Moneyball

Can team-managing presented in "Moneyball" be applied to world of football (us. soccer)? Can we win the Champions League using mediocre players, mathematics and statistics?

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footyheadlines.com/2017/05/legia-warsaw-17-18-kit.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fouls_and_misconduct_(association_football)#Indirect_free_kick_offences
youtube.com/watch?v=VNkQxY0yCno
youtu.be/18sjlyoKfL8?t=517
youtube.com/watch?v=RyyGgcRqrhs
youtube.com/watch?v=37JYyU6HBSY
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No, that only applies to dumb ass stat sports like baseball

Too many variables for it to be adequately modelled, so not really

Isn't parking the bus the moneyball of soccer

Several teams are already (some version) applying it. Most famous team is Midtylland from Denmark and they won the league with it.

It's not about using mediocre players but more about finding underrated players & finding players that fit your team's playing style.

Baseball is easier to manage statistically because there aren't a ton of variables. It's pitcher + defense vs batter for the most part


Soccer has too many moving parts

It only applies to sports where you can micro manage. So like football, baseball or maybe even basketball. Free form sports like soccer and hockey, you can't manage in the same way.

Sure they can.

I find it funny when divegrass fans think their sport is beyond quantification.

Anything and everything can be reduced to statistics and math.

Doesn't mean it's guaranteed to work, though. Only give a team good odds to win.

Baseball often defies the Sabr community's predictions, however.

The most predictable sport in this case is probably basketball, which also heavily uses moneyball theory.

I invented the circle style
why teams don't play like this???

>hockey

Hockey was the first sport to move beyond simple box score stats and into "advanced stats" territory with +/-, which had much more predictive power than goals, assists, etc.

And coaches have micromanaged around that concept, becoming more selective with their line-changes and such.

Your memeing is valued and appreciated

>using mediocre players, mathematics and statistics?
That's not moneyball. Maybe try reading the book instead?

AZ Alkmaar did it in 09 you idiot

Because this isn't American football, that play would break the rules, players who aren't carrying the ball can't interfere. In the same way you can't do screens like in basketball

twas just a mental shortcut

>quantification

this is a stupid meme invented by weirdos like Nate Silver.
Now some fucker brought it to football with mediocre results. The only quantified transfer that was good was when Leicester bought Kante, but every team try and fail, see what happened at Leicester last year.
My team bought players with Opta and shit like that and we got fucking relegated this year.
Jeep your statistics and your turbocapitalist approach to sport for yourself you fucking amerilards

Doesn't work. When high volume sports it's easier to use numbers. When it comes to football one blooter and suddenly your win turns into a draw

>Italian education

>He thinks his sport is beyond science and math

It's not. Like I said, statistical approaches don't "guarantee" anything, they simply increase your odds of winning.

Luck and the human element (choking, being clutch, etc) are still huge deciding factors in sports.

>He thinks any sport besides basketball can't be completely changed by one play

Soccer isn't some magical mythical sport above the laws of statistics, get over it faggot

A statistical approach doesn't necessarily increase your odds of winning. Anyone can find a pattern in some set of data and claim it is the key to success

I still think that methods of training are more useful, when Sacchi came to Milan he changed the way they trained and they won consecutively for years. No surprise that Mou studied at Milanello

>i don't like math or numbers

third world confirmed

I'm saying it's less valuable, not useless. It works in Basketball as well because of the volume, which is what you need. For example, with a defender, you can buy cheep players with lots of Tackles/Interceptions, but those people aren't always good defenders, because the stats don't take into account something like positioning. With baseball you have one play being run over and over and over again and so it's easy to study, Football is almost a continuous fluid motion

>When it comes to football one blooter and suddenly your win turns into a draw

That's being results oriented. A statistical approach looks at the long term obviously.

Like poker. Aces often lose to trash hands and can be unprofitable over the short term, but over the long tern, the hand is the still the most profitable out of all starting hands.

Moneyball hasn't ever won a World Series.

>can't do screens

Royals won in 2015

Reminder that the Oakland Athletics didn't even make it past the first round
Regular seasons don't matter

It was blatant refball, as usual UEFA fucking Barcelona

To add to that, it also doesn't take into account the intangibles. Things like leadership, determination, heart, etc

>UEFA fucking Barcelona
I'd say it's a different kind of sexual relation

The point of Moneyball, (the book not the movie), had very little to do with using statistics in sports, that was just the lens the writer used to reflect his real point, which was exploiting market inefficiencies. You can do this in any sport, regardless of whether or not statistics can be accurately used in that sport to represent on-field performance.

So the way it would work in soccer would be the same way the A's did it in the book. They would find undervalued players that the rich teams overlooked, and use them to their benefit for cheap. I don't know much about soccer scouting, but it seems that most teams nowadays prefer small but quick and technical players and strategies, which would make big and strong but less skilled players less valued. So a team that wants to maximize wins per dollar can exploit the market by buying physical players and playing a more physical style, and it appears that's what most small clubs do.

I mean, those are still intangible in baseball as well

Do you watch the sport or just read Sup Forums memes? Barcelona always get refballed against Real Madrid, Juventus or Bayern

>I still think that methods of training are more useful,

Of course. I agree that skills and athleticism are what win in any sport.

Moneyball is simply the attempt to look beyond 19th century stats (for soccer, this is obviously goals, assists, saves, etc) that were once the standard in defining player value and find out how players impact the game beyond what is recorded in simple box scores.

If anything, Moneyball techniques are simply a statistical explanation of what scouts and coaches would verify with the "eye test."

Probably not because baseball has a draft, salary caps and free agency.

Yes, but the entire sport revolves around someone stepping up to a pitch and hitting the ball. It's much more simple

>they were bad and then they became good!
not moneyball faggot. Also they're back to being shit already.

>it took the A's win 20 in a row for people to realise a game that has stats about everything could use those stats to make better teams

Is this movie any good? Pitt is the most overrated actor ever after Depp.

>baseball
>salary cap
'no'

They started the three elite relievers in the bullpen trend because they couldn't afford good starting pitching. You don't watch the royals so I don't know why you bother to react like you did

My bad I forgot it's called "luxury tax" instead of salary cap. Same difference faggot.

It's not even close to the same thing

or PSG

I don't think this is true.
However Muller indeed fouled Alba with that screen.

What they won't tell you is this queer never won a World Series so who cares

slightly unusual flag

Moneyball isn't just billy beane you know

ello Edmundo, my sudamerican pariah

>Can we win the Champions League using mediocre players, mathematics and statistics?

No chance

Great players are obvious, technically excellent and play instinctively to adapt to any possible opposition occurrence for a whole 90 mins. How do you construct a "statistically good team" when there are limitless ways for a manager to nullify one

>No chance

>mathematics and statistics?

I didn't say weaker teams can't sometimes pull through

Really? I'm always here, although I usually shitpost is /copalib/
Hello Szymon. How is that migration thing going? Are you keeping strong boundaries?

good, we are keeping our football safe from foreign stars

Good, I bandwagonned Legia in this CL.
Hope they get in next season.

Forest Green Rovers got promoted to the FL with moneyball. Their math wizard just left for Everton.

that's kind. it was a lot of fun to see over 9000 goals per match
I hope they win the polish league because only 1 team gets to play in UCL. If it's Jagiellonia - it will be a disaster. Same thing with Lech or Lechia. Legia has a little bit more experience.

keep your fingers crossed, Edmundo
(I support Termalica because they're out of nowhere and their village has only 700 habitants or something)

It would be very interesting to learn how top teams actually decide who to buy, especially to compare how Juve decide to buy compared to say, Bayern, and Chelsea.

>Juve
>Buy
don't they prefer free transfers and loans?

What were they exploiting?

Thats awesome. Wish I could follow the polish league. Legias' kit is aesthetic as fuck.

which ones?

those guys are trying it at brentford and not really getting any sort of real improvement.

16/17
Also the new kit is gonna look gr8
footyheadlines.com/2017/05/legia-warsaw-17-18-kit.html

Moneyball didn't even work in baseball so why would you expect it to work in other sports?
The zenith of the Moneyball mentality was getting swept by the Yankees in a divisional round.
Wowitsfuckingnothing.jpg

serious answer: you can't

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fouls_and_misconduct_(association_football)#Indirect_free_kick_offences

Fouls punishable by an indirect free kick are:
When any player in the opinion of the referee:
impedes the progress of an opponent when the ball is not within playing distance of either player

very noice and subtle strip
I always liked green colour because Legia was originally a military club (CWKS)

my tactics do not include any opponent
we just hold hands, close ourselves and attack

pic rel

so you are impeding progress of opponents towards the ball without playing it (because all your TEN/ELEVEN players aren't obviously playing the ball, only ONE player can play the ball at a time): foul, indirect free kick for the opposing team, you just did lose the ball

j'admet
I would be a shitty coach :(

you tried. I'll be honest with you, I also try to find these marginal gains in the rules/new possibilities because football rules are simple but not simplistic, and allow great space for innovations (like chess)

look at this

WC '74, how Netherlands abuse off-side trap to a point never seen before
youtube.com/watch?v=VNkQxY0yCno

other tricks that aren't used enough imo
youtu.be/18sjlyoKfL8?t=517
(using the back of one of your opponents on a free throw, using the referee as a wall, doing mind tricks, etc.)

Interesting take. I think that's what Wenger did in the late 90s early 00s with Arsenal. Which is he noticed non-English players were undervalued in England (fear that they would take time to bed in and may never fully adjust) and used that fact (and the low importance given to diet and conditioning at the time) to make a great squad. Everyone eventually caught on and the inefficiency disappeared. The club to win without being the biggest investor Leicester, found a similar inefficiency in valuation of non-PL players for positions that require high discipline and workrate and relatively low skill. Of course the result here was much better than expected because of intangiables but they still did a good job. Southampton are the other PL example where they invested a disproportionate amount in the technical side of things and reaped rewards because others were more interested in investing in a saturated transfer market.

You are confusing the success of moneyball with the success of the Oakland Athletics

Moneyball is garbage.

>using the referee as a wall
wouldn't it be attack on referee and yellow/red card?

Next step to "moneyball" in football is set pieces. How come they are not worked to the death, à la American football? They are literally the only moment when you have 100% possession in opponent side, and do whatever you want. Wasting a set piece should be a crime at high level.

Lewandowski mastered free kicks

juve's squad is made 50% of players bought for peanuts when they were still young (dybala, chiellini, bonucci, rugani...) while the other 50% is old "rejects" that thay manage to fix (barzagli, pirlo, evra, khedira, dani alves). Higuain's case is an exception.

Messi obviously uses the ref but never touch him, so there is no foul. he just use the body of a sloppy ref (who should have got away more quickly) as a screen. His opponent can't touch the ref either

Passing to pedro while Messi is offside is difficult and almost impossible for the striker to run to this ball

Tony Pulis is a "Moneyball" manager and gets results with it

yeah it's good
I know jack shit about baseball and I was hooked, it can be funny as well. One thing it does is bring out the 'under the lights' beauty of a stadium at night, great photography.
le is losing fun meme scene:
youtube.com/watch?v=RyyGgcRqrhs

I think they are worked to death by the intelligent managers. It's still only about one goal per 25-30 corner kicks.

youtube.com/watch?v=37JYyU6HBSY

>as usual UEFA fucking Barcelona

LOL how entitled are the farcelona cunts? they out-uefa even Madrid, and they STILL think they get the short end of the stick.

jesus, brad pitt is as fuck

>dutch league
Literally english championship tier

Pls stop understating MU winning against Ajaks

They also beat Feeyenord 4-0 in the group stages. Dutch league is complete shit.

lol they're there for like a year or something. will need time to build this shit pal.

Which team? Source?

Except most managers don't have time to train anything. They play like every 3 days m8, you'll barely find time to actually train in this midtime

This is Monaco in a nutshell.

Check Midtjylland.

>1:12

he obviously onside. clear refball there.

>I invented
Change the ball with Messi and thats literally the argie NT for the last decade

Fellaini should just have a litle nest cut into his hair and have Romero put the ball in it so he can walk into the goal every time.

Yes it can, but you would have to get a coach with god-tier understanding of tactics

I was thinking about carrying the ball in mouth
You mean Otto Rehagel