Too early to be thinking too hard about the electoral colleges (though the campaign should start firing up ads in swing states). The election will probably (but not neccesarily) be won based on voter turnout more than anything else.
Realistically the result hedges on a few things.
1) If the republicans FINALLY get in a fucking line and play nice after the convention.
2) How much shit about Clinton comes out, or hell, if she is indited.
3) The debates.
If the conservatives get their shit together, stop complaining, fund him, pull their strings, and get their media to back him then it should help him a lot .
Dem turnout won't match '08, probably won't match '12, and could actually be horrific depending on how unatractive Hillary is made out to be.
The debates will probably be the first time Trump can get his rhetoric out to people unfiltered by the media. People simply don't watch his press conferences, press releases, or look at any of the other relevant source material. Given their has been so much media manipulation so far, I'm genuinely excited to see how the debates go, most of all because of this although schlonging Hillary will also be nice.
Right now, with so many key events to come, it's simply too early to make judgements (as it is in most election cycles)
IMO Trump has a very real chance to win it, but only so much is in his direct control. Even if 1 and 2 work out in his favour, if he fucks the debates he's probably done. A bad showing will just reinforce all the negative preconceptions of which a lot have already been fostered.
All that said... MAGA bitch.
