game
>has a side quest/side npc dialogs
>guide says to talk to npc to start
>guide maker doesn't realize he talked to another npc at one point of the early game that made the npc he mentions appear
>struggle trying to figure this out because there no mention of it

I don't know what's worse, the brainlets who don't get it or the ones who would switch but believe the chance of winning is 1/2

Because they didn't shuffle what's behind the doors in between your first and second choice. If they did, then it would be 50/50. But they didn't.

It's not that your making a brand new probability choice. In the 1000 door example, you have a 1/1000 chance that you picked the door with the car behind it. Staying with this choice now that there's only 2 doors doesn't change the 99.9% chance that you picked a goat.

pure stupidity is worse than Instinctively right stupidity

>tfw someone saved my edit
Feels good

Also, it was kind of cheap for ZTD to have a Monty Hall dilemma.

FUCKING
H O W
YOU ARENT FUCKING EXPLAINING W H Y IT DOESNT CHANGE, YOU'RE ONLY SAYING IT DOESNT WHEN I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO BELIEVE YOU.

No user you're just dumb. Don't worry it's not your fault, you were probably hardwired to be dumb in your genetics.

This is what I think confuses people. They don't understand that the winning and losing doors are set in stone the entire time. The car is already behind the 1 specific door, the door you open doesn't generate an RNG results as you open it determining if it has the car or not.

someone steals $100 out of a cash register in a store
that person later returns to the same store and purchases $70 worth of items with the same $100 bill they stole earlier
they receive $30 in change and leave
how much did the store lose?

you should be able to solve this

A lot of ZTD was cheap, really.
I still kind of liked it even though it was a mess.

>Replay Super Mario World after a decade since I last played it
>93 out of 96 exits

wat gaem

The trick to explaining Monty Hall problem is realizing that there are not TWO decisions there is only ONE decision.

Choose between:

- random door out of 3
- random door out of 2

Monty Hall is the stupidest shit because it acts like the decision to stay with your first choice isn't a new choice in and of itself.

Find those three exits and make your life complete

$100 and anyone not able to serve this is a dumb fuck

These fags suck at explaining things in a way a layman would understand it. Just saying "probability because all of these outcomes" is retarded. What they aren't mentioning is the fact that the game show host opening the door tells you something.

In a scenario of three doors, you seemingly don't learn anything when the game show host opens up one door following your first pick. It doesn't appear to matter whether you picked a door before or after Door 3 was opened. You either pick "this door" or "that door". A third door was never an option. The third door being opened gives zero insight into what is behind the other two doors because it could very well have been a "random pick" by the host because both had goats and you do have the car already.

HOWEVER, in a situation of 100 doors, even the dumbest dumbass is far more attentive to the filtering that gives you insight into the conditions behind the doors. The host KNOWS where the car is. so if you pick door #1, he then goes and opens Doors 2-43 and doors 45-100. Did he skip Door 44 at random, or did he knowingly skip it because the car is there? With the idea in your head that he deliberately did not open THAT door, there's an extremely high chance that Door 44 has the car.

tl;dr the reason you win more often by switching is because THE CAR'S POSITION DOES NOT CHANGE, THE HOST KNOWS WHERE THE CAR IS, And he avoids opening THAT door. THE ACTION OF OPENING THE OTHER DOOR(S) AFTER YOUR FIRST PICK IS A CLUE