Is this the best case scenario for Trump?

Here's what I predict will happen. I gave Trump Florida because I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

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cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/GA/Dem
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Pennsylvania is expected to be the decider this time. It's flippable.

What about Florida? Ohio could go blue too.

youtube.com/watch?v=3s17pwLNBJk

TLDW:

Trump neesd PA OH FL

CO IA NC are in play

I'm from Ohio. I really doubt it'll vote Clinton. Our state republicans are pretty popular and Clinton isn't. It just takes a few NAFTA ads and her support will drop. I don't know about Florida though.

Michigan, Louisiana, new Hampshire and Maine are too

Oh wow. Do primary votes usually correlate this directly? I mean it'd make sense, but I've never looked.

Not usually, but higher turnout is a good sign

Its a fairly good indicator on the way people are thinking but of course in no way is perfect.

My problem is Trump's kinda a wild card. He brought out a lot of people who wouldn't have normally voted in the primary, and has potentially alienated a lot otherwise loyal Republicans. If anybody could defy this trend, it's him.

>tie ballgame

Don has a chance at michigan and PA

I hate how feasible this is.

Lol, Michigan here. You think redguard are going to show for Hillary like they did for Obama?

Who would the Senate pick? Could Obama veto the pick?

It is split in the supreme court too#

PA is going red.
The nogs are disillusioned by Hillary after 8 years of obama.
niggers have 0 respect for women, I expect trump to end up getting 30-40% of the black vote overall due to his appeal to blacks(aka 'swagger')

Yeah honestly trends and predictions don't really work with him. I mean jeb was supposed to be the nominee by all predictions. He wasn't supposed to win the south or religious people. He wasn't supposed to win hispanics. He is unpredictable for sure and always has surprises up his sleeves. I do see him winning the election however, I just don't know by how much and if it will be a landslide or not

Tie goes to the House. House is Republican. Trump wins!

He'll easily get Florida.

>niggers have 0 respect for women,
not exactly true, hillary is getting the vast majority of the nog vote compared to bernie

however, i doubt they'll show up in such high turnout as they did for obama anyway, and the ones that do won't be as overwhelmingly voting for the democrat

this
everyone keeps disregarding michigan but forgets that hillary lost michigan to a socialist despite every poll showing her winning by 20%++

bill clinton royally FUCKED the rustbelt with NAFTA and WTO. Clinton will NEVER win these states.
People outside of these states just don't get it. They fucking completely destroyed us. We've lost hundreds of thousands of high paying jobs to outsourcing. We're being fucking destroyed by the heroin epidemic now and nothing is being done.

NO
MORE

The currently sitting President has no say over the next President.
Also it's the House who chooses the President. Senate chooses the VP.

He's going tow in his home state you fucking retard

I literally cannot stand the election day maps you motherfuckers make on here

You all have seen what Trump has done, you know this election cycle is RADICALLY different than the last 8 yet you still post this like Cali is gonna stay blue and especially thinking Trump is going to lose New York

Californians fucking hate Hillary they still have a boner for Bernie

40% of bernie supporters will support Trump if bernie doesnt get the nomination

Hillary might not even make it to the election

Joe Biden could override the entire fucking thing and steal the nomination from both of them if he wanted

Like these have to be bait I don't know how you can be this fucking stupid to think Hillary will come this close to Trump let alone fucking beating him

I seriously hope you get run over by a lawn mower you sack of human filth

>hillary is getting the vast majority of the nog vote compared to bernie

You just made this up. These numbers are not available. Unless you have a source that I don't know about.

Also Iowa isn't going to be a swing state. Rick santorum who finished in 11th place in Iowa got more votes than the democrats combined.

Where are you getting your proofs?

>new york
>california
>red
stop posting

>Joe Biden could override the entire fucking thing and steal the nomination from both of them if he wanted
would cause a massive revolt from bernie supporters and biden would never win

Pennsylvania here. This is more true than anyone cares to admit. NOBODY HERE LIKES THE CLINTONS, besides dindus of Philadelphia. Even the self hating cucks of Pittsburgh, Allentown, and Scranton were Bernie bros, not Hillicopters. They will not turn out to vote. The blacks won't either. They like the Clinton name, although not enough to bring them out in record numbers like their boy Barack did. However, Pennsylvania IS chock full of moderate """"Democrats"""" The number of registered Democrats here is abhorrently inflated. The majority of them are farmers, coal miners, retail or industrial workers who all fell for the "Le Domocucks are for the common man!" meme, when, in reality, they're right of fucking Newt Gingrich. Trump will win.

...

>However, Pennsylvania IS chock full of moderate """"Democrats"""" The number of registered Democrats here is abhorrently inflated. The majority of them are farmers, coal miners, retail or industrial workers
this
like 200k dems changed to republican or something in the first 4 months just to vote for trump, kek

pennsylvania is one of the few states where blue dog democrats still exist

>alaska
>blue
get your head checked

No.

Colorado will be blue, and probably Florida. North Carolina is also in play, and folks here are getting more than fucking fed up with what Republicans have been doing to the state in the past several years. The hate for the current governor makes it a very real possibility the turnout will go Hillary.

So, +53 to Hillary is likely. At the bare minimum, +9 (for CO) will make it 285 - 253 as "best case" that trump can expect.

But, seriously, he's going to get BTFO.

> Texas may even turn blue for this presidential election if Castro is Hillary's VP pick

THAT will be fucking hilarious.

>North Carolina is also in play
you're a special kind of stupid

...

Even the bernouts are complaining that Hillary is getting the majority ... by a wide margin ... of black and other ethnic votes. She's creamed Bernie in all the black-heavy Southern states, while Bernie has his best showing in very white heavy contests ... and most of those he's only carried by ~4%-6%.

> SAUCE -- the news every day for the past 5 months.

you know what the best part of this is?
the timestamps are removed.
know why they are?
because it was taken over months.
A handful of posts over months.

Nobody here supported romney because we were afraid he'd get 8 years you retard

Sanders supporter here. Fuck Clinton.
>Virginia governor giving 200,000 criminals voting rights shows desperation on his part.
>Iowa is mostly white so it's not that hard for Trump to win over those voters
Nevada is 80% corporations, and 20% legal Hispanics
Trump is polling close in PA,Michigan
Wisconsin isn't as diverse, so he could win it
NH is in play and is also close
Today's quinnipiac poll has Trump at 44% in Minnesota and clinton at 35%
Hell, the new Quinnipiac poll has Trump down by 6 in NJ,
I may not get to see Sanders win, but at least we can crush Hillary's dream of becoming president.

you don't know how brown people work, my friend

he's a paid shill, look at the doublespacing — it's markdown format aka reddit.
reminder that hillary has a superPAC literally called "Correct The Record" to astroturf online discussions
zerocensorship.com/t/uncensored-hillary-clinton/257325-hillary-clinton-pac-spends-1-million-to-combat-users-on-reddit-and-facebook

Nope, I was here since early 2012, Sup Forums did not supported Rmoney when there were competitors, but they joined in the bandwaggon when he was nominated. similar to trump bandwaggon or paulbots before rmoney

and it was not an unwilling, "well I don't like him but hey at least not obama" shit, they hailed him as a hero, particularly after september.

People have a short memory here, now they shit on libertarians yet I remember a time when statist was used as a serious insult.

So don't get triggered, Sup Forums is always right.

>thinking New York won't go red for Trump

top kek
>look at the doublespacing
it's such an easy tell, every fucking time.

NCian here and Republican.

I agree that the legislature and Gov. McCrory have severely damaged the party's reputation here -- particularly among what remains of the swing vote in urban counties.

I disagree that coat-tail issues go up-ballot. The presidential candidate can boost or act as a drag to candidates down-ballot, but I don't know of many if any cases where it goes the other way.

>Oh wow. Do primary votes usually correlate this directly?

History has shown that primary votes are a very poor predictor of the general election.

I've read that the reason is likely because the candidates running the primary are closer in political views than the candidates running in the general. When the candidates are closer in their views, the voters aren't as motivated, so turnout is lower.

For example, a Democrat might not have a strong opinion about Hillary versus Bernie, so he might not bother voting in the primary -- figuring that either is acceptable. But that same Democrat could have a very strong opinion against Trump, so he could be extremely motivated to vote in the general election.

Nevada, new Hampshire, pennsylvania, and virginia AND iowa could easily switch red

But florida ohio and colorado could just as easily turn blue. We will have to see

lel, its just a habbit, I'm just a roachie giving my outside observations to your elections, take leave whatever you like. whatever suits you, can't wait you jumping to the next bandwaggon, paulbots-rmoney-trump who knows who will be next

and if trump loses, in 2020 we will have poltards like you talking about how they never supported him

I love how you deny it but reality is Sup Forums just supports whatever popular and jumps into bandwaggons

if you are still in denial, take a look at 4plebs from 2012(if they still archive that time)

Pennsylvania here.

Very purple state this year. It's a coin toss so far, slightly leaning toward Hillary. Too many people know what a fraud Trump is, since he's been in the news for decades as a "local" by proximity to New York. There's a strong right-wing base outside the major cities, but (as Romney discovered) population does not equal lad area when looking at the map.

Also, PA has a number of other Republican problems (such as Toomy and an out-of-control legislature that's been fucking the citizens hard and bloody). There's going to be turnout to change some of that, and it's likely to carry over into extra votes for Hillary.

PA is more likely to go blue than red this year. Pockets of screaming right-wing retards notwithstanding. The state was an economic powerhouse under Bill Clinton; a lot of very fond memories from his administration after the fucking the state took under Reagan/Bush I. Most people here recall very specifically that the rust belt started here and fucked the economy years before Clinton took office. A good bit of current thinking is that Hillary will do the same, and most people highly respect what she did for New York as Senator. Again, something that was in the news almost as a "local" item.

>Trump neesd PA OH FL

PA FL are Hillary

Ohio could go to Trump

Trump is finished.

You're exactly the type of mouth breathing dribbling fucking retard I'm talking about.
You come on this site acting like you know shit about politics but you don't. You've probably lurked for a month and then mimicked the posts you've seen.
You have no fucking brain you are no better than a chimp with a typewriter. You actually fucking believe that this election will be in any way the same as the last 6 elections.
Trump is getting the same type of crowds Reagan did and you believe he has no chance of getting New York?

I'm sick an tired of people so willingly stupid like yourself. If Reagan can win California because of Hollywood, WHY THE FUCK would Trump not be able to win his HOME STATE of New York.
I cannot fucking stand brainless zombies who think this election will be a cookie cutter of establishment picks like the previous 6 elections.

You are a waste of resources, you're a fucking glorified pet for your parents. You have no mind of your own.

TRUMP IS NOT RED DO YOU UNDERSTAND? HILLARY IS NOT TRADITIONAL BLUE AND TRUMP SURE AS HELL IS NOT TRADITIONAL RED.

If it was Jim Webb vs. Ben Carson then fucking maybe you could project the election map and say there's no way New York and California are going to vote Republican.

Neck yourself you braindead fucking mongoloid.

You kids are so used to your 51/49 splits that you can't imagine anything else happening.

Mark my words, this will be a landslide for Trump.

>home state
Wasn't trump born in Florida?

In this scenario, I'd also think he wins at least ONE of Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. And if he wins any of those, he wins.

There's no way Florida's going blue this election. Obama won it by

hillarys loosing support little by little in polls
come november it can look like this. im not the only one who sees a 280ish rep 250ish dem result

i give hillary flor and col because its usually blue for the presidential but virginia probably wont be blue bruh same with pa and ia

Look dog. I live in upstate New York, where its solid Trump country (daily reminder that the first Congressmen to endorse Trump, Chris Collins, represents the district adjacent to mine).

But you underestimate the amount of niggers, spics, and cucks that live in NYC.

The mother fuckers breed too much.

>Texas in play
I thought you were just a moron, but here I can tell you're full-blown retarded

>Mark my words, this will be a landslide for Trump.

LOL yeah if you faggots could ban non-whites from voting you would get that result. But that's not gonna happen and Trump is DONE

t. mexican intellectual

>I thought you were just a moron, but here I can tell you're full-blown retarded

If we could register and turnout the Hispanic vote in Texas, it will turn into a swing state, just like Georgia could be. and you the GOP will turn into a regional party forever.

Get rid of WI and VT, no chance there. NH is the only likely NE state.
Also, if you give WI and VT to the dems, you get 269-269...
That's fucking crazy that we might see a tie. I'd prefer that, I'd rather the House vote over the fucking faggot nigger cuntlicks at the electoral college

I live in Pennsylvania and won't be voting because it's pointless

I grew up in Lansdale and went all over the burbs. I used to also volunteer and work polls in elections. Hillary is definitely going to get a lot of votes. The older liberals still believe in the nostalgia of the Clinton years and they would love to have that back. She won the primary in 2008 and 2016. But God Emperor being in the race changes everything so I don't know what to say anymore.

>tfw your state will be relevant for the first time ever.
Fucking finally, living in Pennsylvania sucks. We have 12 million people, yet we're still a fucking flyover state.

They would have to be citizens first.

>Nobody here supported romney

Excepy for 5- threads every few hours screaming how /po/ was going to drink Dem tears because president Romney.

> SAUCE -- I was here and reading those threads almost every say of the 2012 election.

Those threads read exactly like the current trump threads. Delusional until the very end. I was laughing and drinking myself into a coma with entertainment on election eve while the R-Money shills were losing their shit and trying to find places to hide.

> Nobody here supported romney
> "NOBODY"

Fucking liar. I'll bet you didn't even find /po/ until a year or three after the 2012 election.

and Obama was born in Hawaii. Or kenya. Or wherever the fuck, yet Illinois was his "home state"

Mccain born in panama.

In the political field "home state" isn't where you're born, but wherever you are holding office.

Admittedly, Trump doesn't hold office, but considering he's been living in New York for quite awhile, and I'd guess a lot of his real estate in is NYC, for all intents and purposes New York is Trumps home state.

Of course winning New York will still be very hard, if not impossible for Trump. Lots of people with big lips and big noses.

Just look at the exit polls you lazy fuck. For example in Georgia, Clinton got 85% of the black vote.
cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/GA/Dem

>Living in a swing state.
>Not voting.

Nigger you live in one of the only states where your vote really does matter, vote.

I came here during 2013, so unfortunately i never got to see the meltdown that happened when Obama was re-elected, how was it?

>being this dense
PENNSYLVANIA IS LITERALLY THE ONLY STATE THAT MATTERS THIS ELECTION. ALL THE OTHERS ARE DECIDED. We are the equivalent of Florida in 2000, GET. OUT. AND. VOTE.

As a former mudslime who ran away from shitskins like myself, I can tell you there is a booming mudslime population that will vote D no matter what.

I live in hatfield, the shithole next to lansdale. I see more trump supporters here

New York is legit Trump's home state. That's where he was born and raised. And he still lives there of course.

Trump gee New York and Virginia.

But I live in a small suburban town

>I live in Pennsylvania and won't be voting because it's pointless
Dude, come on. Why not vote for the god emperor?

what does that have to do with anything?

Right, because my vote will swing the entire state which will catapult trump into presidency. Keep dreaming

Dude imagine if every trump supporter thought this way, thank god they're not all as lazy as you are. Go vote you faggot

> cutting off the qualifier

Reality comprehension problem?

You probably don't even know who Castro is, and you certainly know nothing at all about the political machine around him and his well-earned, well-deserved popularity.

If Hillary picks him for VP, Texas is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Probably shave Arizona down and make the Trump spend time/resources/money there he's going to need elsewhere.

Can't wait to see New Jesusland aka the God Empire and Cucknada.

I'm going to feel like a huge idiot if I vote and hillary ends up winning. That's like getting cucked

>being this new
pol always sided with the republican who's views are more generally Sup Forums type.

Gary johnson will take enough of the blue vote in NM that it will go red

They don't vote though.

>They would have to be citizens first.

Nice racism there bro.

>blue texas meme
Hispanic men voted for Abbott and Patrick (the Republican governor and lieutenant governor) last election.
cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/TX/governor/

>I live in hatfield, the shithole next to lansdale. I see more trump supporters here
You haven't noticed the booming population of mudslimes, mostly from Bangladesh? They all go to North Penn Mosque and dress like afghan villagers. They vote D and all the young ones use welfare and bring their cousin spouses from back home. I would know. I used to be one.

Hillary voters wouldn't vote for Johnson.

Pensylvania is THE ONLY STATE THAT MATTERS.

You are the one that decides the election.

Pennsylvania is going to be red this November

Get the digits
Screencap this post

Doing nothing is getting cucked, if you vote and lose at least you fucking attacked the guy fucking your wife.

So do I. What does that matter? The votes are counted statewide, not by county. If it were by county, there'd be a problem.
>t. Living in an awful county that's literally a perfect split between the west bein an odd mix of wealthy conservative suburbs, trailer parks, and mountain vacation homes, while the east is a 59% dindu college town. Life in the Poconos is suffering.

Not sure about the rest of Canadia but Oilberta should be red and Québec purple or green.

>get your head checked
Get these dubs checked.

You mean THESE dubs?

Utah will go blue

screencap this

>Not flipping it for Bernie at the convention and crushing Trump in November

It's like the Democrats WANT to lose.

Probably not as bad as Hatfield village. It's a cesspool for Indians and Muslims.

>the meltdown that happened when Obama was re-elected, how was it?

Fucking glorious. I was addicted, 3-5 hours a night and laughing hysterically the whole time, trolling the romney shitheads in every thread. Sup Forums had no clue, and the delusion was thick enough to walk on.

Not joking. Just hang around from now through November. Exactly the same thing is happening right now with trump. The shilling for trump is 100% fact-free, reality-challenged idiocy. There will be oceans of tears come November, assuming trump isn't committed to a mental institution before election night. I seriously wonder if he will be able to handle the daily beatings he's going to take over all his bullshit and stupid. It ain't even started yet, and he's one of the most thin-skinned jackoffs I've ever seen make a run for office. He isn't going to handle it well.

Sup Forums is going to be a carnival of stupid ending up in butthurt and tears. Sticking up on popcorn, beer and weed for the clownshow.

How restricted is Iowas democrat primaries?