Brit/pol/ - Tory opposition in Scotland edition

Live Coverage:
BBC One coverage: bbc.co.uk/bbcone

user Sky Stream: instasync.com/r/happeningroom

Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additional_Member_System
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D'Hondt_method
wingsoverscotland.com/the-narcissism-of-small-differences/
news.sky.com/watch-live
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35813119
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

>SNP: 41.3% of the vote
>Zero seats

How does that work? Please explain.

First for UKIP.

They won a lot of constituency seats, which count as seats elected for the list seats under a D'Hondt method.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additional_Member_System

Can someone give me a quick rundown of "Green Party" platform other than "muh global warming, muh renewable energy, mug organic farms...
Is that really enough on which to base a fucking party?

>SNP gets 41.3% of the votes
>0 seats

nice "democracy" you have there. No wonder the Euros want you out.

The more seats you win in constituency the less you get in regional.

There's some maths behind it too.

The greens tried to push 'vote us in regional, it'll count for more' but splitting your vote snp/green really doesn't help as much as people think. It helps the cons and labour more overall.

Why are the Cons doing well in Scotland? I thought most Scots hated them because muh Thatcher

Also, any UKIP gains in Wales?

>UKIP making significant gains
>labour BTFO
yes

>Can someone give me a quick rundown of "Green Party" platform other than "muh global warming, muh renewable energy, mug organic farms...

>Money? What's that?
>Military? What's that?

A lot of their policies are maybe 200 years too early too. Great in a utopia, terrible in the real world.

>Why are the Cons doing well in Scotland?
Anti-SNP voting, Labour collapse.

> any UKIP gains in Wales?
No constituencies, wait for the list votes, they're expecting 5-8 seats of the 60 total in the assembly.

They're very left wing bordering on communist. Though it is mainly muh trees and windmills.

It's the party list part of the electoral system.
It distributes seats based on number of votes and how many constituency seats they won, the more constituency seats the less they get through the party list. It's retarded and was designed entirely to stop the SNP from forming a majority government.

55% of Scots said no to indyref, Labour was really weak on unionist talk so the Cons took the initiative and have won the unionist vote.

Silly people giving their list vote to RISE/Green/Solidarity.

Here's hoping if the SNP lack a majority they spite the Greens and try to work with unionists. Fucking horrified at the idea of what Green influence could look like.

They've always hovered around 15% support
Labour absolutely imploded and 'Yes' Labour types defected in 2015.

>Why are the Cons doing well in Scotland? I thought most Scots hated them because muh Thatcher

The Thatcher effect is somewhat overstated if you look at the numbers. It was the catalyst for a decline that had been coming since the Unionist party joined the cons.

Now the cons have managed to push the 'reasonable opposition' line and it's worked.

What is RISE?

"Respect, Independence, Socialism, Environmentalism"

Yeah.

It's more an anti-Westminster sentiment in Scotland than anti-Conservative.

Also think of it like this:

For every seat green wins by a split vote (snp/green) con and labour win 1 each. A net loss for the indy parties of 1 seat. Sometimes the libs will get one too so that's 3 for 1.

That's a gross oversimplification but overall split voting doesn't work.

Generic socialists

Also just woke up minutes before the list seats started coming in. Who /ruth/

Ruth won her constituency m8

>UKIP vote doubled in the last hour.
They still counting regional votes?

I know, I was shit posting heavily during it

nigel

ask this guy

Greens cucked the SNP out of Ed Central

Or read this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D'Hondt_method

Split voting does not work unless you really want that second list party to get seats at all costs. SNP/Green is dumb if you want to maximise indy parties but Green pushed for it on that line. It's only good if you want to maximise green seats.

You can google this up or work through the maths yourself but the D'Hondt method is elegantly set up.

Wait, to be clear:
Greens cucked SNP, splitting the vote and letting
/RUTH/ in

Fuck, I don't know which of those three is worse.

>Islam Muhammad
>UKIP Wales

>Tranny
>Muslim

>Vote Labour

There's this part of me genuinely worried that the SNP get into bed with SLab. Labour are such cucks they might go for it

...

Last time they formed a minority it was with the support of the Cons, don't worry too much.

KEK

>There's this part of me genuinely worried that the SNP get into bed with SLab. Labour are such cucks they might go for it

Labour HATE the SNP and the SNP are no fans of Labour either.

The likely situation is an SNP minority, argument with the Greens over vote splitting and an issue-by-issue vote supply from the Cons (see: 2007).

In what world did Labour think that was smart.

Glasgow Southside is filled with working class scum who are racist/homophobic/ you name it.

Glasgow kelvin is filled with students it should have stood there

Therealready the same IS supporting commies, so they're already in the same bed.

Sure, they may be opponents, but in the end they'll still vote for the same things in Holyrood.

wingsoverscotland.com/the-narcissism-of-small-differences/ is fun. (it tells how Coburn got in thanks to the Greens.)

The Greens are very pissy that Wings (for non-Scots, a pro-independence website that goes after the press for attacking the SNP. Lives in England, never voted SNP, but also as in this article calls Greens out for hurting his cause) blames them for Edinburgh Central. It's quite fun to watch.

Fucking terrified of Green influence though. I'm used to the SNP, but Greens are fucking absolutely worse in every way.

If Labour was drowning and the SNP threw them a life-vest Labour would refuse it. The tribal hate for the SNP is absolutely legendary.

Situation is massively different.

Labour have already said they would be neutral over independence, and they're trying to win back old voters who went to the SNP.

SNP are shit scared of the Tories and Labour support would be stronger than JUST the greens

>said they would be neutral over independence
Not exactly. They said Labour MPs, etc, could campaign for it.

Likely situation similar to the Tories now: Official party line is 'No' but others can go 'Yes' if they want.

'Labour for Independence' during the referendum was a joke.

Labour being BTFO on Sky right now...

I'll add onto this for anons that Wings is v. good with numbers if you can read between the blatant indy favour (at least he's honest about his bias).

Only big commentator to correctly predict the con majority in the GE, by the way.

>Fucking terrified of Green influence though. I'm used to the SNP, but Greens are fucking absolutely worse in every way.

The SNP normally throw out the crazies (like they did over Nato). I wouldn't panic too much. Nicola is smart enough to get rid of them anyway.

>Labour have already said they would be neutral over independence, and they're trying to win back old voters who went to the SNP.

Indy =/= SNP. Labour really do hate the SNP and losing Glasgow will compound that. They will NOT work with them and the SNP wouldn't risk their image doing so.

>SNP are shit scared of the Tories and Labour support would be stronger than JUST the greens

They worked with the Tories before and really are probably closer to them politically than Labour. If not the Libs exist too.

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Dugdale is a blubbering idiot

Another tory constituency, safe hold

This opposition is going to be fucking great.

when is next chance for Scotland to hold another referendum?

Link? I can't find a Sky stream working in NZ

Never if the SNP cant pull another 7 seats from a hat.

Likely if the UK leaves the EU and Scotland votes to remain

Wishing you guys lucky on BREXIT, #Can'tBarageTheFarage #MakeUKGreatAgain

WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU

news.sky.com/watch-live

RARE AS A TORY MAJORITY
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Referendum all depends on if the SNP get a majority. If they do, then very likely: If dependent on the Greens, possible, if SNP+GRN isn't a majority, impossible.

RARE

Not for 5 years if they don't have enough for a majority vote (with the greens helping).

Next chance would be if the UK votes to leave the EU next month and Scotland votes to stay in.

Likely that Lib dems and Labour msps would support independence in the case of leaving the EU with Scots voting to remain

They can't hold one without westminster agreeing

So I don't understand at all, is this election going to be a big deciding thing or just a normal every-day life one?

Westminster refusing agreement isn't worth getting into. It wouldn't be very British to overtly refuse it.

>Referendum all depends on if the SNP get a majority. If they do, then very likely: If dependent on the Greens, possible, if SNP+GRN isn't a majority, impossible.

SNP don't want a ref user. Bitching about the UK keeps them unified and popular. Hell they didn't plan for one in 2014 because nobody saw 2011 coming out as a majority. Much like the cons and the EU ref they promised it expecting to be argued down by coalition partners or as a minority government.

watching on satellite tv where I work, don't know where to stream. someone else here prob knows though...

This is state legislature but with an independence movement.

Imagine Texas with a third party seeking independence and having huge support and imagine independence was realistically possible.

It's the biggest outside a general election in a long time, lots of different stuff going on
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35813119

Yeah doesn't work here,
i was hoping proxyfag would have an international link

It's not nothing but it's not earth shaking either.

>So I don't understand at all, is this election going to be a big deciding thing or just a normal every-day life one?

The long-term effects could be huge.

Not really a "big" election, but is interesting for trends it reveals...

The Scottish election is huge

>SNP don't want a ref user
John McTernan pls.
>Bitching about the UK keeps them unified and popular
The only reason they're unified internally is to achieve independence.
>they didn't plan for one in 2014 because nobody saw 2011 coming out as a majority
They've had plans for an independent Scotland going back decades (their 1997 manifesto included a fucking spreadsheet), they wanted to hold a referendum after they were elected in 2007 but Wendy "Bring it on" Alexander got fucked by Labour internal politics and it wasn't possible.
>Much like the cons and the EU ref they promised it expecting to be argued down by coalition partners or as a minority government.
The reason it was a SNP minority and not a SNP-lib coalition was that the SNP wouldn't drop a desire for a referendum.

REEE
Is BBC still doing election coverage? Skype has stopped.

BBC is, yes. At least in Scotland.

HOLY RARE FLAG

So is it an independence movement from the EU or like with Scotland wanting independence?

Thanks the rest of you.

Looks like a minority SNP administration

Sky News still seems to be predicting a majority but I can't see how that adds up

Regions still to declare.
They could possibly get some in highlands in the south scotland and highlands.

Saved

Will there be any blowback from London now having a muzzie mayor who used to defend terrorists?

No because London is full of muzzies and muzzie sympathisers

>John McTernan pls.

Movements like the SNP always break apart when they achieve their objective. See: The Night of the Long Knives.

The SNP has the East Coast conservative/rural wing (Salmond) and the West Coast SJW wing (Nicola) and they're only held together by indy.

>The only reason they're unified internally is to achieve independence.

Which is what I said faggot.

>They've had plans for an independent Scotland going back decades (their 1997 manifesto included a fucking spreadsheet), they wanted to hold a referendum after they were elected in 2007 but Wendy "Bring it on" Alexander got fucked by Labour internal politics and it wasn't possible.

But they didn't expect to actually get a majority in 2011 or the foreseeable future (AMS was adopted to prevent that ffs). Hell polls put indy in the 20s or 30s so why would they want to call the ref then?

>The reason it was a SNP minority and not a SNP-lib coalition was that the SNP wouldn't drop a desire for a referendum.

Which was planned. They can't back down from their demand for indy without upsetting people but they really can't win that fight now.

They'll probably be a coalition with the Greens, or at least some kind or agreement.

The number of constituency seats that they got means they may not get enough list seats to make up the numbers.

Independence from UK.

Oh I believe I see the issue now. Well good luck with the outcome then.

They need another 6 or so from the remaining regions. Seems impossible.

Doubt they'll go for any formal agreement.

They can probably bribe the Greens with more money for insulation or something.

>Movements like the SNP always break apart when they achieve their objective.
I don't deny this.
My point is that they do want to achieve their objective and come apart.
>Which is what I said faggot.
You said they didn't want a referendum. [They don't want one in unfavorable circumstances, but they DO want one.]
>Hell polls put indy in the 20s or 30s so why would they want to call the ref then?
Because they believed they could build support - and in reality, they did. They took it from 20-30 to 45. For all they now try to spin it as a large victory, Darling considered 60/40 "close" early on.

>they really can't win that fight now.
They can possibly in the event of an EU referendum voting difference.
Especially because Euroshills would quite possibly support independence.

They've gained no seats on their 2011 result in the Highlands.

We'll find out soon, it's declaring now.

SNP AND GREEN LOOKING LIKELY

THEY ONLY NEED 3 SEATS BETWEEN THEM

ONE CONSTITUENCY LEFT: WAS SAFE MAJORITY FOR SNP

5 REGIONS TO GO: LIKELY ONLY NEED 2 SEATS

What are the real differences in ideology between Labour and the SNP?
Both seem like Leftism scum. The entire idea of giving the Scots their own parliament and pandering to them was a disaster.
Anyone else feel like we're seeing Europe fall apart before our eyes?

SNP+Green in now.

1 SNP and 1 Green in Highland.

SNP don't really have principles beyond independence. They've tried to position themselves as centre left in the past few years, but they're choosing austerity economics because they can blame Tories in London for it. It's populist politics.

The Tory success is a very good sign of things to come though.

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Labour hasn't had principles in ages either.

Hence why they've swung so rapidly from attacking the SNP's "something for nothing" culture to demanding tax rises.

>My point is that they do want to achieve their objective and come apart.

In the long term yes. In 2011 they were not going to win the ref so why push for it then?

>You said they didn't want a referendum. [They don't want one in unfavorable circumstances, but they DO want one.]

The didn't want one IN 2011.

>Because they believed they could build support - and in reality, they did. They took it from 20-30 to 45. For all they now try to spin it as a large victory, Darling considered 60/40 "close" early on.

They didn't believe they could IN 2011. They got too into it and started to believe they could win but that was after the fact.

>They can possibly in the event of an EU referendum voting difference.

Which wasn't on the table back in 2011. Hell it'd be brilliant for them to not have had the ref in 2014 and have it instead in the wake of the EU ref (or even before it).

Again Cameron made the same mistake with the EU ref thinking the SNP would argue him down. Granted he doesn't want it ever while the SNP only wanted to delay it until it was winnable but still.

At least they're a left wing party actually being left wing. It's a bit more honest than the SNP champagne socialist pandering

That's more to do with ideological change in the leadership though.

A lot of Labour supporters are champagne socialist.

I don't doubt it, but snp policy benefits the middle class while masquerading as helping the poor when it doesn't.

Scottish Labour policy would actually force middle class socialists to put their money where their mouth is

Exactly this. The political beliefs of their politicians are, apart from independence, more varied than probably a lot of Scots realise. If people are voting for them because of their "lefty politics", then they might be in for a shock at how right wing some of their politicians can be.