So I think we all agree that the Switch is going to outsell the GameCube in 2018...

So I think we all agree that the Switch is going to outsell the GameCube in 2018, and if Pokemon or Animal Crossing come out along with Smash, it might even outsell the N64 this year. But how high can it go? Is it possible that we approach Wii or even DS numbers?

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No console is ever gonna reach Wii or DS numbers again, but it could definitely pass the 64

If the Switch gets a revision with cell phone capabilities then it could

Switch hardware revisions will carry it

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why would people buy a second smartphone just to play games

It wouldn't be a second smartphone anymore than the Galaxy S10 will be a second smartphone. It'd just be a phone. It's big draw would probably be from parents wanting to get it for their kids.

And they'd probably sell it along with a cheaper non phone version since radios make up the bulk of real cost in smartphones.

Don't forget the 2D Mario being announced at E3

Switch should outsell the N64 this year, if Pokemon releases it will outsell the Xbox One.

What if I told you it doesn't need either this year to do both?

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Considering the XBox One still hasn't outsold the N64 it'd be hard to outsell the N64 but not the XBox One.

Would it be the ultimate embarrassment for the XBox One to be outsold by a not-even two year old console that can't even play Call of Duty? I mean, Jesus, really? And the scary part is it isn't just possible, it's extremely likely.

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This will be reality by Christmas.

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>Considering the XBox One still hasn't outsold the N64
No fucking way
>Looked it up
Holy fucking shit

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>No console is ever gonna reach Wii
isn't ps4 on its way?

>DS
agreed, DS and ps2 were anomalies that worked both as gaming machines with and extensive quality of games plus as primary lifestyle machines. Switch had a chance but no 4K is gonna hurt it in the longrun

it doesn't need pokemon for shit to outsell xbone, smash is enough

I guarantee Switch will get a 4K revision in like four years. It's far more future proof than its predecessors. I expect to see Nintendo trying to promote it as a tablet eventually.

PS4 surpassing Wii's total sales within its lifetime is quite possible. It's still selling pretty steadily past 70 million, so I could see it passing 100 million within a few years.

As for Switch, it will likely surpass Gamecube's total by July and Nintendo 64's by the end of the year. It's looking to be at about 18 million by the end of March, and Nintendo's aiming to sell over 20 million more from April to the end of next March.

>I expect to see Nintendo trying to promote it as a tablet eventually.
doubt it the tablet craze passed a while ago

>Switch will sell 20m in year 2
Where do they get these projections? I don't think pokemon has that much star power. I am kinda hyped to see what Gamefreak will do, not preorder hyped. And if it's anything short of extraordinary it will be shit desu.
Will outselling a dead brand really be a feat though? If they can't that would be more detrimental for Nintendo.

True, maybe as just more of a media devise like a fire stick or a chromecast. I'm surprised the big media app push hasn't started.
20million in year two is basically unavoidable at this point.
>I don't think pokemon has that much star power
There is literally nothing in the world, nothing at all, that has as much star power as Pokemon. Nothing. At all.

Switch will hit 20m before Smash comes out lol

Animal Crossing, Pokemon, and Smash will combine to bring it to 40-50m

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Nintendo's president says they want to sell over 20 million units in the next fiscal year. That means the period from April 1 2018 to March 31 2019.

When you look at sales milestones like that, it's not the number in itself that's the impressive thing. It's the speed. Wii U's 13.56 million, for instance, is pretty poor for four years, but reaching nearly 15 million in only 10 months is a very impressive feat. I don't think there's any current reliable data on Xbox One sales to make a reliable milestone out of, though.

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If it's only unavoidable because of pokemon then I'll reserve my skepticism. It just seems like were assuming the current switch owners aren't going to make up a large portion of the software attachment rate for pokemon. If there's 2 versions of pokemon then I don't see it doing any better than sun and moon. It'll just show how attached to the current formula gamefreak is and won't have as big a draw as it could if it were made from the ground up with a brand new game franchise direction.
You're funny user.

Microsoft refuses to release sales figures on XBox Sales because of how poorly it's doing.

You're very largely discounting the people who won't be getting a Switch until Pokemon comes out. And the fact that there's a very, very consistent rate of people buying the Switch and has been for a while. I could see 20 million by the end of the Summer, even if nothing huge comes out by then.

>Where do they get these projections
>"Are we releasing Smash this year?"
>"Yes"
>"Okay let's up the forecast by 10 million"
In all seriousness, Nintendo has been forecasting numbers people think are high, but they've exceeded them each time. I don't see why this time should be different, especially with Smash and other stuff on the horizon.

To be clear, the 20 million figure is the sales within the the next financial year like says, not the LTD figure. The LTD is somewhere north of 15 million right now, but that's not counted in the 20 million they're forecasting for FY2018.

no intention of buying one until I get a proper pokemon game on it

Kimishima deliberately low balls because he saw the consistent stock downtick when Iwata would miss his sales projection every single time.

See?

>So I think we all agree

I fucking hate faggots who act like they speak for everyone on this board.

>proper
then you'll have to wait forever since gen 6/7 were shit

Yeah but Pokemon fans still defend them. They're similar enough to Red and Blue for Pokemon fans to think they're good.

how can the switch sell 36m?

Animal Crossing
Fire Emblem
Pokemon
Smash
If it even gets 2 or 3 of those this year, 30 isn't unreasonable, especially with the people buying it no longer seeing themselves as early adopters.

Like I said. If gamefreak keeps following the same formula it won't be that proper pokemon game other user is looking for.
Is there really anything preventing the switch from having a pokemon game featuring multiple gens in a new significantly larger region not first introduced in the anime?

i agree with when I mean proper pokemon game I don't mean the usual games we get for the handheld consoles.

>in a new significantly larger region not first introduced in the anime
I'm starting to get the feeling you don't know very much about Pokemon

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I'm starting to think you like mediocrity chasing coattails.

It’ll beat PS4 pretty readily.

No Pokemon region was ever, ever in the anime before the games.

I honestly think Animal Crossing is coming out this year.
>mobile app is still fresh
>audience crossover between ACfags and Smashfags is minimal
>Splatoon 2 has only had a minor team working on it since it went gold
Pokemon definitely isn't happening since we would know about it by now (and TPC don't do standard Directs and E3), and if not Animal Crossing, what do Nintendo have for the holidays aside from Smash?

I don't care what came first, I care about having something that doesn't feel like a complimentary publicity to the anime.

The last few Pokemon games got announced the May of the year they came out. I'm pretty sure. Sun and Moon might have been April.

The anime was literally invented and exists to promote the games. It wouldn't exist if it weren't about the in game region.

We could easily get a Pokemon Direct in April announcing the Switch game

I guess I just associate Pokemon announcements with the very start of the year because of XY

god this chart is so fucking depressing to look at.
gamecube most underrated nintendo console of all time sold like shit. and then the fucking worst nintendo console of all time towering next to it.

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The Wii could play GameCube games!
Also the GameCube would have outsold the PS2 if Nintendo sold it with DVD capabilities. They chose not too and lost the generation because of it.

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If it used DVDs it probably would have been hacked even quicker than the Dreamcast and killed third party support even quicker.

It wouldn't exist without the anime.

Yeah I think the ssitch is likely to beat the gamecube at this pace(also likely to be remembered as the next game cude in terms of games) but I dont know how much farther it will go after that. 30-35 mil is my safe estimate but it could go much farther than that

>publicity to the anime.

Have never met someone this stupid, I like your style

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Yes because it promoted the games. Most series wouldn't continue to exist without promotion.
The PS2 survived.

I won’t even waste a brainlet wojack on this

Did anyone really care about dvd's. Players were cheap enough.

The Switch does not fit comfortably into your pocket, I see no reason why people would buy it to use as a phone.

Because the PS2 had a fucked up architecture with the Emotion Engine and shit. Nobody was going to crack that thing.

some gamecube games didn't work as good on the wii though. also the later wii revision they released was missing the controller ports for the gamecube controllers. the wii wasn't popular because they could play gamecube games. it only sold so well because of (((casual gamers))) that only wanted to play wii sports and now all these wii consoles are collecting dust in their homes.

Neither can any modern phone these days. They are slowly approaching tablet size

Yes the PS2 sold 200m because of it.

>I don't think pokemon has that much star power.

Pokemon is literally the franchise that generates more money worldwide, beating the likes of Star Wars, Harry Potter and any MARVEL franchise

The Switch fits just fine if you put the Joy-Cons in your other pocket.

>Is it possible that we approach Wii or even DS numbers?
No
Keep dreaming
We're going to see a decent slowdown this year since Nintendo doesn't have any normie / mass-market appeal titles releasing this year.

This guy thinks the anime came first he's no expert.

Not even close to true, only notes are really that big, and huawei shit. The switch is still like 3 times the size of those phones, though. It's literally bigger than most standard pockets height wise.

Smash is that, but I agree they have a shit year.
That's just not accurate, it's like an inch bigger than most phones. If they released a Switch Mini with the sizes most people who make those mockups want, it'll be smaller than iPhones.

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Wait... did they say Smash is THIS year?
Since when does Nintendo pull a bethesda and announce and release a game the same year?
And not even show off gameplay? Nor hint at it's previous development?

>Since when does Nintendo pull a bethesda and announce and release a game the same year?
where the fuck have you been all year? arms, xenoblade 2, mario odyssey

Technically Mario Odyssey was revealed the September prior, and announced with gameplay. Also they'd been talking about it since 3D world, it was supposed to be a Wii U game.

Xenoblade Chronicles 2, ARMS and Mario x Rabbids were all announced and released in the same year

> Curved screen meme

I've used my fair share of phones with screens that bend over the edge, they are form at a significant cost to function. I would never get a phone with rounded edges like the galaxy line.

Rounded corners are still weird but not as much. I actually remember sitting and thinking many years ago about how much it would suck to have a screen with rounded corners because if you had a mouse pointer on it you could never satisfyingly shove it right to that last pixel where it can't move. You'd be stuck not knowing on the edge of a rounded corner.

>you need a cell phone to use the cell phone on the switch

This is also why people are expecting a big E3 showing, and why Animal Crossing, Pokemon, and Fire Emblem are all on the table for this year.

FE is definitely 2018, gamefreak is shitting their pants at having to put in effort for once so I think pokemon is 2019, dunno about AC

>some gamecube games didn't work as good on the wii though
Like what? There are several GameCube games that actually work better, like Metroid Prime not crashing if you load too many rooms.

GameFreak got help from Nintendo and is making it in the Unreal Engine, Nintendo still wants it to come out in 2018 so it might still be this year.
Also Animal Crossing is probably already done. I would assume they were going to make one for the Wii U but scrapped it for obvious reasons, and decided not to release it until the next system. Same reason that Sakurai started working on Smash 5 almost immediately after Smash Wii U, and Mario Odyssey didn't come out for the Wii U even though it started out as a game for it.

Why even post

I think he's autistic

The Switch has already began to slow down though, it has only sold 589k units in Japan so far this year, god knows how little it has moved in other countries so far this year, especially in the face of significant competition from the appealing titles released on PS4 this year so far, just for the first few months you've got

Monster Hunter World
Dragon Ball FighterZ
Far Cry 5
Metal Gear Survive
God of War
Ni No Kuni 2
Kingdom Come Deliverance
Dynasty Warriors 9
A load of other games

Vs

Re-releases
Kirby Star Allies
Mario Tennis Aces

Then you have the rest of the year, and discounting yearlies like Battlefield and Cod, you have

Bethesda has a new game, probably Skyrim 2
Red Dead Redemption 2
Detroit Become Human, it will probably sell extremely well
Spider Man, a trending games thanks to Spider Man Elsa, I expect 20+ million units sold
Kingdom Hearts 3
Vampyr
Code Vein
Possibly Bloodborne 2
The Crew 2
Shenmue 3
Ace Combat 7
Bio Mutant
Left Alive

Vs

Maybe Pokemon but probably not
Smash Bros for Switch
Project Octocock Diddler
Fire Emblem

there's no way that nintendo can keep up any momentum with such a miniscule lineup of games.

You know reading through this makes me wonder if Nintendo deliberately kept the early part of 2018 slow so that they could dominate in the later year at a time when Sony would be slower

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589k is already more than the 565k Switch sold in Japan up until the end of March last year, and that's with two weeks left until the same time of this year. How is that slowing down?

Dominate with what though? that's 4 games maybe, there isn't even a confirmation for Fire Emblem and it hasn't been shown or talked about in over a year, that's 1 game with an actual release date and 1 game confirmed this year to release this year, maybe Yoshi as well, that's 5 games, vs 13.

That's 3 months vs 1 month really, I'd say it's a slow down, Switch will probably waddle it's way to 1 million this year in Japan in the second half of the year, and this is without supply constraints. comparatively slow, but then imagine how slow the remainder of the year is, more than likely less than 2 million units all up, which would put it below it's fiscal year end target.

It's three traditionally slow months vs the launch month, not just any one month. There's not much merit in comparing month by month when last March was the launch month. You'll need to wait until a comparable time frame if you want to say Switch is slowing down. For now, it's up year-on-year.