Countries affected by the 2008 Financial Crisis

Countries affected by the 2008 Financial Crisis

Other urls found in this thread:

amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/0767923057/
globalfirepower.com/navy-ships.asp
youtube.com/watch?v=_AvNT3vyzr0
futurebattles.com/en/countries/ranking_naval_navies
futurebattles.com/en/countries/ranking_country_power_sea_power
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_055_destroyer
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

If you're not green, you're not white.

Don't remind me, things could have been much different here if that had not happened.

All those green countries are gonna be fucked when China crashes.

Green is the dollar while the other line is the rest of the world's currencies during the crash.

Thank God we have the currency standard.

the eternal pole, how does he keep getting away with it

alright, whats the time frame this time around? seriously? i've been hearing this fucking meme for literally decades.

Why was Botswana affected much more than the rest of Africa?

They were richer than their neighbors because muh diamonds

The curse of bordering the USA

Sorry pal.

It's still got a while to go, they can still manipulate currency and fake growth through dead end projects for another good 10 years maybe.

>Be rich from diamonds
>All the countries that buy into the diamond = love meme crash
>No one buys diamonds

This makes me sad.

Why do Chinks get so defensive when someone points out that their voodoo economic system literally cannot sustain itself indefinitely?

Just because Gordon Chang pops up every five years to proclaim China's imminent demise does not mean all predictions about problems ahead for China are inaccurate.

Personally, I'd put the beginning of China's problems either in 2020, when most of the baby boomers have retired and have taken most of their free capital out of the markets (significantly lowering the amount of capital available to Chinese enterprises) or when the next big conflagration breaks out in the Middle East (China can't survive as a manufacturing power without Middle East oil, so any disruption of oil supplies there are going to hit them particularly badly).

>alright, whats the time frame this time around?
It's an inevitability with the political structure. A capitalist economy is usually accompanied by democracy for one reason: you can axe leaders during a downturn, when the system inevitably busts.

This leads to the theory of 'performance legitimacy' for non-democratic countries, whether they're China or some MENA dictatorship. The dictators or totalitarians can only hold power so long as they increase prosperity in their countries, and as soon as things sour, that's when repression seeps in.

Eventually the system cracks. With capitalism, incomes eventually hit the "developing ceiling" of something like $12k USD per capita, and then citizens usually start demanding political representation. A powerful middle class is enough to topple aristocratic, monarchic, or authoritarian governments -- it's basically the rise of the merchant class.

You're right that China's revolution has been predicted for a long time, and you've heard it year after year, but that's because the evidence is quite expansive. There's endless literature about this in international politics. The CCP will be overthrown one day, it's all but guaranteed.

haha suck it, stupid first world :^)

nah dude, it's not being defensive, i'd just love a fucking straight answer then soon™.

it's getting to the point where its not even a prediction it's just guessing every fucking year and hoping it happens that year.

if someones going to make a prediction lets be accurate or not make it at all because it's getting my hopes up and letting me down.

cringe

Every time there is revolution in China tens of millions die. It wont happen again, and if the CPC is overthrown it will be relatively peaceful.

Every time there is a revolution anywhere, millions of people die. Do you think France just magically arrived at a republic after a thousand years of monarchy?

>what is the Russian revolution
literal retard

You should look up some Peter Zeihan videos about China on youtube. He points to three major problems with China:

1) A crippling dependency on Middle Eastern oil. This basically necessitates them being involved in Middle Eastern geopolitics even though they don't exactly have the capability of doing this. Up until now, they could just piggyback off the US since the US had similar interests in the region. Not so much anymore - the US has sufficient domestic oil production now and doesn't need to care about the Middle East anymore.

2) Terminal demography. Basically, there aren't enough young people in China to replenish the population, meaning that attempting to switch over to consumption-driven growth instead of export-driven growth is virtually impossible in practice at this point.

3) The Byzantine Chinese financial system. A series of increasingly obfuscated NPLs in China's state-owned banks could kick off something akin to the 2008 crisis but at a much larger scale.

The Russian revolution has literally nothing to do with the phenomenon I described you mouthbreather. Marx himself said that communism could only be achieved in industrialized countries, and Lenin and Trotsky decided "lol let's skip that" and go straight from agrarian to post-industrial. Millions died from forced relocation from rural areas to cities in order to skip the industrial step.

This has absolutely nothing to do with performance legitimacy and everything to do with an artificial political ideology being enforced by charismatic leaders. That's the opposite of the democratic-capitalist coupling.

Go to school.

dude, i am not invested enough to know all that shit. all i want to know is when it's coming crashing down. i'm just upset that every motherfucker tells me it's all coming down and nobody has been right so far. how am i supposed to take this shit seriously if nobodies been right yet?

George Friedman has an even more straightforward idea of China's collapse. In his view, the divide between the rich coastal cities and the poor interior provinces is irreconcilable. At present, a strong central government in Beijing has been able to hold the country together using an elaborate system of transfer payments that take capital from the coastal cities and put it into the pockets of peasants in the countryside. Slowing economic growth in the coastal cities means that these transfer payments are slowly making the uncompetitive globally, which will fuel resentment and seccessionist sentiment within cities like Hong Kong, Macau, and Shanghai. These cities will ultimately more closely align with foreign powers than with Beijing, and the Chinese state will fracture once again.

>weatherman predicts 66% chance of rain today
>it doesn't rain
>canuck gets assblasted
m8, the meteorologists base their predictions on past patterns of clouds, rain, hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, etc. their models are only as accurate as data gathered by doppler & other methods

Political history is the same deal. There are trends and events, and there are intelligent people trying to unfurl the knot, but it's not guaranteed. The problem here is that weather happens every day yet authoritarian regimes don't. There's fewer data points

link your economy to usa goy , it'll be so great, you'll get freedom and democracy

dude, at at least the weatherman has another day to make a prediction on the weather and we can see from his previous predictions his level of accuracy.

how many times has china crashed since these predictions came out?

don't use the weather as an analogy, that's horrifying.

usa will crash around 2020, china wont last 5 years after it

>amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/0767923057/
How intriguing

did you even read the last sentence of my post?

He's absolutely legendary

yeah i did, a weatherman is one person who makes probably makes 250 predictions a year and we can accurately gauge his efficacy with that.

how many historians and economist have predicted a economic collapse of china? not to mention meteorology is an actual science where economics is an art.

and your last sentence actually kills your argument because you state realistically that there aren't enough data points to make an accurate prediction, so wtf! how can you on one hand claim China will collapse and on the other hand claim there isn't enough data points?

my fucking head.

>China will collapse and on the other hand claim there isn't enough data points?
by looking at authoritarian systems that have collapsed, and the reasons why they have

the thing is, there's no timescale related to those. yet if 99% of authoritarian regimes collapse because citizens perceive that their lives are not being improved, you can get a good picture of why the CCP would fall.

that's called performance legitimacy. your country and mine don't have it, because we have faith in regime change. the moment Trudeau or Trump say "nah fuck it, I'm not passing the baton" is when we devolve to chimps

good proxy

I read the book but I'm not really convinced. He predicted Turkey and Poland would be major powers by 2100

Ah yes. The china collapse meme. Annnnnnny day now. Muh empty cities! Muh demographic crisis!
kek. It's funny to watch westerners squirm at their inevitable supplantation by Asia on the world stage. China isn't going anywhere. Get over it. Their economy will scale to the satndard of living of the tigers and they will easily rival the US as the premier world power in a new multipolar world order and there isn't a damn thing the United Shitskins of America can do about it.

your mother is a proxy for my dick

wanting some bought and paid for 'representative' parliament isn't actually desired by many people outside of the West. And we only prefer it due to two centuries of conditioning that this is the only way a country can be run.

but your arguments relies on the belief that all authoritarian regimes are cookie cutters of each other. this denies each nation of their individual traits. that's like saying Democracy works in America therefor Democracy will work in Afghanistan and so on. Authoritarian regimes have existed in the world for literally hundreds of years in the history of human kind. isn't it kind of goal post moving to say only the modern era counts now?

well in the end, i don't give a fuck. someone throw me a year that China will collapse. at this point im left with assuming every fucking year because nobody apparently knows anything.

It's not like Poland and Turkey are no-name countries. They were both great powers not that long ago in the grand scheme of things.

The geographic advantages that lead them to great power status in the past are still there.

>le Oswald Spengler
Maybe Australia's been conditioned in that way but the early 20th century USA was Teddy Roosevelt sticking his long dick down corporate monopolies and breaking trusts with his big stick.

With the rise of Google and Amazon I think we need another Teddy. But it certainly hasn't been 200 years.

sorry to disappoint, but when china is led badly it collapses 60-50 years, going by dynasty lifespan.

But led correctly they can number into the hundreds of years, current system is already much better than any previous dynasty

so at worst, maybe afew hundred years, at best maybe close to a thousand

How is China going to project power without a navy? Japan's navy dwarfs China's by a considerable margin, and even if China could build one, it wouldn't be able to move freely without Japan, Taiwan, Korea, the Phillipines, Indonesia, Russia, and even India giving their tacit consent.

dude, the Qing dynasty lasted 278 years. the PRC has lasted what? 80 years?

;^)

globalfirepower.com/navy-ships.asp

dude, what the fuck. look at wiki, China has 3 times the ships, double the number of aircrafts and 5 times their personnel.

i don't want to jump on China's cock but seriously it's on wiki and obvious as fuck.

Qing was badly led in the end, and was only miltarily successful at the start

Ming, Tang and Han dynasties lasted at least 300~ years, and this is without the modern technologies of today

If the party works, not much will change, the same is true with japan, taiwan , korea and even us, where successful parties have had long reigns, as opposed to the democrat-republican switches america has for example

>but your arguments relies on the belief that all authoritarian regimes are cookie cutters of each other
but they are? they use authority to pass political decisions, not consensus.

that's precisely related to the core matter at hand, when the mass of citizens realize that the political regime isn't improving their lives, they take matters into their own hands. democracy cleverly diffuses this by allowing politicians to become replaceable punching bags every 3-4 years with each of them coming in saying "hope! change we can believe in! drain the swamp!"

ultimately the economic prospects of both the democratic and the authoritarian system may not change, but the citizen's perception of who is at fault is diffused in the former.

>Authoritarian regimes have existed in the world for literally hundreds of years in the history of human kind. isn't it kind of goal post moving to say only the modern era counts now?
You're not wrong that they've existed for a long time, whether kingdoms or fascist countries or whatever. And the modern era counts just as much, with a lot of cases cropping up during the Arab Spring. Those people revolted because the MENA dictators weren't improving their lives, so they looked at different alternatives. Too bad those alternatives meant the Muslim Brotherhood and other shitty options.

>China has a lot of ships
>Therefore it's powerful
Wake me up when they have actual world-class destroyers and aircraft carriers.

it won't 'collapse'. This is just some burger fantasy.

More likely is that a demographic crunch will hit around the 2030s and growth will stagnate, or at least fall below 5% PA

youtube.com/watch?v=_AvNT3vyzr0

>How is China going to project power without a navy? Japan's navy dwarfs China's by a considerable margin, and even if China could build one, it wouldn't be able to move freely without Japan, Taiwan, Korea, the Phillipines, Indonesia, Russia, and even India giving their tacit consent.
for the land of the stupid, and the home of the fat

>>You're not wrong that they've existed for a long time, whether kingdoms or fascist countries or whatever. And the modern era counts just as much, with a lot of cases cropping up during the Arab Spring. Those people revolted because the MENA dictators weren't improving their lives, so they looked at different alternatives. Too bad those alternatives meant the Muslim Brotherhood and other shitty options.

yeah but democracy hasn't worked for them either. Libya was even arguably more stable with Qaddafi then it was as a quasi democracy that is incapable of governing properly.

>>that's precisely related to the core matter at hand, when the mass of citizens realize that the political regime isn't improving their lives, they take matters into their own hands. democracy cleverly diffuses this by allowing politicians to become replaceable punching bags every 3-4 years with each of them coming in saying "hope! change we can believe in! drain the swamp!"

dunno, im skeptical about this whole one size fits all mentality. im not going to say you are wrong, but i can't say for certain you are right. only time can answer this.

chinese dictators are improving their lives, and with your circus act due to trump right now their media is making a mockery of it

better navy links:

futurebattles.com/en/countries/ranking_naval_navies

futurebattles.com/en/countries/ranking_country_power_sea_power

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_055_destroyer

and they already have one carrier which is one more then japan. not that carriers actually matter imo. they seem to me to be only efficient at bullying poorer nations.

They're expanding their Navy and modernizing their military as a while rapidly. They are expected to have at least four carriers by the late 20s and state media said they plan to have at least 6.
Chinese like slavs don't give a fuck about democracy. It's a western meme that everyone around the world wants it and it's the West's job to nudge them towards it.

>It's a western meme that everyone around the world wants it and it's the West's job to nudge them towards it.
I don't want to nudge them, but I want their citizens to be prepared for it unlike MENA countries that just reverted to theocracy with the Muslim Brotherhood

Replacing one authoritarian government with another doesn't do anyone good. It just changes which internal group is favored and privileged

Authoritarianism isn't necessarily bad as long as it works for the betterment of the people. You can just as easily have a multiparty system where the parties basically form a consensus and relatively little changes when the power is swapped between them.

Says the country that has been buttfucked not once, but twice by a country full of fat retards on the other side of the world.

China's navy does not have global reach, no matter what memes the Iranians are filling your head with this week. They have a single barely-functional aircraft carrier, and a shitload of smaller non-capital ships.

Not even in service yet and absolutely pitiful by modern naval standards.

Yes, because Chinese state media has never mislead anyone about anything. You literally cannot build and crew six carriers in ten years without transitioning to a war economy, and it's doubtful whether China even has the capital to fund six whole carriers.

>prepared for it
they won't go for it unless there is a failure the level the Qing were going through in the 1900s

When the Qing failed, the KMT led them to try their hand at this dictatorial-democracy, when that failed due to corruption the CPC came about and tried their hand at legitimacy.

They had a "democractic" government for a time, but it was crushed.

>When the Qing failed, the KMT led them to try their hand at this dictatorial-democracy, when that failed due to corruption the CPC came about and tried their hand at legitimacy.
I find this example interesting since South Korea's government trended authoritarian from the 1940s to the 1960s. But as they were exposed (or pressured) by the USA they became more and more democratic.

Then again today, South Korea still has some batshit crazy characteristics

dude, it is already already launched. i don't know enough about military dick waving but from the wiki page it looks look it's equipped with modern weapons and radar.

1) It's not a destroyer, it's a cruiser.

2) Just because it's launched doesn't mean it's in service yet.

it's not about democracy, functionally speaking idealogies in asia don't work very well without a practical backing: it does'nt matter how much you espouse a system, if it does'nt bring results people won't believe it

the cpc knew this and immediately threw off alot of the damning policies of their hardline communist past, had they not done so i predict a similar situation to the arab spring may have happened

but either through democracy or authoritarianism, centralization will occur in most countries in asia

State media expresses the states intention diptard. They have two carriers done and a third in construction and another planned. Their GDP nominal is going to surpass the US in about 2023 like PPP did in 2014. GDP raises state budget thus military budget rises. Not hard to understand. I'm not even saying china is going to "le take over the world" or even surpass the US but they will certainly be a very major power. They already are economically and it won't even be a decade before they are no 2 militarily.

ofcourse it can't project power against usa, because in case of war it'll be a nuclear war and navies are useless in that
what i'm calling you a fat retard for is claiming japan has a bigger navy and that asian countries somehow limit Chinese naval capabilities

>a thread about geopolitics without europeans
>only canucks, singaporeans, australians, iraqis, and americans having civil discussion
my favorite thread on Sup Forums right now

holy fuck i don't even know what the difference between a destroyer and cruiser is and i don't give a fuck. it's a god damned ship. the point im getting at is that compared to japans navy China is catching up and is numerically superior. not to mention that all of japan and it's sea is in range of China's land based IRBM's while japan has NONE because it isn't allowed to have them.

their sleeping m8

Well. Without Sup Forumstard from america as well

>tfw invested in Eastern Poland