Well, it's finally happening Sup Forums
US 10 yr Treasury bonds yields the lowest ever, and German bonds yields declines below zero for the first time in history on the back of slow global growth and the possible Brexit.
Prepare your anus for the bubble to burst, lads.
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What do you predict will happen once it bursts??
What always happens. The market goes back to what it actually should be valued at and tons of normies lose their retirements.
-.008
you buy one and owe money?
and this is the math that runs a country?
Isn't it possible that low T-bond yields and low interest rates are a new equilibrium/market clearing level, rather than a temporary thing?
Thats apparently what you get for secure monies
t. Shlomo Shekelsteingoldberg
Sure, but that would mean that we're stuck at close to zero growth forever.
Oh wait.
There is no sign of interest rates ever going up. However, what governments should have been working on is about a 5% inflation rate. 2 is too low for normal economic development. 5 % isn't unhealthy for an economy. Trouble is, if we have to inflate out of this economic stagnation, we could have runaway inflation, which will lead inevitably lead to higher interest rates.
Its the rich boomers and merchants who whine about moderate inflation, therefore why we have this ridiculous obsession with near 0 inflation
But the whole system is f'ed now with so many distortions and based a lot on speculative assets and futures,the whole thing is a house of cards made near a cliffface with a strong breeze blowing
Low treasury yields are not indicative of a bubble about to burst as a general rule of thumb. As a bubble bursts, you will see them fall as people gt out of riskier investments and get into the safe investments (UST) thereby increasing demand (and lowering yields). That said, we are probably 6 months - 2 years out from another recession. Last time it was mortgages, this time it will be subprime auto loans. I would say student loans are at risk, but because they are federally backed there will be no violent burst.
No, that's rlative to UST. It doesn't have a negative ROI.
But Japan's debt-GDP ratio is 200+%.
Then again I am aspie so idk
nigga it's all about those 20 yr treasury bonds
Japan is always a weird case. So, they've been in deflation since the 90s when they tried a QE program which had catastrophic results. Because deflation prioritizes saving (an object will have a lower price tomorrow than today as opposed to usual where the opposite is true), you have less spending (spending of course being the exact thing that would pull you out of deflation).
Money is a social construct.
When you say student loans are federally backed, do you mean federally enforced?
...
So they're essentially fucking themselves by trying to unfuck themselves, but changing it up would fuck them hard in the present?
precisely
It isn't. No real investor would accept losing money to inflation. This is central bank manipulation to the extreme to lower yields and making it easier on governments to reissue debt. The yield should be much higher to match the risk.
I meant that many of them are federally backed (ie. the government pays them if the student can't, but the student then owes the government), so it's as if you lent the amount of money to the government. Basically, there is no risk for the lender, they get paid by either you or the government. If you default on them the government pays them, so there is no issue like there was with mortgages.
There are some loans that are not federally backed, but the fact that they are enforced (as you mentioned) means that you can't default on them (or you can, but you can't discharge the debt or anything) and if you decide not to pay, they garnish your wages, making them considerably safer than something like mortgages.
Kind of. The issue is that they fucked themselves by effectively stepping right inside the event horizon of a black hole. We have no idea how to get out.
That's keynesianism for you.
The developed countries can go longer without feeling it's effects, especially burgland because the whole world eats out of it's hand, but reality comes.
Why did you think Soros just moved his assets into gold?
This is going to go down and there is no stopping it. The only thing you can do is get out of the way.
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Kek. The sheer fact that "everyone eats out of [our] hand" means that your 'reality' won't hit. The USD being the world's reserve currency and the US Treasury being the "risk free" asset upon which all other assets are priced according to risk guarantee this. There is no impending 'reality', the world isn't fair. You're just unlucky enough to have been born in a really shitty country.
I can't understand what you said because language is a social construct
>but changing it up would fuck them hard in the present?
This shit is kinda like getting fucked in the ass but you don't want to get fucked in the ass so you constantly scream stop and tell them to slow down. But that way they never achieve orgasm so they will just fucking you.
What they should do is bite the pillow and let the market (the dick) correct itself (have a blow out). But now they have been fucked for so long that they are really sore so if they do that now its going to be even more painful.
Get it?
>mfw this is what americans actually believe
How can you guys be behind India in treasury bond yields?
The bubble already burst.
It is just not reflating.
Come at me.
Oh, I didn't realize that you studied finance in college and now work in the field? Where did you go and what bank/firm do you work for? I bet you're just as financially illiterate as any given Bernie Sanders supporter.
> What they should do is bite the pillow and let the market (the dick) correct itself (have a blow out).
Yeah... that's not how deflation works.
because whites are inferior
The only time in life where it's good to be poor/broke.
Being born in the USA does not imply you are well off because it is not a shitty country. It may be even worse considering how terribly unbalanced and unequal your society is.
>he paid the jew to study usury and expect them to teach him the truth about their jewry and usury
>mfw
>bonds yields
>bubble to burst,
confirmed retard.
PEPPER YOUR ANGUS
>High bond yields=less secure investment
STOP NIGGERS WE HAVE A FUCKING SHOOTING ON OUR HANDS AGAIN GET IN HERE NOT SURE IF SHOOTER AT LARGE
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hmm, makes sense. Thank you upside down Poland.
>All my retirement savings and other savings are stashed in gold and bitcoins
Come at me, financial crisis.
>bitcoins
have fun with your erasable money
Stop falling for your textbook fucking memes. Low inflation is good in all ways. You've been brainwashed by economists on crack.
Yeah, 1929, 2001, 2008 send their regards.
It is not bursting.
We set up the Eurozone, so we do not have to pay any interest for years to come. Our strategy is to get our debt below 50% of GDP until 2019 and then below 35% by 2025.
>erasable
Nice meme.
Also, I'm cashing out on bitcoins soon when the current price surge slows down and reinvesting it in silver.
>Our strategy is to get our debt below 50% of GDP until 2019 and then below 35% by 2025.
So you're expecting immigration to pay for itself?
ITT: people who have no clue how yields or interest rates work
>gold
I hope you are just hedged
>So you're expecting immigration to pay for itself?
We would currently have massive budget surpluses without the illegals - we spend this surplus money on them.
LOWER YIELDS does not indicate economy collapse
Sounds good, just buy free housing/healthcare/college/prison/condoms/food for 250,000 more refugees per month, and that goal will be reached!
>ITT: people who have no clue how yields or interest rates work
tell us then. I think the current German bund yield curve is absolutely ridiculous.
the lower interest rates on bonds THE MORE money you make with them
Immigrants have a positive boost to the economy and put in more than they take out.
oecd.org
Only physical gold.
>Sounds good, just buy free housing/healthcare/college/prison/condoms/food for 250,000 more refugees per month, and that goal will be reached!
We are already doing that.
Im afraid I dont check the german curve, how is it looking?
I hope you bought at around 1000
> implying I didn't go to school on scholarship
> implying I'm not making mountains of money by working for an investment bank
Ok, you do you. That said, you're clearly a fucking idiot.
Yeah... so that's not 'reality' catching up to the US, those are examples of economic downturns. The economy is cyclical, plus you forgot something like another 15-30 downturns in US history. Everyone has them, they're a fact of life and in no way indicate the demise of a country. If your mom didn't have the zika virus when she was pregnant with you, you'd probably know that.
In the upcoming 20 years you should invest in the US treasury
>Immigrants have a positive boost to the economy and put in more than they take out.
t. George Soros
Enjoy your future
You would lose money from this because of inflation
>>Muh uneqwaliters
Literally all of the people who are considered 'poor' here have at least some place to go, have
a TV, a Car, and a meal on their table every day.
If you're any worse off, then you're doing something wrong. The homeless for example
tend to have some sort of major mental malfunction going on with them that would
cause their situation. Surely, there is the occasional person who falls to that level because of circumstances, but even the black
people tend to get out of it just fine.
I don't think that's actually true. I think that because illegals don't have social security numbers, they aren't eligible for welfare and such, but they do pay taxes (they use a tax identification number or something like that, they don't need a ss#). I mean, we do have plenty of them in our jails, so there's money going towards them. That said, I am really against illegal immigration (and also against accepting refugees, frankly, it's just not our problem and we don't owe them shit).
Soros is not an investor, HES A SPECULATOR. anything soros does should not be in consideration of an economy
Jesus fucking christ I just bought 10k worth of the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund (VOO).
Did I literally buy in at the peak of the bubble?
> play it safe, buy gold
Way to pick one of the least predictable assets in the market.
> enjoy your future
Kek, sounds more like your present you cuck. We probably won't have to actually deal with any of the refugees.
I began purchasing gold at $1300, right around January 2014. Only bought 1 oz. Since then I have invested my savings in gold twice, once every January 2nd.
2015 I bought an additional oz. (I was a student at the time)
2016 I bought 10 oz at $1060/oz.
So yeah, most of it comes from the $1000 point.
>least predictable
in 1950, 1 oz of gold could buy you a really nice suit. in 2016, it buys you a really nice suit.
Too bad the guy you're responding to is retarded. But yeah, you're right. Soros makes moves in an attempt to move the market and capitalize on this move he expected. This isn't even that, though, it's basically just opinion.
Who knows, I think we are heading towards a recession within 6-24 months, though. If shit begins to look bad, try to buy a fund made up of US Treasuries.
The whole damn system is flawed.
Can you give me some advice ib bro?
I am young (25), and investing through an online brokerage account.
I have been dumped in 20k each of the last two years and plan to keep saving at this rate.
My mix is 66stocks/33bonds. I can rebalance almost for free, I am so worried that a market correction is coming, should I rebalance it to be more safe soon, then get more aggressive again after the market bottoms out?
Im worried another 2008 is coming and I lose 30% of my shit I have saved.
>another 2008 is coming
It's gonna be way worse than 2008, lel
>Soros is not an investor, HES A SPECULATOR.
Well i guess he is speculating in phsyical gold then.
>anything soros does should not be in consideration of an economy
Yeah ofc, i am sure his little involvement in Ukraine didn't affect their economy at all.
What makes you say that?
LoL
We printed our way out of 2008
Because the 2008 was caused by the government fiddling the economy and was mitigated by more fiddling, the mitigation stops the fall and props the bubble fuller and higher, now the fall will be from a greater height and so will the damage.
>What makes you say that?
Maybe the fact that the problem was fixed by just stacking 9 trillion new debt on the existing 9 trillion debt that you all ready had.
How did printing lots of money drive up asset prices to such a great extent?
I thought the primary driver of values of stocks was the firms fundamentals, thinks like profitability, market outlook, etc etc.
>We printed our way out of 2008
borrowed*
much better
I would like to see them make a dead man pay! We'll get the last laugh one way or another.
You have to understand, by the time you hear "soros invested in gold" in the news, its too fucking late for you. Whats gonna happen is, everyone sees soros buying gold, OH LOOK IF I BUY GOLD ILL BE RICH LIKE SOROS, everyone buys gold, gold prices are high, all of a sudden soros sells all his gold at the top price, leaving everyone elses gold worthless
Credit default swaps were invented in the private sector and shadow banking system. The stimulus ended in 2010 and since then it has only been fed policy.
government debt didn't cause the last recession. Its not what is going to cause this on either.
I"m not an investor or an economist or anything but I see a few signs. Predicting the economy is like predicting the fucking weather. Storm clouds on the horizon could mean nothing but
>Homes are really valuable, but it doesn't seem to make sense given the low rate of marriage. Same value during 2008 in fact
>Little job creation - Usually means a recession
>Stocks overvalued, S&P high as all hell, but why? Seems like when stocks are high like this a recession follows
>Savings are low, usually means recession
Dunno why people on benefits complain about other people taking their benefits.
Its literally the arguement at the minimum level of welfare and standard of living.
People who argue this have either already accepted they are not willing to get anything more than the minimum benefits available and get a better life for themselves or do not realise that they are at the bottom of the ladder fighting for scraps.
Its kind of sad.
Think of it this way.
If people cared about the future and future generations then they can secure that future by investing today.
Investing $10,000 today with 5% average interest growth.
In 100 years that is $1.3m (assuming no inflation). It also assumes no further investment which would increase returns.
Investing $10,000 every year for 100 years with 5% growth on reinvestment each year and 2% inflation you would result in a today value of $3.78m
If after 100 years for the next 100 years you then invested $50,000 a year at the same level of growth and investment you would have $86m in todays money.
All this started with $10,000 a year for the first 100 years and $50,000 for the next 100 with a relatively realistic return and inflation %.
Obviously people do not care but they will be dead but to go from $10,000 a year to a lump sum of $86.7m is pretty sweet if you have long term plans.
At least that may give you an insight as to how and why the rich of today are in that position.
>implying i didn't get ready for this years ago
topkek leafbro
>government debt didn't cause the last recession. Its not what is going to cause this on either.
In your opinion, what will cause it?
Interesting points, I particularly like the one about real estate prices.
And every since that shitty jobs report 2 weeks ago stocks have been losing every day. Feels like it could go off the cliff any day now.
What are you talking about? so you bought gold a yeae ago???
Eight years of King Nig and we've only recovered from 2008 on paper.
Our unemployment rate didn't normalize from people getting their jobs back, they were forced to take shitty work or stop working entirely.
People have no confidence in the effectiveness of our politics, no trust in our banks, and they know we're only limping along with the weight of the world on our back.
Europe is even worse off than us and the Brexit will tip the dominoes that end the EU (good riddance, but painful in the short-term). Japan is as stagnant as they've been for the last twenty years. The Chinese are looking over the edge of their own cliff and trying to convince themselves gravity doesn't exist. Russia is suffering from our sanctions and oil boom, the Middle East is collapsing in slow motion.
The entire system is a house of cards glued together and left out in a thunderstorm.
I'd bet anything the (((powers that be))) are using all of their might to bind it together until November.
We can only pray that the pendulum swings.
I don't know what to do, honestly. I thought about buying gold but I have zero experience or knowledge in commodities. It also feels like it's too late to jump on the Gold Wagon.
No idea, family. I have money to invest but I'm too hesitant.
economic collapse within 8-12 months i say, and you can greatly profit from that?
no, years ago.
>government debt didn't cause the last recession.
That wasn't his point either.
The US Government under the Bush Administration had a vision of housing low income families / creating a housing bubble to stimulate the economy. Either one depending on who you trust, Bush or Krugman.
Through government-sponsored mortgage enterprise (Freddie mac and Fannie Mae), the government enabled banks to give subprime mortgage loans to low-income families. The problem is that once they stopped financing the loans, and the US still had an excess inventory of houses, the real estate market fell, and the low-income families could not refinance their loans, and had no possible way of paying it back.
Because this massive private debt was sold to banks as securities around the world, the real estate bubble hit the global very hard.
Maybe I was too bold.
Before a recession it is impossible to predict what will cause it. You can guess but you are no more likely to be correct than anyone else. They seem to be different every time (oil shock in the 70s, fed induced in the 80s, tech bubble early 00s, mortgage burst of 2008)
Now, government debt is usually viewed as the safest and most secure thing in an economy. If you look at a graph of US Bond prices, they barely flinch during a recession or stock market correction. If US, Canadian, Swedish etc. government debt is no longer secure, I think the world is in a nuclear holocaust or something and recession is the least of our worry.
That being said debt can be a long term problem for growth and ability of an economy to function healthily and operate, maybe not to cause a recession tho per se.
This guy has some good reasons
Dont jump into gold if you dont know what you re doing. price might go down dramatically and unless you have trading expirience you will sell at a loss
> in 1950, 1 oz of gold could buy you a really nice suit. in 2016, it buys you a really nice suit.
Totally meaningless statement. Commodities in particular are unpredictable, and this includes gold. When looking at potential investments, you want to predict what kind of return you can expect. With gold this is highly variable in relation to other securities.
So, I don't have access to insider information (just a disclosure), but it is my opinion that a recession is coming soon. I've said 6-24 months, but I think it'll be on the shorter end of that range. Therefore I'd suggest a move to a more bond-heavy (particularly UST) portfolio. I think a recession is coming for the following reasons: the economy is cyclical and recessions usually happen every 4-6 years (we're close to 8 years now), world factors (economies in China, Japan, and several European countries are slowed a bit and the European Union might be in some shit with the UK setting a trend of leaving), and the seemingly exponential rise in subprime auto loans being given out. I think that subprime autos will be the bubble that'll hurt us. I'd recommend investing predominantly in UST, because they may give you a relatively low return, but 1) you'll benefit from the "flight to quality" as investors rush to the UST as it's a safe investment, and 2) you won't lose out like you might with equities.
So, I'm not a trader, so I follow the market less than I did in college when I worked for a fixed income fund, but I do keep up with it some. Best of luck.
Not really, the government loaned the finance and auto industries money, which they then paid back.
The government fiddling argument is true to a degree. I would say the government creating an environment where lenders would be more likely to lend to subprime borrowers was 1/3 causes for 2008. However, we aren't falling from any greater height.
At what price if you don't me asking?
I gambled on double leveraged silver and lets just say lost lots of money