Democratic chances of winning the White House remain strong, according to a closely followed economic election model.
Moody's Analytics is forecasting that Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, will easily win the presidency in November over Republican Donald Trump, the June forecast predicts.
The latest model shows for the fourth straight month that the Democratic nominee will win 332 electoral votes, compared with 206 for the Republican nominee. The model chooses a party, not a candidate, to win.
"The closer we come to election day, the more that two-year change is based in history and less on our economic forecasts," said Dan White, a Moody's economist who oversees the monthly model.
"With just over four months left to election day, the chances of an economic forecast error distorting the results are fading," he said.
538 also predicted it would be a contested convention, as I recall.
How'd that turn out?
Logan Foster
Crystal ball said he would win the presidency, but not the nom
No one knows what they're doing
Sebastian Harris
I agree completely.
I mean there's absolutely no way that he is going to run for president. I mean really, that guy from the apprentice? You really think the guy from the apprentice is SERIOUS about running? this is all just a joke or a publicity stunt
Blake Wilson
These forecasts don't take into account how an FBI indictment (and if suppressed, high level officials going public) is almost guaranteed now.
Justin Watson
But then the nomination would go to Bernie, and he's always polled better against Trump than Clinton.
Alexander Nelson
RealClearPolitics is now the only remaining election prediction site that hasn't allowed bias to cloud their judgment.
>The model chooses a party, not a candidate, to win. and this is why there is a very good chance they are wrong.
Jaxon Moore
>GA and AZ are tossups wat?
Jeremiah Long
THIS IS THE END OF DONALD TRUMP
Luke Hill
>Nate Shillver said Trump had a 5% chance of winning the nomination >Now says he has a 20% chance of winning the presidency
What method is Nate Silver gonna use to kill himself on November 9th? One that takes into account state polls, national polls, and endorsements? :^)
Jackson Robinson
civil war will erupt if anyone but trumps wins
there will be riots if trump wins
so sayeth neetstrodamus
Noah Moore
Shill please.
John Martin
In OP's post, Nate Silver predicted both those states would go Blue
Robert Lee
This is all purely psychological. Tell the opposition they're going to lose until they believe it. Once they believe it it becomes fact.
Wyatt Gomez
Nate silver thinks that just because blacks poll 91-1 in favor of clinton, that 100% of them will turn out to vote in the election.
Nolan Reed
this
Jackson Martinez
>Listening to people who have been wrong about Trump the entire time lol
Carter King
>thinking they'd let BS be the candidate
Aiden Sanders
>people actually believe this
Why?
Andrew Perry
>Georgia and NC are in play
Carpetbaggers need to go.
Hunter Ramirez
The magic conch shell also told me hillary would win
Lucas Price
I think Sanders could beat Trump. Most people see Trump as a huge unlikeable asshole, which only works because Clinton is an equally huge huge cunt.
Sanders, while foolish, is a pretty nice guy
Jason Harris
>implying it won't make Trump's fiercely loyal voter base even more likely to come out and vote on election day
Levi King
Just like they predicted the real estate loans crash in 2007? It's just too early, let's wait for the debates
John Gray
Good. I hope Hilldog thinks she has an easy stroll. She's in for a rude fucking awakening come election night.
Jonathan Young
I predict 500+ for Dems desu. Minus 100 for each of following: Brexit EU disintegration Massive terrorism incident on US Clinton indictment (and Biden running) Clinton indictment, pardoned and still running
Matthew Perry
Nobody thinks he has a fucking chance anymore. So stop reinforcing the point that we already accept.
Lincoln Gonzalez
Nate Silver will "predict" whatever is good for Jews.
Lucas Nguyen
>538
People still pay attention to Nate Bronze?
Parker Long
>increasingly nervous men develop new branch of math to formulate scenarios in which trump doesn’t win nomination
Leo Morris
Nate Aluminium can still convince 24-hour news networks that he isn't complete shit; that doesn't mean people pay attention to him.
Jason Howard
>Nate Bronze >Nate Aluminum
my sides
Jaxon King
REEEEEE THE ONLY POLLS ALLOWED HERE IN THE DONALD SAFE SPACE ARE FROM RASMUSSEN Anything that even hints at him not doing so great is Shill4Hill .05 has been deposited in your account archive.4plebs.org/pol/search/text/rasmussen/
