I TEAR MY HEART OPEN

I TEAR MY HEART OPEN

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There are 108 double stitches on a baseball.

This will only make more people vote for him. Thanks CTR

Lions are going to the playoffs

WHEN I WAS

Okay

what happened

THIS IS MY LAST RESORT

Possible shooter at Trump speech in Reno

>he thinks CTR would actually waste its money spamming fucking Sup Forums

You realize not everyone is as autistic as you, right?

>inb4 his only response is to call me a shill

And this is going to affect him negatively how? All it does it make Clinton supporters seem more vigilant and undemocratic. (Apparently, the guy was a Republican, but I doubt many people are going to care).

hopefully he didnt miss

also

youtube.com/watch?v=pteu8ClH1uY

msnbc already blaming it on him again. the guy was a paid protester again.

Adding up all the states Clinton literally cannot lose puts her at 248. That doesn't include 20 from PA, which I think she'll end up winning but Trump still has a puncher's chance there.

Trump needs to win literally every toss-up state to win. I don't think it's going to happen.

EVERYTHING YOU SAY TO ME

Every toss up state AND a solid-blue state, for that matter.

I just don't get what the fuck is up with Nate Bronze's model. People have been saying it's shit for months, but this whole thing really puts it into perspective.

He has about a 50% chance at winning each toss up state, and he literally needs to win ALL seven of them. Yet there's a 35% chance he wins the election? I realize I'm not as up to date with the statistics, but can someone explain how the fuck this bullshittery makes any mathematical sense?

>meanwhile when the same thing happens to clinton she just stands there and keeps giving her speech

>He has about a 50% chance at winning each toss up state, and he literally needs to win ALL seven of them. Yet there's a 35% chance he wins the election? I realize I'm not as up to date with the statistics, but can someone explain how the fuck this bullshittery makes any mathematical sense?

I think it's because each state result is independent of one another. Just because he wins, say, Florida doesn't make him any less likely to win Ohio.

Exactly, so let's break it down.

Trump has to win EVERY swing state just to have a chance. There are about 5 swing states. Let's suppose he has about a 50% chance of winning each of those 5 (some are a little, higher. Some are a little less). 50% is the same chance of getting tails when you flip a coin.

What are the chances of getting tails 5 fucking times in a row? It's definitely not 35%.

hillary won like 6 coin toss in a row and her only loss came from trump in that town hall thing.

That's not true. Here's a scenario in which Trump wins, and he doesn't have Colorado, Virginia, or Pennsylvania, all of which are swing states. He also doesn't need to turn any solid blue state red either, except for the 2nd congressional district of Maine which polls have him leading in.

Hillary won the election months ago. Everything since has been for show. Wake the fuck up

Is this /bet/?

I'd say it's almost a certainty that Trump wins Michigan at this point. The numbers there have not looked good for Clinton.

Of course that's all a moot point if Clinton wins Florida. The Hispanics are pretty pissed off and are actually voting this time.

Trump has been closing the Hispanic gap recently.

>2 more days until Trumpfags finally fuck off

Feels good man

/bet/ is dead, lad.

Michigan hasn't voted Republican since Bush I in 1988, and I haven't seen a single Michigan poll with Trump ahead.

Going by current polling, I predict the map would look like this. I'll explain the grey states:

>Nevada
In the latest poll, Trump is tied with Clinton, however, the latest poll was 5 days ago, so we haven't been able to see how it's changed over this week. As well, Dems is doing very well in early voting numbers. I'd say it leans slightly in favor of Clinton.

>Nebraska 2nd Congressional District
Complete tossup. No polls done there since last month.

>North Carolina
Same with Nevada, no polls this week. However, out of the 4 done last week, 2 put Clinton ahead, 2 put Trump ahead. Overall, it averages out to lean Trump, albeit by razor-thin margins.

>Pennsylvania
Most recent poll, done this week, puts Clinton ahead by 4 points. All but one the polls done last week put her ahead. Overall, she is between 2 to 4 points ahead. However, 1 of the polls put her at tied. In summary, PA is most likely going Clinton.

>New Hampshire
Polls vary between Trump ahead or tied. 3 of 5 of them put Trump ahead, however, meaning that NH will likely go red this year.

>Maine 2nd Congressional District
Leaning Trump. No polls done this week, but the 2 done last week are split, Clinton ahead in one, Trump ahead in the other. However, RCP puts the average with Trump ahead by +0.5.

Eat shit liberal cuckold

...

Forgot this.

>voting for Trump

What's it like to hate yourself?

r8 my map Sup Forums