Are there any films that deals with this concept?

Are there any films that deals with this concept?

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stayorswitch.com/
marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/
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you always switch

men who stare at goats

I gotchu OP

An inconvenient truth

Its about stupid people who are unable to grasp a simple concept

21

If a door is opened its a 50-50, no point switching

Not really. A visual Novel/Game did it with about 30 lockers this year!

No it isn't. Think of it this way.

On your initial guess you have a 1/3 chance of picking the car and a 2/3 chance of picking a goat. When the goat is shown the only way you will have gotten the car is if you chose it initially, which is a 1/3 chance. If you chose a goat initially, the only way of winning is by switching since you'll obviously switch to the car, and not the 2nd goat. You have a 2/3 chance of choosing a goat which means a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch.

what, surely you have an equal chance at moving from the car to the 2nd goat as you do moving from the goat to car?

No, because in the first place you had more of a chance of getting a goat than a car.

ahh yeah i get it now... interesting

Reddit math

Hold on, didn't explain it well. Think of it as: when the first "incorrect" door is opened, you dodged a bullet, so to speak. The odds of doing it twice (as opposed to switching doors and, in essence, re-starting the gamble) are double.
Trust me, I didn't believe it either until I tested it myself and found that switching is exactly twice as more like to be correct that staying on the same original door.

I don't get why people bother to seriously respond to posts like this.

This thread is posted on Sup Forums, Sup Forums, /sci/, and Sup Forums all the time and diagrams and thought experiments demonstrating why switching is better are posted in every one of them. If you go to the wikipedia page it will be explained to you, or you could look at one of the gazillion YouTube explanations if you're illiterate. I feel like if they haven't gotten it by now they never will. They're either actually retarded or they just do it for the (you)s.

It's just to trigger autists like you.

But thats purely theoretical, its disconnected from reality. Its like saying if you flipped a coin 1000 times that it would land on heads 500 times and tails 500 times.
Its pure conjecture.

stayorswitch.com/

Winrar.

Even most of Sup Forums will understand the switch. Sup Forums is the dumbest board on Sup Forums

more like Sup Forums is full of pseuds who like to show off their intellect by replying to every bait post saying it's 50-50

once the door is opened to reveal goat #1 though the situation has changed,

you are not on a 1/3 - 2/3 deal anymore you are on a 50:50 its not the same scenario it was when you picked the 1/3

The best way to think of it is not 3 doors, but 100. Say you pick 1 door out of 100. They open 98 other doors, all of which are goats. Do you swap to the last unopened door, or stick with your original choice?

Of course you fucking switch.

why? what if it turns out you picked the car?

Then you are fucking unlucky.

...

What concept?
Third grade logic?

this was in an episode of brooklyn nine nine

I don't understand. Can you explain it to me?

It isn't. It has been rigorously tested. Switching doubles your chances of winning. Google "Monty Haul Problem" for a detailed explanation.

The problem is you are only likely to be on a gameshow once, so switching or sticking are the same for that one instance.

nah

>think of it this way
>numbers numbers numbers
That's not the way to get a person who doesn't understand this to understand it

Seems legit.
So 6/20 times I got the car on my first pick for a cool 30% as opposed to the 33% theoretical odds. I still feel I'm hitting a lot higher than I should when switching doe. Then again, 20 games.

>At my mom's

>Reading this thing called a newspaper

>Was in Parade magazine


marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/

obligatory "I prefer the goat" post
haha we have fun here

The very simple fact that you need to understand in this setup is that the host will ALWAYS remove a "bad" result. There's no randomness to his decision, and that is why you switch. If it was random, then switching doesn't matter.

Think of it like this guys:

There are a million doors, and only one of them has a car, the rest of them have goats. You pick one at random, and the host opens the remaining 999,998 doors to reveal they all have goats behind them, leaving both the door you picked and a door you didn't pick closed.

It's better to switch in this situation, because what are the odds that you happened to pick the door that has the car in it out of a million doors? It's more likely the one you didn't pick that the host singled out is the correct one.

You're totally right, that shit isn't helpful for stupid people who can't comprehend numbers.

But this is a concept which involves numbers, and that's really the simplest way to describe it without using pictures.

Only if the host knows where the goat is

>3rd grade fractions make my head hurt

American education, everyone.

A better way to phrase it is through extremes. Suppose there are 1,000,000 doors. You choose 1 door so clearly you had no fucking real chance of being right. Then someone removes tells you the 999,998 doors that had nothing behind them. You then have one door that survived this selection process singled out by this omniscient man or the door you shittily chose out 1,000,000 doors. You should obviously switch.

It would still be 50/50 if there wasn't a third variable of the person picking the door to open for you. Because a person who already knows where the car is chooses the door that is where it turns from 50/50 to 66/33

This

it is a way to separate the mongoloids from the normals

>or they just do it for the (you)s.
Take a wild guess.

zero time dilemma sucked

The monty hall problem is psychological bullshit
The only reason the probability is 1/3 to 2/3 is because the question is "stay or switch", which is relative to your first decision. If the exact same events happened but the question was "pick a door again" the probability would be 50/50, since your first decision doesn't matter because no matter what you choose the outcome is always the same (one goat door is eliminated). The first decision is empirically useless EXCEPT the fact that "stay or switch" relies on it having happened

It was an enjoyable disappointment
aliens were a mistake

But those are totally different numbers, it doesn't apply here

The Dark Knight

What the hell are you talking about? What he says after isn't important, what is important is that the host picked a door after you had selected one the first time.

The host ALWAYS picks a door with a goat behind it. No matter what you pick, this outcome is the same - meaning your decision make no impact on the outcome and is statistically relevant

Your decision only becomes relevant when the question "stay or switch" is asked - because it's inherently tied to you having chosen a door already. THAT and ONLY THAT is what makes your first choice relevant in the statistical analysis of probability

Hey man, you're wrong

of course they do it for (You)s. The problem is that people cannot help but to respond because it makes them feel superior. So you get a feedback loop where everyone gets endorphins from pretending to be retarded.

Came for this. Love this movie for some reason