Reposting, because the thread moved on.
I only have a few points to make, lads. I don't claim to have any sort of super-secret insider knowledge, but the company I work for is heavily involved with image management for the Remain and Labour campaigns. We conduct bespoke polls, focus groups and ladder sessions on a regular basis, and several since early May.
We have nothing official, but from the data we have and some back-of-fag-packet mathematics, a few of us have got a pretty good consensus in private on the following with regards to turnout:
(All excluding postal votes and DKs)
If turnout is above 70%, Leave need to be at least 5% ahead in the polls to achieve 50% of the total.
If turnout is above 67.5%, Leave need to be at least 3% ahead in the polls to achieve 50% of the total.
If turnout is between 64-66%, Remain need to be 2%+ ahead in the polls to achieve 50% of the total.
If turnout is below 63.5%, Remain need to be approximately 5% or more ahead in the polls to achieve 50% of the total.
If turnout is below 61%, Remain need a 7%+ lead in the polls.
As for don't-knows, we reckon that they'll break 38-62 in favour of Remain, but that the number of DKs who actually vote will fall BELOW what is currently predicted by the polling averages. Postal votes however, according to a surprising majority of intelligence, are breaking around 44-56 in favour of Leave. (Please note that, for various reasons, we do not conduct postal voting surveys in London or Manchester.)
Make of this what you will.
Personally, (and I differ from my 2 colleagues in this by about 1.5-2% each way), I predict the overall turnout will exceed 66.2%, but not more than 67.9%.
Make of this what you will. I intend only to inform, not colour the debate in any way. (Irrelevant note: I'm voting Leave.)
Also, the real grey area is if turnout is more than 66%, but less than 67%. If that happens, the result could be decided by just a few thousand votes, with recounts incredibly likely.
