It's that time again faggots

It's that time again faggots.
I'll give you the answer to start. You double your chance to win by switching

I know the "solution" to it is that you increase your odds by switching, but thats only true using razzle dazzle math. The hard and fast of it is you have a 1/3 chance to pick the door with the car at first. Then, after the goat door is opened and only 2 doors remain, you have a 50/50 chance of getting the prize.

That's wrong.
If This is true
>you have a 1/3 chance to pick the door with the car at first
Then it shut you have a 2/3 chance of NOT choosing the car on the first choice
If you DIDNT choose the car, switching wins
2/3

Oh boy. My favorite.

Mine too, but it's starting slow this time

...

switching still only gives you a 1/3 chance to get the car, if there are three doors. When there are two doors, you have a 50% shot at getting the car. 2 doors, 1 prize, you either pick it or you don't.

If you pick the car at the start and switch, then you lose.
If you pick goat 1 at the start and switch, you win because, the other goat is shown.
If you pick goat 2 at the start and switch, you also win.
So if you always switch you have a 2/3 chance of winning but if you stay, you will have a 1/3 chance.

What?
You have a 1/3 from the start
>When there are two doors
Sorry, I didn't realise you were retarded.
There is never 2 doors.

after the host of the show reveals a goat. you're left with two remaining doors and the option to switch. either you do or you don't, doesn't matter since each door has a 50% chance of having the car.

That's not how it works
There is always 3 doors.

>50% chance of having the car.

That's not true. Mythbusters tested that, and after switching they won like 80 % or so, when NOT switching they only won like 20 %. The explanation was exactly as said.

What if your first choice was the car
Then those doors have a zero percent chance

That's not at all how probability works

sure, but you're only worried about 2 of them because you know the goat is behind the other. 2 closed doors, one has a car, 50% odds

I'll take door number 3!

Ah the Monty Hall problem again

The probability from the first choice affects the probability of the second. They only seem independent because your common sense works against you

It's exactly how probability works

You know A goat is behind the other
If you chose the car first then they're both goats you idiot.
The first door doesn't cease to exist

There is no door number 6.

Goddammit.
I forgot to inb4

>The probability from the first choice affects the probability of the second.

Imagine there are 100 doors. 99 goats and 1 car.
You pick 1 door at random, let's say #1 to make it easier
Your chance of getting the car is low. 1 out of a 100, 1%
The host says "This is unfair, let me help, I will show you 98 of the goats"
So the sexy young thing on the stage, skips door number 1 since that's your pick and starts opening doors. When she gets to door #78 she skips it and continues down the stage.

Now there are two closed doors, one car, one goat. 50% chance? Nah.

The chances that you picked right the first time haven't changed. Switch and you win 99% of the time.

why would it? the host is always going to reveal a goat and ask you to switch. One of the goat doors is always irrelavent since it always gets revealed. You always know that one of the last two closed doors is a car, and the other is a goat. There could be 100 doors and at the end of the day it's still a raw 50% shot.

Anyone not saying 50/50 is just trolling move on

See this

That's some scoliosis right there.

Pure fucking gibberish

/Thread

lawl

just because you can infer that the skipped door has the car behind it doesn't make the actual odds of it being there any higher. 2 closed doors. one of them has a car, the other doesn't. 50% chance.

i dont understood

>You always know that one of the last two closed doors is a car
What if your first pick was the car?

It's retards like you that make these thhreads fun

I choose door 3 for 100% chance for a goat

What skipped door?
You could've chosen the car first which I assume would be your skipped door?

if my first pick was the car, it's still one of the remaining two doors. You have 2 closed doors, one of which contains a car, 50% odds.

Explain how 1/3 can ever have 50/50 odds?

in the example where there are 100 doors and thee host opens 98 of them after you pick one, as they open them they skip one, in the example it's door 78. So you're left with your initial pick and that one door they "skipped" (didn't open) leading you to assume that, since you very likely didn't pick the car outright, the one they didn't open has the car.

>50% chance

Sooo, 3 closed doors, = 33.33 % chance for each one, right? And then 2 closed doors with 50 % chance on each. Oookaaay. You open any one of the two at 50 % chance..... that makes 83.33 % chance all together. That is not mathematically possible. So explain to me how it would work, faggot.

Nigger

it's not an actual 1/3. the end decision is between one of two closed doors since the host is always going to open one of the doors to reveal a goat.

Because one of the doors gets eliminated as a choice you fucking retard theirs only two door left to pick from 50/50

You're more likely to win if you switch. You pick a door, it has 1/3 chance to be right, the other two have a 2/3 chance. One door of the two is eliminated, but the two doors you didn't pick still have a 2/3 chance to win, except now you know that one door has a 0/3 chance and the other has 2/3 chance. It is better to switch from your current 1/3 chance door to the 2/3 chance door

You're only looking at closed doors. You exclude the open one. You have 2 closed doors, one of which has a car behind it. The odds are 50%.

I love these threads. It's who's stupid VS who's a troll. *cough* Literally no one ever sees the correct answer

*cough* or an explanation thereof
*cough* and goes "Oh I get it! Interesting. Thanks."

>opens a door you didn't choose
retard

In swedish: Tönt!

Listen here children - youll find it easier to understand if you add more goats

Youre presented with 1000000 doors.
Behind one of the doors is a shiny new car.
Behind 999999 of the doors is a fucking goat.
You select one of the doors.
The host reveals 999998 other doors; they're goats.

You're now left with 2 out of 1000000 doors, the one you chose, and one other door.

Gee, I wonder which one has a car behind it, the one you picked which had a 1 in a 1000000 chance from the get go, or the other one, which now has a 999999 in a 1000000 chance.

Yeah, I did that here
But still,

Wizzy?

No it isn't. You already made decision to start with.
There is 3 doors.
Each has a 33.333...% chance.
Nothing can change that

Yes. So you can remove 33% from the overall odds
That doesn't make anything 50%

what the fuck do I want a car for?
score a live goat?
free sex?
winning!

inb4 "what if I want a goat?"

Nevermind, I was the retard. Apologies user

godammit!

You can't exclude any doors.
There is always 3 doors.

They almost never get it

He was 100% correct
What the fuck are you talking about?

They won't find that easier, they still think that's 50/50

initial decision simply tells the host which door to not open when they reveal a goat. Then, you're left with 2 doors, and you pick one of them to open, hoping it has a car. 2 doors, 1 car, 50% odds.

I ready regretted forgetting to inb4
Too late now.
Still waiting on "door 2 is a goats ass"

Samefag

Oh I get it! Interesting. Thanks.

No it doesn't.
Host will always have stop the can opennon matterwhatyou choose.
Stop being dumb

the host literally excludes a door for you. You have the option to stay on your initially picked closed door, or switch to the other still closed door, that's it. You have your pick of either of the 2 closed doors. one of them has a car. 50%.

Am drunk.
NOT worth conducting because your retarded and won't understand either way

ffs, this is the solution that explains why switching gives a 2/3 chance of winning, while staying gives a 1/3

Yeah, no shit. I was correcting myself

And each of those doors have a 33% chance
There can never be 50% from choice out of three

Might as well explain this to a goat for all the good it will do in this thread.

That makes no sense because the explanation was correct

That's what makes it fun

it's not a choice out of three at that point. You can't switch to the open door, you have to choose one of the two closed ones.

I get why this is hardware to understand...but you should always switch. Listen, you pick #1, the car is behind #3.
At the start you have a 1/3 chance og having picked the car. The chance og the car being behind ANY og the OTHER two doors is 2/3.

When the host opens another door, in this case #2, the chance of IT being behind either #2 or #3 is STILL 2/3, making it statistically smarter to switch.

You have to forget that it becomes 50/50, because it doesn't. It is still 33,3/66,6 AFTER the host opens a door.

The explanation was correct, I called him a retard because I thought he was wrong, then I realized that it was, in fact, I that was wrong. So, I replied to myself to correct myself. Not that hard, bro

>2k17
>being this retarded

ishygddt

This is true. The best example of why this happens occurs if you apply the same logic but with more doors. Suppose you have 100 doors and 1 door is the prize. You pick a door then they open 98 doors that don't contain the prize. Your original door had a 1/100 chance which means switching gives you a 99/100 chance of winning.

/thread

simulation in 50-ish lines of python

Yet the open door exists, and is one of the three potential outcomes from the beginning.
That open door represents 33%
Just because you know what it is doesn't make it stop existing

switch bitch

it does cease to exist as an option though. The beginning choice has nothing to do with the odds that the car is behind one of the two doors you're choosing at the end.

It actually was unlikely anyone would read it that way considering no ID's.

It looks like he explained it perfectly, you called him retarded, and he agreed

>You double your chance to win by switching
But what if I want the goat...

You have no concept of statistics or probability.
It ceases as a choice, but not an outcome.
Keep posting. Retarded like you are what keep me posting this thread

Correct + dubs.

I invite anyone doubting that switching has better odds to write (or download) a simple script to simulate it.

If you can't choose it, how could it be an outcome? Is the host just going to be like "Well i see you picked door number 2 but we're giving you this goat from the door i opened anyway thanks for playing!"?

Potential outcomes are predetermined.
Before even the first choice.

Surely you agree that your first choice has a 2/3 chance of NOT being the car?

If you run a simulation in Excel you'll see that switching is actually the most prudent decision.

You can think of it like this:
>At the beginning the probability of the car being behind any door is 1/3.
>The probability of your chosen door is 1/3, and the probability of the remaining two doors is 2/3.
>By then revealing one of the incorrect doors the waveform probability of the un-chosen doors is collapsed, giving a 2/3 probability to the door you did not select and which was not opened.

Again, simulating the choice in excel or another program will show that switching is the prudent choice.

Yes.

Damn nigga, run that shit in Excel.

i would, but that's not actually the choice that matters. The second choice, picking one of the two doors remaining after one is opened, has a 50% chance of yielding a car. There are 2 doors to choose from, one of them has a car behind it. It's simple math really.

Why would somebody shoop it like that?
That's some Cooney level skeltal bullshit

It is the choice that matterswhen you accept that IF your first choice was NOT the car, then switching wins.

You agreed you have a 2/3 chance of NOT choosing the car, so switching must win 2/3 times

I like using extreme examples.
Opening a door is actually a mechanism for the host to pass you more information, like a hint.

Imagine there are three doors and before you pick, the host flat-out tells you which one has the car.
>if you listen to him, you have 100% chance of winning.
If you ignore him, you keep your initial 1/3 chance.

That's not extreme.
That's retarded...
More retarded than the retards screeching 50%

Oh shit, didn't notice. Apologies to you too bro

Listen here you apes:

3 doors = 2 goats, 1 car
Door 1: 33% chance of a car
Door 2: 33% chance of a car
Door 3: 33% chance of a car

2 doors = 1 car, 1 goat
Door 1: 50% chance of a car
Door 2: 50% chance of a car

What ever you choose it will still be 50% chance of winning a car

The host knows where it is. If he had to pick a door, he'd get it every time.

If he _tells_ you where it is, so do you.