What are some movies about probability?

What are some movies about probability?

door number 2 is correct

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How the fuck does switching doors increase the probability?

nice dubs

switch to the open door obviously. next question please

Kek

The door you pick has a 1/3 chance of being right, the open door has 0/3 chance of being right, so the other door has a 2/3 chance. Or something like that.

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ofc bb

50/50

no

Real men don't get tied to train tracks. The only man in that scenario is me, the big guy at the lever. Therefore.

Instead of 3 doors, imagine 100. If you picked 1, the host then opened 98 of them, and then offered you to switch, would you?

>there are people on Sup Forums who are not trolling but genuinely still believe this

only pull the lever if you feel like it

how does that make the problem any more transparent?

Go watch mr nobody. Or play or watch bioshock infinite.

The odds of it being my door just went from 1/100 to 50/50 so no.

Imagine it more like this. There are 100 doors. You can either pick door 1 or every door from 2 to 100

We both know you'd drive the trolley backwards twice to run over everyone if you felt like it, Max.

So you're a retard.

If you pull the lever, or if you don't pull the lever, you get stuck in cycles of your own guilt. No matter what you do, you've already killed your mentor, and yet you are not his murderer.

not him and it doesn't really, but now here's a 1/100 chance that you picked the correct door in the first try, instead of just 1/3 (which is still less than 2/3).

HPMoR: The Movie. Coming 2019 as part of the extended Harry Potter universe.

Are you clinically retarded?

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opening the doors doesn't give you any more information than you had when you made the initial choice of door. No matter which door you chose, you knew he would then open all but one of the rest of the doors whether you pick the right door or the wrong one. That's why it's not a 50/50.

what the hell is your 'moral best interest'

utterly meaningless, that's what

This is astronomical retardation.

We should have the Monty Hall problem in every thread to filter out the low IQs.

Do people get confused because there are two goats?

Instead imagine there's a car, a goat, and a cow.

You have a 1/3 possibility of picking the door with a car behind it. The host can then reveal either a goat or a cow. You will therefore lose if you switch.

You have a 1/3 possibility of picking the door with a goat behind it. The host must then reveal the cow. You will therefore win if you switch.

You have a 1/3 possibility of picking the door with a cow behind it. The host must then reveal the goat. You will therefore win if you switch.


3 possibilities, each 1/3 likely. In two of them you win if you switch, in one you lose if you switch.

>too lazy to draw phoneposter

>Train coming to fork
>Left track has one person tied that will definitely die
>right track has 2 people a quarter mile away
>there's a 50/50 shot they can get untied before the train gets there

Monty will never open the door you've picked, and will always pick a door with a goat.
If you work out all the possible outcomes it works out to 2/3 in favor of switching

is it a meme to call people retards for not getting the monty hall problem? it's pretty common for people to not get it, especially those without a maths background

how good is this game

>it's pretty common for people to not get it
This is barely even mathematical, it's pretty much just abstract thinking ability.

It's ok

holy shit you are fucking stupid. this is like day one probability theory, very VERY easily explained and you got it wrong.

It's a pretty solid shooter with some pretty cool features, but it's broken as all hell. I personally love it, but I can understand why people don't.

kek you didn't even try to explain it, dummy

It's in line with the rest of the posts in this thread

that's exactly what maths teaches

>it's pretty much just abstract thinking
...so, mathematics?

It's not true in the real world though, not among 3 choice problems anyway.

It completely ignores that the host isn't opening doors at random, he is only opening doors he knows aren't the correct one.

>If you work out all the possible outcomes it works out to 2/3 in favor of switching


So wait. HE doesn't pick my door 100% of the time and the door he picks always has the goat?

So the prize is most likely behind the door nobody chooses.

Wait, if he always picks a goat door the he knows where the prize is too.

it technically does, but in reality it doesn't matter. initially you have a 1/3 chance of picking the correct door at the beginning. once he opens the door with the goat, if you switch doors, then your chance goes from 1/3 to 1/2. For whatever reason, turbo autismos believe that your 1/3 chance doesn't change to 1/2 with the opening of the goat door.

you'd think these people were raised in common core schools.

this is like one plus one equals 2. it is soo fucking easy. You fucking STAY you get an extra 33.3 percent

I will never get this.

now this is shitposting.

Fucking this.

Absolute retards think switching will improve their chances, when in fact if the host opened a door the host knew wasn't the correct door, than EITHER remaining door is 50/50.

People keep trying to use examples of 100 doors and hosts opening 99, which would actually improve your chances by switching, but that isn't the same as a 3 door problem.

Not a meme, although people who don't get it are probably trolling. Even the girls got it in my probability class

It's not true in the real world, it's only true in the heads of retards.

But how does my initial door choice not go from 1/3 to 1/2 too?

in easy terms

there are 2 goats and 1 car so you probably picked a goat, so is better switching

The door problem is fake and gay

You would still have half a chance if the goat door was opened. Why the fuck is a got behind one of the doors anyway?

It is true in the real world. Then the guy reveals the goat behind one door, the player receives no new information. The choice is between the initial door and ALL OTHER doors. We already knew that no matter what door we initially choose, the host will open a door to reveal a goat.

If you originally pick a goat door, the host opens the other goat door, meaning switching to the remaining door gets you the car.

If you originally pick the car door, switching gives you a goat.

Two of the three doors are goat doors, therefore you have a 2/3 chance of winning.

>Even the girls got it in my probability class
I find this to be improbable.

The host picked a door that wasn't the car.

The remaining 2 doors are 50/50, both have the EXACT same chance.

HERE IS HOW THIS WORKS FUCKERS:
pick one out of three. your choice has 33.3 percent of being correct. then they take one choice away. (here is were it gets confusing) they know for sure that the one they picked to reject is not a winner.!!! (ding ding ding) they just gave you a choice of 50/50 plus the 33 percent you had before when you picked one out of three.

50/50 is a movie, genius

Originally your odds are 1/3 of getting the car, 2/3 of getting a goat. A door is revealed that isn't the car. Doesn't matter what the host of the show knows or not, if you switch, you just increased your odds to 2/3 because you're using the new information to your betting advantage.

But if you simulate this on a computer the proportions of results tend towards the theoretical probabilities... Computers confirmed for retards.

RETARDED FUCKING IDIOT!

That's why you switch. You have 2/3 chance of picking a goat initially.

Funny that the people in this thread that don't get it are calling everyone else retards.

If you think about it, wasn't Inception them going deeper and deeper to reroll the dice until they got a favorable outcome?

The host will under all circumstances open a door
If you switch between the remaining 2 doors you have a 50/50 of getting the car.
If you stay with the door you chose you have a 50/50 of getting the car.

the host opens a door after your first pick, you had a higher chance of picking a goat so its better switching

your first pick doesnt suddenly dissapear

The one universal and unquestionable objectively correct answer: None of this shit matters and idiots actually pay thousands of dollars to study this garbage at a university level

Kek

>The host will under all circumstances open a door

The host opens a door *which has a goat behind it*. Not the same thing as opening a door at random. Conditional probability nigga.

It's not that fucking hard to understand, jesus. Just work out every possible outcome and you'll realise how changing is the best option.

The host must open a goat door AND he cannot open the door you picked.

There are 1000 doors. You pick one. The host reveals 998 goats.

Do you switch, or do you think you got the 0.1% chance on your initial guess?

FUCKING IDIOT!
kill yourself if you are this fucking stupid

OK, I'll have extra buffalo sauce with my mcnuggets please

i didn't know someone could be this fucking retarded

>math grads eat at mcdonalds
sounds about right

Stop overcomplicating it. With the way it's set up, switching will give you the opposite of whatever was behind the door you chose. That means a 2/3 chance of switching from goat to car and a 1/3 chance of switching from car to goat.

>needing extra sauce
Couldn't even divide the sauce up evenly. How pathetic.

Faggot if it was easy to explain there wouldn't be hundreds of videos with millions of view explaining it. It's un-intuitive, meaning if you understand it right away you either study this shit or are a mathsperg, in your case prolly both

are people really this fucking shitty at math? all of you are fucking wrong!!!! like really very VERY easily provable wrong and yet you are so secure in your delusion.(over inflated sense of intelligence)
FUCK!

>(over inflated sense of intelligence)
It's called liberalism.

This scenario makes assumptions about the host, his knowledge of the situation, and his willingness to reveal information about the situation that should have no place in a scientifically controlled probabilistic scenario.

i agree!

so many brainlets ITT

IDK why you all give a shit about some fufu lame shit riddle that was in an ashton kutcher movie.
This is riddle kino

READ THIS.
if you don't understand ask me q's. otherwise you are a fucking idiot if you said to switch

the truth: people who think they're smart for understanding this problem are very easily trolled on Sup Forums because they're desperate to show off their perceived superior intellect and explain it to others.

agreed, i like this riddle a lot

>look it up
>first result is xkcd aka reddit: the comic
kino my ass

>guys stop making me feel dumb for not understanding the problem! ;_;

this is literally what you sound like

You can simplify it further.
>pick one door
>you can change it with another
>you now have a 50% of winning

The Gambler, though it isn't a very good movie. I don't know any good ones about probability.

Imagine for a second that the problem starts after the host opens a door, pick a door from either of the remaining doors.

Are both remaining doors equally likely to have a car or a goat?

If so, then that's where you left off at prior to the point that the host opened a door.

kek

i'm sorry but i am above being trolled by the likes of you.

This is it

it doesn't really matter because you're only going to pick once, not millions of times

It is the same, that's math nigguh

well the point is that you can pick twice if you choose to.

why are the people on this board so stupid?

because you're skewing the statistics