What percent chance do you think trump has of winning the presidency?

What percent chance do you think trump has of winning the presidency?

~15%

And that's only if Hillary explodes somehow.

35% at very best. I don't see us winning this one.

100% fuck off shills.

95%

trump will absolutely demolish her at the debates

15-20%

As much as I'd love to see an outsider and non-puppet get in there, it's close to 0. He was too reckless in giving the (((media))) "racist/bigoted soundbites" and now his appeal among non-whites and non-males is probably insurmountable.

He'll run unopposed come november.

...

50% either he wins or he doesn't.

After Orlando and the liberal reaction to it, 60%-70%

I guess every boxing match just has 50% odds on each boxer, since they either win or don't.

>being this deluted
you are not even trying

Trump's reaction was the embarrassment/disappointment.

You mean the overwhelming bi-partisan negative reaction people have had to Trump's statements?

Is this from that DNC report?

Yes and today you have a 50% chance of losing your virginity, since you either lose it or you don't, newfag.

1000%. The polls are rigged to make it look like Trump is sliding but they always get way more liberal voters then conservative and undecided voters. Not only that, but the DNC is basically out of weapons against Trump and he hasn't even started shitting on Hillary yet.

It's pretty low.

Kind of sucks though.

...

Did you watch the republican debate?
Have you ever seen Hillary debate?

In order for Trump to win, he's going to have to take votes from Clinton. No matter if he crushes her in debates (I don't think he can), no matter if she's indicted for some criminal act, no matter if she's filmed eating dead babies and sucking baboon dick at high fucking noon on the steps of the Supreme Court, her voters will not change their vote from hwr to him.

Believe me, I really dislike The Cunt, but I think her voters outnumber Trump's voters and he will lose. It galls me how stupid and obstinate people are but that's the way I see it.

What are you cuck shills on about?
The poll that dropped today puts over half of Americans agreeing on the Muslim ban.
That number will only grow as the left continues to ignore the problem and focuses on attacking the freedom of law abiding citizens instead.

Yeah she's going to destroy him.

>mexican intellectuals

Trump will win
Check em

Giving odds now is meaningless because it is too early.

Come back and ask this question after one of the debates.

>TRUMPED
kek

He's got a very good chance

5% to 8%

>doesn't think he won't crush her in the debates

This will probably happen a lot

maybe. and maybe she doesnt live 1 full year after becoming president. who knows what the future holds

>Hillary gets indicted/goes to jail
100%
>Hillary doesn't
0%

post yfw Melania asks for a divorce after Trump loses the election.

This is the woman who has been an insider in american politicals for years, for fucks sake she's the wife of a former president. But sh'e anti-establishment because she has a vagina apparently.
No one can take that argument seriously. The only reason she won is because Bernie is a cuck.

50-50

Brits vote to exit Europe
Wikileaks find Clinton's missing emails
FBI indicts Clinton

>Did you watch the republican debate?

Yes, and Trump is inept and childish.

Calling names and talking over people may have worked for the er...special Republican audience, but it won't work in a major National debate.

Trump will have to up his game and get intelligent or forget about it.

Theres 5 months until the vote, people will be bored of all the attacks by then

Then what? Biden or Sanders or Warren runs in her place, all of whom are more favorable than she is.

5%, the reptilian jews aren't going to let it happen

No chance he even gets close.
I rather see republicans support hillary.

So in other words, you haven't watched a republican debate recently. Go fuck yourself with a wooden spoon shill

Yeah maybe in Europe, America respects power and confidence. Talking down to Bush and all of these Wall St shills is way more respectable then being a beta.

50%

I think if it ever actually gets close theyll kill him though.

While I believe there is a silent majority that supports Trump despite all the media hate.

I am fairly sure Hillary is going to use voting fraud to win as she likely did with Bernie. Unless she is actually exposed by the FBI or by Putin giving out her deleted e-mails I don't think he has much of a chance of winning.

80% i'd say

About 1/20 people Ive been talking to dont agree with his comments after Orlando. Anecdotal but whatever.

MSM isnt reflecting the American public imo.

One of the co-founders of Wikileaks has threatened to sue her as well. And I also heard that the lead directors of both the CIA and FBI put their support behind Trump, although I haven't seen a link confirming the latter though.

50/50

I'd say about 10% chance.

I don't see Trump ever pulling ahead of Hillary in polls again. Barring an indictment or a Rubio level meltdown at a debate.

Once trump gets the nom it will completely change. He then has the RNC backing him, these people have been campaigning for decades and know how to get it done. Hillary is an extremely flawed candidate and once the republicans have officially chosen him as their guy they will obliterate her on his behalf

I seriously hope Hillary is put down before she gets in office. Considering how her foreign policy is, I would see us in WW3 with Russia months into her presidency.

66% now

88% in October

About the same chance I have of getting dubs

>At the end of the second act, nearly all movies follow the model where some unsolvable problem rears its head. The audience must feel that the protagonist can’t escape this problem. We know the movie is fiction, but we still feel the emotions of the actors. We love the feeling of the third act because it reminds us of our own unsolvable problems. The main difference is that the movie hero finds a way to solve the unsolvable. That solution is what makes it a movie. The audience needs to feel the third act tension followed by an unexpected solution in order to get the chemical rush of movie enjoyment

>believing the polls

they want to make us feel behind every step of the way

stay strong

vote trump

Trump had to run some hard right rhetoric to hoover up the Paultards, Poltards, "outside right" crowd.

About the only thing he has stuck to is the Mexico Wall. He's already backstabbed the NRA and watered down the Muslim ban.

Trump is running against the entire media + Democrat party, on top of that he comes across as an unpleasant individual you would not want to share a beer with. He probably has early stages of Alzheimers and has multiple personality disorders.

The Republican party doesn't think he can win, these people want to have many more years "service" at the public and expense, they don't want to be associated with a controversial loser. Romney was a loser too, but at least he was safe and boring.

Honestly can't tell right now. It depends on whether or not Trump's current slump is temporary or if he Goldwaters and stays stuck at around 40% for the rest of the year.

Scott Adams thinks that Trump has something up his sleeve, but while he's been mostly on-point this cycle, his last prediction was basically "my gut says so"-tier.

Knowing who Trump's VP is will probably help clear up the probability situation a lot prior to the debates.

Bernie had every chance to beat her. All he had to do was bring up her shitty record, her lies, her emails, everything negative about her.

That's literally all he had to do. He was promising the niggers, the jews, the Native Americans, and every other minority everything they wanted. All he had to do was go on the offensive against her.

But he didnt. The moment he said "forget about the damn emails!" Was when he lost. It showed he supported her the entire time, and was probably only there to make her look younger in comparison.

Like 20%. That factors in the possibility of Hilary getting arrested too. Without that possibility it would be like 10% or less.

He's been gearing up, memorizing his speeches, etc. I am hyped for the debates.

20 %

at a push

Are people seriously upset that he said some fucking mild shit and basically told the truth about the situation...?

Really makes you think

>Brits vote to exit Europe
Good luck with that. I only want what's best for Britain, and that decision is up to them.

>Wikileaks find Clinton's missing emails
No faith in Wikileaks. If they have anything they better drop it soon. Also, this will not change the minds of Shrillary voters. It +may+ knock her out of the election if it's serious enough.

>FBI indicts Clinton
Maybe. The current thinking is that whatever findings the Feebs have will be turned over to the AG, for Lynch to decide on whether or not to indict. How do you think that will play out?

you just don't want to pay for the wall, Juan.

>Trump will never be president says increasingly nervous liberal for the 487 time this year.

t. MSM

If he can get through this wave of propaganda relatively unscathed, about 70%. If the media manages to bury him before July, which it looks like they're doing quite well, then about 5% pending only a Hillary indictment.

>which it looks like they're doing quite well
wut

I don't know. The Globalists are willing to sacrifice MP's in Britain to ensure it remains. I can't even fathom what the last resort will be if Trump gets in the lead.

The conventions haven't even started and we have chatter of replacing the presumptive nominees in both parties.

Despite shilling, I say 50/50

I'd like to believe Americans aren't dumb enough to elect Hillary

>Alzheimer's
>personality disorder

This makes him far more appealing for some reason

All the normies are buying the narrative about his speech being an absolute disgrace. Its putting off on the fence voters. His support is fine now but his chances of picking up future support are shaky with both parties and the media sabotaging everything he does.

I have little faith in the undecided American electorate opening a youtube video and listening to one of his forty minute speech. They'll likely vote for whoever they saw on tv, in this case Hillary. Trump needs to hit her hard and hit her soon

People in here have been overtly confident into Trump's abilities. The guy basically lucked himself into current position and it's luck that will let him win the presidency.

Reminder that before the NH primary or so, most of the establishment candidates were attacking each-other instead of all going hard on Trump. That win there is basically what kickstarted his whole momentum, and after that it was just a matter of lucky delegate math until he hit north-east (where he is super-popular).

If the establishment cucks rallied around one or two candidates (Rubio or Kasich) and if they would've beat him in NH, it would've been over. South Carolina would've become competitive, MAYBE he would've won Nevada, on Super Tuesday, Rubio could clinch Virginia and Cruz Arkansas and then the ball would've rolled with Trump winning less and less states. He would still win big in north-east but the opposition would be leveled against him fairly. And it would've been a brokered convention.


Remember New Hampshire folks, that's where they lost. Chris Christie pounding on Rubio in that debate is the most significant moment of this entire election.

>I'd like to believe

I thought you people were red pilled.

Let me have some optimism, fag

We live in an age of social media. The truth will come out about her in some way or another. Novembers close but theres time. I say he wins by 60%

Tree fiddy

90%, and that's being conservative. Hillary has no fucking chance. Not even a Trump supporter, but it's so obvious.

Trump is Trump,
he can be nothing else,
and that's why he is 100% losing the elections.
He can't adapt.

>Whites become 50% of the US citizens
>Guns are totally banned
>Britain and others fail to leave the EU
>Hillary wins

Am I missing anything?

>lucked himself into current position
not completely. He's still very skilled at dominating media cycles and setting the tone of the campaign. Anti-establishment wasn't even a thing before he showed up

>if the cucks rallied around a candidate
oh god not this meme again

>Christie pounding Rubio is the most significant moment
agreed

He will win then killed, obongo will remain in power because of martial law.

Zero.
There are just a handfull of Hillar supporters but a billion of Trump haters.

Wrong pic.

Faggot%

I'll justify myself a little. Right now both candidates have less than 50% approval ratings. The difference is the people who dislike Hillary are not going to change their minds because everything they hate her for is absolutely true. She's clearly a liar, a cunt, and most likely a murderer.

The media has been hitting Trump with such unprecedented levels of hate that his supporters are jaded to all of it. Some of it's true, but a huge portion of it is just making headlines with no factual backbone. All he has to do is keep showcasing the media's outright lies and people will get it; the transition from disgust to love is easier than you think.

30%

I say about 20% (according to the betting markets) chance.

Economy is doing fine, Obama's approval + favorables are up, Trump's unapprovals going up, and Hillary's approvals are going up surprisingly. Polls have consistently shown him down against Hillary.

Unless the economy crashes in the next few months Hillary should start writing her inaugural speech.

Trump should have DEMOLISHED Hillary thanks to the IG report. Instead he attacks a judge based on his ethnicity and doubles, triples, and quadrupled downs on it.

It could be close but it'll be very difficult for Trump to win. I expect him to do something totally more outrageous like call Hillary an outright bitch by the end of the election season.

I'm inclined to agree. I hope I'm wrong but I think he's blown it. There's even polls that have come out with the question of whether they thought Hillary or Trump handled the aftermath of Orlando better. Hillary won comfortably. So much of Trump's strategy hinges upon making Hillary look ineffective and wrong on the whole Muslim question but these poll results would make one believe he isn't succeeding. And he should have gotten a sizable bump after Orlando.

Fuck off Dick Morris or Karl Rove on general election eve 2012.

I think about 20% but then again I never thought he could have won the nomination.

Trump is no longer in the primaries.

The difference between the polls in the primaries and in the general is that hillary has CONSISTENTLY lead Trump in the general.

Trump CONSISTENTLY lead his competitors throughout the primary. Anyone who said he wasn't going to win the nomination was talking out of their ass.

>Anyone who said he wasn't going to win the nomination was talking out of their ass.
I'm talking about before he was winning I never thought he had a chance.

Let me offer you a different perspective as somebody who dislikes both Hillary and Trump. I actually dislike them for much of the same reasons, the main reason being they're both running for themselves. Nothing they say means anything to me because they only say what they think we'll appeal to the most people.

While it's safe to assume that Hillary is running for money and power, Trump just makes it obvious. He's absolutely obsessed with his own money, power and fame. The presidency to him is just the ultimate trophy to hang on his mantle and he'll say whatever he can to get it. There's no telling what he'll actually do when he has it. But the things he's promising are not feasible. He's not going to build a wall. He's not going to deport all the illegals. He's not going to ban Muslims. The president doesn't have that much power.

Trump doesn't give a shit either way. He'll happily lie to the public. He'll promise to protect social security and then tell Paul Ryan behind closed doors that he'll sign a bill to end it as long as they help him win. He'll be a puppet to the worst congress in history.

And I can write a report on everything that's wrong with Hillary, but everything that's bad about Hillary is worse about Trump.

141 2/3% chance of him winning the election.

85-99%

Zero

He's just playing a cartoon villain to help Clinton win the presidency.

I don't want to give a percentage but it's less than 30. In past elections, when I talk to the older folks, my parents and their friends, the people I work for, my downstairs neighbors, etc., sentiments were pretty basic. The liberals were going democrat, and the conservatives were going republican.

Now it's a lot more iffy. The liberals are absolutely apalled at the idea, of course, whereas the conservatives are split. Half are also apalled at the idea and considering Hilary as much as they hate it. The other half are either begrudgingly accepting him as the lesser of two evils or their only hope. There are some true Trump fans here and there, but far and between.

When I see people this unsure about voting in the way they have for literal decades, it's very unlikely Trump has a silent minority lying in wait to spring out and be heard