ITT: Electoral college scenarios that are realistic

ITT: Electoral college scenarios that are realistic.

I believe this will happen.

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>PA and Iowa
>Blue

A fucking Spangle

Arizona, Florida and Colorado will go blue with a narrow defeat in Texas. Next election Texas goes blue too.

Why wouldn't Iowa be blue?

They hate Trump there. They literally chose Cruz over Trump.

Pennsylvania is possible but unlikely. It'll be close but not enough for him to win.

Pittsburgh & Philadephia suburbs drag down the entire state.

No, Texas won't go blue. Arizona is more likely though

Don't forget that third party stronk.

Yeah m8 I'm not sure about Iowa.
270towin.com/

refer to

Split it Stein

Pittsburgh area leans Clinton, but it's nowhere near as bad as Philly.

Here's what's going to happen.

I doubt it.

Republicans always say they can win Pennsylvania but never win it

Not even George Bush won it. I doubt it.

...

>Pennsylvania
>blue
>New York
>blue

You're a shitposting sensei user

Posting realistic map

That's a very fair map. I've seen many delusional supporters saying NY will go blue.

Hillary does have an electoral college advantage. She literally just needs one moderately large swing state to win.

Trump needs all the large swing states.

Pennsylvania was fucked when the steel mills closed I think Trump might be able to play on that. Even all these years later it still stings them.

What is this VA being blue meme?

I know they do, but go through the scenarios here.

Bush came close, but he was a Texan with extreme social conservative views.

McCain lost because Obama was going to dominate anyway.

Romney was an absolutely terrible candidate all around, I knew he had no chance back then.

Trump, however, is the sort of populist Republican that can win PA. Clinton will have major trouble in the Rust Belt.

***I mean NY will go read***

Current polling actually has Clinton with a wider lead over Trump in Virginia than PA.

Pretty close to my map.

I have NH, CO, and VA different from yours.

CO has a ton of new hispanics since the 2012 election.

>Virginia

>Blue

NoVa doesn't think so.

>Michigan

>Flint Crisis

>Blue

Nice try

Philadephia and Pittsburgh just seem too pro-clinton

And the Dem primary still got MORE voters despite Dem turnout down and Republican turnout up

No reason for VA to go red. They literally almost voted for Rubio over Trump.

NoVa just likes Clinton too much and hates Trump too much.

excuse me *

> Flint Crisis

> Red **

>No reason for VA to go red.

I think VA will eventually go blue in the future, because of increasing NoVa dominance. But demographically, it's still too early. Give it 8 to 12 years.

Same story for NC, but with a longer time horizon.

sosi hui

>Suburbs
They're not the problem m8, Suburbs are largely conservative. (See the Republican Primary Turnout in Delaware County vs. Philadelphia County.) The only consistently liberal regions are the Cities themselves, the suburbs are essentially swing counties. Pic related, I live in the north part of the blue region on the east border, and I can say, there's been a noticeable change in attitude lately. Even the New York transplants and Scranton, Allentown, and Stroudsburg fags have been taking on a slightly more conservative approach over time. The only reason Wolf was ever elected was because Corbett was a blatantly corrupt scumbag. We did elect Obama twice, however not by much on the reelection. I know PLENTY of people who were Obama voters, who are now saying they've fucking had it, that if Bernie gets fucked out of the nomination, they're staying home or going for Trump. Oh, and every woman I've ever discussed this with REALLY fucking hates Hillary. Like, more than the full blown Conservatives.

>And the Dem primary still got MORE voters despite Dem turnout down and Republican turnout up

Yeah, but barely. Clinton got 935,000 while Trump got 902,000. It's gonna be close, but with 5 months to go until the election, you bet your ass he can flip it.

>Most peoples maps show VA as blue

Can you guys do me a favor and stop it.

sak mi dik

>everyone who i talk 2 hates hillary therefore she will lose!!! xD

Holy FUCK anecdotes are terrible.

The state is still swinging to Hillary.

PPP poll showed Trump up in PA and now he's tied.

Pennsylvania is staying blue

>Arizona
>Blue
I hate this meme, but slowly I realize that without a Trump presidency, it won't be a meme any longer.

Where did I use anecdotal evidence fuckstain?

I think VA should be toss up too

Trump has to win every remaining state to win

possible not probable

I didn't mean to reply to you but also, it doesn't matter it's still leaning blue.

He'll come close but it won't be going red.

slava ukraine

I doubt Virginia will go Red.

>what is math
doesn't need NH or CO

Sorry then. Definitely gonna be close. The election will be largely decided by how he does in PA and Virginia. If Clinton wins both, Trump loses.

This is the most realistic map. Hillary will probably win, but very very slightly. It shows how weak and pathetic of a candidate she is.

SPLIT IT STEIN

more likely than NH

ok?

I agree with this except for VA.

welcome back

ya ne robot

I think if Hillary wins, she only lasts 4 years. The republican nominee will probably end up being someone more conservative than Trump, like the Canadian.

It's hard to say which way Florida will go.

Trump has stated that he disagrees with the immigration policy between Cubans and the US. They'd probably be worried that he'll get rid of the wet feet, dry feet policy.

Actually, the Iowa GOP has done a damn good job of getting behind the Trumpinator. My county only had 14 people vote for him, but now we're all behind him.

vy cyka

>PA
>blue

its like you faggots can't even read polling or vote totally in purple districts

>more conservative than trump
>yfw hillary is more conservative than trump

As predictable as this is, Trump's still not even shared the debate stage with her. Give it time. And it's not just anecdotal. It's a matter of PA's voting patterns, demographics, and state-level issues. We have probably one of the WORST, most volatile job markets out of any state in the union, under the rule of none other than, the Democrats! We're the least cucked of the Northeast states. Getting concealed carry here is a walk in the park compared to New Jersey, Maryland, New York, etc. We have the most Hunters of ANY state period, at over 1,300,000 Registered deer hunters. That's over a million conservative votes based on "muh guns" alone. The Economy here is fucked, and it's no secret that Clinton is a fiscally irresponsible cunt. Nobody likes her except for inner city Basketball-Americans.

do you have 15 people in your county?

NH is less diverse and more white, that's why it's more likely.

Remember Virginia almost voted for Rubio over Trump. It's "establishment"

Not an argument

>AZ
>Blue
Are you even trying

LOL Iowa blue just cause you règnent him losjng the primary as if that means anything.
Trumps gonna turn perhaps every state red.

net vy

I am now a #Hilldawg and a #ArtilleryForHillary!

WOOF

>its like you faggots can't even read polling

Latest two polls are a virtual tie.

See those 3 light blue districts above philly?

Yeah, all of those had Trump beat both hillary and bernie by tens of thousands of votes, and had 80k+ people swith party affiliation to vote for Trump

Thats enough to flip the entire state, not even including the western districts that had the same thing happening.

My shitty free russian language lessons end there

I was about to say that. No doubt this election will expose her with Trump detailing all her baggage and corruption, but many people fearing a Trump presidency will hold their nose and vote her in. In office, people will be even more disgusted by her and her actions (she has very high unfavoriability ratings) that she will lose to the Republicans in 2020. She's going to be a one term president. #OneTermHillary.

Unless the Republicans have a really shitty candidate, which I doubt they will in 2020 (if Trump loses 2016).

Nevada and pa are red this year

>NM
>NV
>IL
>going blue
>not giving Trump New York
Come on sempia.

Maybe so. I was just going off 2012 results
VA: Obama 50.8 %
NH: Obama 52.2%

This is what I expect. A narrow win for Hillary.

ok

Do candidates usually run twice? can they?

STUPID PINDOS SAK MI DIK AXAXAXA

And the area of polling on both of those and the one last year with Trump down 2 both included philly, which is irrelevant to winning the state.

You only need two electoral districts to flip, and currently 4-5 saw tones of people leave the democratic party entirely had had Trump votes surpassing all democratic votes

They can. Reagan ran 3 times and won the 3rd time.

However if Trump loses this race he says he won't do it again, that it will all have been a waste of time and he'll go back to his business and play golf.

Wait what are you saying?

More people voted in the dem primary

When will you learn. Never underestimate the god emperor Trump.

I think Nixon ran twice, and so did Reagan (idk about this one either).

Ill believe you when there's an actual poll showing Trump up by +2 or +3 in Pennsylvania

Trump will win PA

Fuck off shill

A libertarian can dream

They can run as many times as they want.
If they lose in the general they typically don't run again.

A libertarian can be kinda realistic

...

A libertarian can wake the fuck up to the cold hard realities of life

Dream of a Clinton presidency?

Why is not winning and yet changing the outcome of the election a "dream"

When the aggregate polling shows Trump up in PA i'll believe u

cause i have shitty dreams apparently

Thats the most retarded map ive ever seen.

Only if you include philly and pittshit, which are guarenteed blue

Thats where the bulk of dem votes come from

Trump beat both of them in all the light blue areas like northampton, wilkes, monroe etc that actually matter to winning the state as a republican

not only did Trump beat them in these critical areas, but the dem party lost almost 100k voters

I know what you're talking about.
I was tripping balls on mushrooms trying to masturbate while listening to Gregorian Chants. Trying my damnedest to think about raping an Asian woman in a restroom.
Unfortunately, I wasn't able to conjure visions of a terrified Japanese girl turtling as I bust into a college bathroom at 2am on a Saturday, wasted with my cock out, holding a rotary phone to bash her face in a few times before the rapening happens.

Instead, I'm laying there on my bedroom floor with a toilet brush in my ass, wearing my little sister's dirty panties, cock in hand with my cat laying on my chest purring. While I desperately try to cum, to sleezy thoughts, listening to horribly homoerotic chants about the bible or something.

Longstory short, I was viciously beating my dick for 3 hours. (gonna have scabs in the morning).
When all of the sudden, I'm in the glittery/gold nebula like whirlwind with pulsing stars and faggot angels playing the musicale instruments.
"Oh shit!", heading into the light. Meanwhile, disembodied floating heads of Albert Einstein, Nikola Tesla are judging me for wasting my potential.

FINALLY came after 5 fucking hours after opening my bed room door to expose my self in the hall way. The thought of getting caught by my mom and sister's was what finally did me in.

Best nut in my life swear I laid in the opening listening to my sister's and talk over the Movie Lion King for about 30 minutes, while orgasmic juices slowly oozed out of my dick for the entirety of those 30mins.

I'll never forget that moment I saw the light and felt God. Nirvana

>statewide polling
>relevant

Its about as accurate as national polling vs. swing state polling for who has a better shot in the general

sampling 1000 people out of a state of 12 million is about as helpful as sample 10 thousand out of 320 million

focus on the districts needed in PA to win, which Trump takes all of

There has been an awakening... Have you felt it?

so they don't count all of sudden cuz they vote dem?

They have always voted dem, including when republicans won the state.

They are not relevant to winning, and even if there were 10000 million dem votes in philly that still wouldn't help them win wilkes

thats not how out voting works

So pitt and philly are automatically blue, its the light blue areas that are actually important where (once again, which you can't seem to understand) Trump is destroying clinton and sanders by a huge margin

...

>NEW YORK
>HILLARY

Please can morons stop doing this. It's like you don't even understand the dynamics of this election.

Huge support for trump down here in FL and a good portion of our hispanics are cubans that lean more republican than most other hispanic demographics.
Trump is going to have to push hard and play it somewhat safe to pull out a victory, but it's possible. Just need our swing state buddies in Ohio to get on the trump train and we're golden

And thus we are great again

i think so to, unfortunately its be the queen of the cunts for 8 years. BUT after that, if we survive it as a country...the white man shall rise to GOD KING STATUS AND CONQUER THE WORLD .

Is VA that soildly blue already

>GA
>blue

Nate Silver plz

well fuck